AFL 2017 AFL Futures

[Jugada]

Thanks for the abuse mate - appreciate it

You misinterpreted my question to the responders. My point was if GWS wins next year's flag and I had put say my entire bank on it then I have increased my bank by 350% over 20 months. That is not easy to do for most people.

If guys like you are hitting consistently 18% POT (congrats) then I can understand why you would have no interest in a bet of this type. Potentially guys like Jugada and X_Box_X may also be able to do better than 350% bank growth over 20 months with their methods. Hence the question.

I was just questioning the "why would you tie your money up for that period" logic. If you are consistently profitable over that period on your bets and you can beat the 350% growth I was quoting then I understand. However for the majority more bets doesn't always equal more profit.

Putting your entire bank on 1 bet is just as awful. You are acting like this bet is a guaranteed win with that logic anyway. You are more likely to lose 100% of your bankroll

Lets say you put $1000 on them at $3.50 now and best case scenario for you the Giants dominate the 2018 season and go into the finals as the $2 favourite. By that stage you would have still only theoretically turned your $1000 into $1750. Hardly worth it for 19 months of no betting. Even if you have no edge you could arb/promo hunt and turn that $1000 into more than $1750 in that time with little effort and no risk

I mean its your money so do what you want, but its a terrible way to bet if you take your punting even half seriously. If you dont bet much and dont plan to for the next year and a half and just want it as a speculative bet for interest then go to town but i would never recommend having money tied up for that long or putting your entire bank on one bet

 

[Youdy]

jack steven at 67$ at the Tab for the brownlow seems somewhat overs

Not as good as the 81's they had, but he's pegged at 40$~ everywhere else

 

[Sausage Legs]

I'm sure the bookies like futures bets, but the guy asks a question and that means he's trying to prove he's a better punter than anyone else? Everyone jumped down his throat and he had a go back.

Interested about how long you should tie up your money for though? I'm on GWS for top 4 for $1.90. Eight months wait, but i'm willing to do that if I have high confidence in the bet. I'm sure others have done the same.

At least in future sports bets u know ur team is in the running. Future horse bets could be dead before the race starts. Gws top 4 1.90. I'm callin the cops

 

[Cold Sober]

Watson E/W Brownlow bet.

 

[Angus Young]

GWS top 4 looks tasty

 

[Dr Whoooooooo]

I don't understand the amount of people who want to bet with their heart and back the side they barrack for. Not smart betting in my book. Does it add to your interest in the season and the amount at stake is minimal ?? Otherwise I think it's silly.

... they are not being loyal if they dont back their own team.

 

[True North]

My only season long bet so far is North to finish above Collingwood $2.55 at Ladbrokes.

I see Collingwood finishing no better than 15th and I don't see my team as 16,17,18.

I'll take Collingwood on in many ways over the next couple of days, just figuring out the best value atm.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

What are the Hawks paying for the wooden spoon?

 

[Oraz]

Richmond 3.50 to miss the top 8
Very tempting

 

[Angus Young]

Richmond 3.50 to miss the top 8
Very tempting

yep also sydney to make 8 after they lose to GWS will be out to $3

 

[benno_]

I've been eyeing off the Swans too for the last couple of weeks, will be tempting if they get to $3. How many wins do we think they would need to to get to sneak into the 8? At a glance my very rough guess atm has them finishing on about 13ish wins if a lot goes right for them after round 5.

 

[Angus Young]

I've been eyeing off the Swans too for the last couple of weeks, will be tempting if they get to $3. How many wins do we think they would need to to get to sneak into the 8? At a glance my very rough guess atm has them finishing on about 13ish wins if a lot goes right for them after round 5.

12 or 13...

They are 2.60 now so should get to $3 after GWS

but after they go 0-5 they should win 4 in a row bringing them right back to the middle pack of teams.
They will only get better from there.

 

[benno_]

The more I think about it the less I like the value of Swans just due to how many things would need to go right with no slip ups to make the 8.

Instead I'm preferring the value of some of the individual 'must win' games for them such as Swans $1.80 vs Saints in round 9 (ladbrokes). You'd think if they're any chance of making the 8 they must win these sorts of games.

 

[Angus Young]

The more I think about it the less I like the value of Swans just due to how many things would need to go right with no slip ups to make the 8.

Instead I'm preferring the value of some of the individual 'must win' games for them such as Swans $1.80 vs Saints in round 9 (ladbrokes). You'd think if they're any chance of making the 8 they must win these sorts of games.

Their loss to Collingwood at home all of a sudden looks real bad...They could be worse than we thought

 

[Angus Young]

I've been eyeing off the Swans too for the last couple of weeks, will be tempting if they get to $3. How many wins do we think they would need to to get to sneak into the 8? At a glance my very rough guess atm has them finishing on about 13ish wins if a lot goes right for them after round 5.

3.70 now. But u will need some balls to pull the trigger on that if u bet large.

 

[CarterS]

Took St Kilda to make the 8 a couple of weeks ago @ 4.50. Big win in the 50/50 game against Collingwood saw the price approximately half.

 

[benno_]

3.70 now. But u will need some balls to pull the trigger on that if u bet large.

Yeah the odds are tempting, but still quite risky, I decided the other day to focus on their individual games.

Ended up going with:

2.2U Swans -18.5 vs Carlton (lines now around -40.5)

4U Swans vs the Saints @1.80 (in to 1.72 now, hoping it drops a bit more closer to the game when Swans get some form because I'll probably cash out/hedge part of it)

 

[mookieb]

Took St Kilda to make the 8 a couple of weeks ago @ 4.50. Big win in the 50/50 game against Collingwood saw the price approximately half.

Yeah I was sniffing around that a little while ago, but didn't pull the trigger. I rate their chances quite highly especially as one of their chief rivals Melbourne has lost Gawn and has been a bit flaky. Would have been the perfect home for a couple of hundred in bonus bets.

 

[Angus Young]

Took St Kilda to make the 8 a couple of weeks ago @ 4.50. Big win in the 50/50 game against Collingwood saw the price approximately half.

If they win today u r sitting pretty

 

[blitzer]

The swans bet is quite tempting but ultimately I think i'll refrain from having my money sit there for so long.

Plus I think its a mistake to act like the 0-5 start doesn't mean anything and that they are the same Swans from the last few years. The difference has been more than just a few injuries. It wouldn't be often that a team starts this badly and then goes on a massive run of successive games I guess you could argue that Richmond did something similar a few years back but Its not really something that any team can rely on.

 

[Oraz]

Do you guys still reckon saints can make the 8?


Also anyone like Richmond to not make the final 8 at 4.50?

They have an easy draw but think their ladder position is extremely flattering at the moment.


Could easily lose to sides such as freo, north, st kilda, essendon, port etc

thoughts?
thinking about investing 5-10u

 

[Rourke]

Also anyone like Richmond to not make the final 8 at 4.50?

They have an easy draw but think their ladder position is extremely flattering at the moment.


Could easily lose to sides such as freo, north, st kilda, essendon, port etc

thoughts?

I reckon the gap in quality this year is between sixth (Richmond) and seventh (probably West Coast). Struggling to find another team that will top 11 wins, and the Tigers are almost halfway there. Will fall in even if they drop off from here.

 

[benji21]

Sportsbet have an adelaide first loss/undefeated market, looking ahead there aren't to many matches that should trouble them except maybe geelong but 3.5 feels a bit short for them, i think you'd get 3.5 if they are still undefeated at that stage, any thoughts?

 

[iluvparis]

Sportsbet have an adelaide first loss/undefeated market, looking ahead there aren't to many matches that should trouble them except maybe geelong but 3.5 feels a bit short for them, i think you'd get 3.5 if they are still undefeated at that stage, any thoughts?

Seems solid unders - $3.50 to go undefeated is implied odds of $1.08 each week. Surely you'd get more out of rolling the all up and can pull out at any stage.

 

[benji21]

Seems solid unders - $3.50 to go undefeated is implied odds of $1.08 each week. Surely you'd get more out of rolling the all up and can pull out at any stage.

Sorry might of mucked up my wording. 3.5 is for first defeat to be against geelong at skilled. Undefeated is 31 dollars