2018 prospects and planning

[Keystone agony]

I'm trying to get a bit creative with my defenders as I'm not convinced by most of the popular ones. Anybody looking at Luke McDonald? Magnet as a junior, finally started to play more of a midfield role as 2017 went on. From Round 15 onwards had 20+ disposals every game and averaged 93.44 ppg.

If North throw him onball a fair bit in PS my eyebrows will be raised but i feel hes probably going to score more off a wing where he can get more marks anyway which will be his role in 2018

Hes a good unique. Do you remember his numbers in juniors?

 

[go you pups]

I'm trying to get a bit creative with my defenders as I'm not convinced by most of the popular ones. Anybody looking at Luke McDonald? Magnet as a junior, finally started to play more of a midfield role as 2017 went on. From Round 15 onwards had 20+ disposals every game and averaged 93.44 ppg.

I took interest in his form last year, averaged around 80 before that patch which wasnt too bad, will be on my radar this year.


Wonder if Houli will be relevant again too? Thinking Tiges, did B Ellis get DEF eligibility?

 

[Bandicoot]

Is 6 premo mids too many?

I remember that the leading coaches (after the first few rounds) for the past couple of years have started with 6 gun mids.

 

[Keystone agony]

I took interest in his form last year, averaged around 80 before that patch which wasnt too bad, will be on my radar this year.


Wonder if Houli will be relevant again too? Thinking Tiges, did B Ellis get DEF eligibility?

Yes B.Ellis kept his Def status

Avg 102 in the past priced at 84. To tiger fans they see him as a better player now even though 18 points off his best fantasy season

 

[Cotchy9]

Yes B.Ellis kept his Def status

Avg 102 in the past priced at 84. To tiger fans they see him as a better player now even though 18 points off his best fantasy season

Ellis averaged 95 points from his last 13 home and away games last year, locked down his role and played good footy. However in the finals he was shocking fantasy wise, 47.. 40.. 64. Got some lock down roles and didn't find much footy

 

[Keystone agony]

I remember that the leading coaches (after the first few rounds) for the past couple of years have started with 6 gun mids.

Thats really interesting. Do you follow the leading teams?

I guess a top 12 mid scores a fair few more fantasy points then a midfield rookie

in comparison

to top 10 fwd/def vs rookies in those positions

Ill be looking to load up a bit heavier in the mids this year than in the past. Ive always had a big 4 but then last year from memory i had Swallow and Jaegar as midpricers at M6 and M7

 

[Bandicoot]

Thats really interesting. Do you follow the leading teams?

I guess a top 12 mid scores a fair few more fantasy points then a midfield rookie

in comparison

to top 10 fwd/def vs rookies in those positions

Ill be looking to load up a bit heavier in the mids this year than in the past. Ive always had a big 4 but then last year from memory i had Swallow and Jaegar as midpricers at M6 and M7

I always look at the top couple of teams after round 1. They generally always have a very strong midfield. There were plenty of mid priced players last year who were exceptionally good value. Not so much this year.

 

[go you pups]

Yes B.Ellis kept his Def status

Avg 102 in the past priced at 84. To tiger fans they see him as a better player now even though 18 points off his best fantasy season

He hasnt had DEF status since like 2013 or 14, we dont get constant DPP moves like AFLF gets

 

[go you pups]

I remember that the leading coaches (after the first few rounds) for the past couple of years have started with 6 gun mids.

Gun full price mids or value types like Steven 2015, Hunter 2016 and Murphy 2017 firing early?

 

[Bandicoot]

Gun full price mids or value types like Steven 2015, Hunter 2016 and Murphy 2017 firing early?

Pups, I'd be fibbing if I said I was 100% sure one way or the other. All I know is that they had 6 mids all with scores of 100+.

 

[Keystone agony]

how did DaTBird187 back up in 2017?

 

[Bandicoot]

how did DaTBird187 back up in 2017?

Got off to a terrible start and never really recovered. Finished 788th.

 

[Keystone agony]

Got off to a terrible start and never really recovered. Finished 788th.

Still pretty damn good

 

[Bandicoot]

Still pretty damn good

Don't think he thought so!

 

[Schulzenfest]

1st to 788th shows that all the time we spend researching and discussing we do on here is probably overrated.

I’d say most of the regular posters on here are sensible enough to have a chance of winning it all on any given year. Once you get yourself up to the threshold of not doing anything overtly stupid, 90% of this game is just luck.

 

[Keystone agony]

Don't think he thought so!

How many played the game from memory its about 20k? so i guess that only places him inside the top 5% if thats the case... unsure?

1st to 788th shows that all the time we spend researching and discussing we do on here is probably overrated.

I’d say most of the regular posters on here are sensible enough to have a chance of winning it all on any given year. Once you get yourself up to the threshold of not doing anything overtly stupid, 90% of this game is just luck.

Luck in all formats certainly has its part to play. Its proven by such large fluctuations in the top 10 fantasy coaches in a given year then go missing the following year.

No doubt luck plays an even larger role in RDT with limited trades.

I use to always rank in the top 300 AFLF now have had 2 years of ranking 2-3k.

Point is im making a big effort to mitigate luck playing such a role. Ive only just started underatanding how much an injury to a premium impacts you.

Injury impact:
- Trade used or rookie score of about half premiums avg used
- Means you miss out on fixing other issues or jumping on gun rookies who then jump up 50k in a week on the bubble
- Week behind upgrading side compared to another team who doesnt have an injury

 

[VSTone]

How many played the game from memory its about 20k? so i guess that only places him inside the top 5% if thats the case... unsure?



Luck in all formats certainly has its part to play. Its proven by such large fluctuations in the top 10 fantasy coaches in a given year then go missing the following year.

No doubt luck plays an even larger role in RDT with limited trades.

I use to always rank in the top 300 AFLF now have had 2 years of ranking 2-3k.

Point is im making a big effort to mitigate luck playing such a role. Ive only just started underatanding how much an injury to a premium impacts you.

Injury impact:
- Trade used or rookie score of about half premiums avg used
- Means you miss out on fixing other issues or jumping on gun rookies who then jump up 50k in a week on the bubble
- Week behind upgrading side compared to another team who doesnt have an injury

adding to that is when you select a sneaky unique to make your move and they get knocked out in the first quarter and don't play again for weeks.

 

[Bandicoot]

I rev

1st to 788th shows that all the time we spend researching and discussing we do on here is probably overrated.

I’d say most of the regular posters on here are sensible enough to have a chance of winning it all on any given year. Once you get yourself up to the threshold of not doing anything overtly stupid, 90% of this game is just luck.

I reckon it is probably fair to say that most of the regular posters here do so for the fun of it rather than relying on it as a tool. There is little doubt imo that getting your initial squad right is the key to a successful year.
There is also a totally different mindset if you are chasing overall points as distinct from winning your league. You can afford to have some of your premium players missing a week here and there provided they are still there come finals if you are wanting to win your league. On the other hand, if it is overall glory you are looking for you need all your premiums to be playing 22 games.
As you stated, luck plays a huge part in this game and that will never change.
As frustrating as it can be, don't we love it though?

 

[Bandicoot]

How many played the game from memory its about 20k? so i guess that only places him inside the top 5% if thats the case... unsure?



Luck in all formats certainly has its part to play. Its proven by such large fluctuations in the top 10 fantasy coaches in a given year then go missing the following year.

No doubt luck plays an even larger role in RDT with limited trades.

I use to always rank in the top 300 AFLF now have had 2 years of ranking 2-3k.

Point is im making a big effort to mitigate luck playing such a role. Ive only just started underatanding how much an injury to a premium impacts you.

Injury impact:
- Trade used or rookie score of about half premiums avg used
- Means you miss out on fixing other issues or jumping on gun rookies who then jump up 50k in a week on the bubble
- Week behind upgrading side compared to another team who doesnt have an injury

Participation dropped to just over 15,000 last year which is such a shame. VS desperately needs to team up with some media outlet in order to promote this competition. I would have thought someone like SEN (Melbourne based sports radio station) would be a good partner.

 

[Bandicoot]

I'm interested to see what impact Gibbs' move to Adelaide will have.
Does it mean that Cripps will shoulder even more of the midfield role thereby improving his DT outcome or does he now get tagged more heavily?
Conversely, what change will he cause to the Adelaide mids? Do the Crouch brothers still spend as much time in the guts? Some have suggested that Gibbs may play off half back but I have my doubts about that.
I'm leaning towards Cripps as my M6 as I think he has even more upside than either of the Crouch boys.

 

[Keystone agony]

I'm interested to see what impact Gibbs' move to Adelaide will have.
Does it mean that Cripps will shoulder even more of the midfield role thereby improving his DT outcome or does he now get tagged more heavily?
Conversely, what change will he cause to the Adelaide mids? Do the Crouch brothers still spend as much time in the guts? Some have suggested that Gibbs may play off half back but I have my doubts about that.
I'm leaning towards Cripps as my M6 as I think he has even more upside than either of the Crouch boys.

Yep fascinating

Not far behind the Rocky/Port/Brisbane change.

I dont see it having any impact on Cripps. Cripps from memory avg 107.6 after an early round till injury. Cripps spent alot of time onball last year as thats only really his position at the moment til he develops some forward craft. Gibbs barely got tagged last year aswell from memory. Another important question is will clubs need to tag vs Carlton? Clubs didnt seem bothered with alot of bottom dwelling sides and their stars winning so much pill

PS will tell us a fair bit about his role at Adelaide. If its half back i wouldnt touch him in RDT. However Adelaide knew they needed to improve their midfield and gave up some top picks for him i dont think hes wasted across half back as good as he is. Maybe he ventures to an outside mid role more with Brad Crouch aswell. Between the 'big 4' for the crows i think the 3 onball spots, wing, forward and half back they get plenty of minutes for big scores.

I love Gibbs durability. If playing midfield hes a great unique. Adelaide scored alot more than what Carlton do.

300% (3 players × 100%) Onball time can be easily shared between 4 players. ie 75% each for the 'big 4'

 

[Bandicoot]

Yep fascinating

Not far behind the Rocky/Port/Brisbane change.

I dont see it having any impact on Cripps. Cripps from memory avg 107.6 after an early round till injury. Cripps spent alot of time onball last year as thats only really his position at the moment til he develops some forward craft. Gibbs barely got tagged last year aswell from memory. Another important question is will clubs need to tag vs Carlton? Clubs didnt seem bothered with alot of bottom dwelling sides and their stars winning so much pill

PS will tell us a fair bit about his role at Adelaide. If its half back i wouldnt touch him in RDT. However Adelaide knew they needed to improve their midfield and gave up some top picks for him i dont think hes wasted across half back as good as he is. Maybe he ventures to an outside mid role more with Brad Crouch aswell. Between the 'big 4' for the crows i think the 3 onball spots, wing, forward and half back they get plenty of minutes for big scores.

I love Gibbs durability. If playing midfield hes a great unique. Adelaide scored alot more than what Carlton do.

Cripps and B Crouch had very similar back ends to their seasons (both around 108 average) if you take out Cripps' injury effected last game. I feel they will both score slightly better in 2018 and either will make a good starting M6 and finishing as M8. Cripps' $33K lesser price puts him ahead at this stage.

 

[Keystone agony]

Cripps and B Crouch had very similar back ends to their seasons (both around 108 average) if you take out Cripps' injury effected last game. I feel they will both score slightly better in 2018 and either will make a good M6. Cripps' $33K lesser price puts him ahead at this stage.

Yep theyre both firmly on my watchlist. I was surpised at B.Crouch avg ~114 ish in his run home last year.

 

[Bandicoot]

Yep theyre both firmly on my watchlist. I was surpised at B.Crouch avg ~114 ish in his run home last year.

Not quite. 111.55 based on his 9 games played post bye whereas Cripps averaged 107.6 in his 10 games. With the magic number next season being 6910 that 4 point differential equals $27,640. So I suppose there's not a great deal of difference between who represents the better value.

 

[Pea Nut]

I had Brad Crouch locked in my starting side this year based on him having a full pre-season. He will go to another level once/if he gets his body 100%. He was back today on a modified training program. The extent of why has not been made known. It could be precautionary or it could be a niggle.