2011 Draft Discussion #2

[JasRulz63]

I dunno, Darren Glass had a pretty good season and is 192cm. Same as Rutten.

Though I do agree about Lester, don't see him holding down a CHB position. Could play third tall quite well in my opinion, also potentially a tall midfielder.

 

[jjami15]

Darren Glass had a pretty good season and is 192cm. Same as Rutten.

Matthew Scarlett (192)

 

[blackpowerlappin]

Darren Glass had a pretty good season and is 192cm. Same as Rutten.

Matthew Scarlett (192)

Ok. Exceptional 192cm KPDs, excepted. Couldn't be too many more.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Sorry Dom, 191cm KPDs don't cut it in today's game.

Hold your thumb and forefinger out so it's an inch. That's the difference between what you're saying is too short and is OK. I struggle to see how that makes a huge difference. Gibson had a pretty good year as a FB and he's 189cm. I reckon Leo Barry would stack up pretty well in todays game and he was only 184. Vertical leap, arm length and footy smarts are highly underrated by people when it comes to key defenders. Height is nothing to be sneezed at, but it's not the be-all and end-all.

 

[Dom PC]

Leppitsch 191cm and Mal Michael 190cm...

Height can be overated to a degree even in KPP.

 

[Nuggo]

Leppitsch 191cm and Mal Michael 190cm...

Height can be overated to a degree even in KPP.

Height or Width He was a big unit.....actually just a unit.

 

[Voss the boss]

I have watched about 20 videos on you tube mind you (top 20 ish) and am wondering if i am missing something. I keep thinking back to the callum b video - where he is carving up using pace breaking lines etc. What i have seen is a lot of handballs and rushed kicks. I want to see someone stand out but not seeing it.

 

[blackpowerlappin]

Hold your thumb and forefinger out so it's an inch. That's the difference between what you're saying is too short and is OK. I struggle to see how that makes a huge difference. Gibson had a pretty good year as a FB and he's 189cm. I reckon Leo Barry would stack up pretty well in todays game and he was only 184. Vertical leap, arm length and footy smarts are highly underrated by people when it comes to key defenders. Heights is nothing to be sneezed at, but it's not the be-all and end-all.

Ok, I Accept the points made but the players mentioned are and were your third man up types and very much supported by disciplined game plans based on defensive systems albeit different in philosophy. No doubt their are some exceptional KPDs at 191-2cms, but I would prefer them a little taller with the leap and extended arm length. If we look at the preliminary between Hawthorn and the Ferrals, you have to say that Cloke was huge and a critical player to the end result. Take Sydney and their was Bolton and LRT, not to mention Jolly and Ball and Goodes who all played defensive support roles in a disciplined unit.

Do you think Gibson would have held Hawkins in this years GF?

 

[JasRulz63]

Craig Bolton was only 190cm though.

 

[blackpowerlappin]

Craig Bolton was only 190cm though.

Well must have been one disciplined unit in 05/06 up Sydney way. Still, come finals time and what we saw from Geelong was a game plan similar to ours circa 01 to 04. With some of the athletic and iron gloved KPFs around, I would prefer the taller backs.

Granted however that their are very capable 191-2cm back men. Not sure the ones mentioned are all considered KPDs.

 

[Dom PC]

Could someone make a poll asking if lions supporters would be happy taking a KPP over "best avaliable" with 1 of our 1st rd picks ?? Be an interesting one I think.

Anyone see a likely slider in the predicted top say 7 in the draft? Eg possibly a Longer due to him not having great foot skills...

 

[Ruse]

I'm not entirely sold that kersten will be so much better than the kpp we can get with our second round picks and with Brown, Lisle, Staker, Lester, Retzlaff and Cornelius still in our list as KPF we don't really need to desperately target a KPF in the draft. I say get buntine, kavanagh, sumner or adams with our first two picks and seriously target tippett and/or the plethora of talls coming out of contract from the gold coast suns next year.

 

[13Beast]

I'm not entirely sold that kersten will be so much better than the kpp we can get with our second round picks

I agree. At our picks of 8 and 12, there will almost certainly be 1, 2 or more genuine top-tier midfield prospects still available - perhaps Kavanagh/WHE/Sumner/Greene. Sure, we do have the beginnings of a solid midfield already, and there are more pressing concerns to draft a KPD, class ruckman or a KPF, but looking at talent alone, I think we'd be wasting those 8 and 12 picks on any of the KPP's likely still available at that point - barring Tomlinson, Longer and arguably Buntine if any of them are still available by luck.

As I believe Quigley mentioned earlier, the difference in quality of KPP available to be drafted with pick 12 or pick 30 is marginal at best. And there is an element of debate that players like Dobosz, Kersten, Paine, Frost etc may very well still be available at 30. So why burn up pick 8 or 12 on them? I think we would all agree that it would be very surprising if Kavanagh/WHE/Sumner/Greene were still available by pick 30, given their talent. I say snap them up.

It seems there are plenty more of these "second-tier" talls/KPP's that all have their own upsides and potential downsides. And at pick 30, we will undoubtedly have quite a few to pick from. I mean, during this thread, really only about 5 or 6 midfield names have been thrown about. And the same names keep recurring. But I have lost count of how many talls have been mentioned, all of which sound promising in their own way.

Let's name them... and try and pick a number one out of all these guys...

Kersten, Paine, Dobosz, Frost, Elton, Docherty, Talia, Manson, Bolger, Ross, McInnes, Downie, Bosely, McKenzie, Bussey, Schade, Hammond, Yeo, Curran... and the list goes on. And they all look like they have the potential to be stars, but all carry inherent risk - MUCH more seemingly than the top-tier midfielders that we will be able to snap up with our early picks.

 

[Grimreepah]

Article on Buntine

Greater Western Sydney is poised to snare Buntine with one of its top-five choices.

Also mentions that Voss is a fan.

 

[JasRulz63]

If we did get Buntine, we'd have a hell of a leadership group heading into the future; Redden, Rockliff, Rich and Buntine

 

[Hollow Knight]

Bloody GWS.

 

[Banana Boots]

Article on Buntine



Also mentions that Voss is a fan.

yeh i think buntine should be our top target, with pick 12 go with the best mid maybe kavanagh or greene, not too worried about what we get with pick 30 and 47 considering its apparently a shallow draft but you never know

 

[Ceebee]

Buntine sounds just what we need,maybe luck will bring him our way.

 

[Quigley]

This is a question for Quigley (though anyone can answer it for me). You have Shane Kersten as our pick 12. Wouldn't we be better suited to picking a midfielder with pick 12 with our KPF stocks solid.

Is it that Kersten is best avaliable ??? Or is it that you think ACorn wont do what is required to become 1st 22 regular next year ?

Also you mention nothing about Patty K as our 3rd tall next season ??? Surely he will become our Fevola due to his goal kicking ability and showing enough to suggest his is good enough to be our FF. If he can kick 2 goals a game at his age surely he has found his position ???

Also pick 8 you skipped Buntine just wondering if you could give reasoning ?

Sorry I'm not having a go at you at all... just would like to be enlightened as to your train of thought with your selections

Dom I think we are really lacking in KP depth. We have delisted a lot of talls over the last few years and haven't replaced them. Our list is very short compared to others and whilst we have some reasonable KPs in our starting line up our depth is sorely lacking.

Also whilst I am hoping that the likes of McKeever, Retzlaff and Cornelius can step up and become top echelon players they have a long way to go to get there. Kersten is a top level talent make no mistake and gives us a guy who could be a Coleman chance if he plays to his potential. We definately need those types of guys. He is very similar to Cornelius in a lot of respects being about the same height and both having great hands. The difference though is that whilst Cornelius timed at like 3.15 in the 20m Kersten times at 2.88. That burst of speed makes a massive difference. Kersten is also a better shot at goal.

As a KP and one who missed a lot of time with injury this year I expect him to take a year or two to get up to AFL speed. KPs just do so we have to plan for a couple of years ahead. Brown will be at retirement probably when Kersten is likely to be getting consistent games. With him leaving there is room in our forward line for three of Kersten, Cornelius, Karnezis and Retzlaff. Having a multi pronged attack is the way to go and having some really good marks in there is more than handy.

Patty has good enough height but he is not a key position and never will be. He does not have the strength and his game style is completely different. He will be a third tall or flanker. Some tall players are just not key position players eg Staker is 196cm but is clearly not a KP.

Lester is similar. He has a really good running game and I think the coaching staff really wants to use that. They will want to free him up and let him run off. Playing as a third tall would allow him to do that.

I also have a lot more confidence in the midfield depth than I do at the key positions especially after I took at midfielder at 8. I would expect 8 to be a goodie to add to our current crop. I would expect a couple at least of Bartlett, Polec, Green, O'Brien, Harwood, Bewick to take major steps forward and demand selection every week. Hanley and Banfield are supposed to be getting more midfield time. I also expect Zorko to get time in the middle. This is in addition to the guys who were playing through the middle at season end. Suddenly our midfield is looking very crowded with young talent who want and will probably deserve a spot. I don't think we need to throw another person into that mix when we have needs elsewhere.

Buntine I don't rate as highly as some. See my write up below:


Matthew Buntine
DOB 19/10/93 Ht 189 Wt 84

I have Buntine lower than most because to tell you the truth he did not do a hell of a lot for me at the Champs and think he is overrated by most. That’s not to say he is a bad player or won’t develop into a good player but merely if you gave me a choice there are quite a few guys I would take ahead of him. You don’t get many specialist small defenders being taken highly in the draft and even when they are it can be pretty hit and miss. A player he reminds me a lot of as a junior is David Myers who was taken pick 6 in the 2007 draft by Essendon. At the same age I would think them both very similar in height, athleticism, skill and game style. Myers hasn’t worked out as well as Bombers fans would have hoped and there is a similar danger with Buntine I think.

Buntine started the year with stress fractures in his legs (aka shin splints) which threw his whole year out. He played at the Champs but was largely underwhelming imho but continued to improve and finished the year strongly in the TAC. Regular TAC watchers are almost universally high on him. Personally I have a few concerns that his relatively poor showing in the Champs was not a function of his not being fully recovered from injury but rather him struggling with the step up in level and the increase in pace at Champs level. If he had trouble in that situation he is going to have lots of difficulties with the pace of AFL players especially with forward presses all the vogue. He is not particularly clean with his hands and is a regular two bite sort and if he does that under pressure AFL small forwards are going to eat him up.

I do like the hussle he shows though. He judges the ball well coming in and is not often beaten. In the air he is only average but when the ball hits the ground he is very tenacious with his chasing and pressuring. As mentioned he is not particularly clean but he does well to keep the ball in his area and work hard at getting it going the right way or stopping the opposition if they get it. He has good core strength and should be fine in this area as he develops a little bit. He has shown the ability to match up on talls or smalls and he will be a bit of a utility at AFL level. He works hard in contests and does clear his arms well to get away the handball. For an underage backman he is quite good around ruck situations.

He has a name as a good rebounder of the ball at TAC level but this was not evident at the Champs. In fact I can’t recall many occasions when he got the ball and ran from defense. If he got the ball in defense he usually got rid of it pretty quickly rather than tucking it under his arm and taking the game on. He is comfortable working up on the wing and when up there he can deliver it nicely into his forward line. I have some queries about his option taking but I have to say that usually when I questioned the option he took he still managed to get the ball where it needed to go without damage being done e.g. kicking it across goal. His skills generally are solid. I have some comments about him making a nice flat kick and others about him floating it a bit. I would expect that he can flatten out his kick pretty well as he develops physically and the issue is concentrated on in a full time environment.

I have been pretty harsh on him in my review but that was more to justify dropping him a bit. Overall I think he should develop into a pretty good back. He is very good defensively with good strength, judgment and closing speed and he has shown some very nice rebounding ability at TAC level. He carried an injury into the Combine and did not test for endurance or agility but managed a nice 2.98 in the 20m sprint. There are some queries that I have but there is also quite a bit to like.

 

[cjwalkley]

It's an interesting conundrum - mid or tall.

I think we need to follow the Geelong model, and draft best available early while building. If that entails two mids at picks 8 and 12, then fine. Admittedly Geelong had a huge win with Scarlett as a father-son, but other than that there tall players weren't much to write home about.

I'd then look at targetting talls at 30, 47 and the rookie draft, and see if we can pick a gem out of about 3-4 talls taken late. Almost all the talls in the draft have some question marks, so hopefully we can work those out with the late picks.

In relation to choosing a leading FF, are there many of those that are effective in today's football? It could be that there isn't many good ones in the league currently, but the style appears to be move the ball long and quick to contested situations.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Now I'm starting to warm to Tomlinson at 8 and the best remaining of those highly rated mids at 12.

I'm going to change my mind so often in the leadup to this draft.

 

[POBT]

He is very similar to Cornelius in a lot of respects being about the same height and both having great hands. The difference though is that whilst Cornelius timed at like 3.15 in the 20m Kersten times at 2.88. That burst of speed makes a massive difference. Kersten is also a better shot at goal.

One thing I have noticed about Kersten from the video footage only is that he has that ability to jump at the ball, using a fairly explosive leap. He meets the ball at the highest point more often than not. I dunno what his combine results were like in terms of that jumping ability but that seemed to me to allow him to play taller than his listed height.

To me, Cornelius has 1 excellent trait (sticky hands) and 1 trait which I think he is improving (leading). From what I've seen of Kersten, he has Cornelius covered in both those areas (at the same age), plus he is quick, can jump and seems very capable when the ball hit the deck.

I am pretty concerned about Kersten's fitness issue because I can't believe that you'd let yourself be underprepared in your draft year. Granted he had injury setbacks but itt isn't a good look to present slightly pudgy when you are going to be scrutinised to the hilt. Then again, the same knock applied to Cyril Rioli in 2007 and that didn't turn out too badly!

 

[Quigley]

Kersten was in the 6th percentile for skin folds at 73.4 (ie pudgey as hell) but was in the 87th percentile for running jump. His standing jump was only in the 38th percentile.

 

[Quigley]

Now I'm starting to warm to Tomlinson at 8 and the best remaining of those highly rated mids at 12.

I'm going to change my mind so often in the leadup to this draft.

We've all heard the good with Tomlinson but there are more than a few question marks imho.

Adam Tomlinson
DOB 10/8/93 Ht 192.5 Wt 88

First up an admission – I have not seen any of his last 6 games of the year. Accordingly to reports from those games he got his act together and showed enormous potential. There are a lot of very strong indications including from Emma Quayle that he is likely to go in the top 10 and as a consequence I have bumped him up from the mid 40s where I had him but in good conscience I just can’t go higher than this from what I saw in the Champs.

At the Champs Tomlinson was all over the place. He played quite a bit up forward, sometimes down back and was regularly just running around in the midfield. I see him as a KPD at AFL level but I think he is still very rough around the edges and a lot of work needs to be done.

I had thought he had grown this year into a very nice KP size but it turned out its just his PR team that has grown. He measured in at 192.5 at the champs which is materially different in KP terms to the 194 he was listed at. If he was a big leaper then I might be fine with the measure but in game situations he rarely leaves the ground and he pretty much exclusively uses his height to mark the ball. When that height comes in as shorter than expected and his arms measure short for a big guy then I think he could struggle against the bigger AFL talent and for mine he had trouble at the Champs for this reason. Marking wise he did well against TAC opposition and in fairness he did pick up a fair few marks at the Champs. On the other side though he also spilled a few and was outmarked or spoiled fairly regularly. He usually holds his feet pretty well in a contested marking situation and is often strong but I noticed that against smarter forwards he was often outmuscled. I noticed O’Brien in particular do this too him a couple of times in the Vic Country game. On the wing he seems much more solid under the ball for some reason.

Notwithstanding his measuring issues he did have some good results at the Combine and finished 7th in the 3km and 10th in the beep going 15.1 which is great for a big guy. His sprint results were a mixed bag and I don’t really know how to read them. He went under 3 for the 20m which is good but his repeat sprint time was in the bottom quarter of those tested. In the 20m he seemed to accelerate well over the 20m and with his endurance results I expected him to have a really good 30m repeat sprint time. So I am not sure what is happening there. On the park his agility also seems good but he tested poorly there as well being in the bottom 16% of those tested.

He doesn’t have great hands above his head and that is one reason I see him better down back where he can spoil the ball. As a forward he also tends to only give half hearted leads and does not get the separation he should given his athleticism. Another reason I don’t see him as a forward is that he is a pretty poor shot at goal. His drop can be a bit errant and he is prone to missing goals he should get. His field kicking can also be pretty inconsistent. He is a left footer and can deliver a beautifully weighted kick into 50 under pressure one minute and miss and easy target under no pressure the next.

Personally I think he seems prone to lapses of concentration. Dropping easy marks, being outmuscled by smaller opponents, failing to control his drop and missing easy shots on goals are often mental rather than physical errors. Down back where he is lead to the ball and is given a job I think he is better. He is a very nice physical specimen and he seems to have the athletic gifts to succeed if he can get the mental right. He is a capable tackler if the man comes into his area but he is not a big chaser at the moment. With his endurance though he could potentially become that. If his TAC coach has gotten him to concentrate on what he is doing and the light has gone on then I can understand the enthusiasm but on what I have seen I am skeptical.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Would you support taking him at 12 if there Quigs?