Game Day 2023 Prelim Final - Collingwood vs GWS Giants, Friday 22 September, 7.50pm, MCG

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Nov 23, 2015
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What a contrast in respective seasons for the two teams in this preliminary Final. Home & Away season #1 vs #7. Collingwood - who themselves arose from the ashes of a disastrous 2021 season to make a PF in 2022, and again this year - have been frontrunners all season. Hitting the top of the ladder in round 7, they have fended off all comers to be atop the H&A ladder, and saw off the Melbourne Demons in the first qualifying final a fortnight ago. Against GWS, whose place in the finals was only sealed by their win against Carlton in the very last game of the H&A season. Who fought back from 3-7 after 10 rounds, who have won in season 2023 at 11 different venues, and who have continued that form with two away wins in finals - against Saints (MCG) and Port (Adelaide Oval).

Mighty Collingwood, beloved of the VFL establishment, who arrogantly believe that they should succeed. Notwithstanding that, they deserve their top spot on the ladder, and first team into a PF this year, through weight of performances. Up against GWS who have travelled heavily this yar, including both finals. Yet who - for once - have travelled well, and have a minimal injury sheet. The Pies rightly deserve to be favourites for this game; and GWS deserve to believe that they can upset the Pies. The Giants' performances over the back half of the season stack up favourably. Adam Kingsley initially transformed Leon Cameron's stodgy stoppage game into a resurgence of the Orange Tsunami, with a running and forward half pressure game, then in the last few weeks added a contested midfield capability as well.


For the Giants, our senior players such as TFG, Cogs, Chook and Whitters have regained some of their best form, pushed by young guns such as Tom Green, Sam Taylor, Connor Idun and Toby Bedford. The team is playing as a cohesive team, aided by flashes of individual brilliance. Possibly the best note to make is that in neither final has GWS been required to call on Toby Greene for a superhuman effort to rescue the side, rather, he contributed solidly but the team as a whole made the running. Those senior players have also infused in the whole team the idea that we shouldn't say "hey, we've improved, we'll be set for a flag tilt next year" but rather "this year could be our year - embrace the opportunity, rise up and grasp it".

I recall the MCG atmosphere in the 2017 PF defeat to Richmond, and the 2019 PF defeat of the Pies. In both cases, I was part of the small splash of orange in a seething stadium of opposition fans. It will be the same tonight, but the "Orange Team" has embraced the combative theatre away this year, and I think it will serve to spur them on.

I look forward to tonight's game. It should be a massive contest - a tremendous challenge for our team. Embrace the atmosphere lads and use it to gird your loins for combat. Go there, play your game, bring the orange tsunami, and beat those ******* Pies at their home ground. Stand tall, and never surrender!



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Collingwood's defence

You'll notice a sea of green when you cast your eyes over Collingwood's column in Champion Data's 'Premiership Standards' matrix -- and rightly so, they do just about everything well -- but one area of concern, or red, is opposition scores per inside 50.

The Magpies produced a defensive masterclass against the Demons in the first week of finals, but the Giants pose a totally different challenge. For one, they are a far more efficient offensive side. They love to attack from turnover and, as the third-best pressure side in the league, create plenty of them. In fact, they have forced the third-most forward-half turnovers and second-most three-quarter turnovers (intercept possession won outside of your defensive 50) this season.

Once they have ball in hand they transition through the midfield as well as any, playing with speed, precision and efficiency, a style not too dissimilar to the Magpies. It's a game plan paying dividends, with the Giants averaging 101 points per contest over the last two months. How Collingwood's back six, led by skipper Darcy Moore, holds up against the orange tsunami will be pivotal to the result of this game.

Toby Greene

Is there a more difficult and daunting match-up in the entire league than Greene? It's hard to think of one.

The Giants' skipper did not play when the two sides met in Round 9 and, at the risk of stating the obvious, is the biggest of ins for Fridays night's preliminary final. It's not hyperbole to suggest his performance will determine whether or not his side advances to the Big Dance. Greene has booted 64 goals this year, easily the most among non-key forwards. He's also averaging a shade under 18 disposals per game. His football IQ is off the charts and he just knows how to beat his opponent time and time again.

So who will his opponent be? When the two sides met in Round 15 last year, the Magpies shared the load with Nick Daicos (35 minutes), Brayden Maynard (24 minutes), Jeremy Howe (23 minutes), John Noble (15 minutes) and Nathan Murphy (15 minutes) all spending time on him. You'd expect the two leading candidates to take responsibility for Greene this time around would be Maynard or Isaac Quaynor. With that said, Greene got a hold of Quaynor in 2021, kicking five goals in the 58 minutes they were matched up. In that same game, Greene went scoreless in the 48 minutes Maynard was looking after him.

Turnaround between games

The unfavourable Giants scheduling has been one of the talking points of the finals series and once again Adam Kingsley's side will feel a little hard done by with the AFL's post-season fixturing. There's no doubt Collingwood earned the right to the scheduling advantage by finishing on top of the ladder, but that shouldn't come at a major disadvantage to another club. The reality is GWS will have to front up to the MCG after a six-day break, but that doesn't tell the full story. The Giants would have only returned back home on Sunday afternoon following their semifinal win over the Power at Adelaide Oval, and will travel to Melbourne on Thursday for the preliminary final. It's a tight turnaround.

Meanwhile, heading into this game the Magpies will have played once in 27 days. Since 2010, there have been 12 instances of a team playing a final off a six-day break against an opponent with at least seven days of rest. The team backing up after six days has won just 33% of those. The Magpies are guaranteed to be fresh and rested and should the game be tight heading into the final term, it might be this factor which proves telling.
 
Collingwood have jumped teams early this year.

We need to be even (ish) at the end of the first

If it is evens or better at quarter time we’ve got them.

But think one of the big indicators or our success tonight is going to be our ability to bring the ball to ground in defence.

Their top 3 goal kickers (based on ave) are all mark and goal type players (mihocek/Elliott/Mcstay) and they are a bottom ranked bottom 3 side for forward 50 tackles. Ie bring the ball to ground and we should be able to get the transition game humming and they have conceded 100 points in 3 of past 5 games. The other 2 were Essendon round 23 and dees in first final who had 69 inside 50’s but they can’t score
 
I reckon Maynard is going to try and get under Greene's skin early...
Hope so. That's putting out a fire with kero. You poke that bear he will destroy you. Toby loves that s**t. What an absolute freak.
 

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