- Aug 10, 2005
- 46,545
- 42,486
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions

(First up, I'm sitting here on a small holiday Island in the Gulf of Thailand with a monsoon that has been raging outside for the better part of 2 hours)
I've said it here before, I would trade our 2019 first round pick for a pick in the 11 to 15 range this year.
It's highly doubtful that a team with a pick in the 5 to 10 range will trade their pick, unless it's a team with an NGA kid or Father Son kid who looked like losing their first round pick having to match a bid. In which case they would look to maximise value and trade their 2018 first round pick and trade it for a 2019 first round pick. They would also want to receive a early-ish 2018 second round pick back (to make sure they have enough points to match the bid on the NGA or F/S kid), and trade out their 2019 second round pick.
So Brisbane trade out our 2018 2nd and 2019 1st round picks, and receive 2018 first and 2019 second and we'd ask for a 3rd round pick back as well to balance out the points somewhat, as we are giving up picks early in each round and receiving back mid to later picks in each round. I'd be asking for a 2019 3rd round pick, because there is still the possibility we might have to match bids on one or two moderately to highly rated academy kids.
I have a couple of concerns for the draft this year.
First, I'm not sure it's looking like a Super Draft this year.
There was a post on the draft board early in the year by a new poster claiming to be a recently released recruiter from an AFL club, (now we can question whether some random is legitimate when they claim to be a scout, regardless) the point of his post was that this years draft lacked in top end talent from Victoria, and that in a normal year, yes Victoria supplies ~65% of the drafted kids, and that includes the majority of top end talent as well.
Without Victoria supplying the usual number of high end recruits, we can hardly call this year a super draft. Not only is Victoria not supplying it's usual percentage of top end talent, but there is a general lack of depth throughout the draft of kids from Victoria, and this years draft will be very dependent on kids from outside Victoria to supply the depth in the draft.
I know it's early in the U18 Champs, but I believe we have already seen how shallow both Vic teams are on genuine star power.
My second concern is that a lot of the teams who look likely to have early draft picks are all looking for midfield depth and there being a real possibility that our first round pick might end up after the genuine top class mids are gone.
Yes I know we are stepping in to the (not so) murky waters of wins meaning more to team culture than loses do to acquiring talent through the draft.
The last few drafts have seen the top 10 dominated by mids, with the exception of 2015 with Weitering & Schache going early. This year, (personal opinion coming up) currently I see only two genuine top class mids in this years draft, in Sam Walsh and Bailey Smith. The rest of the top talent are KPF's, small forwards or tied to other clubs as NGA and/or Northern Academy prospects.
After the first 3 picks, Lukosius, Walsh, Smith, I'm more inclined to want to trade pick 4 for say Adelaide's first two picks, currently pick 8 and 15, and am happy to send a 3rd round pick the other way as well. Depending on compensation picks handed out during the trade period, there could be other teams that might be able to put a similar package together.
Picks 8 & 15 would just about garuentee us being able to draft two of the second tier mids in this years draft, from amongst Jackson Hately, Connor Rozee, Curtis Taylor, Ned McHenry, Xavier Duursma, Chace Jones, Riley Collier-Dawkins, Jye Caldwell or Luke Valente.
Would this trade mean we trade this year pick 23 for pick 13 and next year trade pick 6 for pick 30?
Trade picks 6 (2019) and 23 (2018) for picks 13 (2018) and 30 (2019)? Something like that.



