Opinion 2013 Win/Loss predictions

[vmasco]

So reading through the other threads looking ahead to next season, the consensus is we should expect to compete for a place in the finals.

An aspect that stands out for me is for the first time in ages we can consider each round as a win or to go either way. Penciling in losses is no longer the default option. We have now a truly competitive group of players and every game presents a chance at the four points.

So here's my predictions of results round by round:

1. Carlt @ MCG Maybe+ (60:40 win:loss)
2. Saints @ mcg M+
3. Doggies @ es Win
4. Pies @ mcg Maybe- (40:60 win:loss)
5. Dockers @ ps M-
6. Cats @ mcg M+
7. Port @ as W
8. Melb @ mcg W
9. Ess @ mcg W
10. Eagles @ ps M-
11. Bye
12. Adel @ mcg M+
13. Doggies @ es W
14. Saints @ mcg M+
15. North @ es W
16. Suns @ caz W
17. Dockers @ mcg M-
18. Syd @ scg M-
19. Haw @ mcg M-
20. Bris @ mcg W
21. Carlt @ mcg W
22. GWS @ sk W
23. Ess @ mcg W

Four wins at end of Home and Away would be fantastic momentum should we find ourselves with a place in the finals

Wins = 11
Maybes+ = 5
Maybes- = 6

Best case - say we lose only the Maybe- games we get 16/6 and a top 4 finish

Worst case - 11/11 = 9th (or worse) and meltdown on the BF Richmond board

I hope to see us with around 12 - 14 wins, ending up somewhere between 8th - 6th.

 

[sregit]

I would love to win 14, however, I can not see us achieving more than 12. 13 at best. We are not yet top 4 material in my opinion. We have potential but still lack consistency. 7 - 10th is our likely finishing position. We are a 50/50 chance of making it.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

I'll stick my neck out and say 15-17

Here's how I see each game with how I view the odds of winning:

1. Carlt @ MCG - 45% chance of winning
2. Saints @ mcg - 90% chance of winning
3. Doggies @ es - 95% chance of winning
4. Pies @ mcg - 35% chance of winning
5. Dockers @ ps - 30% chance of winning
6. Cats @ mcg - 65% chance of winning
7. Port @ as - 80% chance of winning
8. Melb @ mcg - 85% chance of winning
9. Ess @ mcg - 65% chance of winning
10. Eagles @ ps - 25% chance of winning
11. Bye
12. Adel @ mcg - 65% chance of winning
13. Doggies @ es - 95% chance of winning
14. Saints @ mcg - 90% chance of winning
15. North @ es - 65% chance of winning
16. Suns @ caz - 65% chance of winning
17. Dockers @ mcg - 60% chance of winning
18. Syd @ scg - 30% chance of winning
19. Haw @ mcg - 50% chance of winning
20. Bris @ mcg - 90% chance of winning
21. Carlt @ mcg - 45% chance of winning
22. GWS @ sk - 85% chance of winning
23. Ess @ mcg - 75% chance of winning

If you add up those odds it comes out at 14.3 wins which is a bit under my prediction but I reckon most of those 40-60% games will be wins.

 

[BlackFrancis]

Including the Premiership Victory or just H&A?

 

[The full package]

I would love to win 14, however, I can not see us achieving more than 12. 13 at best. We are not yet top 4 material in my opinion. We have potential but still lack consistency. 7 - 10th is our likely finishing position. We are a 50/50 chance of making it.

I'm going the optimism route, baring injuries I say we will smash them in the first half of the year, struggle for 1-3 rounds, then bounce back for a strong finish. Play finals, win one, get some vital finals experince and look out 2014.

 

[Dragonss]

If we lose to Gold Coast. OMG.

 

[Groupie_]

If we lose to Gold Coast. OMG.

3rd time lucky

No GUS and Maric should play. If he doesn't for some reason the big o will put in a better performance than Gus.

 

[theflea]

around 12/13 wins.

 

[TigerMoz1973]

If we lose to Gold Coast. OMG.

Hardwick bye bye if we lose to GC. Won't happen this time though. We even trained part of our pre-season up there to prepare. It's a lock

 

[TigerMoz1973]

To make finals the Tiges need to be better than the teams around them. We play Carl, Ess, St K, W.B, Freo twice. Even with a few injuries we now have depth which is more than I can say for Carlton (who also now have a coach that really isn't aligned with their player style).

We need to beat all the teams below us, draw even against the teams we play twice (except St. K and W.B) and still manufacture 3 wins against the remaining 7 top 8 sides... The most likely candidates are Geelong, Adelaide, Collingwood (all at the G) and North.

It is interesting that the last 4 games of the season are against Brissy, Carl, Ess, GWS. If we have won 10 games by round 19 then we're a red hot chance to do it.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

A lazy 14 Wins...

 

[Ned_Flanders]

13 for me

 

[SunshineBoy]

3rd time lucky

No GUS and Maric should play. If he doesn't for some reason the big o will put in a better performance than Gus.

We will rest maric and play the big O

 

[TOOs_Finest]

16 - 5 - 1

 

[acr2751]

22-0 going into the finals

 

[SunshineBoy]

14-8. 2finals

 

[djspank]

We will smash the Saints both games this year.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Pencilled in 4 cert wins in the first 10 games.Which leaves us around 8-9 wins in the last 12 games to make it.
We have to win a few of those 50/50 games in the first 10 to put less pressure on ourselves in the run home.
We are not home and hosed to make finals people.

 

[CoggaRules]

If we win round 1, which I am tipping is on the cards this year, then we will jump out of the gates with a run of wins and basically go into the game against the Pies undefeated, which means the G will be a rockin.

 

[vmasco]

I'll stick my neck out and say 15-17

Here's how I see each game with how I view the odds of winning:

Carlt @ MCG - 45% chance of winning
2.Saints @ mcg - 90% chance of winning.....

...........
14.Saints @ mcg - 90% chance of winning

If you add up those odds it comes out at 14.3 wins which is a bit under my prediction but I reckon most of those 40-60% games will be wins.

We will smash the Saints both games this year.

No love for the 'aints. Would be good to increase the margin on last years win and wipe that smirk off the Tip-Rats face.

22-0 going into the finals

I like your optimism

I also want to see us smash the Suns to get that pesky little two year old monkey off the back of the gorilla that has been on our back for the last thirty years. We will catapult them both into outer space after which they will come back down and land on Collingwood and Fremantle.

 

[JR82]

if that happens RD 4 will be a sellout!

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

If we win round 1, which I am tipping is on the cards this year, then we will jump out of the gates with a run of wins and basically go into the game against the Pies undefeated, which means the G will be a rockin.

Yep.As silly as it sounds,the rnd 1 clash against the Blues is a must win.IMO.

 

[JR82]

sure is, if we can do them, they play Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast (Perth, OUCH) then Adelaide (MCG) in the next 4 games. they could easily be 1-4, plus with Mick being there now after paying Ratten out his last year, the preassure will be right on them.

 

[Heisenberg_]

sure is, if we can do them, they play Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast (Perth, OUCH) then Adelaide (MCG) in the next 4 games. they could easily be 1-4, plus with Mick being there now after paying Ratten out his last year, the preassure will be right on them.

They could easily be 0-6.
How amazing would that be?

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

Shoulda checked the Caretakers tough opening 2013 draw before you took on their coaching gig Madhouse..

Could be a big stuff up on your record....

Bet Ratten will be watching....