Play Nice 2019 Non AFL Admin, Crowds, Ratings, Participation etc thread

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Even with nrl, you need a production company employing ft staff for just nine months. That's a huge cost, for two sports, that they already provide to all their subscribers for free

It would end up costing over $1billion all up for sport broadcasting and movies. Whether it’s worth that or not who knows. The problem is Fox will demand a lot more next rights from them for streaming you would imagine considering they now have Kayo. It will just come down to how much Telstra want to diversify.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

It would end up costing over $1billion all up for sport broadcasting and movies. Whether it’s worth that or not who knows. The problem is Fox will demand a lot more next rights from them for streaming you would imagine considering they now have Kayo. It will just come down to how much Telstra want to diversify.

Jfyi Telstra are looking to dump their Foxtel investment

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Jfyi Telstra are looking to dump their Foxtel investment

Which makes me think they could become a competitor in the future. They already have all the infrastructure to supply the content it’s just the production they would have to add.
When a family of say 4 could be spending around $3000 on phones/internet than every customer they maintain and can attract are extremely important

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Which makes me think they could become a competitor in the future. They already have all the infrastructure to supply the content it’s just the production they would have to add.
When a family of say 4 could be spending around $3000 on phones/internet than every customer they maintain and can attract are extremely important

No, they want out of content and want to focus on their bread and butter

Thinking Telstra are going to spend $1b on content is a pipedream

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

No, they want out of content and want to focus on their bread and butter

Thinking Telstra are going to spend $1b on content is a pipedream

I could be wrong but I thought they said in their 2022 vision or whatever it was that they wanted to improve their digital entertainment. It seems crazy that they will be just setting up a platform (5g for example) for other companies to exploit. They really have two options and that’s beat the opposition on price or content. Content could be the easiest and possibly the cheapest way considering they are already setting up to be able to deliver it.

It’s just hard to see in the next rights they end up with what they have right now. It’ll be all or nothing imo.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I could be wrong but I thought they said in their 2022 vision or whatever it was that they wanted to improve their digital entertainment. It seems crazy that they will be just setting up a platform (5g for example) for other companies to exploit. They really have two options and that’s beat the opposition on price or content. Content could be the easiest and possibly the cheapest way considering they are already setting up to be able to deliver it.

It’s just hard to see in the next rights they end up with what they have right now. It’ll be all or nothing imo.

Improving their entertainment platforms doesn't mean they want to make content.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Improving their entertainment platforms doesn't mean they want to make content.

It’s just hard to see who will give it to them this time. Kayo wasn’t available last rights so Fox won’t hand the rights to a streaming competitor. It’s going to be extremely interesting.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

It’s just hard to see who will give it to them this time. Kayo wasn’t available last rights so Fox won’t hand the rights to a streaming competitor. It’s going to be extremely interesting.

That's my original point. With Foxtel downsizing and FTA on the decline, all sports including the AFL are looking at a haircut imo for coming deals

On the streamers we haven't discussed, Netflix and Amazon have massive budgets, but that is for primarily USA content (and Netflix is also looking for cost savings on its existing library)

 

[jatz14]

There’s no way they would just take on AFL and not NRL so they would have to go the whole hog in broadcasting if they went down that route. Otherwise it would just be pointless.
The only reason they would bother doing any of this is if Optus or another streaming provider try and take the rights from them. Long term even Kayo which is great will make very little financial sense unless the companies push up there subscription prices which in turn would turn customers away.

Telstra is the only company who has a customer base that can really cover the costs in broardcasting and for TV rights. If people have the option of paying a little more and getting a really good exclusive movie/tv show streaming channel to go with exclusive rights to NRL, AFL and EPL for example rather than paying a little less at Optus with no sports and inferior TV/Movie streaming than people would probably go with Telstra and it could work. There just seems no other way sports can make anywhere near the money they are currently from streaming.

That's the problem, it's an existing customer base. There is a reason you can get better deals to switch banks than stay with your current bank.

Even with the (minimal) threat of Optus, there is a limit to the amount of new money they will spend on old customers.

Remember, Optus will have the same issues. Could they afford AFL and NRL rights, and to set up a production house? How many new customers would it get them?

Would the AFL sell exclusive rights to Optus? Personally think they would be mad to even consider it.

Optus would have to decide a huge outlay is going to bring in enough new customers to pay for it, set up a production house, convince the 2 biggest sports in the country that locking their product away on Optus isn't cutting their own throat.

Telstra would have to decide that this was possible, and would strip enough customers from them that it was worth huge expense to counter. An expense which would not likely make its money back, to keep those customers.

I do not think 1 single thing in that sequence is likely.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

That's the problem, it's an existing customer base. There is a reason you can get better deals to switch banks than stay with your current bank.

Even with the (minimal) threat of Optus, there is a limit to the amount of new money they will spend on old customers.

Remember, Optus will have the same issues. Could they afford AFL and NRL rights, and to set up a production house? How many new customers would it get them?

Would the AFL sell exclusive rights to Optus? Personally think they would be mad to even consider it.

Optus would have to decide a huge outlay is going to bring in enough new customers to pay for it, set up a production house, convince the 2 biggest sports in the country that locking their product away on Optus isn't cutting their own throat.

Telstra would have to decide that this was possible, and would strip enough customers from them that it was worth huge expense to counter. An expense which would not likely make its money back, to keep those customers.

I do not think 1 single thing in that sequence is likely.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk

I think Telstra’s worry would be they will most likely lose any streaming rights to AFL and NRL next rights because Fox will keep them for Kayo.
All Telstra are left with is a more expensive mobile service over its customers.

I do think sports are in trouble though if there is no company like fox trying to monopolies sports. Paying for a single sport to stream won’t add up financially

 

[kaypee]

I think Telstra’s worry would be they will most likely lose any streaming rights to AFL and NRL next rights because Fox will keep them for Kayo.
All Telstra are left with is a more expensive mobile service over its customers.

I do think sports are in trouble though if there is no company like fox trying to monopolies sports. Paying for a single sport to stream won’t add up financially

What if sports formed alliances? AFL and Cricket bundle their rights/ share stadium and production costs/ cross promote etc. Be a formidable package. NRL could align with aleague etc

 

[jatz14]

What if sports formed alliances? AFL and Cricket bundle their rights/ share stadium and production costs/ cross promote etc. Be a formidable package. NRL could align with aleague etc

The experience with drama and TV streaming is the opposite though. Producers are taking back their product from streamers like Netflix, to offer it themselves, streamers become producers to guarantee content. More streaming services, all with `exclusive` content are more and more fragmenting the marketplace.

If the same is replicated for streaming sports, its unlikely we will see 1 streamer able to pay more for a bundle of sports than could be got by selling each sport separately to a different streamer.

There is a concept in evolution, where an organism evolves step by step into a dead end. Each evolutionary step is appropriate given the circumstances, but the end result of these right steps is oblivion. Sports consumers may be doing the same thing. Its logical to ditch high cost ways of accessing sport in favour of cheaper options. We want our high quality sport as cheaply as possible, but in the long run, consumer choices and high quality sport may be incompatible. If streamers are left at a price point that does not let them pay the sorts of prices sports need for the big shows like AFL, NRL etc, but consumers abandoning platforms like Foxtel leaves them unable to pay either, then we may be at the high water mark of pro sport in Australia.

It may take a truly global sport, and global teams to be able to generate the cashflow we are used to seeing.

AFLs non broadcasting revenues are good which leaves them in a good position relative to other sports, but it will still be a painful process. Can you imagine the repercussions if the AFL`s revenue from the next rights deal fell $200 mill a year?

 

[Rob]

AFL or any other Australian sport going alone in streaming could be a disaster imo.

Well the big 3 anyway. Most other sports don't have a lot to lose.

But those big 3 have something every other sport doesn't - and that's the ability to generate huge dollars for FTA networks. That remains to this day, and while that continues to be the case FTA networks will be happy to pay big dollars for the rights.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Well the big 3 anyway. Most other sports don't have a lot to lose.

But those big 3 have something every other sport doesn't - and that's the ability to generate huge dollars for FTA networks. That remains to this day, and while that continues to be the case FTA networks will be happy to pay big dollars for the rights.

I’m pretty sure FTA actually lose money on AFL and NRL. The A league is in the most trouble though, no doubt.

 

[Gigantor]

I’m pretty sure FTA actually lose money on AFL and NRL. The A league is in the most trouble though, no doubt.

Although which network is perpetually in financial trouble?

 

[Aussie in exile]

The experience with drama and TV streaming is the opposite though. Producers are taking back their product from streamers like Netflix, to offer it themselves, streamers become producers to guarantee content. More streaming services, all with `exclusive` content are more and more fragmenting the marketplace.

If the same is replicated for streaming sports, its unlikely we will see 1 streamer able to pay more for a bundle of sports than could be got by selling each sport separately to a different streamer.

There is a concept in evolution, where an organism evolves step by step into a dead end. Each evolutionary step is appropriate given the circumstances, but the end result of these right steps is oblivion. Sports consumers may be doing the same thing. Its logical to ditch high cost ways of accessing sport in favour of cheaper options. We want our high quality sport as cheaply as possible, but in the long run, consumer choices and high quality sport may be incompatible. If streamers are left at a price point that does not let them pay the sorts of prices sports need for the big shows like AFL, NRL etc, but consumers abandoning platforms like Foxtel leaves them unable to pay either, then we may be at the high water mark of pro sport in Australia.

It may take a truly global sport, and global teams to be able to generate the cashflow we are used to seeing.

AFLs non broadcasting revenues are good which leaves them in a good position relative to other sports, but it will still be a painful process. Can you imagine the repercussions if the AFL`s revenue from the next rights deal fell $200 mill a year?

A drop of $200 mill a year would see the end of GWS, Suns and Lions imho

 

[Gigantor]

A drop of $200 mill a year would see the end of GWS, Suns and Lions imho

Of all the major sports, the AFL relies the least on broadcasting revenue (in proportionate terms).

Plus the AFL clearly has the biggest supporter base, daylight is second. That's why it gets the biggest memberships, biggest attendances and biggest sponsorship dollars.

The AFL started planning for this day years ago, it's best positioned to at least maintain constant overall revenues.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Of all the major sports, the AFL relies the least on broadcasting revenue (in proportionate terms).

Plus the AFL clearly has the biggest supporter base, daylight is second. That's why it gets the biggest memberships, biggest attendances and biggest sponsorship dollars.

The AFL started planning for this day years ago, it's best positioned to at least maintain constant overall revenues.

I'm not disagreeing with that at all, but stating the obvious that a drop of $200 mill a year would see the end of the Giants, Suns and Lions.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I'm not disagreeing with that at all, but stating the obvious that a drop of $200 mill a year would see the end of the Giants, Suns and Lions.

$200mil would but it won’t be that big.
If there is a substantial fall than atleast there is a hell of a lot of fat the afl can chop without having much affect. All I think we will see change is, the salary cap stalling and a lowering of the football department spending cap. A few AFL officials losing their jobs and the end of bonuses for board members and junket’s from top to bottom

 

[NoobPie]

I'm not disagreeing with that at all, but stating the obvious that a drop of $200 mill a year would see the end of the Giants, Suns and Lions.

And if your aunty had balls she'd be your brother-in-laws uncle by marriage

 

[Ned_Flanders]

$200mil would but it won’t be that big.
If there is a substantial fall than atleast there is a hell of a lot of fat the afl can chop without having much affect. All I think we will see change is, the salary cap stalling and a lowering of the football department spending cap. A few AFL officials losing their jobs and the end of bonuses for board members and junket’s from top to bottom

A $200m fall isnt insane

The current 6 year deal is $2.5b ($418m pa), with $1.3b from Foxtel ($217m pa), $900m from Seven ($150m pa), and $300m from Telstra ($50m pa)

Optus has taken a bath on the EPL, so the chances of them being a legit competitor are low IMO.

FTA is facing declining audiences and ad revenues - and sport was historically used as a loss leader to attract interest for these

and we have the collapse in Foxtel numbers combined with the planned reduction in their sport spend.

I agree, a 50% reduction is unlikely, but if the above continues with a recession in Australia effecting ad buys, anything is possible

 

[NoobPie]

A $200m fall isnt insane

The current 6 year deal is $2.5b ($418m pa), with $1.3b from Foxtel ($217m pa), $900m from Seven ($150m pa), and $300m from Telstra ($50m pa)

Optus has taken a bath on the EPL, so the chances of them being a legit competitor are low IMO.

FTA is facing declining audiences and ad revenues - and sport was historically used as a loss leader to attract interest for these

and we have the collapse in Foxtel numbers combined with the planned reduction in their sport spend.

I agree, a 50% reduction is unlikely, but if the above continues with a recession in Australia effecting ad buys, anything is possible

You can't use the amount that Optus over-paid for the EPL as having any relevance to the AFL rights.

The worst increase they have had in 30 years is about 50% IIRC. A 50% reduction is far less likely than them doubling again.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

A $200m fall isnt insane

The current 6 year deal is $2.5b ($418m pa), with $1.3b from Foxtel ($217m pa), $900m from Seven ($150m pa), and $300m from Telstra ($50m pa)

Optus has taken a bath on the EPL, so the chances of them being a legit competitor are low IMO.

FTA is facing declining audiences and ad revenues - and sport was historically used as a loss leader to attract interest for these

and we have the collapse in Foxtel numbers combined with the planned reduction in their sport spend.

I agree, a 50% reduction is unlikely, but if the above continues with a recession in Australia effecting ad buys, anything is possible

It would be insane considering in the last thirty years the smallest increase has been 50%

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You can't use the amount that Optus over-paid for the EPL as having any relevance to the AFL rights.

The worst increase they have had in 30 years is about 50% IIRC. A 50% reduction is far less likely than them doubling again.

Well you beat me to that

 

[Ned_Flanders]

You can't use the amount that Optus over-paid for the EPL as having any relevance to the AFL rights.

The worst increase they have had in 30 years is about 50% IIRC. A 50% reduction is far less likely than them doubling again.

and what drove those increases?

1) competition
you had 7 and 9 outbidding each other because sport was a key loss leader to boost ad revenues for other network products. Having a loss leader is only viable however if your ad revenues elsewhere make up for it. The fact you now have 7 as an underbidder, and 10 were not even prepared to pony up the coin for one coin underlines that this dynamic has changed.

network bean counters are getting more and more ruthless with the sports budgets, so who do you think will be stepping up with a 50% increase for 2023? The competition is now MAFS and the other reality TV shlop, which is dirt cheap to produce.

2) Foxtel
Is bleeding subscribers, with the drop accelerating since GOT ended. With Kayo now an option, Foxtel earns significantly less for each subscriber, with no chance of upgrading them onto movie/comedy/etc channels

3) Economics
Australia has not had a recession in over two decades. We are looking down the barrel of one now, with unemployment rising, inflation dead, and govt debt already high. I dont think you're old enough to remember the last recession we had here, but discretionary spending goes out the window. This will impact both pay tv and subscriber services, and FTA (channel 10 barely made it out of the last recession)


Thinking AFL TV rights will always go up regardless of the economic circumstances is naive. Its not how many punters are watching, its how many punters are willing to pay for watching or are willing to buy advertisers products.