2018 prospects and planning

[go you pups]

Why do you like Neale so much?

Not against him, but people could say hes a lucky dip of going anywhere between 100-110 couldnt they?

I feel he's starting to improve on his standard deviation, in his breakout season of 2015 he was notorious for going 150 one week to 55 the next and only averaged 101 that year I think.

His two poor scores this year (60 + 32) were in games Freo were annihilated in by 100+ points on the road against Adelaide and Sydney, would put them down as aberrations, in his remaining 19 games he went 11 100s and 8 scores between 86-97. He may have had a heavy tag in that 32 also and perhaps played with an injury as he didn't play the next week after that shocker.

That 32 in particular would have dropped his average a little, so I would say he may be underpriced a little. I like his role the most also, key ball winner in Freos midfield and he seems to be reasonably durable, I feel he will be a regular 105-110 mid.

 

[Cotchy9]

Is it too much to go both Titch and Dangerfield? I don't want to be without them coz it'll hurt watching them post huge numbers, but it's a huge outlay to start with

 

[Pea Nut]

History suggest 108-111 avg playing 21 games

I cant see that changing.

Everyones after this 'top 8 mid' but i dont think you need to be so concerned about that.

If your paying 98 for someone and they avg 110 but thats not a 'top 8 mid' then i wouldnt be avoid picking such great value.

In my premiums i put a large emphasis on durability and the player in my view having value minor or not.

The reason why people are concerned about nailing starting premos and focussing on trying to pick 'top 8 mids' is because of the limited number of trades. We have been saved somewhat the last couple of years in that we have been able to rely on rookie priced players pumping out premo scores. Otherwise a lot of guys would have had unfinished teams. It is very important to try and get right at the start if you want to finish strong and with a good overall position. Trying to get value out of slightly underpriced premos is a lot more Fantasy related and not such a good strategy in RDT.

 

[Cotchy9]

Rocky yay or nay? Priced at 103. There's just so much intrigue with him, could be 20 points under priced if he gets that inside mid role with Port

 

[Pea Nut]

Rocky yay or nay? Priced at 103. There's just so much intrigue with him, could be 20 points under priced if he gets that inside mid role with Port

I'm currently on the nay train.

 

[Bandicoot]

Rocky yay or nay? Priced at 103. There's just so much intrigue with him, could be 20 points under priced if he gets that inside mid role with Port

I'm currently on the "yah" train. So that helps you heaps.

 

[Bandicoot]

Is it too much to go both Titch and Dangerfield? I don't want to be without them coz it'll hurt watching them post huge numbers, but it's a huge outlay to start with

Nothing wrong with going with the two of them if that is the way you want to go. It just means you have to make sacrifices elsewhere. Personally, I'm just going with one of them.

 

[Bandicoot]

Didn't realise how poor a finish to the season Heeney had. Only averaged 83 over his last 9 games with only one 100+ score. Even more confident in preferring McLean atm.

 

[Cotchy9]

Didn't realise how poor a finish to the season Heeney had. Only averaged 83 over his last 9 games with only one 100+ score. Even more confident in preferring McLean atm.

I'm with you there mate. Also Heeney had that operation the other week, might start slow. I'm going McLean too, averaged like 95 from his last 10 once he got the full time mid gig. And let's be honest, he's not a big name so not many will go him which is nice. Got to have your POD's to get in front

 

[Bandicoot]

I'm with you there mate. Also Heeney had that operation the other week, might start slow. I'm going McLean too, averaged like 95 from his last 10 once he got the full time mid gig. And let's be honest, he's not a big name so not many will go him which is nice. Got to have your POD's to get in front

Only if they perform. I had very few PODs last season and was quite successful.

 

[Cotchy9]

Only if they perform. I had very few PODs last season and was quite successful.

Yeah well that's right. You don't pick them for the sake of being different but always nice to have a few when they kill it. Even if McLean stayed at 85 that's still nearly a keeper in the forwards, however I think he goes 90 minimum. Looking at his scores, it reminds me so much of Hunters the year before he had that big break out of 103

 

[Bandicoot]

Yeah well that's right. You don't pick them for the sake of being different but always nice to have a few when they kill it. Even if McLean stayed at 85 that's still nearly a keeper in the forwards, however I think he goes 90 minimum. Looking at his scores, it reminds me so much of Hunters the year before he had that big break out of 103

I'm happy with going with McLean and tbh he probably won't be a POD come the start of season.
I look at PODs a little differently from many. A POD is generally a player most others don't want. There is a reason most don't want him!! If you can pick a player who performs well above what everyone thinks - fantastic, but it doesn't happen very often. I don't see anything wrong with having an initial squad full of favourite picks but it is how you do your trading throughout the year that will seperate you from the rest of the pack.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Had it in my head that I didn't want to start planning for the season til the new year, well it January so here's my early thoughts

Going to start with the three pigs, Mitchell, Merrett and Rockliff (who I view as underpriced.) The main reason why I'm starting the big dogs is it will force me to stay away from Midfield Midpricers and make me select more rookies (hopefully)

Will start Laird and Lloyd down back, they were ultra impressive last year, will again look for value with the next picks after those.

Standard Ruck Combo of Gawn and NN, both underpriced and all though NN isn't that great of a DT player the discount and uncertainty of other Ruck prospects makes him appealing.

I like the upcoming midfielders that have forward status, Parish should get more midfield minutes and McClean is getting his credits around here, If Heeney has kept his Foward status I'll be going there again I think.

 

[Dugong]

At this stage, Laird & Lloyd down back as 1 & 2. Like Burton as well (but I’m a Hawks biased anyway).

Titch, Danger, Kelly & Rocky. Locked. Will not change...barring injury. I just love Kelly...was my first picked. Looking at Weller, Sheed, Armo...

Rucks, like nearly everyone else will have

Forwards - a lot of smokies in here...I’ll be keeping an eye on Lambert (a solid finish to last year), CCameron, Bennell obviously - even Taranto (I just like how the kid plays). Billings is a lock for me.

***Disclaimer - I will most likely pick hardly any of these when the season starts ***

 

[Bandicoot]

Had it in my head that I didn't want to start planning for the season til the new year, well it January so here's my early thoughts


I like the upcoming midfielders that have forward status, Parish should get more midfield minutes and McClean is getting his credits around here, If Heeney has kept his Foward status I'll be going there again I think.

Agree with your thoughts. FWIW - Heeney has fwd-mid dpp status.

 

[go you pups]

Didn't realise how poor a finish to the season Heeney had. Only averaged 83 over his last 9 games with only one 100+ score. Even more confident in preferring McLean atm.

He absolutely spudded it up once I brought him in

Hopefully just fatigue setting in after his unfortunate start to the year with glandular fever

 

[go you pups]

On an old phone here so a bit limited in regards to posting properly

I like the sound of Parish as a FWD/MID, he has shown he can win the ball, could be a Bont/Adams circa 2015 type of move.

Laird should be a lock and load standard pick down back now with Doc gone, I don't rate Lloyd playing with McVeigh, seems McVeigh takes too much ball away from him. Will probably pick Birchall on the cheap and see how he goes.

Will likely go Gawn but doubt I grab Nic Nat, his ceiling is too low and I doubt he outscores Grundy, Sauce, Stef etc, will look for a value guy like what Vardy or Witts were last year.

Rocky is probably a yes based on what he is capable of, but need to see him in preseason first. Surely Port said to him you are our main ball winner in the lure of getting him over otherwise youd think he should have went to an Essendon instead?

 

[Bandicoot]

I've changed my philosophy to going gang busters in the midfield right from round 1 and look for value elsewhere. Although the likes of Cripps, Neale, Hannebury, Parker etc may improve on their 2017 figures I'm going with 6 who I think will finish with top 8 average - Titch, Danger, Zerrett, Kelly, Beams and Rocky. The remaining mids will all be rookies.
This will be the first year I have started with such a structure as I have always had gone with mid price value in the past.

 

[Cotchy9]

I've changed my philosophy to going gang busters in the midfield right from round 1 and look for value elsewhere. Although the likes of Cripps, Neale, Hannebury, Parker etc may improve on their 2017 figures I'm going with 6 who I think will finish with top 8 average - Titch, Danger, Zerrett, Kelly, Beams and Rocky. The remaining mids will all be rookies.
This will be the first year I have started with such a structure as I have always had gone with mid price value in the past.

I think this is s good call. With the forwards and backs being fairly weak I think it's a good idea to stack the mids

 

[Cotchy9]

Anyone keen on Hurley as a POD? Averaged 99 from his final 16 games, just 3 of those scores were under 90. Model of consistency. Considering him over Lloyd

 

[Keystone agony]

Anyone keen on Hurley as a POD? Averaged 99 from his final 16 games, just 3 of those scores were under 90. Model of consistency. Considering him over Lloyd

Not a bad find. Cant see his output changing too much. That 90-100 avg looks solid and will be very unique

 

[Pea Nut]

Walters as a forward with more midfield time at Freo ??

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

On an old phone here so a bit limited in regards to posting properly

I like the sound of Parish as a FWD/MID, he has shown he can win the ball, could be a Bont/Adams circa 2015 type of move.

Laird should be a lock and load standard pick down back now with Doc gone, I don't rate Lloyd playing with McVeigh, seems McVeigh takes too much ball away from him. Will probably pick Birchall on the cheap and see how he goes.

Will likely go Gawn but doubt I grab Nic Nat, his ceiling is too low and I doubt he outscores Grundy, Sauce, Stef etc, will look for a value guy like what Vardy or Witts were last year.

Rocky is probably a yes based on what he is capable of, but need to see him in preseason first. Surely Port said to him you are our main ball winner in the lure of getting him over otherwise youd think he should have went to an Essendon instead?

The Rucks will be interesting again this year. I don't see any value picks/options like last year, we didn't have any Witts/Nank trades to push someone value up in the off-season.

Stef / Grundy need to play solo to be worth the cash, both will have a bad patch and drop significant points and cash. Jacobs seems like a solid pick and you can pretty much pencil in what you're getting for your cash. Gawn is a pretty obvious pick at this stage to most serious DTers. Goldstein could potentially be decent value if he re-captures form.

The appeal of NicNat for me is that he's underpriced because of the discount and a walk up start in the Eagles team. Knowing there's a decent chance that both Stef and Grundy will be paired with Cox and Archie at some stage, means he could be a reasonable easy stepping stone to another premium, while scoring reasonable and make some cash.

 

[Cotchy9]

Is 6 premo mids too many?

 

[Schulzenfest]

I'm trying to get a bit creative with my defenders as I'm not convinced by most of the popular ones. Anybody looking at Luke McDonald? Magnet as a junior, finally started to play more of a midfield role as 2017 went on. From Round 15 onwards had 20+ disposals every game and averaged 93.44 ppg.