Preview 2016 Grand Final: Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs

[Mr Mediocracy]

Win the contested ball, stop the Dogs run from back to forward and there'll be a Swans win.

Dogs on weekend compressed their squad up near half way and ran from half back making free player into the forward line. Could hurt the Swans if that happens again. Think Swans have more class though and should get the win.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

The best thing about getting a new opponent for the Grand Final? I get to do a new run of stats

First the raw totals for the season so far:

View attachment 292820
Sydney shade the Dogs in most areas, notably Tackles, Hitouts, Contested Possessions, Contested Marks, and of course Goals. The Dogs can lay claim to more Handballs, Uncontested Possessions, and slightly better Disposal Efficiency.

When we narrow the frame to other top 8 sides only, it looks slightly different:

View attachment 292826
Compared to Sydney, when playing against other top 8 sides (including the finals so far), that the Dogs do have a slight lead in both Contested and Uncontested Possessions. They also have a sizeable lead in Inside 50s, Clearances and One Percenters. But the Swans clearly claim the ascendancy in Contested Marks, Hitouts, Tackles, Disposal Efficiency, and the key scoring areas of Goals, Goal Assists and Goal Accuracy.

Drilling further down into which stats differentials are most important:

View attachment 292832

We can see some interesting trends. For example, while we know the Swans don't really care about the Inside 50 differential, the Dogs do - moreover, they typically need to win it by 10+ to win the game. Their average against top 8 sides this season is +10... so we'll see how they go. The Dogs large advantage against Top 8 sides in Uncontested Possession doesn't really correlate with their final score, which is sad for them, but if they do win this stat it will go a long way towards preventing Sydney from getting their game going. The Contested Possessions stat is almost the mirror image.

Marks in 50 are also important to the Dogs, and with this stat likely to break even they may need other avenues to goal. Two other stats counting in our favour are relative Disposal Efficiency, and relative Goal Accuracy. Both of these statistics are important to both sides, although Goal Accuracy is more important to the Dogs, and Disposal Efficiency for the Swans. Sydney are ahead in both of these categories against other top 8 sides, with the discrepancy between the Bulldog's -10% goal accuracy and the Swans +5% particularly savage.

In summary: look for the Dogs to win more of the ball, but despite getting it inside 50 an extra 10 - 20 times, the Swans defenders should prevent them from taking as many marks as they need. Additionally, expect the Swans' marking of the corridor to push the Dogs shots away from their ideal zones, with the result that they will miss more often, appearing wasteful in front of goal. Meanwhile, the Swans' attacking half-backs will seek to rebound the ball quickly up the ground, setting up fewer but more advantageous scoring shots, which should be just enough to secure a victory in a tight entertaining game.

Carn you mighty Bloods!

Ah'm just lurven all a them purty colours.

 

[The Gong]

This is going to be such a long week. I don't think I'm going to be very productive at work.

Carn Swannies!

 

[connolly]

If AA, Mills and or McVeigh are deemed to be fit, they will all play meaning there will be two changes. That being the case, two players are going to be very, very unlucky. No-one deserves to be dropped from the team that has played the last two weeks but that is the unfortunate reality of Grand Finals. You need at least 26 or so very good players to get to a grand final position and if all are fit on that day, those on the periphery normally know where they stand. As good as they have been in their past couple of games, they are still not deemed to be the "best 22".
I really feel so sorry for Laidler who is probably the first of the omissions even though he did a great job last Friday night, but is he a better option than Mills? Probably not. This is based on the assumption Mills is 100% fit. Not 90% but 100%.
McVeigh is our captain and if deemed to be fit, there is no way he will not be named. His leadership and direction in the backline is worth far more than he getting 30 possessions. So who goes to make way for him? I fear it is probably Marsh even though he has done everything asked of him in recent weeks. It certainly won't be Jones who is definitely in our best 22. Only other possibility would be Hewett but I see that as unlikely.
For those who have made earlier comments about the lack of media coverage for the Swans over the past day or two, as a Victorian Swans member I am just used to it. I still get really pissed off about it but it is what it is. even though we get huge numbers at all Melbourne games the media here seem to think that no-one in Victoria barracks for the swans hence we get ignored.
Even if we are to win next Saturday, the media focus here will still be 75% based on "what a great effort it was by the dogs to make the GF".
Then again, it could be worse. I could be a Melbourne Storm supporter. They're in the GF next week too but they will get a 1 page spread about 15 pages in.

What leadership in the backline does McVeigh bring???? We had 70 plus entries into our backline against Geelong and we held them to a losing score. Grundy leads that backline and McVeigh primarily plays on a wing. If we are going to let sentiment rule the McVeigh decision well fair enough. But in GF clubs have to be ruthless. If we drop a fast young mid Hewitt for McVeigh that will be a poor decision. As for Marsh he is a perfect fit for Stringer. Laidler can take the second weakest player in the comp Cordy. Ramps. Jones and Smith can all take their smaller forwards who are their main goal scorers. So just who does McVeigh match up on? A GF is no place for a fringe player standing off the back of packs waiting for the uncontested possession. No names no pack drill.

 

[connolly]

I think marsh could take stinger

Hewett to johanison as defensive forwRd

Surely after last night horse will trying stop johanison

I agree with Marsh but I think Rohan should take johanison. He might be too fast for Hewitt

 

[connolly]

make no comments on this other than in relation to 5.

the multi-millionaire also was the first to work out how to sue csr for asbestos related injuries - an action that the whole of australia and probably the world should thank him for. it is the cause of one disease which has basically a 100% morbidity rate and sundry others which will kill you. it was long known to have fatal consequences and yet continued to be sold.

ambulance chasing has a poor reputation. it always amazes me that the businesses which kill people and destroy lives and livelihoods (thinking of bhp in the context of PNG and more recently Brazil) seem to end up smelling of roses.

This is a footy web site so I am constrained. But asbestos actions in Australian courts started long before fat head hopped in. Not sure he took on Orica actually. And I certainly wasn't defending companies that injure workers.

 

[MC Bad Genius]

Seems a perfect post to tag this on to: Teams comparison between our round 15 game and the prelims
View attachment 292840

So we've essentially replaced:
Rose, Nankervis, Sinclair, Towers
with
Naismith, Tippett, Papley, XR.

IMO, these are all upgrades. Tipp/Naismith are a far, far better combo than Sinclair/Nank. Papley is much better than Rose, and XR has been pretty effective while Towers was "iffy".

On the other side, they've lost some quality in Wallis, a good tall forward in Redpath, and a pretty good defender in Adams. Mclean and Dunkley are OK, but not as good as their outs.

Overall i'd say we are a fair bit stronger than round 15, while they are a little weaker if anything.

Marsh and Aliir currently have the spots of the injured McVeigh and Mills. But you'd think Laidler is first out, so if one of them get up, they'll likely take his spot. The other one on shaky ground is Marsh, who has been fine, but not a standout. You'd think he's an automatic out for either McVeigh or Mills, who both offer more.

I think you're under-playing the Dogs ins a little bit and you've completely left out Dalhaus, who is a very good player and integral to their midfield.

But forget about matchups. If we bring the intensity and ferocity at the contest of the last two weeks, the Dogs won't stand a chance. They're tough and they will scrap right to the final siren, but no team in the league can compete with that. We made both Adelaide and Geelong look like bottom 4 sides and we'll do the same to the Dogs if we're switched on from the opening bounce like that again.

 

[Punts]

Both macca and mills trained fully yesterday ( Horse )

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I thought this was interesting and perhaps shows even more the year we have had.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...n/news-story/b76bccce8070814b68f5f30af16327d5

 

[PeaTea]

55,000 people have voted on the AFL website and 60% reckon the Dogs will win.

That's the emotion of people days after the game.
You should crush them.

 

[McRobie]

Both macca and mills trained fully yesterday ( Horse )

Laidler and maybe Hewett out?

 

[SilentHunter_]

Geez it'd be harsh on Hewett if he got omitted. It should be Marsh and Laidler if it came down to it imo.

 

[grimlock]

Longmire press conference

Longmire on Aliir: He has a bit to do this week so we will see how the week pans out.
Longmire: Jarrad McVeigh + Callum Mills both trained yesterday. They won't be part of today's session. We will make the call later in week.
Longmire on McVeigh: We will sit down see how he feels and make the decision together.
Longmire on Ted Richards possible selection: It just depends on what we need.

Poor journos. Easier to extract blood from a stone

 

[TripleB]

Longmire press conference

Longmire on Ted Richards possible selection: It just depends on what we need.

Dogs winning thru would have been the final nail in Teddy's coffin I imagine.

A case for him could have been mounted playing GWS and their tall forwards, but the Dogs need more Rampe/Marsh/Smith type defenders...

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

I want to see AA go to Stringer. Hewett plays.

A very unlucky Marsh to go out first followed by an even unluckier Laidler in the event that Mills and McVeigh are fit.

If taking a punt on only one of the two, I'd punt on Mills.

 

[Banyo Bloods]

This is going to be such a long week. I don't think I'm going to be very productive at work.

Carn Swannies!

Reading your post when I should be working is about where I'm at too.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Try working for yourself. Sure, no threat of getting sacked, just of your kids eating boiled spuds for a week!

 

[S120]

I want to see AA go to Stringer. Hewett plays.

A very unlucky Marsh to go out first followed by an even unluckier Laidler in the event that Mills and McVeigh are fit.

If taking a punt on only one of the two, I'd punt on Mills.

Yep I agree. Marsh is first out for Mills/McVeigh and if both are completely and utterly fit to play, Laidler is the unlucky one to go.

Last time we played the Dogs Mills played a lot of the game on Jake Stringer and got beaten. It'll be fascinating to see who Longmire goes with if Mills is fit this time.

 

[Refried Noodle]

Here's hoping all the media attention and narrative, at least in Melbourne, will be all about the Bulldogs. And it will be.

Swans will be business like, they've been here before, the dogs haven't, they could easily get swept up in all the emotion of the week.

Plus the determination to atone for 2014.

Too optimistic?

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Yep I agree. Marsh is first out for Mills/McVeigh and if both are completely and utterly fit to play, Laidler is the unlucky one to go.

Last time we played the Dogs Mills played a lot of the game on Jake Stringer and got beaten. It'll be fascinating to see who Longmire goes with if Mills is fit this time.

Yeah I just don't think Mills is a great match up for him.

I think Aliir will mess with his head though.

 

[momentbymoment]

So 2 weeks ago after gws?

Basically.
I get the same vibe from Tich who seemed distracted mid season but is now very much in the game. Of course, it could be bs but what the hell, that's what forums are for.

 

[Lakeside Swan]

Following asenath's excellent stats, here's the expected media allocations for the week....


View attachment 292873

I'm listening to KB on SEN this morning. The only mention of the Swans was about 1 minute on our injuries. 99% of the talk has been Bulldogs and how the whole state will be barracking for them. I thought that they would be a little more objective.

 

[Lakeside Swan]

We shouldn't panic if McVeigh is named. He's one player and yeah he's soft and slow but one player will not lose us this game so long as he performs his role. Besides, he'd only be replacing Laidler or Marsh who haven't exactly been better than McVeigh. I just want Aliir to get up for this game more than anything

I want Mills to get up. He's more important that Aliir and McVeigh combined.

 

[Lakeside Swan]

Both macca and mills trained fully yesterday ( Horse )

And Aliir didn't :-(

 

[Punts]

And Aliir didn't :-(

He will be right