Opinion 2013 Win/Loss predictions

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Bazzar said:
I thought Essendon and Carlton were the most deluded on BF, but this takes the cake.
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They'll both be good midfields, looking side by side. In a few years Brisbane's will bat pretty deep. Probably a bit biased but again I think our top end is better.

Let's subtract Black and Tuck from the equation - both have maybe 2 years left at best

Brisbane - Rich, Redden, Rockliff, Zorko, Moloney, Green, Polec, Raines, Beams, Crisp, Yeo, Bewick, Harwood, plus maybe Mayes, Docherty and Karnezis in future as they build tanks.

Richmond - Cotchin, Deledio, Martin, Foley, Conca, Grigg, Vlastuin, Knights, Ellis, Jackson, Helbig, Edwards, Morris, White, King, Arnot plus maybe McDonough and McIntosh.

I'd take our list, but the gap isn't very big IMO. Our KPPs, as Enigmal said, is where we have them well and truly covered.
 
TheColeTrain said:
If they have the better midfield how come they never even come close to us in the midfield whenever we play and beat them and do it without much challenge?

You're so far off on this
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Read the post you quoted. WILL HAVE.


Stylo said:
They'll both be good midfields, looking side by side. In a few years Brisbane's will bat pretty deep. Probably a bit biased but again I think our top end is better.

Let's subtract Black and Tuck from the equation - both have maybe 2 years left at best

Brisbane - Rich, Redden, Rockliff, Zorko, Moloney, Green, Polec, Raines, Beams, Crisp, Yeo, Bewick, Harwood, plus maybe Mayes, Docherty and Karnezis in future as they build tanks.

Richmond - Cotchin, Deledio, Martin, Foley, Conca, Grigg, Vlastuin, Knights, Ellis, Jackson, Helbig, Edwards, Morris, White, King, Arnot plus maybe McDonough and McIntosh.

I'd take our list, but the gap isn't very big IMO. Our KPPs, as Enigmal said, is where we have them well and truly covered.
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At the ends of the ground, you have them well and truly covered. But those 9-15 ladder finish games are unpredictable.
I'm not going to cement either the Tiges or the Lions in for a win.
 

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Engimal said:
Everyone feels those WA games. Make you feel sick to your stomach before they ever start.
Especially in a final... ;)




A couple of things:

- The recent track record shows that we're likely to win. Therefor, I'd say that we're going to beat you. Nothing against Richmond, it's just that recent history shows that we're more likely to win. If you guys are lucky, you might slip a win. Plain and simple.
- And no top end? I'd take an Adams, Petrie or Swallow workhorse before any 'superstar' player, any day. Hell, look at what type of player the 2012 Brownlow Medalist is.

No malice intended. Just don't get too defensive when your side is still in a youthful, development stage.
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the last 3 games between our teams has been very close(2/1) so to me its 50/50.
 
I think the draw from last year had a big bearing on sides outcomes last year...

It could be said...ok i'll say it!...:D... that North slipped into the final 8 because of their easier draw...and not because they had a quality side...quality players yes...
 
JAKLAUGHING said:
I think the draw from last year had a big bearing on sides outcomes last year...

It could be said...ok i'll say it!...:D... that North slipped into the final 8 because of their easier draw...and not because they had a quality side...quality players yes...
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I think North have got natural improvement around the ground like us. Like others have said they could go either way. I think they will improve on last season.
 
tunksy said:
wow. yea we will do much better than that. o_O

50/50 with brisbane, how many in a row have we beaten them now? the margins are getting bigger too...
crows at mcg, win.
cats mcg, win (10 point loss at the cattery)
last time we played the swans at the scg the margin was 10 points. we smacked at the g a few times too.
dockers at mcg eugh, no we should beat them there this time. we played soooo poorly. we must atone for that.
always go 1-1 with the bombers.
must beat gcs and the blues eventually.
we must beat your mob for once too.

perhaps itd be good if you elaborated as to the margins. after all we did have a ton of very close losses last year. we will improve and win more games.

* on a lucky day we could beat anyone, so mark all the games with an asterix please.
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The worst case to put forward for the following year is the result from last year. If it makes you sleep better, run with it.

However the thought of playing the tiges with all those off season rejects from other clubs, is kind of making me think a spanking of the highest magintude will be on offer for the poor old tiges. 9 wins for the year and a ton of memberships chopped up by round 13. Enjoy.
 

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4tone said:
The worst case to put forward for the following year is the result from last year. If it makes you sleep better, run with it.

However the thought of playing the tiges with all those off season rejects from other clubs, is kind of making me think a spanking of the highest magintude will be on offer for the poor old tiges. 9 wins for the year and a ton of memberships chopped up by round 13. Enjoy.
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If it makes you sleep better, run with it. ;)
 
4tone said:
The worst case to put forward for the following year is the result from last year. If it makes you sleep better, run with it.

However the thought of playing the tiges with all those off season rejects from other clubs, is kind of making me think a spanking of the highest magintude will be on offer for the poor old tiges. 9 wins for the year and a ton of memberships chopped up by round 13. Enjoy.
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If you want to post over here make sure you know what you're talking about which you clearly don't. Don't want to read uneducated thoughts on rookie list selections that were picked to cover any potential injuries.
 
4tone said:
The worst case to put forward for the following year is the result from last year. If it makes you sleep better, run with it.

However the thought of playing the tiges with all those off season rejects from other clubs, is kind of making me think a spanking of the highest magintude will be on offer for the poor old tiges. 9 wins for the year and a ton of memberships chopped up by round 13. Enjoy.
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Hows Ben Hudson going??
 
Engimal's analysis is certainly plausible. It is at least as plausible as some of the Richmond supporters' guestimates and more plausible than others' to be fair.
I'd like to think it is something of a worst case scenario, however, something that the older Tigers here might be used to expecting. It could happen but there are finally reasons why some of those 50-50s might finally move in our direction.
The Champions Data analysis from the Richmond Tiger Talk podcast suggests that Richmond's 2012 win-loss could and should have been better, and that luck plays a part in narrow defeats. It suggests that percentage is a better predictor of a team's likely performance the following year than is previous win-loss.
There are a couple of wildcards.
One team Richmond needs to beat twice to make finals in my opinion is Essendon. How much will Goddard improve Essendon? A lot I would think.
I also feel Richmond would need to defeat Carlton at least once. Will Carlton be better or worse under Malthouse? Was Carlton's wood on Richmond partially due to Ratten's coaching?
We can't count on defeating Hawthorn and Sydney again, but if we can convert those awful GWS and Port Adelaide results, add a couple of wins at the expense of Essendon and Carlton, and suddenly you are looking at about 12-13 wins.
13 wins and we could sneak into the eight. I'd take that.
 
Engimal said:
Was interested in Richmond's draw and came across this. Thought I'd have a crack. ;)

  1. Carlt @ MCG = L *
  2. Saints @ mcg = W
  3. Doggies @ es = W
  4. Pies @ mcg = L
  5. Dockers @ ps = L
  6. Cats @ mcg = L
  7. Port @ as = W
  8. Melb @ mcg = W
  9. Ess @ mcg = 50/50 *
  10. Eagles @ ps = L
  11. Bye
  12. Adel @ mcg = L
  13. Doggies @ es = W
  14. Saints @ mcg = W
  15. North @ es = L *
  16. Suns @ caz = W (Finally ;) )
  17. Dockers @ mcg = L
  18. Syd @ scg = L
  19. Haw @ mcg = L
  20. Bris @ mcg = 50/50 *
  21. Carlt @ mcg = L *
  22. GWS @ sk = W
  23. Ess @ mcg = 50/50 *
8 Wins - 11 Losses - (2 50/50s that I was unsure of)
The ones I marked with an asterisk were losses or 50/50s that I deemed potential wins, on a lucky day.
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Be fair to Engimal guys: Its not a bad call: and if I were an outsider looking in (which he clearly acknowledged he is).. I would think about the same: do the same exercise on NM's, Carltons or Essendons draw and you'd have similar less optimistic views than their hopes.. Brisbane as well are a serious darkhorse: and Round 20 could end up being a season decider for both teams.

If you took a poll of Richmond vs non-Richmond estimates our average would be around 13-14 wins and non-Richmond average would be around 9 wins I reckon. It doesnt take many 50/50's to sway a season: just as the club that lost 3 games in a row by less than a kick!
 
  1. Carlt @ MCG = 50/50
  2. Saints @ mcg = W
  3. Doggies @ es = W
  4. Pies @ mcg = L
  5. Dockers @ ps = L
  6. Cats @ mcg = 50/50
  7. Port @ as = W
  8. Melb @ mcg = W
  9. Ess @ mcg = 50/50
  10. Eagles @ ps = L
  11. Bye
  12. Adel @ mcg = 50/50
  13. Doggies @ es = W
  14. Saints @ mcg = W
  15. North @ es = 50/50
  16. Suns @ caz = W
  17. Dockers @ mcg = 50/50
  18. Syd @ scg = L
  19. Haw @ mcg = L
  20. Bris @ mcg = W
  21. Carlt @ mcg = 50/50
  22. GWS @ sk = W
  23. Ess @ mcg = 50/50
So that's 9 wins, 5 loses and 8 50/50s. Biggest worries are we need to beat the saints twice (at the MCG should help) and we need to beat Carlton and Essendon once. Winnable games against Geelong, Adelaide and Fremantle at the MCG.
 
If we improve like i hope, then-
  1. Carltank @ MCG = W
  2. Saints @ mcg = W
  3. Doggies @ es = W
  4. Pies @ mcg = L
  5. Dockers @ ps = L
  6. Cats @ mcg = w
  7. Port @ as = W
  8. Melb @ mcg = W
  9. Ess @ mcg = W
  10. Eagles @ ps = L
  11. Bye
  12. Adel @ mcg = W
  13. Doggies @ es = W
  14. Saints @ mcg = W
  15. North @ es = 50/50
  16. Suns @ caz = W
  17. Dockers @ mcg = 50/50
  18. Syd @ scg = 50/50
  19. Haw @ mcg = L
  20. Bris @ mcg = W
  21. Carltank @ mcg = W
  22. GWS @ sk = W
  23. Ess @ mcg = W
 
What everyone needs to remember is that for every team that reckons they can get up into the 8, a finalis from 2012 has to drop out. So look at who is bouyant about moving up and then figure who might drop out.

First cross out the no hope sides of GWS, GCS, Power, Doggies, Tankers oops I mean Melb and probably the best of these St.Kilda who are on the way down and Brisbane who are on the way up. That leaves 11 in real contention.

Richmond, Essendon and Carlton are the three sides who genuinely beieve they will make the 8 in 2013 so who will drop out and why?
Hawthorn - flag favourites only lost a couple of fringe players and gained what they needed - Lake
Sydney - second favourites lost nobody gained a fresh Tippett and got exciting kids waiting
Adelaide - lost Tippett but are on the up and got the 4th easest draw, go figure that!
Collingwood - lost Dawes & Wellingham who were fringish, gained Lynch & Young & a fit Krakouer & Ball
WCE - cruelled by injury last year but all fit for 2013, gained more than they lost in trades
Fremantle - gained Danyle Pearce and came with a rush late 2012. Will be better
Geelong - gained more than they lost and have exciting kids pushing through
North Melb - no Boomer for 6 weeks, hardest draw of any team, go figure that too! Vulnerable

I can only see North Melbourne going out so games between Richmond, Essendon and Carlton are 8 point games and you have them both twice.

Good luck Tigers, if you finish 9th again the Coodabeen Champions will roll out those 9th placed songs about you!
 
Dangerousfield said:
What everyone needs to remember is that for every team that reckons they can get up into the 8, a finalis from 2012 has to drop out. So look at who is bouyant about moving up and then figure who might drop out.

First cross out the no hope sides of GWS, GCS, Power, Doggies, Tankers oops I mean Melb and probably the best of these St.Kilda who are on the way down and Brisbane who are on the way up. That leaves 11 in real contention.

Richmond, Essendon and Carlton are the three sides who genuinely beieve they will make the 8 in 2013 so who will drop out and why?
Hawthorn - flag favourites only lost a couple of fringe players and gained what they needed - Lake
Sydney - second favourites lost nobody gained a fresh Tippett and got exciting kids waiting
Adelaide - lost Tippett but are on the up and got the 4th easest draw, go figure that!
Collingwood - lost Dawes & Wellingham who were fringish, gained Lynch & Young & a fit Krakouer & Ball
WCE - cruelled by injury last year but all fit for 2013, gained more than they lost in trades
Fremantle - gained Danyle Pearce and came with a rush late 2012. Will be better
Geelong - gained more than they lost and have exciting kids pushing through
North Melb - no Boomer for 6 weeks, hardest draw of any team, go figure that too! Vulnerable

I can only see North Melbourne going out so games between Richmond, Essendon and Carlton are 8 point games and you have them both twice.

Good luck Tigers, if you finish 9th again the Coodabeen Champions will roll out those 9th placed songs about you!
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we do have to win at least half of the ess/carl games and wins v top 8 teams are gold.
 
Dangerousfield said:
What everyone needs to remember is that for every team that reckons they can get up into the 8, a finalis from 2012 has to drop out. So look at who is bouyant about moving up and then figure who might drop out.

First cross out the no hope sides of GWS, GCS, Power, Doggies, Tankers oops I mean Melb and probably the best of these St.Kilda who are on the way down and Brisbane who are on the way up. That leaves 11 in real contention.

Richmond, Essendon and Carlton are the three sides who genuinely beieve they will make the 8 in 2013 so who will drop out and why?
Hawthorn - flag favourites only lost a couple of fringe players and gained what they needed - Lake
Sydney - second favourites lost nobody gained a fresh Tippett and got exciting kids waiting
Adelaide - lost Tippett but are on the up and got the 4th easest draw, go figure that!
Collingwood - lost Dawes & Wellingham who were fringish, gained Lynch & Young & a fit Krakouer & Ball
WCE - cruelled by injury last year but all fit for 2013, gained more than they lost in trades
Fremantle - gained Danyle Pearce and came with a rush late 2012. Will be better
Geelong - gained more than they lost and have exciting kids pushing through
North Melb - no Boomer for 6 weeks, hardest draw of any team, go figure that too! Vulnerable

I can only see North Melbourne going out so games between Richmond, Essendon and Carlton are 8 point games and you have them both twice.

Good luck Tigers, if you finish 9th again the Coodabeen Champions will roll out those 9th placed songs about you!
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Well thought out post, but you lost me when you mentioned 9th :mad:

Personally I expect the Cats and Adelaide to drop a little but will it be enough?
 
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