Prediction 2018 Starting 22

[Giant Strides]

He had ice on his (I think right) hammy after the Manuka Oval game, so I think he incurred it during the match. Of course, it could have been related to a reduced pre-season. Just hasn't come 100%, and I think we'd all agree that there's no point risking a full hamstring tear and even longer on the sidelines.

 

['51 Bewick]

Thanks guys. Guess I'll have to keep him another week and see how it goes.

 

[MartinLifts130]

hey guys just wondering is taranto likely to keep a spot as an inside midfield this year or will he be moved to the forward line?

 

[Giant Strides]

hey guys just wondering is taranto likely to keep a spot as an inside midfield this year or will he be moved to the forward line?

The 'problem' is Taranto's versatilty is likely to see him plug gaps where they occur from injuries etc. For example, with some forwards missing and Hopper returning this game, he may get less inside midfield minutes. So just a matter of how many minutes in each role rather than being completely cut out.

 

[Simmofreo]

Fantastic to see Zac Langdon committing to the club !! Great Job

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I think after 4 rounds a review of our best lineup is appropriate. It's not as simple as naming a 22 to me but has to includes our ideal group as the season progresses

Rucks: - Lobb is the number 1 option and does look physically ready for the challenge. After a pre-season seemingly targeted at giving him as much rest as possible he's had a bit if a slow start and is now injured again. Hopefully minor and he'll build into he season.
Dawson did his job against Freo and faced a big challenge down well. Not sure if we'll ever play two rucks this season but he's very important to us as an option I think.
Flynn coming alongfrom the little I know, and needs to impact around the ground more?
I've been anti The General in the ruck, I don' think he likes it. His capacity pobably means he as to bite the bullet and knuckle down to it. He's the part time ruck we need with one specialist. He's done surprisingly well this year to me.

Backs:- The great thing about our backs to me is they are pretty even. The fact that Corr was on top of the pecking last year and only kept his spot because of a late out in round two says a lot. Finlayson playing his third game was preferred.
The core defenders in Davis, Corr, Shaw, Finlayson and Haynes are all very good. Haynes instinctive ability to put himself in the right spot when the ball was doing crazy things last week was outstanding. Sam Reid showed as always he's at his best when circumstances aren't.

I actually expect Kennedy and Buntine will work their way back into the team. Buntine one one too many talls perhaps but that assumes everyone is available all the time, frankly we all wish, but it's unlikely.
Kennedy is not Wilson but is a tougher defender, not as slow as some think, and a very hard runner.Tomlinsons evolution as a runner does utilise his skills and give a spare stopper if needed in game.

I unashamedly prefer specialist backs, and to me the part timers get moved elsewhere as the season progresses.

Perryman and Cumming may well be required as depth. Sadly not much hope for Mohr.

What I love about this backline is it's flexibility, with the talls all competent early ground level. Importantly in a group that is fundamentally reactive, the weakest link is very strong. Probably none will be AA but that's ok if they do their bit to get us to the G at the end of September.

Mids: reputedly our strength and I think it is with Ward, Cogniglio, Shiel, Kelly, Taranto Scully and Whitfield all just needed to play as many games as possible to have a huge impact. It seems Scully may be a High Half Forward, but wherever he plays running hard around the field will be in his job description. To me the Whitfield in the backline thing might have a use by date. It worked but It is now being countered pretty effectively.

Add De Boer Griffen and Hopper to the rotations and it's looking really good.

Forwards:- I actually like three talls and fail to understand the argument you have to be short to apply defensive pressure. We couldn't play Patton x 3 but we don't so it's not a problem. Jezza is a genuine star, but I'm not sure if I want more goals or continued improvement in his defensive pressure. Ideally both but tackling and chasing important.

The General's had a bit of a slow start and hopefully he will start taking marks and dobbing goals from the 50 mark sideline again shortly. Himmelburg a bit as well, and that's a worry to me. He's critical to our structure in my view, and means we don't have to play a tall defender forward against guys like Rance and McGovern.

Toby's probably the only player (possibly Scully if outside mids are counted) who we can genuinely claim as the best in the comp. Cyril and Betts aging helps there though. Deledio showing signs of being the player we want him to be. He'll have to match Loyyd and Langdon's enthusiasm for chasing if he's to replace either one in my view. He potentially adds a lot of class though.

Looking pretty good to me

 

[dlanod]

Good read...

Buntine one one too many talls perhaps

One thing worth noting is that even though Buntine plays tall and we've used him as a KPD in the past he's actually shorter than Griffen or Setterfield, and the same height as de Boer.

I actually like three talls and fail to understand the argument you have to be short to apply defensive pressure.

It's more the nature of the talls. Cameron can apply pressure quite well. However last year Lobb and Patton and Stevie J were all non-starters on any kind of pressure. This year we've moved on SJ, moved out Lobb, and brought in HH and a quicker player (ZGL initially, Griffen last week). There's a reason HH gets talked up by Leon for his pressure acts and cleanness under his knees - he might be a tall, but he plays like a slightly bigger Toby.

 

[Giant Pete]

Good read...



One thing worth noting is that even though Buntine plays tall and we've used him as a KPD in the past he's actually shorter than Griffen or Setterfield, and the same height as de Boer.



It's more the nature of the talls. Cameron can apply pressure quite well. However last year Lobb and Patton and Stevie J were all non-starters on any kind of pressure. This year we've moved on SJ, moved out Lobb, and brought in HH and a quicker player (ZGL initially, Griffen last week). There's a reason HH gets talked up by Leon for his pressure acts and cleanness under his knees - he might be a tall, but he plays like a slightly bigger Toby.

There’s more to it than just ‘applying pressure’ though. It’s about bringing the ball to ground. Eg look at Collingwood on the weekend. They play Cox... who just can’t be outmarked. He doesn’t need to clunk it because he’ll have about 5 smalls down there.
Richmond do the same thing... just Riewoldt contesting the highball... don’t get outmarked and then they have the advantage on the ground.
Having two or three talls go for the same mark is ultimately a waste. They never clunk it enough to justify the advantage. There’s more advantage in just getting the ball to ground and playing more smalls.

 

[Giant Pete]

There’s more to it than just ‘applying pressure’ though. It’s about bringing the ball to ground. Eg look at Collingwood on the weekend. They play Cox... who just can’t be outmarked. He doesn’t need to clunk it because he’ll have about 5 smalls down there.
Richmond do the same thing... just Riewoldt contesting the highball... don’t get outmarked and then they have the advantage on the ground.
Having two or three talls go for the same mark is ultimately a waste. They never clunk it enough to justify the advantage. There’s more advantage in just getting the ball to ground and playing more smalls.

I think the numbers are something like 25% of balls in the forward 50 are marked by attacking team, 25% marked by defensive team and 50% end up ground balls.... it’s simple math.

 

[dlanod]

There’s more to it than just ‘applying pressure’ though. It’s about bringing the ball to ground. Eg look at Collingwood on the weekend. They play Cox... who just can’t be outmarked. He doesn’t need to clunk it because he’ll have about 5 smalls down there.
Richmond do the same thing... just Riewoldt contesting the highball... don’t get outmarked and then they have the advantage on the ground.
Having two or three talls go for the same mark is ultimately a waste. They never clunk it enough to justify the advantage. There’s more advantage in just getting the ball to ground and playing more smalls.

There's truth in that too. I think Patton is underrated there - he might not take a contested mark all that often, but I rarely see him outmarked by an opponent. Lobb and Patton going for the same ball last year was a recurring nightmare as a result.

 

[Teeso]

Understandably a bit premature seeing as the year has not ended, but wanted to see what our uninjured line up might look like going into next year. Patton and Tiziani will be excluded since they probably wont make it back until middle-late next year. From the outset, it seems quite hard to fit all the returning players into the first.

Potential delistings/retirements: Mohr and Stein - Mohr has been a servant for the club for a long time but he is turning 30 and will unlikely be playing much senior footy with the emergence of Taylor and Keefe being preferenced as a KPD due to his endurance and versatility. Stein is an athlete but just does not seem to have the footy smarts to make it at AFL level after 2 years.

Starting 22
FB: Shaw Davis Haynes
HB: Kennedy Corr Williams
C: Whitfield Kelly Scully
HF: deBoer Cameron Taranto
FF: Langdon Lobb Greene
R: Simpson Coniglio Ward
I/C: Shiel Hopper Tomlinson Himmelberg

Reserves
FB: Buntine Keefe (rookie Collins?) Finlayson
HB: Cumming Taylor Perryman
C: Daniels Bonar Deledio
HF: Griffen Sproule Reid
FF: D. Buckley J. Buckley Lloyd
R: Flynn Shipley Setterfield
I/C: 1st Pick (Hill/Rozee?) 2nd Pick (RCD/Caldwell/Chayce Jones/Cameron/Bytel?) 3rd Pick (Briggs?) Rookie (Peatling?)

Starting 22: Feel like the backline is looking solid. Wanted to fit Taylor in since he has been playing so strongly but I think Corr just pips him at the moment and cant see Leon forcing Corr to play in the seconds if he is doing a good shut down job this year. Davis and Haynes obvious selections if fit. If Shaw's legs allow and he can still run like he does this year, he cements a spot for me. His football nouse and leadership is too valuable in the back and he has saved us countless times this year (just got to ignore the occasional OOTFs that come with him!). Kennedy has been a revelation on return this year and gives our backline a different dimension. If he can lower his eyes and work on pinpointing long passes, he has the potential to be an elite half-back flanker in the same vein as JJ was for the Bulldogs in their premiership year. Williams is an interesting one having missed the whole of 2018 so far but if he can recapture his creativity, run and evasive prowess from 2017, he will be deadly in conjunction with Kennedy. Feeling like Williams will be unlikely to return in 2018 but should be cherry ripe for 2019. Can also see Whitfield rotating through a wing and HB position with Kennedy and Williams since all 3 have dash and the capability to deliver into the forward 50. Our midfield has been renowned for its obvious strengths so dont think we need to dwell too much into it, but the return of Scully will be massive. His running power to get away from the opposition going into attack and to dash back when we need him in defence is priceless. His kicking is also good and his running often allows him to find space and sneak 1 or 2 crucial goals each game. I think we all saw in 2017 that Kelly played his most valuable football to us as a dual inside/outside midfielder and the return of Scully allows us to put him back into this position. With Whitfield, Kelly and Scully patrolling through the centre, our forwards should be able to have prime use inside the forward 50. Additionally, an inside midfield unit of Ward, Coniglio, Shiel, Kelly, Hopper and Taranto looks frightening to say the least. Finally the forwards. Cameron and Greene provide the A grade targets up forward and Lobb is there both for his contested marking and his ability to at least make a contest and bring the ball to ground for others. Cant see Lobb ever being a big goalkicker, but he will provide opportunities to others. 3 strong marking targets are great, but they will need to learn to synchronise their leads and marking areas so they dont all crash into each other. Having Himmelberg/Tommo on the bench gives us flexibility to play 2 or 3 talls in attack to keep oppositions guessing. Whilst having Patton sidelined is a minus, we do get more mobility from our KPFs who will work in conjunction with the smalls to pile on the pressure. Cant really criticise what Langdon and deBoer have given us in terms of pressure up forward and both have risen to the occasion multiple times this year. Taranto and deBoer will likely also have midfield minutes and can see them rotating with the likes of Scully, Coniglio, Kelly and Ward.

Unlucky to miss: Buntine, Taylor, Griffen, Deledio, Setterfield - Unfortunately, feel like the backline is very tough to crack into at the moment. However, with more physical development, I am confident Taylor will bang the door down and push his way into the first team. Bunts is serviceable but cant see who he would take the place of. His marking and one-on-one contests are very strong but his kicking can be worked on and might be the thing holding him back as a medium defender. Griffen and Deledio for me are in the same boat. Both in their prime would have easily made the first team, and even now I can see perhaps one of them being inserted into the above teamsheet in place of Himmelberg/Tomlinson. Their games will need to be managed and I think if we have a clean run of injuries, that wont be a problem. Setters was tracking well at the start of the year before his injury but he should get his chance if he can bulk up slightly more. Had good disposal efficiency and we could use another big body in the contests who looks to be developing into a Griffen-like player. Bonar needs to work on endurance and using his acceleration to burst away from packs rather than just for crashing into them. Both these aspects should improve with another pre-season. Perryman and Cumming have been stagnant this year for me and I see next year being an important year for them to show their value.

Draft: I am an advocate of Hill and think he is agile, evasive and makes great decisions - all qualities we need. His versatility allows him to play all over the ground. My main concern is that I heard somewhere he is very keen to stay in Perth and I would be shattered if we developed in for 2 years only for a gem to get traded back to Perth for a bag of chips since we will likely have no leverage. Alternatively, have liked what Rozee brings to the table too - great leap, mark and makes good decisions. His marking and midfield ability remind me a bit of Fyfe but understand that is a bit of a stretch comparing an 18yo to a brownlow medallist. Like the look of RCD, looks special being a tall mid who has genuine acceleration and speed, great kick for goal and quick hands. Cant see us passing on Briggs after he was the U18 All Australian Ruckman since he can play both ruck and a KPF - both areas we need some to develop. We need to work on building a second ruck behind Flynn since Lobb seems to be too injury prone (even as a forward seems to be hobbling after every match) and Simpson cant keep us going forever. Peatling would a bit of a good news story on top of Briggs and Shipley and I think is a good pickup if we can get him late in the draft or as a rookie.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Understandably a bit premature seeing as the year has not ended, but wanted to see what our uninjured line up might look like going into next year. Patton and Tiziani will be excluded since they probably wont make it back until middle-late next year. From the outset, it seems quite hard to fit all the returning players into the first.

Potential delistings/retirements: Mohr and Stein - Mohr has been a servant for the club for a long time but he is turning 30 and will unlikely be playing much senior footy with the emergence of Taylor and Keefe being preferenced as a KPD due to his endurance and versatility. Stein is an athlete but just does not seem to have the footy smarts to make it at AFL level after 2 years.

Starting 22
FB: Shaw Davis Haynes
HB: Kennedy Corr Williams
C: Whitfield Kelly Scully
HF: deBoer Cameron Taranto
FF: Langdon Lobb Greene
R: Simpson Coniglio Ward
I/C: Shiel Hopper Tomlinson Himmelberg

Reserves
FB:Buntine Keefe (rookie Collins?) Finlayson
HB: Cumming Taylor Perryman
C: Daniels Bonar Deledio
HF: Griffen Sproule Reid
FF: D. Buckley J. Buckley Lloyd
R: Flynn Shipley Setterfield
I/C: 1st Pick (Hill/Rozee?) 2nd Pick (RCD/Caldwell/Chayce Jones/Cameron/Bytel?) 3rd Pick (Briggs?) Rookie (Peatling?)

Starting 22: Feel like the backline is looking solid. Wanted to fit Taylor in since he has been playing so strongly but I think Corr just pips him at the moment and cant see Leon forcing Corr to play in the seconds if he is doing a good shut down job this year. Davis and Haynes obvious selections if fit. If Shaw's legs allow and he can still run like he does this year, he cements a spot for me. His football nouse and leadership is too valuable in the back and he has saved us countless times this year (just got to ignore the occasional OOTFs that come with him!). Kennedy has been a revelation on return this year and gives our backline a different dimension. If he can lower his eyes and work on pinpointing long passes, he has the potential to be an elite half-back flanker in the same vein as JJ was for the Bulldogs in their premiership year. Williams is an interesting one having missed the whole of 2018 so far but if he can recapture his creativity, run and evasive prowess from 2017, he will be deadly in conjunction with Kennedy. Feeling like Williams will be unlikely to return in 2018 but should be cherry ripe for 2019. Can also see Whitfield rotating through a wing and HB position with Kennedy and Williams since all 3 have dash and the capability to deliver into the forward 50. Our midfield has been renowned for its obvious strengths so dont think we need to dwell too much into it, but the return of Scully will be massive. His running power to get away from the opposition going into attack and to dash back when we need him in defence is priceless. His kicking is also good and his running often allows him to find space and sneak 1 or 2 crucial goals each game. I think we all saw in 2017 that Kelly played his most valuable football to us as a dual inside/outside midfielder and the return of Scully allows us to put him back into this position. With Whitfield, Kelly and Scully patrolling through the centre, our forwards should be able to have prime use inside the forward 50. Additionally, an inside midfield unit of Ward, Coniglio, Shiel, Kelly, Hopper and Taranto looks frightening to say the least. Finally the forwards. Cameron and Greene provide the A grade targets up forward and Lobb is there both for his contested marking and his ability to at least make a contest and bring the ball to ground for others. Cant see Lobb ever being a big goalkicker, but he will provide opportunities to others. 3 strong marking targets are great, but they will need to learn to synchronise their leads and marking areas so they dont all crash into each other. Having Himmelberg/Tommo on the bench gives us flexibility to play 2 or 3 talls in attack to keep oppositions guessing. Whilst having Patton sidelined is a minus, we do get more mobility from our KPFs who will work in conjunction with the smalls to pile on the pressure. Cant really criticise what Langdon and deBoer have given us in terms of pressure up forward and both have risen to the occasion multiple times this year. Taranto and deBoer will likely also have midfield minutes and can see them rotating with the likes of Scully, Coniglio, Kelly and Ward.

Unlucky to miss: Buntine, Taylor, Griffen, Deledio, Setterfield - Unfortunately, feel like the backline is very tough to crack into at the moment. However, with more physical development, I am confident Taylor will bang the door down and push his way into the first team. Bunts is serviceable but cant see who he would take the place of. His marking and one-on-one contests are very strong but his kicking can be worked on and might be the thing holding him back as a medium defender. Griffen and Deledio for me are in the same boat. Both in their prime would have easily made the first team, and even now I can see perhaps one of them being inserted into the above teamsheet in place of Himmelberg/Tomlinson. Their games will need to be managed and I think if we have a clean run of injuries, that wont be a problem. Setters was tracking well at the start of the year before his injury but he should get his chance if he can bulk up slightly more. Had good disposal efficiency and we could use another big body in the contests who looks to be developing into a Griffen-like player. Bonar needs to work on endurance and using his acceleration to burst away from packs rather than just for crashing into them. Both these aspects should improve with another pre-season. Perryman and Cumming have been stagnant this year for me and I see next year being an important year for them to show their value.

Draft: I am an advocate of Hill and think he is agile, evasive and makes great decisions - all qualities we need. His versatility allows him to play all over the ground. My main concern is that I heard somewhere he is very keen to stay in Perth and I would be shattered if we developed in for 2 years only for a gem to get traded back to Perth for a bag of chips since we will likely have no leverage. Alternatively, have liked what Rozee brings to the table too - great leap, mark and makes good decisions. His marking and midfield ability remind me a bit of Fyfe but understand that is a bit of a stretch comparing an 18yo to a brownlow medallist. Like the look of RCD, looks special being a tall mid who has genuine acceleration and speed, great kick for goal and quick hands. Cant see us passing on Briggs after he was the U18 All Australian Ruckman since he can play both ruck and a KPF - both areas we need some to develop. We need to work on building a second ruck behind Flynn since Lobb seems to be too injury prone (even as a forward seems to be hobbling after every match) and Simpson cant keep us going forever. Peatling would a bit of a good new story on top of Briggs and Shipley and I think is a good pickup if we can get him late in the draft or as a rookie.

Detailed and informative post. Without picking holes most trade periods have a surprise but not hearing any rumours this year. Another Wilson type scenario is possible I guess but hopefully not.

I did note Griffen on his 250th interview wasn't really gung ho about playing on. Expect he'll get an offer but not certain he'll take it, particularly if a spot in the ones is looking a challenge.

 

[Teeso]

Detailed and informative post. Without picking holes most trade periods have a surprise but not hearing any rumours this year. Another Wilson type scenario is possible I guess but hopefully not.

I did note Griffen on his 250th interview wasn't really gung ho about playing on. Expect he'll get an offer but not certain he'll take it, particularly if a spot in the ones is looking a challenge.

The only surprise rumour so far which seems pretty unsupported by the hack journalist is the Lobb one. He seems pretty settled and looks to be enjoying his time despite the previous injuries. Looks to be really passionate singing the team song after wins too. Is a relatively soft spoken kind of guy so wouldnt think he would be too vocal to the media though even if he did want to head back to Perth. To be honest, wouldnt even know what Id want from WCE or Freo in a trade if forced. Is supposed to be our primary ruckman so would definitely need a lot to pry him away from us before his contract expires, but knowing GWS, they do alot of goodwill trading to get players back home if they request.

Maybe a 3 way trade with North and Freo
- Freo receive Lobb + 44 (from GWS)
- North receive Cerra
- GWS receive Preuss + 27 (from North)
Freo lose a potential homesick star mid, but gain a middle pick in between 6 and 78 (their first 2 picks) and a key KPF/ruck to pinch hit alongside Darcy/Sandilands, also gives Taberner and Sunshine a hand in attack.
North lose a a 2nd round pick and a physically built but raw young ruck who has been up and down in the reserves but gain a young gun mid who alongside LDU, Simpkins, Ahern and Tarryn Thomas (likely) give them the building blocks for a surge of good young midfielders as well as some positive trade media.
GWS lose Lobb but gain a pick upgrade to the 2nd round and also a relatively raw ruckman who we can pump some regular senior games into. But then that begs the question what would we do with him if Flynn or Briggs rise up and take on the mantle. However, interestingly, it also means if North desperately want Kelly at the end of next year, they cant include Preuss as part of the deal and if we are not interested in other players on their list, they will have to find at least 2 early first round picks from somewhere.

Unlikely to eventuate since we dont want to lose Lobb and Freo dont want to lose Cerra, but just a hypothetical. Maybe if WCE want him, a play for bringing Brander home or Lycett could be involved but highly doubt it.

Agree with you on Griffen. For me, the only thing stopping Griffen from signing on is his own passion and belief in his own game. I think at this point the club would still be happy to do 1 year contract extensions at probably minimal wage but if he gets near his best, he and Lids would set good examples for the younger players and both would still maintain high standards for those pushing for a spot in the seniors.

 

[fridgeman]

Long way to go in this season but I am a fan of minimal main list changes this year and I think the question marks are over
Mohr? Retire and maybe player coach in the reserves
Keefe? Delist Good flexibility but I feel the list spot would be better used on Briggs/Lloyd upgrade
Buntine? 6 + games to go to cement a spot and with an ageing Shaw although not a strong rebounder he is a defender and I don't see any players on the list like him but of the original draftees he has the lowest games count but if Mohr and Keefe go he will be required IMO KEEP
Griffen? Depends on what the club can offer him in terms of salary and what his after footy life plans are and again 6+ games to prove his injuries are behind him and his form warrants a list spot
Simpson? I think he has earned a new one year contract with his performance v the power and similar to Griffen it depends on his plans post footy although with list spots at a premium he could be moved to a rookie contract
Tiziani? Move to rookie list and see how he recovers from ACL
Others? depends on SC
Rookies
Reid? He may be close to earning a new contract I think depending on the last games of the year and he has been the most loyal player to the club so if it is the end for him I can see him as player coach in the NEAFL
D Buckley He does well in the reserves but with list spots at a premium and also opportunities for the younger players i can see a delist
J Buckley hasn't and many opportunities due to injury and not really showing much in the reserves and I think it will be if the club sees a better option from an academy player
Lloyd Upgrade to senior list as this is the third year
Sproule Keep on rookie list
Stein Keep on rookie list he has shown gradual improvement and as a cat b rookie not really taking up a list spot or SC

I can see 3 picks in the main draft (+ Lloyd upgrade) but dependant on any trades and 2/3 rookies being drafted hopefully from the academy with the 3 at the club at the moment the ones most likely