- Banned
- #1
Most of the threads I see here are more like player rankings than phantom drafts, but with the initial draft order all but finalized, now is a good time to start rolling out the phantoms.
Quick disclaimer: I haven't watched as many U18 games as some of the other posters on this board, so if you're looking for a resource on player info, you have better options. Phantom Drafts not only take player quality into account, but also team needs. This order is based on my viewing knowledge of U18 games (mainly what's been broadcast or replayed), player information from both the draft hub here on sites like draftcentral and what I believe are each teams needs, taking into account what I've read on each team board.
Obviously the true order isn't finalized with the trade period yet to take place, but now is a good idea to gauge what certain teams are looking for in terms of youth. If you have any suggestions, feel free to make them. Also, keep in mind the term "best available" is subjective, and historically, many clubs conveniently align it with what they happen to need at the time of selection, contrary to public expectation (I'm looking at you, St Kilda 2014).
Pick #1, Gold Coast - Matthew Rowell
Not much to be said here, clear #1 selection after a dominant NAB League Grand Final.
Pick #2, Gold Coast - Noah Anderson
For the record, yes, I firmly expect the Gold Coast to receive a priority pick, and they will select Rowell's Oakleigh/Carey team mate, perceived by many to be the next best player in the draft.
Pick #3, GWS - Tom Green
I see Melbourne making their bid here, which will force GWS to use pick 12.
Pick #4, Melbourne - Caleb Serong
Obviously it hasn't been a good year for Melbourne, but if you look at them on paper, it feels like the building blocks are still there: a strong defence with quality rebounders, some of the best midfield bulls you could ask for and arguably the best ruckman in the league. One area of concern would be their forward line, but with no real standout forwards in this pick range, the next best thing is to target a gun capable of playing forward. Serong could just add that element of craftiness through both Melbourne's midfield and possibly up forward.
Pick #5, Adelaide - Lachlan Ash
To me, Adelaide this year just looked too slow, and too predictable. With talent so evenly spread across the next few picks, I think the logical selection is to bring in some fast, line-breaking x-factor, who can hit targets with pin-point accuracy. I think there is a strong chance Adelaide downgrade this pick, or split it as some call it, and move to pick up the local South Australian prospect Dylan Stephens, who also gives them exactly what they're looking for.
Pick #6, Sydney - Brodie Kemp
This draft looks to be the starting point of a rebuilding period for Sydney, and there's no better place to start than the best available talent. He tore his ACL, but I don't think that will affect his draft placement much, because looking at the state of Sydney's list, Kemp is exactly what the doctor ordered for them going forward. Brings some much needed class, along with the ability to play a multitude of roles. With Jack, McVeigh, N.Smith, Grundy and possibly more key players leaving in the future, there are plenty of roles a player like Kemp could be developed in.
Pick #7, St Kilda - Hayden Young
St Kilda is quite possibly the worst kicking team in the competition, so it's only natural they should target one of the best kicking players in the draft. I have no doubt they'd look to develop Young as a midfield/wingman to complement a very strong, hardworking midfield having serious problems with forward entries.
Pick #8, Fremantle - Deven Robertson
Very much a safe selection here. I could see Fremantle being more inclined to add some class and running power with the impending departures of Brad Hill and Ed Langdon, but with the volume of key-position players they've stockpiled over the last 3 years, it's also a very good time to reinforce the talent in the centre. Robertson would come with no risk of homesickness and would help make up for what Fremantle lost in Lachie Neale.
Pick #9, North Melbourne - Fischer McAsey
Scott Thompson retiring, Robbie Tarrant turning 31 next year, and both Sam Durdin and Ben McKay probably haven't fulfilled their potential. Now is the right time for North Melbourne to target a long-term destroyer-class key-defender, and McAsey fits the bill better than anyone else at pick #8.
Pick #10, Carlton - Luke Jackson
Perhaps a surprise pick here. Looking forward, Carlton to me look pretty solid across the board: quality young key positions players at both ends and boast some of the best young midfielders in the competition. They seem to obsessively want small forwards, but seem more inclined to bring them in through trades. That leaves one glaring problem that sticks out: the ruck. Kreuzer turns 31 next year and is historically injury prone, which leaves Andrew Phillips as their next best #1 ruck option, who just isn't very good at football. Selecting Luke Jackson, the best ruck prospect in this year's pool, would address a glaring long-term weakness in an otherwise very solid, well-rounded team, especially considering how important the #1 ruck role is becoming in today's game.
Pick #11, Port Adelaide - Dylan Stephens
Very easy decision. After seeing Zak Butters in action this year, I have no doubt Port will be salivating over the prospect of adding more outside class, particularly from a home grown talent like Stephens.
Pick #12, Hawthorn - Sam Flanders
Does anyone have a pillow? You might want to put one below the chin of the Hawthorn recruiter upon realizing Flanders is available at pick 12. Rather than being based on any kind of team needs, Flanders is a flat-out best available pick, who I'm sure Hawthorn would be stoked to land, should they be lucky enough to get this opportunity. Flanders would heavily reinforce their midfield long-term, and could even possibly be groomed as the long-term heir to Breust. As for why I see him dropping this far: he hasn't always been the most consistent across 4 quarters, and I think recruiters are historically more attracted to the attributes offered by previously selected players. Just a small hunch though.
Pick #13, Western Bulldogs - Cody Weightman
As a Bulldogs supporter, I can safely say I'm much more in tune with my club's priorities than other clubs, and the two things the Bulldogs need more than anything are big key-defenders and crafty small forwards. With McAsey off the board, Weightman is clearly the best candidate. He's quick, he takes big marks, he can kick goals from 50 meters out; he's pretty much what Doggies supporters have been crying out for. With Dickson reaching the end of his career, the Bulldogs would have a natural heir to his role.
Pick #14 - Fremantle - Liam Henry
At this point, I think West Coast will make the bid having just lost Rioli, and Fremantle will match. As straight-forward as it gets.
Pick #15 - Hawthorn - Finn Maginness
West Coast have been shoring up their tall stocks through the draft the last few years but looking at their young midfielders, the talent looks a bit thin. No better time to bid on Hawthorn's father/son prospect, which will undoubtedly prompt Hawthorn to match.
Pick #16 - Port Adelaide - Jackson Mead
A hat-trick of matched bids. Nothing too much to say, other than that he's one of the many quality midfielders available in this pick range, and Port Adelaide would be expected to match.
Pick #17, West Coast - Trent Bianco
Somewhat of a bolter with his late season form. His future is very clearly in the midfield in my opinion, and with high production, high quality ball use, could be an ideal long-term replacement for Luke Shuey. West Coast historically do not shy away from taking young Victorian midfielders out of their home state.
Pick #18, Gold Coast - Will Gould
With the struggles the Gold Coast backline have been dealing with over the last few years, a player like Gould would definitely appeal to them. On top of being battle-hardened and ready to go, also fits the bill as a potential leader in defence, and understands what it takes to achieve on-field success, having done so for Glenelg this year.
Pick #19, Brisbane - Miles Bergman
Brisbane boast a pretty well-rounded that's as strong as it's ever been for 10 years, but with Zorko and Robinson turning 31 next year, it might be time to provide a bit more reinforcement to the midfield, and Bergman is probably who I'd rate as the next best available.
Pick #20, Geelong - Trent Rivers
I'm not going to lie; if I were a Geelong supporter, I'd be very concerned with the state of the list right now. They may have finished on top of the ladder, but looking at their contingent of players aged 18-23, it's like a barren wasteland, besides some gems like Parfitt. This is the toll they paid by trading so many first round picks for older, experienced players. They need just about everything besides maybe defenders, and a player like Rivers could potentially serve as the first building block for their midfield of the future. I could also see them strongly considering local Geelong Falcons product Cooper Stephens.
Pick #21, Richmond - Josh Worrell
Things are obviously looking nice for Richmond right now; their Premiership Window is gaping wide open, and it'll likely stay open for the next few years, but as far as the next generation of talent goes, Richmond haven't exactly helped themselves in the last 5-7 years. There's a bit of a dearth of genuine high quality talent aged 18-23 across the field, so with guys like Riewoldt, Rance, Cotchin, Martin & others in their late 20s/early 30s, now would be a good time to start bringing in a strong intake of young talent. Josh Worrell would be viewed as a long-term successor to Alex Rance, and with Astbury and Grimes also in their late 20s, now is a very good time for Richmond to start developing a quality young key-defender.
Quick disclaimer: I haven't watched as many U18 games as some of the other posters on this board, so if you're looking for a resource on player info, you have better options. Phantom Drafts not only take player quality into account, but also team needs. This order is based on my viewing knowledge of U18 games (mainly what's been broadcast or replayed), player information from both the draft hub here on sites like draftcentral and what I believe are each teams needs, taking into account what I've read on each team board.
Obviously the true order isn't finalized with the trade period yet to take place, but now is a good idea to gauge what certain teams are looking for in terms of youth. If you have any suggestions, feel free to make them. Also, keep in mind the term "best available" is subjective, and historically, many clubs conveniently align it with what they happen to need at the time of selection, contrary to public expectation (I'm looking at you, St Kilda 2014).
Pick #1, Gold Coast - Matthew Rowell
Not much to be said here, clear #1 selection after a dominant NAB League Grand Final.
Pick #2, Gold Coast - Noah Anderson
For the record, yes, I firmly expect the Gold Coast to receive a priority pick, and they will select Rowell's Oakleigh/Carey team mate, perceived by many to be the next best player in the draft.
Pick #3, GWS - Tom Green
I see Melbourne making their bid here, which will force GWS to use pick 12.
Pick #4, Melbourne - Caleb Serong
Obviously it hasn't been a good year for Melbourne, but if you look at them on paper, it feels like the building blocks are still there: a strong defence with quality rebounders, some of the best midfield bulls you could ask for and arguably the best ruckman in the league. One area of concern would be their forward line, but with no real standout forwards in this pick range, the next best thing is to target a gun capable of playing forward. Serong could just add that element of craftiness through both Melbourne's midfield and possibly up forward.
Pick #5, Adelaide - Lachlan Ash
To me, Adelaide this year just looked too slow, and too predictable. With talent so evenly spread across the next few picks, I think the logical selection is to bring in some fast, line-breaking x-factor, who can hit targets with pin-point accuracy. I think there is a strong chance Adelaide downgrade this pick, or split it as some call it, and move to pick up the local South Australian prospect Dylan Stephens, who also gives them exactly what they're looking for.
Pick #6, Sydney - Brodie Kemp
This draft looks to be the starting point of a rebuilding period for Sydney, and there's no better place to start than the best available talent. He tore his ACL, but I don't think that will affect his draft placement much, because looking at the state of Sydney's list, Kemp is exactly what the doctor ordered for them going forward. Brings some much needed class, along with the ability to play a multitude of roles. With Jack, McVeigh, N.Smith, Grundy and possibly more key players leaving in the future, there are plenty of roles a player like Kemp could be developed in.
Pick #7, St Kilda - Hayden Young
St Kilda is quite possibly the worst kicking team in the competition, so it's only natural they should target one of the best kicking players in the draft. I have no doubt they'd look to develop Young as a midfield/wingman to complement a very strong, hardworking midfield having serious problems with forward entries.
Pick #8, Fremantle - Deven Robertson
Very much a safe selection here. I could see Fremantle being more inclined to add some class and running power with the impending departures of Brad Hill and Ed Langdon, but with the volume of key-position players they've stockpiled over the last 3 years, it's also a very good time to reinforce the talent in the centre. Robertson would come with no risk of homesickness and would help make up for what Fremantle lost in Lachie Neale.
Pick #9, North Melbourne - Fischer McAsey
Scott Thompson retiring, Robbie Tarrant turning 31 next year, and both Sam Durdin and Ben McKay probably haven't fulfilled their potential. Now is the right time for North Melbourne to target a long-term destroyer-class key-defender, and McAsey fits the bill better than anyone else at pick #8.
Pick #10, Carlton - Luke Jackson
Perhaps a surprise pick here. Looking forward, Carlton to me look pretty solid across the board: quality young key positions players at both ends and boast some of the best young midfielders in the competition. They seem to obsessively want small forwards, but seem more inclined to bring them in through trades. That leaves one glaring problem that sticks out: the ruck. Kreuzer turns 31 next year and is historically injury prone, which leaves Andrew Phillips as their next best #1 ruck option, who just isn't very good at football. Selecting Luke Jackson, the best ruck prospect in this year's pool, would address a glaring long-term weakness in an otherwise very solid, well-rounded team, especially considering how important the #1 ruck role is becoming in today's game.
Pick #11, Port Adelaide - Dylan Stephens
Very easy decision. After seeing Zak Butters in action this year, I have no doubt Port will be salivating over the prospect of adding more outside class, particularly from a home grown talent like Stephens.
Pick #12, Hawthorn - Sam Flanders
Does anyone have a pillow? You might want to put one below the chin of the Hawthorn recruiter upon realizing Flanders is available at pick 12. Rather than being based on any kind of team needs, Flanders is a flat-out best available pick, who I'm sure Hawthorn would be stoked to land, should they be lucky enough to get this opportunity. Flanders would heavily reinforce their midfield long-term, and could even possibly be groomed as the long-term heir to Breust. As for why I see him dropping this far: he hasn't always been the most consistent across 4 quarters, and I think recruiters are historically more attracted to the attributes offered by previously selected players. Just a small hunch though.
Pick #13, Western Bulldogs - Cody Weightman
As a Bulldogs supporter, I can safely say I'm much more in tune with my club's priorities than other clubs, and the two things the Bulldogs need more than anything are big key-defenders and crafty small forwards. With McAsey off the board, Weightman is clearly the best candidate. He's quick, he takes big marks, he can kick goals from 50 meters out; he's pretty much what Doggies supporters have been crying out for. With Dickson reaching the end of his career, the Bulldogs would have a natural heir to his role.
Pick #14 - Fremantle - Liam Henry
At this point, I think West Coast will make the bid having just lost Rioli, and Fremantle will match. As straight-forward as it gets.
Pick #15 - Hawthorn - Finn Maginness
West Coast have been shoring up their tall stocks through the draft the last few years but looking at their young midfielders, the talent looks a bit thin. No better time to bid on Hawthorn's father/son prospect, which will undoubtedly prompt Hawthorn to match.
Pick #16 - Port Adelaide - Jackson Mead
A hat-trick of matched bids. Nothing too much to say, other than that he's one of the many quality midfielders available in this pick range, and Port Adelaide would be expected to match.
Pick #17, West Coast - Trent Bianco
Somewhat of a bolter with his late season form. His future is very clearly in the midfield in my opinion, and with high production, high quality ball use, could be an ideal long-term replacement for Luke Shuey. West Coast historically do not shy away from taking young Victorian midfielders out of their home state.
Pick #18, Gold Coast - Will Gould
With the struggles the Gold Coast backline have been dealing with over the last few years, a player like Gould would definitely appeal to them. On top of being battle-hardened and ready to go, also fits the bill as a potential leader in defence, and understands what it takes to achieve on-field success, having done so for Glenelg this year.
Pick #19, Brisbane - Miles Bergman
Brisbane boast a pretty well-rounded that's as strong as it's ever been for 10 years, but with Zorko and Robinson turning 31 next year, it might be time to provide a bit more reinforcement to the midfield, and Bergman is probably who I'd rate as the next best available.
Pick #20, Geelong - Trent Rivers
I'm not going to lie; if I were a Geelong supporter, I'd be very concerned with the state of the list right now. They may have finished on top of the ladder, but looking at their contingent of players aged 18-23, it's like a barren wasteland, besides some gems like Parfitt. This is the toll they paid by trading so many first round picks for older, experienced players. They need just about everything besides maybe defenders, and a player like Rivers could potentially serve as the first building block for their midfield of the future. I could also see them strongly considering local Geelong Falcons product Cooper Stephens.
Pick #21, Richmond - Josh Worrell
Things are obviously looking nice for Richmond right now; their Premiership Window is gaping wide open, and it'll likely stay open for the next few years, but as far as the next generation of talent goes, Richmond haven't exactly helped themselves in the last 5-7 years. There's a bit of a dearth of genuine high quality talent aged 18-23 across the field, so with guys like Riewoldt, Rance, Cotchin, Martin & others in their late 20s/early 30s, now would be a good time to start bringing in a strong intake of young talent. Josh Worrell would be viewed as a long-term successor to Alex Rance, and with Astbury and Grimes also in their late 20s, now is a very good time for Richmond to start developing a quality young key-defender.
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