Which side is closer to a premiership - Carlton or Essendon?

[Irish BlueBagger]

Is there a merge option

No way!

 

[Foxx]

We might win a flag at some point within the next 30 years.

Its been 30 years since you've won a flag, and 25 for us. That's half a lifetime.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

Its been 30 years since you've won a flag, and 25 for us. That's half a lifetime.

Collingwood once went 32 years without a flag and Richmond 37 years. Once a losing culture starts to seep into a sporting organisation, the rot just spirals onwards from there and turning it around can be difficult.

The media of course set both clubs up for a fall every pre season with the hype. I find it telling that the two most successful Victorian clubs in the modern era Geelong and Hawthorn, are middle scale clubs in terms of size and overall profile.

Both those clubs just quietly plan for their next flag without the media hype, although the most recent Hawks flag was 10 years ago.

They'll probably win a flag before the Blues and Bombers the way things are currently going though!

 

[Spook]

I clicked on this thread interested on the general consensus, then being in my 50s I realised I’d be dead by then.

 

[Mr.X]

It can turn around quickly, Blues are closer than many people think

Carlton will do well this off season and it'll be a very different team in 2026, they should be able to build nicely towards a top 4 finish in 2027-29

 

[mhill]

Now that the trade period has been completed, I wanted rake over the cultural coals of how both clubs handled star players wanting to leave the club.
On the one hand, you have the Blues allowing 2 players - one emerging star and the other a favourite son of a favourite son of a favourite son - leaving via free agency.

Then, both clubs had to grapple with a star player, under contract, wanting to leave.

Feels like a fork in the road for both clubs with them each taking a different path.

I am siding with the Blues option - they still have enough generational talent that can get them back up the ladder. I think Jagger will be a star player in the afl.
I also really liked Vossy’s speech - headlined grabbing for the right reasons. Owned it which I loved.

My take on Essendon is this.
30 odd years ago, we had a captain (Wayne Campbell) wanting to walk out to Norf and win a flag. We didn’t let him go and wallowed in the middle to bottom part of the ladder.
9 years ago, after finishing 13th and losing to the Swans by a record margin, we allowed arguably one of our best players (Lids)wanting to leave the club.

Looking back, ego and appeasing our members got in our way 30 years ago.
More recently, we started to work back from what the team needed.

I feel that is now what Carlton have done and despite the short term pain, it might be the making of the Blues while the stigma of ego might persist at Essendon.

When the sugar hit of denial wears off, Essendon will have to deal with the smouldering ruin of their culture in the clubrooms.
The Blues have the opportunity at renewal.
Fascinating to see how this plays out.

 

[Milanista28]

For us to take a the big leap forward we need, Reid, Caddy, Roberts, Kako, pick 5, pick 6 to turn into rolled gold stars who stay fit, I give it a 10% chance.

 

[emblurr]

My take on Essendon is this.
30 odd years ago, we had a captain (Wayne Campbell) wanting to walk out to Norf and win a flag. We didn’t let him go and wallowed in the middle to bottom part of the ladder.
9 years ago, after finishing 13th and losing to the Swans by a record margin, we allowed arguably one of our best players (Lids)wanting to leave the club.

Give you another one to add to this
1986 a contracted Gary Buckenara wants to go and play for West Coast in their inaugural year as Vice Captain. Hawthorn blocks this by the Supreme court, Buckenara stays and wins two more premierships at Hawthorn. Can go either way.

 

[mhill]

Give you another one to add to this
1986 a contracted Gary Buckenara wants to go and play for West Coast in their inaugural year as Vice Captain. Hawthorn blocks this by the Supreme court, Buckenara stays and wins two more premierships at Hawthorn. Can go either way.

Gaz Jnr, Buddy say hi. Those days are long gone…

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Carlton relying on McKay, Hayward, Motlop, Kemp is a pretty mediocre forward line now.
Not to mention they lose one of the premier ruckman in the competition.

Feels like both clubs are back at rock bottom.

Thankfully we should be behind seeing Motlop rolling around for us now I suspect. Ainsworth and Hayward should have thoroughly pushed him out of the best 22.

Ainsworth - ???????? - Williams
Hayward - McKay - Moir

Cottrell/Hollands as the 7th rotation depending on what happens with Elijah I suspect.

Biggest question mark is who fills the 2nd KPF spot for us next year.

 

[Cyclops]

Carlton relying on McKay, Hayward, Motlop, Kemp is a pretty mediocre forward line now.
Not to mention they lose one of the premier ruckman in the competition.

Feels like both clubs are back at rock bottom.

Carlton seem to be taking small painful pragmatic steps. They aren't flag fancies so they're laying down some groundwork.

Essendon seem to be throwing haynakers at shadows. Merret leaving isn't costing Essendon a flag, and keeping him looks like putting sanity on hold because....why exactly?

Quite possibly Blues might dip below Essendon in the next year or two but mhill has nailed it above.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Does it get tiresome barracking for Carlton?

I'd almost throw in the towel and just go follow another sport.
You guys have lost half a lifespan barracking for this rabble.

It feels like you right back to the good old days of Walker, Henderson, Murphy, Yarran and Waite all over again.

I know most Geelong fans are as fickle as they come, but even I'm surprised you're this fickle...

Throw in the towel because my team is going shite at the moment? Yikes.

 

[randyzany]

A bit like asking who's more likely to finish a marathon: an obese person or an an unhealthy thin vegetarian that runs out of breath after 5 minutes of normal walking. They're equally as far as it is possible.

 

[dean33]

Like asking which is closer to the sun, Neptune or Pluto. Both light years away.

 

[Worm4]

I know most Geelong fans are as fickle as they come, but even I'm surprised you're this fickle...

Throw in the towel because my team is going shite at the moment? Yikes.

Fancy throwing in the towel if your side is shit. What a wimp even contemplating doing that

 

[HairyO]

For us to take a the big leap forward we need, Reid, Caddy, Roberts, Kako, pick 5, pick 6 to turn into rolled gold stars who stay fit, I give it a 10% chance.

The important thing is to keep your hopes up. With Dodoro floaating around advising Welsh and Hird lurking in the shadows waiting for Scott to be sacked there is good times coming in the near future.

The shame is you could have had a serious crack at prying pick 1 out of WCE. Rosa had a plan but was overruled by common sense.

 

[Milanista28]

The important thing is to keep your hopes up. With Dodoro floaating around advising Welsh and Hird lurking in the shadows waiting for Scott to be sacked there is good times coming in the near future.

The shame is you could have had a serious crack at prying pick 1 out of WCE. Rosa had a plan but was overruled by common sense.

You have 19 players as good or better than Zach anyway so you can stop crying now.

 

[katana]

Like asking which is closer to the sun, Neptune or Pluto. Both light years away.

neither of those places are even close to a single 'light year' from the sun.

 

[HairyO]

You have 19 players as good or better than Zach anyway so you can stop crying now.

Unusual comment given this is about Carlton and Essendon.

Given my age though, Im not sure it will be either club in my lifetime.

Or maybe Im as wrong as Montagna who, in 2023 said the Hawks were 10 years away from winning a final.

 

[boncer34]

Unusual comment given this is about Carlton and Essendon.

Given my age though, Im not sure it will be either club in my lifetime.

Or maybe Im as wrong as Montagna who, in 2023 said the Hawks were 10 years away from winning a final.

Well you did say Karl Amon is a better player than Zach Merrett so you can excuse us for being iffy on your predictions.

 

[HairyO]

Well you did say Karl Amon is a better player than Zach Merrett so you can excuse us for being iffy on your predictions.

#2nd in a BNF in a Prelim year. Exactly the same as Nick Daicos.

But again, Im trying to keep this about the 2 clubs in the thread title.

Its quite likely in 2026 you end up a spot or 2 higher than Carlton.

 

[CCurnow3picks]

Carlton relying on McKay, Hayward, Motlop, Kemp is a pretty mediocre forward line now.
Not to mention they lose one of the premier ruckman in the competition.

Feels like both clubs are back at rock bottom.

“One of the premier ruckman in the competition”

$1.8m over 8 years - he must be amazing!

Let’s look at TDK’s career stats:

Played 100 games

Averages per game;
0.4 goals
Goal assists 0.2
3 marks
13 disposals
Disposal efficiency 62%
Inside 50’s 2.6
Clearances 3.5
Hitouts 18.4
Hitouts to advantage 36%
Tackles 2

It must be a very low bar .

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

But what about the stats since he made significant improvement 2024-present?

He's now averaging 17 disposals, 22 hitouts and 4.5 clearances per game.
Those are the kind of weekly averages he will be putting up for the next 5-7 years.
Certainly not worth anything close to $1.8 mill but definitely one of the best rucks in the comp.

Meh, Pittonet is more than serviceable in his place. He's St Kildas issue to deal with now

 

[boncer34]

#2nd in a BNF in a Prelim year. Exactly the same as Nick Daicos.

But again, Im trying to keep this about the 2 clubs in the thread title.

Its quite likely in 2026 you end up a spot or 2 higher than Carlton.

Are you comparing Karl Amon to Nick Daicos? Is your contention that they're a similar quality because they both finished 2nd in their respective B&F's?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Are you comparing Karl Amon to Nick Daicos? Is your contention that they're a similar quality because they both finished 2nd in their respective B&F's?

Don't try and reason with them, they still think Will Day and Newcombe are on the same sort of levels as Bontempelli.