BlueandGoldforever
Cancelled
Do you actually support West Coast? You seem to want to appease everybody and give up pretty quickly on your ‘apparent team’.
Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
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Do you actually support West Coast? You seem to want to appease everybody and give up pretty quickly on your ‘apparent team’.
- May 23, 2016
- 6,936
- 5,864
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Who said I'm giving up??
Hawthorn v Melbourne +16
Collingwood +1 v GWS
2/2. I'll permit myself a mild gloat, since that's 100% for the last 3 rounds.
1. Melbourne 33.3
2. Richmond 23.9
3. (Geelong 19.0)
4. (GWS 16.0)
5. West Coast 15.7
6. Collingwood 14.2 (+2)
7. (Essendon 12.7) (-1)
8. (Adelaide 11.6) (+1)
9. (Hawthorn 10.8) (-2)
Richmond +10 v Collingwood
West Coast v Melbourne +8
Collingwood +1 v GWS
2/2. I'll permit myself a mild gloat, since that's 100% for the last 3 rounds.
1. Melbourne 33.3
2. Richmond 23.9
3. (Geelong 19.0)
4. (GWS 16.0)
5. West Coast 15.7
6. Collingwood 14.2 (+2)
7. (Essendon 12.7) (-1)
8. (Adelaide 11.6) (+1)
9. (Hawthorn 10.8) (-2)
Richmond +10 v Collingwood
West Coast v Melbourne +8
WC will win 16+
- Nov 20, 2008
- 10,743
- 10,184
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- Melbourne
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- The Super Saiyans, Tasmania Devils
https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=2999
Some bright spark put
Melbourne @ 77% to win by 27 points.
In the immortal words of Mr Kerrigan: "Tell'em they're dreamin'"
Some bright spark put
Melbourne @ 77% to win by 27 points.
In the immortal words of Mr Kerrigan: "Tell'em they're dreamin'"
tazaa
Brownlow Medallist
What happens now lol
Richmond +10 v Collingwood
West Coast v Melbourne +8
0/2
There goes my clean sweep this finals series.
1. West Coast 27.1 (+4)
2. Melbourne 24.4 (-1)
3. Collingwood 23.4 (+3)
4. Richmond 16.2 (-2)
West Coast +4 v Collingwood.
(Note: I don't take into account home-ground advantage for grand finals. If I did, the prediction would be Collingwood +5.)
West Coast v Melbourne +8
0/2
There goes my clean sweep this finals series.
1. West Coast 27.1 (+4)
2. Melbourne 24.4 (-1)
3. Collingwood 23.4 (+3)
4. Richmond 16.2 (-2)
West Coast +4 v Collingwood.
(Note: I don't take into account home-ground advantage for grand finals. If I did, the prediction would be Collingwood +5.)
Gonna make sure the squiggle lowers me into my grave so it can let me down one last time.
Called it
Should of reversed the numbers though (61 instead of 16 would of been more accurate)
Also Pies by 20+ for the GF
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
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- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #938
Mmm, the problem with being a 65% chance to win is there's a 35% chance you'll lose.
It's a good illustration of why it's easier to forecast the minor premier than the premier. Over the course of a season, there will be many unexpected results, but these will tend to average out, so you can expect a team to finish around a certain position even though you're not sure how they'll get there.
In the finals, though, a single result means everything. And win probabilities tend to be something like 60/40, or even closer. So it's much harder to pick.
It's also why Richmond's chance of winning the flag was less than 50% before the prelim despite being the clear favourite - the chance of winning two matches in a row when you're a 65% chance in each of them is 0.65 x 0.65 = 0.4225 or 42%. You only need to stumble once and it's over.
What chance did the squiggle have of us losing like that though
Funny that now richmond exited, the grand final teams are barely in the premiership zone
This is the third season like that and it’s back to 97-98 to get anything like that.
Consider that 12 teams achieved 12 wins. Above 50% wins you could conclude the league is pretty much equalised
This is the third season like that and it’s back to 97-98 to get anything like that.
Consider that 12 teams achieved 12 wins. Above 50% wins you could conclude the league is pretty much equalised
Called it
Should of reversed the numbers though (61 instead of 16 would of been more accurate)
Should HAVE.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
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- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #943
It's a contender. If the Grand Final is close, then yes, the premier will be rated the least dominant of the last 20 years. If they deliver a smashing, though, they could jump North 1999, Sydney 2005, and Richmond 2017.
Certainly it'll be the third year in a row where the premier hasn't established a clear lead over the pack at some point.
Which is actually pretty common, but didn't happen once from 2007-2015, so we're not used to it.
Historically it looks a little clumpy, e.g.:
- 98-99: relatively even
- 00-02: Essendon & Brisbane
- 03-06: even
- 07-15: Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, Collingwood
- 16-18: even
caloschwaby
Whisper
- Jan 3, 2017
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- Collingwood
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- Celtics, Renegades, Packers
Absolutely groundbreaking mathematics.
- Oct 9, 2013
- 10,903
- 14,800
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- Western Bulldogs
Often misunderstood on here.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #947
And in real life! Humans tend to mentally classify future events as "probably will happen" or "probably won't happen," which makes it easier to think about. We're not very good at balancing competing probabilities.
the "Yesterdays weather" principle is a good one though
Jimmybob
Spec Moderator
- May 26, 2012
- 4,721
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- #949
Final Siren, have you any additions or updates planned for squiggle this summer break? Whether it’s the look of the site, algorithms, or completely new additions (ie. flag pole)
I really enjoy it when Final Siren throws in some psychology to go with Squiggle.
It's not all numbers and stats.
It's not all numbers and stats.
