Autopsy 2023 Round 15 - GWS Giants vs The Bye, 22-25 June

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Giant Strides

Giant Strides

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Nov 23, 2015
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Well, we are at that point of the season where GWS is up against the bye. After 14 rounds, we are 6 wins & 8 losses, with 3 of those wins coming in the last 4 games (and that fourth game was a blown opportunity against the Tigers). We started 2-3 in an opening block of games that were winnable as the team came to grips with Adam Kingsley's new style. The lads seem to have grasped his new style now, and are starting to deliver on AK's vision of how he wants the team to play. Injuries have clearly played a significant role in our fortunes - as they seem to do every year - with the loss at critical times of stars Kelly, Whitfield, Haynes, and Taylor as well as lesser lights Wehr, Jones, Bedford & Kennedy. One question will be, can we get through the bye without adding to our injury list?

So, here's an opportunity for you to analyse, criticise, postulate or rant about our season to date, our potential for the remainder of the season ahead, or anything else on your mind involved in season 2023.

Have at it!
 
When we get the game on our terms we look increasingly better. Kicking 100 points regularly is a pass mark

Defensively we haven’t been good enough. Taylor back helps but the manic pressure we applied in the geelong game through the midfield seems to come and go

Loving the forward half game plan. it’s great to have a clearer brand to look for and one that is competitive in the modern game.
 

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I'm impressed with the gamestyle, now that we are getting players back it's starting to look quite nice.
Scoring has increased massively. Defensively we are giving up more overall but it's okay coz our backline is so solid 1on1.
I think there's a good mix of future stars coming through. Not just from high picks either. You expect Ash, Green, Callaghan to be good. The found gold is Buckley/Briggs/Idun/Riccardi and I've been super impressed with Brown's effort and finishing.
XO has found his mojo too.
Second half of the year will mean players like Leek and Stone might push for selection.
If we come off the bye with Daniels and Cumming added to the squad I don't see there being any reason we can't knock Melbourne around a little.
Future is looking bright.
 
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Watch the video in this story - it tells a message that is compelling. While we might be a "sneaky chance" to make the 8 this year, the reality is more likely building for a future assault on the flag. In any case, the team is much more watchable at the moment that the past couple of years of a dour stoppage battle. And amazing how much better players like Cogs and Riccardi look under a running style of play than a static stoppage battle.

www.foxsports.com.au

‘It’s now back’: Great’s huge ‘orange tsunami’ call as AFL’s finals sleepers announce themselves

‘Hard to stop’: Sleeping giant awakening as ‘under-the-radar’ star powers AFL finals charge
www.foxsports.com.au www.foxsports.com.au
 
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Thought I might take a look at our various lines during this break, one by one, starting with defence.

I know that AK has started HH in defence the last few weeks, but I can't figure out why he did so with Sam Taylor back this week, except for HH providing another option for distributing (and particularly big kicks out of D50). Maybe out of caution on Sam's return, since he only had 78% game time as opposed to normally mid to high 90%.

Anyway, I'd postulate that our optimal set-up in defence is:
Sam Taylor - Jack Buckley - Nick Haynes - Connor Idun - Lachie Whitfield - Isaac Cumming - Lachie Ash.

That is, two primary tall defenders, an intercepting tall defender, a defender who can play on both tall and small (so chop out during player rest, cover injuries), and three counterattacking small/medium defenders. The main weakness is really that none of the three medium/small defenders is really a close-defending player, so we can suffer trying to defend against the Charlie Camerons & Cody Weightmans of the comp.

Sam's injury this year was costly - we probably would have won the Richmond game if he played, as he would never have allowed Jack Reiwoldt to kick 5 goals. Sam & Jack are in my opinion the best 1-2 KPD combination in the AFL, but Jack did get exposed when he had to take the number 1 forward. Let's look at some stats for key defenders.

Sam Taylor: In the first 5 rounds of 2023, he had 52 intercepts (both air & ground), at an average of 10.4 per game. (I've ignored his half game against Lions when he was injured, and his return game, when he didn't play his normal game time. Even including those and allowing for his limited time versus Lions he'd be just under 10.) The next best is James Sicily at 9.33 per game. This backs up 2022, when Sam was best, ahead of Stewart & Sicily. Before his injury he was also leading the contested marks count for KPDs; even after missing games he's 4th on averages behind Ballard, Moore and Balta. In 1-on-1 contests, he has the 40th most contests because he was out injured, but apart from players with almost no contests, he has the best 1-on-1 loss rate (i.e. the least losses) at 5% - that is, he's lost just 1 of those 20 contests. Guys like Max Gawn (2 losses out of 18) and Jacob Weitering (6 losses out of 49 and 12%) are the next best. So, Sam rarely loses in contests, and takes a lot of marks to defuse opposition attacks. He is also ranked 9th for defenders in disposal efficiency.

Jack Buckley: Buckley's game complements Taylor's, and taking the number 2 opposition KPD allows our defence to heavily blank out tall attacks. Buckley has the league's most 1-on-1 contests, at 81, almost one third more than the next KPD (Charlie Ballard at 59). His loss rate increased while Taylor was missing, doubling to around 23% (similar to Ballard, but worse than Collins & May, and much worse than Moore & Weitering). Buckley is also top 10 in defence for 1%ers. He also leads KPDs in tackles (41, next best is 32), and pressure acts (145, next best is 116); and is second for spoils (just behind Harris Andrew, and just ahead of Sam Collins).

Nick Haynes: Nick's one-wood is his intercepting - he's not a great 1-on-1 player, but he complements the team well enough. In 2023 he's back near the top of his game, ranked third (behind Sicily and Luke Ryan, and ahead of Weitering and Callum Wilkie) in defender marks taken.

Connor Idun: Idun is neither a KPD nor a small/medium, rather an "in-betweener" so his stats are mixed. However, he's ranked 13th for total 1%ers and 16th for total intercepts, which are very good for a player who's not the "main player" in those regards for GWS.

I'll lump Lachie Whitfield, Isaac Cumming & Lachie Ash in together as stats for them are less standout. They rank 10th, 19th & 29th (on averages) for rebound 50s, although only 30th, 41st & 49th on metres gained. The last few games (apart from the injured Cummings) those stats have improved (in line with our scoring, and game results), so the counter-attack has been deficient early in the season, but has improved lately. I think that identifies part of our problem.

So, long story short, we've probably got one of the best tall "stopping" defensive set-ups, but our smaller defence and counter-attack needs to improve - the latter of which has done so in the last few weeks.

Looking longer term, we should have the Taylor-Buckley combo for 5 to 8 years, with Aleer under development. But with Davis and Keeffe hitting their use-by dates soon, we do IMHO need to draft another developing tall to cover for injuries, and also to take over in due course. If not, we need a decent role-player KPD who's happy to play mostly VFL with a sniff at AFL when injuries occur. Haynes is possibly only one or two years away from pulling the plug - I suspect that if he feels he no longer has what it takes he'll step away fairly quickly. The question will be who takes his role - is that the best role for Aleer, does HH switch into that role for us, or is Cam Fleeton able to develop into that role (noting the kinds of stats he takes in VFL)?

For the medium smalls, I certainly don't agree with anyone advocating trading Ash out. He's finally hitting his straps in the role we drafted him for. I can see Josh Fahey plugging injury gaps for the next few years until it's time to take over from Whitfield. Our only concern would be the defensive capabilities of those players, so do we need to look for someone who can do that role (someone like Brandon Starcevich from Brisbane, or Brayden Maynard from Collingwood), or do we just try to improve the defensive skills of the players we have?

(If I haven't made it clear, I'm not in favour of putting HH down back. I was happy to do so when Haynes was out of form last year, and when Sam Taylor was injured this year, but not in the standard set up. I think he's superfluous to defence, and is better stationed in attack.)

What are your thoughts on our defence?
 
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Giant Strides said:
Thought I might take a look at our various lines during this break, one by one, starting with defence.

I know that AK has started HH in defence the last few weeks, but I can't figure out why he did so with Sam Taylor back this week, except for HH providing another option for distributing (and particularly big kicks out of D50). Maybe out of caution on Sam's return, since he only had 78% game time as opposed to normally mid to high 90%.

Anyway, I'd postulate that out optimal set-up in defence is:
Sam Taylor - Jack Buckley - Nick Haynes - Connor Idun - Lachie Whitfield - Isaac Cumming - Lachie Ash.

That is, two primary tall defenders, an intercepting tall defender, a defender who can play on both tall and small (so chop out during player rest, cover injuries), and three counterattacking small/medium defenders. The main weakness is really that none of the three medium/small defenders is really a close-defending player, so we can suffer trying to defend against the Charlie Camerons & Cody Weightmans of the comp.

Sam's injury this year was costly - we probably would have won the Richmond game if he played, as he would never have allowed Jack Reiwoldt to kick 5 goals. Sam & Jack are in my opinion the best 1-2 KPD combination in the AFL, but Jack did get exposed when he had to take the number 1 forward. Let's look at some stats for key defenders.

Sam Taylor: In the first 5 rounds of 2023, he had 52 intercepts (both air & ground), at an average of 10.4 per game. (I've ignored his half game against Lions when he was injured, and his return game, when he didn't play his normal game time. Even including those and allowing for his limited time versus Lions he'd be just under 10.) The next best is James Sicily at 9.33 per game. This backs up 2022, when Sam was best, ahead of Stewart & Sicily. Before his injury he was also leading the contested marks count for KPDs; even after missing games he's 4th on averages behind Ballard, Moore and Balta. In 1-on-1 contests, he has the 40th most contests because he was out injured, but apart from players with almost no contests, he has the best 1-on-1 loss rate (i.e. the least losses) at 5% - that is, he's lost just 1 of those 20 contests. Guys like Max Gawn (2 losses out of 18) and Jacob Weitering (6 losses out of 49 and 12%) are the next best. So, Sam rarely loses in contests, and takes a lot of marks to defuse opposition attacks. He is also ranked 9th for defenders in disposal efficiency.

Jack Buckley: Buckley's game complements Taylor's, and taking the number 2 opposition KPD allows our defence to heavily blank out tall attacks. Buckley has the league's most 1-on-1 contests, at 81, almost one third more than the next KPD (Charlie Ballard at 59). His loss rate increased while Taylor was missing, doubling to around 23% (similar to Ballard, but worse than Collins & May, and much worse than Moore & Weitering). Buckley is also top 10 in defence for 1%ers. He also leads KPDs in tackles (41, next best is 32), and pressure acts (145, next best is 116); and is second for spoils (just behind Harris Andrew, and just ahead of Sam Collins).

Nick Haynes: Nick's one-wood is his intercepting - he's not a great 1-on-1 player, but he complements the team well enough. In 2023 he's back near the top of his game, ranked third (behind Sicily and Luke Ryan, and ahead of Weitering and Callum Wilkie) in defender marks taken.

Connor Idun: Idun is neither a KPD nor a small/medium, rather an "in-betweener" so his stats are mixed. However, he's ranked 13th for total 1%ers and 16th for total intercepts, which are very good for a player who's not the "main player" in those regards for GWS.

I'll lump Lachie Whitfield, Isaac Cumming & Lachie Ash in together as stats for them are less standout. They rank 10th, 19th & 29th (on averages) for rebound 50s, although only 30th, 41st & 49th on metres gained. The last few games (apart from the injured Cummings) those stats have improved (in line with our scoring, and game results), so the counter-attack has been deficient early in the season, but has improved lately. I think that identifies part of our problem.

So, long story short, we've probably got one of the best tall "stopping" defensive set-ups, but our smaller defence and counter-attack needs to improve - the latter of which has done so in the last few weeks.

Looking longer term, we should have the Taylor-Buckley combo for 5 to 8 years, with Aleer under development. But with Davis and Keeffe hitting their use-by dates soon, we do IMHO need to draft another developing tall to cover for injuries, and also to take over in due course. If not, we need a decent role-player KPD who's happy to play mostly VFL with a sniff at AFL when injuries occur. Haynes is possibly only one or two years away from pulling the plug - I suspect that if he feels he no longer has what it takes he'll step away fairly quickly. The question will be who take his role - is that the best role for Aleer, does HH switch into that role for us, or is Cam Fleeton able to develop into that role (noting the kinds of stats he takes in VFL)?

For the medium smalls, I certainly don't agree with anyone advocating trading Ash out. He's finally hitting his straps in the role we drafted him for. I can see Josh Fahey plugging injury gaps for the next few years until it's time to take over from Whitfield. Our only concern would be the defensive capabilities of those players, so do we need to look for someone who can do that role (someone like Brandon Starcevich from Brisbane, or Brayden Maynard from Collingwood), or do we just try to improve the defensive skills of the players we have?

(If I haven't made it clear, I'm not in favour of putting HH down back. I was happy to do so when Haynes was out of form last year, and when Sam Taylor was injured this year, but not in the standard set up. I think he's superfluous to defence, and is better stationed in attack.)

What are your thoughts on our defence?
Click to expand...

My hypothesis re HH down back. The game plan is to play the tsunami and run the ball out of the back with overlap running to pierce zone defences and and create 1on1 opportunities for the forwards. We tend to play a split of roughly 3 or 4 smaller/running players depending on how you classify Idun with the remaining as talls. Taylor/Buckley/Haynes/idun are serviceable but non would be considered elite as distributors/playmakers.

Kingsley needs the smalls to be the players on the overlap creating the run and he also needs that initial penetrating kick that sets up the player up for the runners to overlap which then snowballs down the field as the play opens up.

By using HH as the distributor he is using a tall as a distributor rather than one of the smalls. Ie Whitfield has been too caught up as the distributor in the past which blunts his affective mess as a runner.

In essence HH becomes the quarterback/third tall and his role when we have it is to be that kick from D50 to HB/HBF with Perryman/Whitfield/Ash/cumming then overlap.

Although I don’t think playing him back from a defensive point of view is necessary, for the counter attack game plan it makes perfect sense. With Buckley and Taylor as key backs they are better served having the ball distributed so it doesn’t come back in than having a slightly better intercept defender.

Historically, how often would we try to switch in the defensive half only for the opposition to cut it off because we moved it too slowly
 
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JC100 said:
By using HH as the distributor he is using a tall as a distributor rather than one of the smalls. Ie Whitfield has been too caught up as the distributor in the past which blunts his affective mess as a runner.

In essence HH becomes the quarterback/third tall and his role when we have it is to be that kick from D50 to HB/HBF with Perryman/Whitfield/Ash/cumming then overlap.

Although I don’t think playing him back from a defensive point of view is necessary, for the counter attack game plan it makes perfect sense. With Buckley and Taylor as key backs they are better served having the ball distributed so it doesn’t come back in than having a slightly better intercept defender.
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That's a valid observation. I'd note that Taylor & Buckley have disposal efficiencies of 87% and 83% each, Haynes is 82%, but I'd argue that they do tend to go the "safer" distribution option, while others get the more difficult counter-attacking options. Still, I'm not convinced that 4 talls plus Idun and the small/medium defenders is sustainable.

Realistically, it indicates that - given HH's intercepting skills - he should replace Haynes in the lineup, and also act as the distributor.

I wonder if that means anything for Nick Haynes at end of season? Or is it just a short-term measure to kickstart our counter-attacking skills?
 
Giant Strides said:
That's a valid observation. I'd note that Taylor & Buckley have disposal efficiencies of 87% and 83% each, Haynes is 82%, but I'd argue that they do tend to go the "safer" distribution option, while others get the more difficult counter-attacking options. Still, I'm not convinced that 4 talls plus Idun and the small/medium defenders is sustainable.

Realistically, it indicates that - given HH's intercepting skills - he should replace Haynes in the lineup, and also act as the distributor.

I wonder if that means anything for Nick Haynes at end of season? Or is it just a short-term measure to kickstart our counter-attacking skills?
Click to expand...
The top 19 disposal efficiency percentages are defenders and 16 of those are key defenders who take see easy kicks around the back. Non of our key backs are poor kicks but they are definitely not trusted to bit off tough kicks.

Small defenders: Whitfield/cumming/Ash/perryman
Tall defenders: Taylor/Buckley/Idun/Haynes/HH

That is 9 defenders and too many. Haynes played on the wing and Cumming wasn’t selected. Does that mean Cumming’s spot is at risk going forward? Is Haynes on a wing sustainable? Does perryman move back into the midfield?

I’m not convinced Cumming gets a game if the rest are available. HH and Haynes prob playing for the same position.

Idun Taylor HH/Haynes
Ash Buckley Whitfield
Bench Perryman/Cumming
 

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Orange Agent said:
Finn has stepped up and shown how good he will be but the best thing is his body language on field indicates to me he has bought in and looks happy being here. Also suggests with his early re-signing, we didn't have to throw the kitchen sink in to get it done like most media will run with.
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He seems like a positive sort doesn't he. Gun footballer. Tom Green, Finn Callaghan and probably one more drafted soon will be the core midfield for hopefully the next tilt.
Jeez Josh Kelly is good. That's the prototype for Finn
 
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PaythePerryman said:
Tom Green, Finn Callaghan and probably one more drafted soon will be the core midfield for hopefully the next tilt.
Click to expand...
So, is there a guy in the current draft that you think we should be looking at to be "that next guy"? I feel that we are probably one inside/outside midfielder short in our current squad - when Kelly has been injured this year we've had to bring in Ward or Rowston who are inside mids and that hasn't replicated the desired team balance IMHO. Or is there an underused mid at another club who might bring a more ready-to-go skillset?
 
Giant Strides said:
So, is there a guy in the current draft that you think we should be looking at to be "that next guy"? I feel that we are probably one inside/outside midfielder short in our current squad - when Kelly has been injured this year we've had to bring in Ward or Rowston who are inside mids and that hasn't replicated the desired team balance IMHO. Or is there an underused mid at another club who might bring a more ready-to-go skillset?
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I was implying that Harley Reid might be that guy but given the way our picks are moving I don't think that's likely.

Internally I think Conor Stone still has so much upside but just hasn't been able to get his body right consistently. Back problems are always tough to come back from as we are seeing with Preuss.
I think Rowston could certainly end up being THAT GUY when the Cogs role becomes available. Apart from those two I don't really see it. Angwin and Wehr are both handy but probably not A graders.

From other clubs...I can't say I think about that too much as trading IN midfield talent hasn't been our forte so far.

That's a good question though.
Who is our best free agent pick up sunset say 2014?
 
PaythePerryman said:
I'm impressed with the gamestyle, now that we are getting players back it's starting to look quite nice.
Scoring has increased massively. Defensively we are giving up more overall but it's okay coz our backline is so solid 1on1.
I think there's a good mix of future stars coming through. Not just from high picks either. You expect Ash, Green, Callaghan to be good. The found gold is Buckley/Briggs/Idun/Riccardi and I've been super impressed with Brown's effort and finishing.
XO has found his mojo too.
Second half of the year will mean players like Leek and Stone might push for selection.
If we come off the bye with Daniels and Cumming added to the squad I don't see there being any reason we can't knock Melbourne around a little.
Future is looking bright.
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How do this years draftees look? Who might get a rising star nomination soon?
We might have to wait till next year to see them play well in the AFL, but as long as they are developing in the VFL that's OK.
 
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sydney_gws said:
How do this years draftees look? Who might get a rising star nomination soon?
We might have to wait till next year to see them play well in the AFL, but as long as they are developing in the VFL that's OK.
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Rowston, CADMAN if he can breakthrough with 3 goals or something

Realistically that's probably it without Derksen or Gruz getting in the squad.
 
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PaythePerryman said:
Who is our best free agent pick up sunset say 2014?
Click to expand...
Answering that specific question, for me it's:
  • no 1, undoubtedly (for me) it's Heath Shaw (2014-20); shaped & organised our backline into a competitive unit
  • second, probably Shane Mumford (2014-17, 19-21); his aggression and competitiveness (alongside Shaw) pushed us into finals
  • third, Matt de Boer (2017-22); his training standards helped pull the team up, plus his on-field tagging role helped get us into a GF
Toby Bedford may rise up that list in future; a role player that fixes a particular deficiency in our drafted squad.

[Edit: I released these were not specifically FAs, but I assume that you meant more broader pickups from other clubs.]
 
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Giant Strides said:
Answering that specific question, for me it's:
  • no 1, undoubtedly (for me) it's Heath Shaw (2014-20); shaped & organised our backline into a competitive unit
  • second, probably Shane Mumford (2014-17, 19-21); his aggression and competitiveness (alongside Shaw) pushed us into finals
  • third, Matt de Boer (2017-22); his training standards helped pull the team up, plus his on-field tagging role helped get us into a GF
Toby Bedford may rise up that list in future; a role player that fixes a particular deficiency in our drafted squad.

[Edit: I released these were not specifically FAs, but I assume that you meant more broader pickups from other clubs.]
Click to expand...
I'd agree with those top two for their ongoing legacies at the club.
Probably Stevie J as 3rd for me as an impact player going into our finals runs and also mentor to TFG.
 
Giant Strides said:
Thought I might take a look at our various lines during this break, one by one, starting with defence.

I know that AK has started HH in defence the last few weeks, but I can't figure out why he did so with Sam Taylor back this week, except for HH providing another option for distributing (and particularly big kicks out of D50). Maybe out of caution on Sam's return, since he only had 78% game time as opposed to normally mid to high 90%.

Anyway, I'd postulate that our optimal set-up in defence is:
Sam Taylor - Jack Buckley - Nick Haynes - Connor Idun - Lachie Whitfield - Isaac Cumming - Lachie Ash.

That is, two primary tall defenders, an intercepting tall defender, a defender who can play on both tall and small (so chop out during player rest, cover injuries), and three counterattacking small/medium defenders. The main weakness is really that none of the three medium/small defenders is really a close-defending player, so we can suffer trying to defend against the Charlie Camerons & Cody Weightmans of the comp.

Sam's injury this year was costly - we probably would have won the Richmond game if he played, as he would never have allowed Jack Reiwoldt to kick 5 goals. Sam & Jack are in my opinion the best 1-2 KPD combination in the AFL, but Jack did get exposed when he had to take the number 1 forward. Let's look at some stats for key defenders.

Sam Taylor: In the first 5 rounds of 2023, he had 52 intercepts (both air & ground), at an average of 10.4 per game. (I've ignored his half game against Lions when he was injured, and his return game, when he didn't play his normal game time. Even including those and allowing for his limited time versus Lions he'd be just under 10.) The next best is James Sicily at 9.33 per game. This backs up 2022, when Sam was best, ahead of Stewart & Sicily. Before his injury he was also leading the contested marks count for KPDs; even after missing games he's 4th on averages behind Ballard, Moore and Balta. In 1-on-1 contests, he has the 40th most contests because he was out injured, but apart from players with almost no contests, he has the best 1-on-1 loss rate (i.e. the least losses) at 5% - that is, he's lost just 1 of those 20 contests. Guys like Max Gawn (2 losses out of 18) and Jacob Weitering (6 losses out of 49 and 12%) are the next best. So, Sam rarely loses in contests, and takes a lot of marks to defuse opposition attacks. He is also ranked 9th for defenders in disposal efficiency.

Jack Buckley: Buckley's game complements Taylor's, and taking the number 2 opposition KPD allows our defence to heavily blank out tall attacks. Buckley has the league's most 1-on-1 contests, at 81, almost one third more than the next KPD (Charlie Ballard at 59). His loss rate increased while Taylor was missing, doubling to around 23% (similar to Ballard, but worse than Collins & May, and much worse than Moore & Weitering). Buckley is also top 10 in defence for 1%ers. He also leads KPDs in tackles (41, next best is 32), and pressure acts (145, next best is 116); and is second for spoils (just behind Harris Andrew, and just ahead of Sam Collins).

Nick Haynes: Nick's one-wood is his intercepting - he's not a great 1-on-1 player, but he complements the team well enough. In 2023 he's back near the top of his game, ranked third (behind Sicily and Luke Ryan, and ahead of Weitering and Callum Wilkie) in defender marks taken.

Connor Idun: Idun is neither a KPD nor a small/medium, rather an "in-betweener" so his stats are mixed. However, he's ranked 13th for total 1%ers and 16th for total intercepts, which are very good for a player who's not the "main player" in those regards for GWS.

I'll lump Lachie Whitfield, Isaac Cumming & Lachie Ash in together as stats for them are less standout. They rank 10th, 19th & 29th (on averages) for rebound 50s, although only 30th, 41st & 49th on metres gained. The last few games (apart from the injured Cummings) those stats have improved (in line with our scoring, and game results), so the counter-attack has been deficient early in the season, but has improved lately. I think that identifies part of our problem.

So, long story short, we've probably got one of the best tall "stopping" defensive set-ups, but our smaller defence and counter-attack needs to improve - the latter of which has done so in the last few weeks.

Looking longer term, we should have the Taylor-Buckley combo for 5 to 8 years, with Aleer under development. But with Davis and Keeffe hitting their use-by dates soon, we do IMHO need to draft another developing tall to cover for injuries, and also to take over in due course. If not, we need a decent role-player KPD who's happy to play mostly VFL with a sniff at AFL when injuries occur. Haynes is possibly only one or two years away from pulling the plug - I suspect that if he feels he no longer has what it takes he'll step away fairly quickly. The question will be who takes his role - is that the best role for Aleer, does HH switch into that role for us, or is Cam Fleeton able to develop into that role (noting the kinds of stats he takes in VFL)?

For the medium smalls, I certainly don't agree with anyone advocating trading Ash out. He's finally hitting his straps in the role we drafted him for. I can see Josh Fahey plugging injury gaps for the next few years until it's time to take over from Whitfield. Our only concern would be the defensive capabilities of those players, so do we need to look for someone who can do that role (someone like Brandon Starcevich from Brisbane, or Brayden Maynard from Collingwood), or do we just try to improve the defensive skills of the players we have?

(If I haven't made it clear, I'm not in favour of putting HH down back. I was happy to do so when Haynes was out of form last year, and when Sam Taylor was injured this year, but not in the standard set up. I think he's superfluous to defence, and is better stationed in attack.)

What are your thoughts on our defence?
Click to expand...
Our defence is starting to look really good and well rounded.

I used to be with you on Harry H being a Forward. I think Ive gone 360, he plays a big role in us rebounding and is a pretty good defender one on one and coming in as 3rd man for the intercept.

A couple of those quick handballs to Ash and Whitfield running through on the weekend were a touch of class you dont get from most defenders. Im leaning towards playing defence.
 
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GWS Goose said:
I think I've gone 360, he plays a big role in us rebounding and is a pretty good defender one on one and coming in as 3rd man for the intercept.

I'm leaning towards playing defence.
Click to expand...
That's a 180 degree turn. 360 degrees gets you back to playing forward! ;)

My problem is that it gets us to playing a 4.5 tall defence (Taylor, Buckley, Haynes, HH & 0.5 is Idun). Or we stick Haynes on a wing, which was supposedly the case against Freo (I need to look at the game again to watch his positioning during play.) Neither of those is a great outcome IMHO - it might have worked against a disappointing Freo, but can it work against stronger teams?

From your first sentence, the inference is that HH should replace Haynes as the third defender - better 1-on-1, almost as able an interceptor, and better ball distributor.
 
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I had meant to mention my views on the "backup" players for defence.

Essentially: Phil Davis - Lachie Keeffe - Leek Aleer - Cam Fleeton - Josh Fahey - Cooper Hamilton - Jacob Wehr / Adam Kennedy & maybe Callum Brown

When you look at the second echelon, it becomes a bit less clear-cut, as players often cover multiple roles. For example, you could consider Wehr either a HBF, or a winger, given he played that role in rounds 1 & 2. Callum Brown has played semi-tall in defence, as a medium-quick defender, but in these last few games is showing promise as a speedy forward. So where does he actually fit? Kenners was put into a medium forward category for this season, but I'd opine he is a HBF, being re-roled due to the personnel situation.

And then the forwards. What's Aleer's best role - second KPD, or intercepting defender (i.e. Haynes' role)? If HH stays, and takes over Haynes' role, what does that mean for Aleer? What's Cam Fleeton's best role? Is it the Haynes' role, in which case the need to retain him becomes murkier. Is it Connor Idun's role, covering both tall and small? Is it a mix of all 3? i.e. a multi-role guy, perhaps not expert at any particular role, but able to plug a number of injury gaps - which is a useful skill to have within any team's squad.

So, my view is that our defence is the best, most stable line that we have (as per my previous post). And the back-up echelon mirrors the primary set-up (2 x KPDs, interceptor, tall/small, 3 x running or defensive defenders and I'm counting Wehr as a winger & Brown now as a forward). They are OK to plug injury gaps, Davis & Keeffe though are nearing retirement, and guys like Aleer and Fahey have definite upside to improve into first 22 players, pushing someone out. Unsure on Fleeton - he has talent, but is it first grade level - while Kenners & Hamilton are role players.

Presuming that at least Phil Davis retires (surely he has to with his body?!), then we would want to look for a KPD in the draft to start developing alongside Aleer. Someone bigger, able to play first or second defender rather than someone with intercepting skills as their primary tool. Hence, Connor O'Sullivan (incidentally, a NSW kid), looks a good option. I suspect that Keeffe might stay on as an "experienced" KPD, to get some distance between defender draftees rather than needing to get 2 in this draft if both Davis & Keeffe retired. There might also be thoughts about his ability to be an additional backup ruck.

The summary of that is I think: Davis to retire, with GWS chasing a KPD draftee; Keeffe probably stays for another year (to the chagrin of many here), Kennedy has one more year on his contract and given his latest injury that might well be his last year - but GWS won't dump him out in the cold this year. There are players such as Wehr, Gilbee and Brown who can cover as medium defenders if required.

Overall, I think the defensive pool is pretty decent. It would probably only be improved by a better back-up KPD than either an injury-riddled Davis, or a slow, cumbersome Keeffe.
 
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