Preview Demons v Sydney- Official Preview - Including Teams

vs

THE GAME: SCG, Saturday May 19, 4.40pm

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Played 200, Melbourne 92 wins, Sydney 106, Draws 2
Since 2000: Melbourne 8 wins, Sydney 12

LAST TIME: Sydney Swans 11.18 (84) drew with Melbourne 11.18 (84), round one, 2011 at the MCG

The Demons and the Swans played out the first draw in an opening round since 1982 at the MCG that Sunday afternoon.

A flying snap from Swans forward Ryan O’Keefe sailed through for a behind with 50 seconds remaining, to give the Swans a share of the spoils of a match they led nearly all day.

The Swans were ahead by as much as four goals at one stage in the third term before the Demons mounted their comeback. A freakish mid-air volleyed goal from new skipper Brad Green with two minutes to go gave us the lead for the first time in the match, but the remainder of the match was played in the Swans' half of the ground. A rushed behind, followed by the O’Keefe snap, ensured the draw.

The first half was played at a frantic pace, befitting two sides champing at the bit for several months to play meaningful footy. The Swans looked more damaging early with key forwards Adam Goodes and Sam Reid threatening to take the game apart, but they were less effective after half time and it was left to Jude Bolton to take some important marks and kick three second half goals for the Swans to keep his side ahead.

At the other end, the Jurrahcane showed some spark and finished with two goals, but Swans fullback Ted Richards had the best of that duel.

We got back into this game by winning the contested possession. Brent Moloney and Jack Trengove led the way, while Green, Aaron Davey and Colin Sylvia were also important with some key touches in the second half.

LAST TIME AT VENUE: Sydney 17.7 (109) def Melbourne 8.12 (60), Round 5, 2007

MEDIA

TV: Fox Footy (4:30 pm AEST), 7mate (live in the ACT and throughout NSW, excepting Broken Hill & remote areas)

RADIO: SEN, ABC, Triple M (Sydney)

SUMMARY:

Following five consecutive wins to start the season and talk of a top-four finish, the Swans have dropped two straight - a narrow defeat to Adelaide and a poor effort against Richmond. Coach John Longmire wasn't happy with the pressure applied against the Tigers and expects a response this week.

Whereas the pressure on us continues, after a week in which we went backwards in many respects, slumping to a seventh successive defeat in a meek showing against Hawthorn last Friday night. We need to respond, and to continue the sort of improvement we've shown in so many areas of the game, during the three weeks prior to that match.

But the Jurrahcane is back!

And we couldn't need him any more than we do right now, I'd say.

He'll be playing up forward against the Swans, and hopefully he can take his good early form for Casey last weekend further this week, and can pick up where he left off after his strong performances throughout 2011, resulting in a 40-goal haul from 18 games that year.

Plus Watts returns this week, and he should also provide a much-needed boost, especially if he can continue on the effort he put up, for instance, for Casey the week before last when he kicked 4 against Geelong in the VFL, along with his goal and 25-possession haul against Box Hill last week, together with his skilful ball-use, which has always been a constant, and a class above the efforts of many others in our lineup so far this year.

And yes, Jack is lining up at CHF!

Fitzpatrick had some ok contests last week, although looked a bit slow, and he'll be going back to Casey this weekend, along with Bail, who was amongst our worst ball-users against the Hawks, and Bate, who was practically invisible, with even the rare few possessions he did get being totally squandered.

Petterd, while many of us like him, did not show anything to suggest there are better things ahead, and he's also missed the cut this week. He will be replaced by Brad Green... but I have absolutely no expectations about whatever Green might produce for us this time around.

Blease also comes back in, after being dropped previously due to failing to effectively follow Neeld's gameplan.

The 'Cane has played the past two matches for Casey, after returning from a wrist injury sustained pre-Christmas. No need to mention the other circumstances here I think.

This is the strongest team we've put together so far this year.

Contested ball and clearances- two of our clear strengths (excepting last week) will be vital within the tight confines of the SCG, as will our ability to convert advantages in these areas into inside 50s - something we'd improved in each week until the Hawthorn game. And of course, a lot rests on Mitch again up forward, as it has throughout this year.

Sydney were disappointing in their 29-point loss to a rising Richmond team, but that could be credited to the Swans' poor form at the MCG, and not so much of a form guide for this clash.

Quotes from football manager Josh Mahoney...

“Liam has played the last two games at Casey and he has been able to build up his fitness base over the last month. He’s played the past two games at Casey and shown some good form and we’re excited about having him back in the team.”

“Brad has recovered very well from his finger injury and will add some experience to the side. Jack has played very well for Casey over the past two weeks and he is benefiting from the extra work he is doing to take his game to another level. Sam has performed consistently well at Casey and has worked hard on aspects of his game to earn a recall.”

WALKING WOUNDED:

The Demons had no new injury complaints from their loss to Hawthorn, with Jordan Gysberts (jaw) ruled out of this clash.

James Strauss (leg) also won't be included, along with James Sellar, while Josh Tynan, Leigh Williams, Max Gawn, Michael Evans and Neville Jetta are unavailable.

Injuries have derailed the Swans in recent weeks, with stars Adam Goodes and Shane Mumford still watching from the stands with respective quad and back injuries.

Midfielder Luke Parker was in the wars for the second time already in season 2012, when he injured his knee in the loss to Richmond on Saturday, after breaking his jaw in Round 1. He has been cleared of structural damage, but could not pass a fitness test before Saturday's twilight fixture.

Key defender Lewis Roberts-Thomson (heel), however, has passed his test, and will be in the team for this game.

FORM:

Demons' Last Five:

Round 7: Loss, 6.13 (49) - 15.25 (115) v Hawthorn, MCG
Round 6: Loss, 11.10 (76) - 17.17 (119) v Geelong, Simonds Stadium
Round 5: Loss, 10.6 (66) - 12.12 (84) v St Kilda, MCG
Round 4: Loss, 9.13 (67) - 13.10 (88) v Western Bulldogs, MCG
Round 3: Loss, 11.8 (74) - 20.13 (133) v Richmond, MCG

Swans' Last Five:

Round 7: Loss, 8.14 (62) - 13.13 (91) v Richmond, MCG
Round 6: Loss, 14.10 (94) - 15.9 (99) v Adelaide, SCG
Round 5: Win, 16.10 (106) - 10.9 (69) v Hawthorn, Aurora Stadium
Round 4: Win, 17.11 (113) - 10.17 (77) v North Melbourne, SCG
Round 3: Win, 16.9 (105) - 12.11 (83) v Port Adelaide, AAMI Stadium

WHO'S HOT:

Mitch Clark - The ex-Brisbane star has not yet sung his new team song but that fact is not a reflection of his mammoth efforts to give his side a hope of scoring up forward. Clark bagged three first-quarter goals against Hawthorn, which turned out to be Melbourne's only majors for the first half. He finished the match with 13 possessions, nine marks, eight hitouts, four tackles and three goals - a stellar effort, considering his surroundings.

Josh Kennedy - One of the favourites for the Brownlow Medal this season, the former Hawk has been a constant in the Swans losing side over the past fortnight. A team-high 21 possessions combined with two goals against the Tigers is just a snapshot of his class, and John Longmire can bank on a consistent performance out of his versatile midfielder all year.

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Round eight team

Melbourne

B: James Frawley, Jared Rivers, Clint Bartram
HB: Jack Grimes, Colin Garland, Tom McDonald
C: Cale Morton, Brent Moloney, Nathan Jones
HF: Jack Trengove, Jack Watts, Liam Jurrah
F: Jeremy Howe, Mitch Clark, Aaron Davey
FOLL: Mark Jamar, Jordie McKenzie, Colin Sylvia
I/C: Jamie Bennell, Sam Blease, Brad Green, James Magner

EMG: Lynden Dunn, James Sellar, Rohan Bail

IN: Brad Green, Liam Jurrah, Sam Blease, Jack Watts

OUT: Rohan Bail, Ricky Petterd, Matthew Bate, Jack Fitzpatrick

Sydney Swans

B: Martin Mattner, Ted Richards, Rhyce Shaw
HB: Nicholas Smith, Heath Grundy, Jarrad McVeigh
C: Lewis Jetta, Josh P. Kennedy, Nick Malceski
HF: Ryan O'Keefe, Tommy Walsh, Daniel Hannebery
F: Ben McGlynn, Sam Reid, Trent Dennis-Lane
Foll: Mike Pyke, Kieren Jack, Jude Bolton
I/C: Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Craig Bird, Luke Parker, Alex Johnson

EMG: Jesse White, Andrejs Everitt, Tony Armstrong

IN: Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Mike Pyke, Tommy Walsh

OUT: Jesse White, Mark Seaby, Andrejs Everitt

NEW: Tommy Walsh (St Kilda)

ANALYSIS:

We only played half a game last week. And it was very, very obvious.

Bar the first quarter (which we won by 3 points) and the third quarter (which we drew), it was a horror night.

Again, Mitch Clark was among the highlights, kicking three great goals early on, despite starting in the ruck. At one stage, amazing as it seems now, we had doubled the Hawks on the scoreboard, giving real reason to think we could pull off the upset. Somewhat more miraculous when you consider that when we led, late in the opening term, we had half as much possession as they did, and trailed in almost every other area of the game, except our finishing in front of goal.

And this overwhelming imbalance proved out forty minutes after Clark booted his third goal when the half time siren sounded, at which time the Hawks had added a further 7.8.50 to only 2 points from us (from three shots, of which two-thirds were Newton-esque shank jobs from close range with no angle). Clark was still our only goalkicker.

The AFL certainly wouldn't have been happy. As a source who monitors the numbers of television sets switched onto the football has said, the ratings plummeted in dramatic fashion as half time approached. He maintains that five minutes into the third term, more people were watching SBS than there were viewing the footy.

There weren't many bright lights in our lineup other than Clark. Magner, Bartram, Jonah and the Russky all put their hands up from time to time, but too many of their teammates seemed anonymous and asleep. As usual, our run and spread was a major deficiency, as was our ball-use, with the Hawks a long way ahead both in skill and execution.

For the most part, they basically did as they pleased and too many Demons simply failed to produce the goods. Sylvia (6 disposals in 85% of game time), Bennell (4 - 91%) and Petterd (5 - 84%) were amongst the worst offenders.

One absolutely damning statistic (among many available from this game) was scores from stoppages, which Hawthorn won 8.8.56 to 0.4.4. We went backwards at a rate of knots in areas which have been our core strengths the rest of the year, and that proves it beyond any hope of disputation.

The Russky did well enough, as did Mitch when he was in the ruck, seeing us end up with 31 hitouts to 26 on the night, but our on-ballers, despite what was good quality service from our ruck division, were still not winning the clearances successfully. Another shattering sign of how far we regressed in this match.

If the Hawks had kicked straight at all, this could have gone from merely a slopfest, to desperately nightmarish, on a level worse than the Eagles game was.

And here are some more horrible statistical realities:

Contested possession count - 105. Our worst effort this year by far. 14 worse even than the Richmond match in Round 3. Two-thirds less than the Hawks achieved, and until last night, they were amongst the worse teams in the league in that regard.

Overall, we were completely dominated in a department which has been in recent weeks, and is supposed to be, our biggest strength.

Total possession count - 259 for us, 425 for Hawthorn. Again, as bad as it's been all year. The turnover rate wasn't especially worse than it's been otherwise, nor our disposal efficiency, although both remained poor. But when we're not winning the contested ball, and everything else remains constant, this is what happens.

Clearances - 22 to us, 40 for Hawthorn. Amazing. And this against a team who were, up until that night, the worst clearance side in the league. There couldn't be a more obvious statement about our total uncompetitiveness for the majority of the night than this. Absolutely ****ing appalling. Inexcusable, by any possible standard.

Inside 50s - 36 this time, down from 46 last week - which is inevitable, considering everything else. I'd actually say we were converting what possession we did have into service inside the arc, better than we have the rest of the year.

Now to the slightly more positive stats:

Hitouts - Even on this night, we won more contests than we lost in the ruck, as I said before. 31-26. Although the Hawks don't exactly have a particularly noteworthy ruck division, and 31 hitouts is horribly far below our average.

Contested marks - again, thanks mostly to Mitch, Howe, Magner and the Russky, we won this area of the game, 18-15. We remain close to being the best contested marking team in the league. The only other area in which we were legitimately strong throughout.

Tackle count - As far as I could see, we tackled reasonably well that night, but we had plenty of opportunity, given the massive imbalance in possession. At least we did better than the Hawks in this regard: 67-50. But 67 tackles is about our average from week to week so far this year.

PREDICTION:

I don't really know what to expect against the Swans. I think we'll be far more competitive, and the size of the ground should work in our favour, if we can produce the sort of performance we put up against St Kilda.

The last time we won at the Sydney Cricket Ground was 2006 - with four of our current squad playing that day. The most recent game we've played at the SCG was in 2007, which means most of our team have never played that ground before.

Brad Green - the most significant of those who were a part of our 2006 win - is under extreme pressure to perform if he's going to justify another contract.

And of course, lack of leadership is amongst our biggest problems.

I honestly don't have a clue about the likely result this week. But I can't see a win out of this. As always though, I live in hope.

Maybe Swans by 20.

Firstly, good write-up on your game.

Just wanted to know, what has Bate done wrong to keep getting dropped?? I'll admit I haven't seen all your games, but he seems to have started as the sub a fair bit, and hasn't had a good crack at it. Seems to be a player that has a go, can take a good mark and kick a goal.

Is it attitude??

TBoyleSuperstar said:

Firstly, good write-up on your game.

Just wanted to know, what has Bate done wrong to keep getting dropped?? I'll admit I haven't seen all your games, but he seems to have started as the sub a fair bit, and hasn't had a good crack at it. Seems to be a player that has a go, can take a good mark and kick a goal.

Is it attitude??

Click to expand...

He is just an average player. Too slow, can't pick the ball up below his knees and has average disposal.

With a fit list there is no room in the side for him on a regular basis going forward I would have thought.

TBoyleSuperstar said:

Firstly, good write-up on your game.

Just wanted to know, what has Bate done wrong to keep getting dropped?? I'll admit I haven't seen all your games, but he seems to have started as the sub a fair bit, and hasn't had a good crack at it. Seems to be a player that has a go, can take a good mark and kick a goal.

Click to expand...

Well as I say, he was anonymous against you guys, and even when he got the ball, he turned it over three-quarters of the time.

He can perform well - sometimes. But too often, he's mediocre or worse.

And he's had plenty of time to prove himself with us, of course.

Thanks Wonna.

Interesting, Mummy injured and Seaby dropped. Russian vs Pyke.

Sydney by 20 sounds about right but I'll say it again I'm up about this one, I just don't know why.

RandB said:

Thanks Wonna.

Interesting, Mummy injured and Seaby dropped. Russian vs Pyke.

Sydney by 20 sounds about right but I'll say it again I'm up about this one, I just don't know why.

Click to expand...

Yeah, I've got a strange feeling too... but I don't quite trust those instincts at the moment mate!

As for Pyke, safe to say he's got about as much chance up against the Russky as McNeeley did against Tyson - whether we turn that big advantage into lots of clearance wins this time, as we would have in the last three weeks before the Hawthorn game, is another question.

I think we will. Still plenty of other pieces in the puzzle to be filled though, of course.

Overall, if we play the way we did against the Saints, we've got a damn good chance. Christ knows if we will.

I'm with you boys in that I think this is a winnable game, but we will have to play like we did against the Saints to be truly in with a show. We have some good players back in and the smaller ground will suit our style of play really, really well.

Will need a lot of things to fall into place but no Goodes and no Mumford is terrific for us in this game. If we can keep Reid quiet and curb the influence of a Kennedy we are in with a show.

The consensus among Demons fans at the moment seems to be a 4-6 goal Swans victory. The Swans have been trending down since Goodes' injury, and we have three of our best forwards back in the lineup, and even though the rest if the world sees this as a "gimmie", a win this week isn't a totally insane thought to have and as good a chance to claim premiership points as the club will have for a while. But, against all logic, I have this terrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that the Swans are going to murder us up there. If this game was at the 'G, I would be much more confident. . . but it's not.

I don't know what to expect this week.
?¿?

Our best looking side on paper for the year.

Excited by all our 4 ins, Green, Jurrah and Watts give us more than one option up forward and Bleasey running the ball out of the backline and delivering up the ground bloody excites me, all players with great skills which is something our side lacks.

Need big games from our senior guys, Davey, Green, Moloney and Sylvia and then we are right in this game.

Reasonably happy with the changes, although not sure Brad Green did enough in the VFL last week to come straight back in. Wasn't exactly in the best of form before the injury either.....

Hi everyone, curious to know why Couch isn't getting a game for you guys? From the limited reading I've done on him, he's been doing well at Casey (I could be mistaken). Also, wasn't he promoted off the rookie list a while ago? If so, wouldn't that normally mean he'd get a game?

Good luck for this weekend.

Staffy_Dog said:

Hi everyone, curious to know why Couch isn't getting a game for you guys? From the limited reading I've done on him, he's been doing well at Casey (I could be mistaken). Also, wasn't he promoted off the rookie list a while ago? If so, wouldn't that normally mean he'd get a game?

Good luck for this weekend.

Click to expand...

Was sick last week and didnt play in the VFL, also:

He is a slow inside player, we all ready have plenty of them.

Looking at our team on paper, it will be an absolute failure if we lose this game by more than 3 goals, or if we cant win.

We should win this game.

Optimistic about the Swans game.
Have plenty of scoring options in Clark Jurrah Howe Green Sylvia & Watts plus Sydney are without their two first choice ruckman & of course Adam Goodes.
If Mark Jamar can control the ruck & our midfield at least can break even we are in with a chance to cause an upset.
In saying this it will be about attitude & effort over four quarters something that escapes us time after time!

Good on you for picking Jurrah - if he is fit and in form.

They should be the only considerations while he is still yet to be proven anything.

Very well said mate. I'm sure we all appreciate you making that post now too, especially given the way things have gone down in recent days around BF, with us being wrongly hammered in severe fashion from so many directions about this issue!

It's good to see you around here again

This is a must win

I reckon we could do it - small ground could be an interesting change for the gameplan.

jurrahcane_24 said:

Looking at our team on paper, it will be an absolute failure if we lose this game by more than 3 goals, or if we cant win.

We should win this game.

Click to expand...

Wait a minute, it's an absolute failure if we don't get within 3 goals of a team that's sitting just outside the top 4 on percentage when we've struggled to kick half of our opponents score in most of our games so far?

I'm an optimist, but I just cannot see how that's going to end well for you.

Logger said:

Wait a minute, it's an absolute failure if we don't get within 3 goals of a team that's sitting just outside the top 4 on percentage when we've struggled to kick half of our opponents score in most of our games so far?

I'm an optimist, but I just cannot see how that's going to end well for you.

Click to expand...

well look at both teams on paper

They are also out of form and are missing Goodes and Mumford.

We are a huge chance of beating them

Fact is, its going to click soon enough for the Demons, and when it does we are going to flog someone. It might just happen tomorrow.

Definitely think we have a chance. Sydney's forward line is mediocre this year, and aside from Richards, their backs aren't that strong either. Their midfield, however, may well slaughter us, although without a solid ruck that could change. Definitely a chance, and I don't think we'll be slaughtered. The Swans rely a lot on their mids chipping in with goals, if we can shut down one or 2 of them (preferrably Kennedy) then we may have a chance at a big upset.
Our forward line looks the best it has all year and if we give them enough opportunities then they'll kick a decent score. Not sure we'll get a win, but it's going to be a good game, provided we come to play.

RandB said:

Thanks Wonna.

Interesting, Mummy injured and Seaby dropped. Russian vs Pyke.

Sydney by 20 sounds about right but I'll say it again I'm up about this one, I just don't know why.

Click to expand...

RandB I feel the same way , i cant put my finger on it but i believe we are a bit of a show here.

I dont bet on the footy but after seeing $8 for a win i am a little tempted to drop $50.
Then again

jurrahcane_24 said:

well look at both teams on paper

They are also out of form and are missing Goodes and Mumford.

We are a huge chance of beating them

Fact is, its going to click soon enough for the Demons, and when it does we are going to flog someone. It might just happen tomorrow.

Click to expand...

I appreciate your optimism but remind me the last game to be decided on paper?

edit- to clarify Sydney imo arnt a team that dont look great on paper, but i bet they are the type of team Neeld would love to coach, they give there all every game and get 100% out of themselves/work as a team should and for each other.

we are not here yet

Great write up man, heres hoping for a competitve contest

jurrahcane_24 said:

well look at both teams on paper

They are also out of form and are missing Goodes and Mumford.

We are a huge chance of beating them

Fact is, its going to click soon enough for the Demons, and when it does we are going to flog someone. It might just happen tomorrow.

Click to expand...

Our two losses? Narrowly against a side who is in great form at the moment in the Crows in Sydney and a terrible performance on a ground where we don't come to play, the MCG, lost 10 of past 13 there (including last 3 against Tigers there)....yes Goodes and Mumford are massive not being there for us....but we certainly are not a two man side, you will see .

In saying that, those inclusions are pretty big for the MFC, some much needed goal-kicking power may indeed keep the game exciting.