Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

[Caesar]

Who does the business community want to see win the federal election-Labor, or the Coalition?

Neither are particularly good, but Labor’s policy platform pretty much guarantees lower economic growth (which business will never endorse).

https://www.afr.com/news/bill-shorten-s-australia-nirvana-20190415-p51eer

I think people underestimate what 5-6 years of a Shorten government will be like. It’s probable we’ll get a recession.

 

[Jascave]

I reckon this election is going to be a lot closer than originally anticipated just a few months ago. If Bill Shorten thinks he’s got the election in the bag now, he’ll be in for a rude shock on May 18.


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[Caesar]

It’ll be closer than the polls are indicating - it always is - but realistically it’s hard to see any result other than a comfortable ALP majority.

 

[Jascave]

It’ll be closer than the polls are indicating - it always is - but realistically it’s hard to see any result other than a comfortable ALP majority.

Don’t know about that, but if Bill Shorten has a major stuff up in the leaders debate next Monday plus if his campaign goes off the rails during the last week of the election before voting day, the whole complexion of the election will change big time.


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[The King!]

I think Bill would have to start pleasuring himself on stage during the debate to cost himself this election,

 

[campbell]

Of note today, Scomo made a goose of himself in a pub in Townsville today.
Also, imo the preference deals mean diddly squat.
A lot of voters hate politicians, and don’t want any party telling them who to preference.

And Palmer is hated in Qld.What he did to the Townsville workers is disgusting.


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[Hank Scorpion]

Of note today, Scomo made a goose of himself in a pub in Townsville today.
Also, imo the preference deals mean diddly squat.
A lot of voters hate politicians, and don’t want any party telling them who to preference.

And Palmer is hated in Qld.What he did to the Townsville workers is disgusting.


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What did Scummo do? I thought there was no campaigning today?

Think you're right on Palmer though. Coercing his 5(?)% of the primary vote when a majority of the electorate think Clive's a fat campaigner is stupid.

 

[campbell]

What did Scummo do? I thought there was no campaigning today?

Think you're right on Palmer though. Coercing his 5(?)% of the primary vote when a majority of the electorate think Clive's a fat campaigner is stupid.

Engaged with drinkers in a Townsville pub, who were rowdy, singing, wanting him to scull, he had nfi how to handle it,taking little sips.Had the deer in the headlights, like wtf, how do I get outta here.


Me thinks he is not a drinker.......

Herbert is one of the most marginal electorates, if he wants to win, he needs to fully engage.......I would suggest a visit to Palm Island, see how he likes some straight talking over there......


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[Tiges1229]

Odds down to 3.85 for LNP in Sportsbet .

 

[eastfreo75]

I reckon this election is going to be a lot closer than originally anticipated just a few months ago. If Bill Shorten thinks he’s got the election in the bag now, he’ll be in for a rude shock on May 18.


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[Pessimistic]

Engaged with drinkers in a Townsville pub, who were rowdy, singing, wanting him to scull, he had nfi how to handle it,taking little sips.Had the deer in the headlights, like wtf, how do I get outta here.


Me thinks he is not a drinker.......

Herbert is one of the most marginal electorates, if he wants to win, he needs to fully engage.......I would suggest a visit to Palm Island, see how he likes some straight talking over there......


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Fake ‘good bloke’ antics. Fair suck of the sauce botttle, mate

 

[aCunningPlan]

I can remember liberals telling me the day before the state election my local seat was seriously under threat, and not to be surprised if it’s a close one...Labor won 60% of the 2PP.

There are plenty of factors in play:
The Liberals lost control of the parliament
They replaced a Prime Minister without any justification
They have no credible environmental policies
They have screwed the economy, forcing the Reserve Bank to do the heavy lifting.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Link?

It was Laura Tingle on the 7"30 Report (or maybe Insiders)

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Neither are particularly good, but Labor’s policy platform pretty much guarantees lower economic growth (which business will never endorse).

https://www.afr.com/news/bill-shorten-s-australia-nirvana-20190415-p51eer

I think people underestimate what 5-6 years of a Shorten government will be like. It’s probable we’ll get a recession.

Paywall.

You're really annoyed Labor will give you less free money. That's what angers you. You have a lot of entitlement.

A recession would be coincidental.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Dutton knows its over

 

[Caesar]

Paywall.

You're really annoyed Labor will give you less free money. That's what angers you. You have a lot of entitlement.

A recession would be coincidental.

I don’t want a recession because I’m a sole breadwinner who’s just bought a house, and I’d kind of like to keep my job. The fact they want to tax me more in the short term is a minor annoyance, but not the main game.

When a recession comes - and it will come - it will be contributed to by the new government. Shorten is not the sort of economically responsible Labor PM that we’ve seen since Hawke reformed the party.

A lot of the people who are gunning for the ALP to blow out the health and education budget have no real concept of what a recession looks like.

By the by, I don’t think it’s particularly entitled to not want to pay more tax when already 40% of the population effectively pays none. Just saying.

 

[nobbyiscool]

I don’t want a recession because I’m a sole breadwinner who’s just bought a house, and I’d kind of like to keep my job. The fact they want to tax me more in the short term is a minor annoyance, but not the main game.

When a recession comes - and it will come - it will be contributed to by the new government. Shorten is not the sort of economically responsible Labor PM that we’ve seen since Hawke reformed the party.

A lot of the people who are gunning for The ALP to blow out the health and education budget have no real concept of what a recession looks like.

By the by, I don’t think it’s particularly entitled to not want to pay more tax when already 40% of the population effectively pays none. Just saying.

We're already in a per-capita recession, being propped up only by migration.

But hey, whatever suits your narrative.

 

[Caesar]

We're already in a per-capita recession, being propped up only by migration.

But hey, whatever suits your narrative.

Well exactly - we’re already fighting weak economic indicators and Shorten wants to run full-speed into a proper economic downturn. Madness.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Sure, personal ambition over personal conviction.

Well, if your view is that cynical, I’m reminded of the old saying that to a man with a hammer in his hands, the whole world looks like a protruding nail.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Unsure as to who will win, but it will be a minority govt for sure

Are you sure you know the meaning of the term?
It’s the HoR which decides the govt, not the Senate.

Labor is still on track to a thumping win, but without a senate majority.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Do you really think Phelps will get back in (I hope she does). Might be tighter this time around.

She hasn’t been in long enough for voters to form a dislike. I think all this talk of her losing her seat is garbage.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Labor wi

I don’t want a recession because I’m a sole breadwinner who’s just bought a house, and I’d kind of like to keep my job. The fact they want to tax me more in the short term is a minor annoyance, but not the main game.

When a recession comes - and it will come - it will be contributed to by the new government. Shorten is not the sort of economically responsible Labor PM that we’ve seen since Hawke reformed the party.

A lot of the people who are gunning for The ALP to blow out the health and education budget have no real concept of what a recession looks like.

By the by, I don’t think it’s particularly entitled to not want to pay more tax when already 40% of the population effectively pays none. Just saying.

Labor will not tax you more. The biggest lie Libs have pulled over the GP is that they will tax less than Labor. Any analysis proves this to be horse shit.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

We're already in a per-capita recession, being propped up only by migration.

But hey, whatever suits your narrative.

Caesar presents himself as modern and open. And whenever he has to pick between modern-open and conservative and establishment, he chooses conservative-establishment.

 

[Jascave]

Interesting to note that the first leaders debate will be on 7, but not on Sky News which will be showing (at this stage) Paul Murray Live. My guess is that I reckon there will be a best-of-three leaders debates, the first on the Seven Network next Monday night, the second on Sky News with the People’s Forum hosted by David Speers, and the third might be on the ABC conducted by the National Press Club, possibly on the final week of the election campaign before May 18.


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[Juddism]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-26/government-approved-uranium-mine-day-before-election/11047252

whatever chance Morrison thought he had has been blown away with this approval...I don't even recall hearing about the plans for this mine, absolutely disgraceful.