Preview The race to 15 wins, and is 15 wins enough.

[_007_]

Our season has been cooked by the losses to Sydney, Melbourne and Collingwood. All games we should have won. Brisbane loss was gross but we were never in it other than 10 mins in the 2nd quarter.

 

[s_wd6]

Our season has been cooked by the losses to Sydney, Melbourne and Collingwood. All games we should have won. Brisbane loss was gross but we were never in it other than 10 mins in the 2nd quarter.

Melbourne game flattered us. Really it’s the two Sydney games.

 

[_007_]

Melbourne game flattered us. Really it’s the two Sydney games.

Yes also the second Sydney game but by that time Sydney weren't as shit as they had been imo.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

1997, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2021, 2024. Don't worry! We've been in the situation a few time before and...oh wait...

The odds of us losing the last six final round games that we needed to win to make finals was 1 in 64.

Losing seven in a row is 1 in 128.

I think on the truest balance of probabilities that we are well overdue to win one of these.

 

[freo84]

The odds of us losing the last six final round games that we needed to win to make finals was 1 in 64.

Losing seven in a row is 1 in 128.

I think on the truest balance of probabilities that we are well overdue to win one of these.

 

[ignoramus]

The odds of us losing the last six final round games that we needed to win to make finals was 1 in 64.

Losing seven in a row is 1 in 128.

I think on the truest balance of probabilities that we are well overdue to win one of these.

That’s not how probability works?

 

[gungho]

So, I checked out the ladder and,

1. We need to beat the bulldogs.
2 GWS (who are playing St Kilda) need to lose. No Hogan for GWS. Maybe.
3 Melbourne need to beat Collingwood. Possible not probable.


The result of the Hawks and Brissie game doesn't really effect us and there is a very slim chance that Gold Coast loses twice (to Port and Essendon) so probably also has no effect on us. I reckon the best we can do is 5th or 6th. We need either Collingwood or GWS to lose.

I actually think it's insane that we might have 16 wins by Monday and finish 7th.

 

[gungho]

Ok guys hear me out.

What if:
We beat the bulldogs. GWS lose to the Saints, Pies lose to Melbourne, and Gold Coast lose twice. We finish fourth.

Now, this is where it gets really interesting. We will play Adelaide in the first qualifying final who legitimately might tank this game to give Rankine (who is suspended for 4 matches) a chance of playing in the grand final. We win the game and then have a home prelim at Optus.

 

[Ripper]

Ok guys hear me out.

What if:
We beat the bulldogs. GWS lose to the Saints, Pies lose to Melbourne, and Gold Coast lose twice. We finish fourth.

Now, this is where it gets really interesting. We will play Adelaide in the first qualifying final who legitimately might tank this game to give Rankine (who is suspended for 4 matches) a chance of playing in the grand final. We win the game and then have a home prelim at Optus.

That would be KARMA +

 

[Farrand]

The odds of us losing the last six final round games that we needed to win to make finals was 1 in 64.

Losing seven in a row is 1 in 128.

I think on the truest balance of probabilities that we are well overdue to win one of these.

God I wish those odds were available now...

But I'm leaning on the side of we're going to do this. In it to win it! Come on, boys!!!

 

[Purpleheart_56]

15 wins is enough for anybody but Dockers...

 

[Piggy Smalls]

That’s not how probability works?

There was a fair bit of tongue in cheek there. Clearly they weren't all coin flip games and I'm not sure if we won one in there somewhere along the line.
But the odds of something with 2 variables landing on the same one 7 times in a row is 1 in 128.

 

[Pivot Piece]

There was a fair bit of tongue in cheek there. Clearly they weren't all coin flip games and I'm not sure if we won one in there somewhere along the line.
But the odds of something with 2 variables landing on the same one 7 times in a row is 1 in 128.

I hope you don’t play roulette

 

[eastfreo75]

Ok guys hear me out.

What if:
We beat the bulldogs. GWS lose to the Saints, Pies lose to Melbourne, and Gold Coast lose twice. We finish fourth.

Now, this is where it gets really interesting. We will play Adelaide in the first qualifying final who legitimately might tank this game to give Rankine (who is suspended for 4 matches) a chance of playing in the grand final. We win the game and then have a home prelim at Optus.

Google Image Result for https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/853388636305444865/FJHkLG-__400x400.jpg

 

[Freofalcon]

Ok guys hear me out.

What if:
We beat the bulldogs. GWS lose to the Saints, Pies lose to Melbourne, and Gold Coast lose twice. We finish fourth.

Now, this is where it gets really interesting. We will play Adelaide in the first qualifying final who legitimately might tank this game to give Rankine (who is suspended for 4 matches) a chance of playing in the grand final. We win the game and then have a home prelim at Optus.

Username is very appropriate

 

[Paracleet]

Ok guys hear me out.

What if:
We beat the bulldogs. GWS lose to the Saints, Pies lose to Melbourne, and Gold Coast lose twice. We finish fourth.

Now, this is where it gets really interesting. We will play Adelaide in the first qualifying final who legitimately might tank this game to give Rankine (who is suspended for 4 matches) a chance of playing in the grand final. We win the game and then have a home prelim at Optus.

I mean I know Adelaide are from Adelaide, but seriously...

 

[Fat Nyfe]

I still believe we can win Sunday, but the probably reality is now barracking for Essendon against the Suns to make finals. Pain

 

[gungho]

Home final with a win. Yeah boi

 

[Randomizor]

So is there still people on here that think percentage doesn’t matter, or have we dispelled with that utter nonsense?

 

[Dockeroo]

Win and play a home final - it’s nicely in our hands now.
A more experienced team against the bulldogs who have 10 guys with less than 50 games.
Simply no excuses this time.

 

[Purple Suit]

So is there still people on here that think percentage doesn’t matter, or have we dispelled with that utter nonsense?

Win tomorrow and Bulldogs will miss the finals with a percentage of around 140.

 

[StingBitten]

Win tomorrow and Bulldogs will miss the finals with a percentage of around 140.

Zing! Perfect counterargument.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Win tomorrow and Bulldogs will miss the finals with a percentage of around 140.

Squiggle will crash the whole internet when that happens. Can't wait

 

[Alfonz]

So is there still people on here that think percentage doesn’t matter, or have we dispelled with that utter nonsense?

Not sure you have been interpreting that message properly. Everyone was all on board with boosting percentage when we were approaching the North-Bombers-Saints stretch. At that point we were level with Hawks on %, and GWS and GC were not out of reach.

But once we flunked that opportunity, people turned to not worrying about percentage because the damage had seemingly already been done. GWS gave us a sniff with an unexpected drubbing at the hands of the Dogs, but ultimately it seemed very clear after the Hawks smashed North in Rd 16 that we were almost certain to end up with the lowest % out of the top 9.

 

[wakojako]

Win tomorrow and Bulldogs will miss the finals with a percentage of around 140.

Counterpoint, if we cared about percentage and won tomorrow we would be top four.