Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

[Forward Press]

Do you really think Phelps will get back in (I hope she does). Might be tighter this time around.

I have no idea but gut feeling is that she will be re-elected. Has there been any controversy since she was elected? Just as importantly, has there been a major shift back to the Libs in the electorate? I don't think so.

Candidates have been announced.

https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm

Which Senate microparties are misleadingly named or fronts?

The 'WESTERN AUSTRALIA PARTY' has popped up in all 15 WA electorates and I confess I have no idea who they are.

Also my figures might be slightly off but I counted 105 NSW Senate candidates.

 

[Forward Press]

Great Australian Party also seems loopy.

1.Taxation reform consistent with the Commonwealth Constitution.
A) As inherited, all taxes are voluntary for all subjects of the Commonwealth – all public infrastructure to be funded by the National Estate (All commodities and natural resources within the Commonwealth of Australia).
B) We will show that the entire country can be successfully funded through the correct taxation of corporations without the need for people to pay personal income tax.
C) The source of this funding shall be through consolidated revenue according to the Commonwealth Constitution.
2. Bank reform back to the provisions in the Commonwealth Constitution.
A) Revert the current Reserve Bank of Australia back the old public Commonwealth bank, so as to eliminate the fraud currently committed by the private banks.
B) Re-establish the safety net that was the public Commonwealth Bank, ensuring that people’s savings are sured up by the Commonwealth Bank.
3. Local Government reform.
A) Eliminate local councils’ ability to operate as defacto third tiers of government and re-naming them accordingly – ie. removing the word “government”.
4. Legislator reform in line with the Commonwealth Constitution.
A) The legislator of any legislation must be in accordance with Section 1 of the Commonwealth Constitution, until otherwise changed by Referendum.
B) We will also promote an elected Head of Power to ensure that all laws follow due process and that all laws can show their authority for creation.
5. Focus law enforcement on eliminating true crimes – ie. any that create an actual victim – and stop punishing innocent subjects for fake crimes against The State where no victim exists – eg. traffic fines, and prohibition against consumables (eg. marijuana.)
A) Eliminate any uncorroborated evidence being admitted to court.
B) We will promote election of all judicial officers as opposed to them being promoted by The State and thus, creating a conflict of interest.
C) We will enforce the use of Grand Juries as the mainstay of any indictable offence.
6. Adhere to Article 7 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights – ie. no forced medication (vaccinations, fluoride, forced mental health care).
7. Eliminate the Family Court and set up mediation counselling as a replacement.
8. Encourage education of all the people, of the Commonwealth of Australia, alerting them to the importance of the Commonwealth Constitution and validly approved laws.
A) Install a law that anyone who stands at any election must pass a test on their specific knowledge of the Commonwealth Constitution.

 

[Forward Press]

And finally, the top two spots on the Senate ballot paper are One Nation and an anti-vax party.

This will be fun.

 

[Maggie5]

This site has a few more details on parties standing and their websites.

https://catespeaks.com/australian-federal-election-2019/

 

[Forward Press]

I counted three anti-vax parties on the Senate ballot paper. Yes yes I know freedom of political association blah blah but still disappointing imo.

 

[Dry Rot]

Saw a report that suggests 40% of voters will vote Pre-Poll commencing Monday indicating those voters made up their minds some months ago as to which way they will vote.
In effect the election is already over

Link?

 

[Dry Rot]

Do you really think Phelps will get back in (I hope she does). Might be tighter this time around.

Sadly IMO she hasn't got a hope. Disaffected Libs will return to the flock now in sufficient numbers.

 

[Dry Rot]

Thoughts on effect of Palmer Libs deal?

 

[pjcrows]

Thoughts on effect of Palmer Libs deal?

Depends how the narrative plays out.

Labor should run with "Palmer can't pay his workers, but can give the Liberal Party a leg up?" every day until May 18.

Overall it will probably help some of the knife-edge seats in Queensland. There's too many of them to all fall the Libs way though.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Candidates have been announced.

https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm

Which Senate microparties are misleadingly named or fronts?

Not a good sign when I'd have the Libs as high as 9th of 17th.

 

[Generalissimo]

Great Australian Party also seems loopy.

Bit of a Sovereign Citizen tinge, it seems.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Thoughts on effect of Palmer Libs deal?

Seems strange to me. Palmer's vote is going to be at its largest in Queensland. The vast, vast majority of people who will vote for him are people who are disaffected with the LNP.

I would imagine the dumb ****s that vote for him are more likely to preference One Nation - that obviously has implications in the Senate, but I don't know whether a deal necessarily means preferences will follow that deal in the lower house. It could even backfire, people who want to vote for Palmer are unlikely to appreciate being told how to preference.

 

[Pessimistic]

Abbott was out of control and great at destroying.

Shorten is a bit shifty to me and stands for nothing.

Sorry I thought it was about honesty

 

[Forward Press]

Not a good sign when I'd have the Libs as high as 9th of 17th.

The key is where the extra preferences above the quotas are allocated. Not sure if the Libs do this on a state by state or national basis but if the Libs for example put UAP above the ALP there would be a huge chance of a UAP Senator - or worse, if the loopy right wing parties manage to secure favourable deals. Luckily the electoral reforms reduce the chances of scenarios like an Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party gaining election but I think either way there is no chance of a government winning a majority in the Senate too.

 

[Van_Dyke]

Great Australian Party also seems loopy.

Bit of a Sovereign Citizen tinge, it seems.

Bang on, in WA their two candidates are Rod Culleton (lol) and Wayne Glew who is a sovereign citizen type who had his property seized from him because he refused to pay council rates.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

The key is where the extra preferences above the quotas are allocated. Not sure if the Libs do this on a state by state or national basis but if the Libs for example put UAP above the ALP there would be a huge chance of a UAP Senator - or worse, if the loopy right wing parties manage to secure favourable deals. Luckily the electoral reforms reduce the chances of scenarios like an Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party gaining election but I think either way there is no chance of a government winning a majority in the Senate too.

We're still learning how the new rules work, but my guess is most people are overestimating the chance of LNP/Labor preferences electing a minor party.

Either the major party vote surplus is so low, that their transferred vote at exclusion is essentially worthless, or it's high enough that they avoid the early exclusions and streak ahead of UAP/ON (I think most micro party voters will put their preferred major party somewhere in their top 6.)

My guess is UAP/ON would need to get a senate primary around 9-10% to have enough ground to hold off the major parties' surplus. Maybe they can get that in QLD, but if not they're dependent on the gaggle of RWNJ party votes staying away from the majors.

 

[Pessimistic]

There’s more danger where there’s a raft of independents referencing each other, eventually one might challenge the minor major party ang get all the preferences

 

[Forward Press]

We're still learning how the new rules work, but my guess is most people are overestimating the chance of LNP/Labor preferences electing a minor party.

Either the major party vote surplus is so low, that their transferred vote at exclusion is essentially worthless, or it's high enough that they avoid the early exclusions and streak ahead of UAP/ON (I think most micro party voters will put their preferred major party somewhere in their top 6.)

My guess is UAP/ON would need to get a senate primary around 9-10% to have enough ground to hold off the major parties' surplus. Maybe they can get that in QLD, but if not they're dependent on the gaggle of RWNJ party votes staying away from the majors.

Yeah we still only have a sample size of one for federal elections under the new rules (and even then a bit hazardous because it was a double dissolution so the quota and therefore surplus was half compared to normal elections), but theoretically it should depend heavily on how many quotas are achieved by the coalition and ALP. Again the critical factor is the preference deals by the smaller parties - I assume later on Antony Green will run over them with a fine tooth comb to give his predictions of who gets what.

If UAP/ON managed to negotiate smartly with the micro parties they may get enough to overhaul a coalition/ALP 3rd Senator anyway. But yes, interesting to follow as always. People often underestimate the importance of their Senate ballot.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

There’s more danger where there’s a raft of independents referencing each other, eventually one might challenge the minor major party ang get all the preferences

I don't think that's realistic. They no longer submit group voting tickets so their influence is limited to how-to-vote cards (and minor parties rarely have the volunteers to hand these out)

You could be right if these voters have the ideological awareness to direct preferences to a similar minor party, but most of these people are usually low-information, so my guess is that a lot will put their preferred major high on their ballot, hence the leakage.

 

[Pessimistic]

I don't think that's realistic. They no longer submit group voting tickets so their influence is limited to how-to-vote cards (and minor parties rarely have the volunteers to hand these out)

You could be right if these voters have the ideological awareness to direct preferences to a similar minor party, but most of these people are usually low-information, so my guess is that a lot will put their preferred major high on their ballot, hence the leakage.

Greens tend to be well informed

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Greens tend to be well informed

True. And occasionally one or two other parties are too (IIRC Christian Democrat/Conservative preferences behave as you'd expect.)

But the Green preferences are either never distributed, or go straight to the ALP, as there isn't another left-wing party that can build up a senate vote large enough to overtake them.

 

[Pessimistic]

True. And occasionally one or two other parties are too (IIRC Christian Democrat/Conservative preferences behave as you'd expect.)

But the Green preferences are either never distributed, or go straight to the ALP, as there isn't another left-wing party that can build up a senate vote large enough to overtake them.

It’s more that a Slew of independents might preference the greens before labor, and then the greens win from third place. More independents is more appealing to lure people to move away from majors. I’m thinking like phrahan

Not that I think it’s wrong, but that it’s a thing

 

[Lebbo73]

Sportsbet has my seat $6 for ONP to win.... perhaps Nationals to be reamed at election.

You might be right. Then there is the Deb Frecklington prediction you made at the last State election which couldn’t have been further from being right.

 

[Lebbo73]

Unlike the Libs, who take the view that "it's my way or the highway" (invariably resulting in the cross-bench choosing the latter option), the ALP have a history of negotiating successfully with the Senate cross-bench. That's why Gillard was actually a very successful PM, getting a lot of legislation through despite having a minority government in the HoR and no control over the Senate.

It isn’t hard to negotiate with a party that is even more left than the Labor Party. Especially when you have Plibersek, Wong and other potential greenies in your party.

 

[eastfreo75]

It isn’t hard to negotiate with a party that is even more left than the Labor Party. Especially when you have Plibersek, Wong and other potential greenies in your party.

yes and no.

Greens acted like a know it all, self righteous teenager who takes their bat and ball home if they don't get 100% what they want or if you don't argue with them.