AFL 2020 - AFL Finals Week One (no aftertiming allowed)

Remove this Banner Ad

Chubberson

Club Legend
Apr 12, 2011
1,606
1,821
radelaide
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Based on what? They're easily the worst side to go a whole season on top, the second worst minor premier since 2005 (Freo 15'), playing a side which absolutley obliterated them about a month ago, then will come up against a side with a very good record against them at Adelaide Oval in the semis. Very good chance I think of them not winning a game, based on form and history.

Cats by a mile
Tigers by a mile
Dogs
Eagles by a mile.

Too easy, whatever that is, multi it up.
Not giving Port enuf credit here imo mate.
Im taking Port 1-39, Rich, West Coast -13.5. $7.90 boosted on sportsbet.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
812
500
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Tough finals week

Thought Geelong seemed to have changed up a lot for most of the year, but approaching finals they feel like they are going back to their old ways a bit, becoming a bit reliant on particular players.
Port are looking pretty good as they have all year.
50/50 really depends which Geelong turn up

Tigers should just win this, quality players back in, Brissy still just seem a bit immature of a side. Not sure they've learnt anything new this year that could get them over the line.

Saints could be the value of the round. Doggies are 1-6 Vs other top 8 teams, they are the type of team that looks amazing when they get on top of a side but can very quickly look ordinary if challenged. Saints also beat them earlier in the year.

Wc will depend on players in and weather. To early to call.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
46,276
53,777
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Tough finals week

Thought Geelong seemed to have changed up a lot for most of the year, but approaching finals they feel like they are going back to their old ways a bit, becoming a bit reliant on particular players.
Port are looking pretty good as they have all year.
50/50 really depends which Geelong turn up

Tigers should just win this, quality players back in, Brissy still just seem a bit immature of a side. Not sure they've learnt anything new this year that could get them over the line.

Saints could be the value of the round. Doggies are 1-6 Vs other top 8 teams, they are the type of team that looks amazing when they get on top of a side but can very quickly look ordinary if challenged. Saints also beat them earlier in the year.

Wc will depend on players in and weather. To early to call.
You will get a max capacity crowd for the Adelaide Oval game, whatever that capacity is I dont know. There is going to be massive home ground advantage on Thursday night for the Power game. The Prelim of the Crows v Cats, it was deafening. Genuinely felt it rattled the Cats players that night.

Ironically for a team that is Minor Premiers, they havent received any heat or external pressure from that, which I think will work in their favour on the night.
 

squeaky1000

Senior List
Apr 30, 2018
257
328
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Tough finals week

Thought Geelong seemed to have changed up a lot for most of the year, but approaching finals they feel like they are going back to their old ways a bit, becoming a bit reliant on particular players.
Port are looking pretty good as they have all year.
50/50 really depends which Geelong turn up

Tigers should just win this, quality players back in, Brissy still just seem a bit immature of a side. Not sure they've learnt anything new this year that could get them over the line.

Saints could be the value of the round. Doggies are 1-6 Vs other top 8 teams, they are the type of team that looks amazing when they get on top of a side but can very quickly look ordinary if challenged. Saints also beat them earlier in the year.

Wc will depend on players in and weather. To early to call.
Agree with pretty much all of this. Port Cats is a genuine 50/50 for mine, don't see how you can bet on either team with real assurance. Think Port are trustworthy enough now to know what you're gonna get from them but Cats were playing some of the best footy by any team this year only a few matches ago. If they bring the slow sloppy game style they've had the last couple of weeks Port should have their measure but I certainly wouldn't write them off

Tigers the bet of the round for mine, they just know how to get it done on the big stage and don't think Brisbane have been flying by any means the last month or so, they've been able to win a lot of games against average opponents without playing particularly good footy. Tigers clearly the team to beat once again

Don't understand the love for the dogs, game could go either way but I agree value is with the Saints. Dogs probably win the midfield battle but I seriously question whether they can put up a winning score with their forward line, huge reliance on their midfielders to hit the scoreboard. Saints are a lot more dangerous up forward and I don't buy for a second the "just happy to have made finals" mindset, they will be raring to win this.

Eagles hard to beat at home but all depends on who they get back, wouldn't be writing the Pies off just yet
 

Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,457
1,436
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Had a quick look at the 2+ goal markets on SB, like Robbie Gray $3.25, Dusty $4 and De Goey $2.25 SB.
im on board S.Powell Pepper again, Mostly for AGS. I think he's worth a shot at these odds.. He kicked a goal last game, & almost got 2. Odds havent changed much from last week either. Has kicked 3.5 in his last 6 games for port. Been listed at CHF or LHF for most games.
1.5u SPP ags @2.88 SB
0.6u SPP 2g+ @13 SB
0.2u SPP 3g+ @81 SB
 
Last edited:

Bazza97

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2016
3,840
3,846
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
im on board S.Powell Pepper again, Mostly for AGS. I think he's worth a shot at these odds.. He kicked a goal last game, & almost got 2. Odds havent changed much from last week either. Has kicked 3.5 in his last 6 games for port. Been listed at CHF or LHF for most games.
1.5u SPP ags @2.88 SB
0.6u SPP 2g+ @13 SB
0.2u SPP 3g+ @81 SB
That's fair, those are good odds. Think I'll be backing Rozee again for AGS $2.40 TAB. He's let me down the past couple of weeks getting opportunities and missing them but I'm a stubborn prick so I'm going to continue to back him lol. Dangerfield AGS $1.90 TAB is the other single AGS bet I'm looking at. Think my multi for the game will be Dixon AGS, Hawkins AGS & Gray AGS $2.10 SB. Would be very disappointed if that doesn't get up haha.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
46,276
53,777
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Dixon Hawkins Marshall Ablett

Cameron 2 Lynch 2 Reiwoldt

King Membrey Naughton Bruce

Kennedy 2 De goey

@170 sb
You may want to do that multi again without Naughton as SB will void your bet if Naughton is a late out.:think:

Youre the type of campaigner that will want to burn Sportsbet down if the rest of the legs get up. Dont worry, I would do the same. :$
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,975
1,369
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Agree with pretty much all of this. Port Cats is a genuine 50/50 for mine, don't see how you can bet on either team with real assurance. Think Port are trustworthy enough now to know what you're gonna get from them but Cats were playing some of the best footy by any team this year only a few matches ago. If they bring the slow sloppy game style they've had the last couple of weeks Port should have their measure but I certainly wouldn't write them off

Tigers the bet of the round for mine, they just know how to get it done on the big stage and don't think Brisbane have been flying by any means the last month or so, they've been able to win a lot of games against average opponents without playing particularly good footy. Tigers clearly the team to beat once again

Don't understand the love for the dogs, game could go either way but I agree value is with the Saints. Dogs probably win the midfield battle but I seriously question whether they can put up a winning score with their forward line, huge reliance on their midfielders to hit the scoreboard. Saints are a lot more dangerous up forward and I don't buy for a second the "just happy to have made finals" mindset, they will be raring to win this.

Eagles hard to beat at home but all depends on who they get back, wouldn't be writing the Pies off just yet
WB have had the highest rating for points scored since Naughton came back I think.

I'm certainly not sold on the StK forward line. They've been dropping off. King's doing nothing. Butlers still ok but fallen off a cliff compared to early and Membrey isn't taking games apart.

WB have a poor record against top teams and dismantle the weaker and average teams. Good news for me because i'm def. rating StK as average rather than good.
 

BloodRet

Norm Smith Medallist
Suspended
Sep 25, 2013
8,998
13,438
Laughing at all the minnows
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Norwich City, Detroit Pistons
You may want to do that multi again without Naughton as SB will void your bet if Naughton is a late out.:think:

Youre the type of campaigner that will want to burn Sportsbet down if the rest of the legs get up. Dont worry, I would do the same. :$
I mean yeah they can void it if they want to turn their headquarters into a ruins. Im surprised the campaigners havent banned me for the amount of abuse ive given them on live chat anyway
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
46,276
53,777
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I mean yeah they can void it if they want to turn their headquarters into a ruins. Im surprised the campaigners havent banned me for the amount of abuse ive given them on live chat anyway
You should be the poster child for what a new brand of terrorist would look like, White, Old, Politically Incorrect,Angry, Keyboard warrior, single, balding overweight degenerate gambler with access to vast amounts of money that wants to channel all of that onto fast trains and blow up books that dont pay up. :think:

Dont worry, Im no one to talk, its like looking into a mirror when I read your posts. :$
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
4,205
1,684
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
A bit of food for thought if betting on totals.

I looked closely into the Top 8 teams and when they played after 6pm for their totals and calculated for all top 8 teams playing each other.

The average was 116.3 for night games involving all Top 8 teams after 6pm. (I haven't included Round 1 data in these plots) Collingwood were involved in 2 of those totals being 72 and 76, if you take that out, the average for Top 8 teams against each other is 120.8 in night conditions after 6pm.I also compared it against the night games by venue involving all teams after 6pm- due to the limited data available.

Perth Stadium totals are lower because Freo played there most of the time at night. (Freo played a slower, possession style game) Adelaide Oval is the more predictable out of the 3 grounds-with a shorter range. The GABBA has the largest range of the 3 grounds. You would be getting value for you dollar if you think the score range of the GABBA is between 110-135, even at a price of around $2.00.

The lines for a couple of the night matches in Week 1 will be around 115.5-120.5 points. I fancy the highest scoring game, of the 3 night matches, will be Port Adelaide v Geelong.

Im also not sold Collingwood will come over to Perth and go attacking from start to end. They will have a slow phase somewhere in their scoring during the game. On form, they will probably start well early , possibly score well, then drift off.

The totals are not out yet, but weather will have a role to play of course in the setting of these totals. Reckon if there is a multi available for Under 130.5 for all 3 night games to be under 130.5 at around $2.50 that according to my models would be a decent bet. Very rarely are finals high scoring from start to end, with the shorter quarters, can see teams being a tad slow at stages.

1600785092353.png
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
4,205
1,684
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
This is the problem for Collingwood. 5 of their games in 2020, they start like a house on fire. All other 17 games, they can't maintain an average above 20 points a quarter for the rest of the match. I'd be a bit worried after quarter time, if they are trailing by 2 goals or more....don't think it would be wise to bet on them.

1600815397146.png


You be a brave man , if you think this Pies team can muster above 70 points a match. The worrying trend if they have a cluster of games, where they score under 15 points in the 1st quarter.

I also performed a paired t-test under the hypothesis that I think Collingwood underperform after quarter time in terms of scoring, but the p-value I calculated was 0.1837 (assuming a 5% level of significance), so there is not conclusive evidence that they underscore after quarter time. My hypothesis was "Collingwood slow down in scoring after quarter time due to fatigue and lack of concentration"
1600819159695.png


1600819117999.png



Also use this model to predict Port ports after quarter time:

1600820365251.png


The linear regression line predicts, if Port can kick 4 goals in the 1st quarter , they can average around 18.91 pts for the remaining quarters.

If Port can kick 3 goals in the 1st quarter, they can average around 17.49 pts for the remaining quarters.

Anyway I have to work out some more models before the Finals. Have a good day guys
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
7,668
16,119
AFL Club
St Kilda
This is the problem for Collingwood. 5 of their games in 2020, they start like a house on fire. All other 17 games, they can't maintain an average above 20 points a quarter for the rest of the match. I'd be a bit worried after quarter time, if they are trailing by 2 goals or more....don't think it would be wise to bet on them.

View attachment 968583

You be a brave man , if you think this Pies team can muster above 70 points a match. The worrying trend if they have a cluster of games, where they score under 15 points in the 1st quarter.

I also performed a paired t-test under the hypothesis that I think Collingwood underperform after quarter time in terms of scoring, but the p-value I calculated was 0.1837 (assuming a 5% level of significance), so there is not conclusive evidence that they underscore after quarter time. My hypothesis was "Collingwood slow down in scoring after quarter time due to fatigue and lack of concentration"
View attachment 968617

View attachment 968616


Also use this model to predict Port ports after quarter time:

View attachment 968628

The linear regression line predicts, if Port can kick 4 goals in the 1st quarter , they can average around 18.91 pts for the remaining quarters.

If Port can kick 3 goals in the 1st quarter, they can average around 17.49 pts for the remaining quarters.

Anyway I have to work out some more models before the Finals. Have a good day guys
Interesting.
But as always when looking at such things, it's important to distinguish "information/data" from "knowledge/insight"

Information can certainly lead to insight- but they aren't one and the same.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,975
1,369
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
A bit of food for thought if betting on totals.

I looked closely into the Top 8 teams and when they played after 6pm for their totals and calculated for all top 8 teams playing each other.

The average was 116.3 for night games involving all Top 8 teams after 6pm. (I haven't included Round 1 data in these plots) Collingwood were involved in 2 of those totals being 72 and 76, if you take that out, the average for Top 8 teams against each other is 120.8 in night conditions after 6pm.I also compared it against the night games by venue involving all teams after 6pm- due to the limited data available.

Perth Stadium totals are lower because Freo played there most of the time at night. (Freo played a slower, possession style game) Adelaide Oval is the more predictable out of the 3 grounds-with a shorter range. The GABBA has the largest range of the 3 grounds. You would be getting value for you dollar if you think the score range of the GABBA is between 110-135, even at a price of around $2.00.

The lines for a couple of the night matches in Week 1 will be around 115.5-120.5 points. I fancy the highest scoring game, of the 3 night matches, will be Port Adelaide v Geelong.

Im also not sold Collingwood will come over to Perth and go attacking from start to end. They will have a slow phase somewhere in their scoring during the game. On form, they will probably start well early , possibly score well, then drift off.

The totals are not out yet, but weather will have a role to play of course in the setting of these totals. Reckon if there is a multi available for Under 130.5 for all 3 night games to be under 130.5 at around $2.50 that according to my models would be a decent bet. Very rarely are finals high scoring from start to end, with the shorter quarters, can see teams being a tad slow at stages.

View attachment 968473
Just a bit of advice for you. You seem to have an aptitude for maths and research and so on but you are spreading it extremely thinly across totals, goal kickers, the weather and heaps of other markets. I reckon you would be better off finding a niche market and focusing most of your time there and mastering that rather than trying to statistically analyse virtually every market. Sniper rifle instead of shotgun :)
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
46,276
53,777
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Gutless coward books, wont even produce a TOTALS market and its Wednesday evening.

Seriously. 4 games in total for Week 1 and yet you have time to f**k up odds with GF exacta's. Something that is a lot simpler to pump out given you have done it for years and years.

Bunch of campaigners.




NonPhixion
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,039
5,128
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Gutless coward books, wont even produce a TOTALS market and its Wednesday evening.

Seriously. 4 games in total for Week 1 and yet you have time to f**k up odds with GF exacta's. Something that is a lot simpler to pump out given you have done it for years and years.

Bunch of campaigners.




NonPhixion
Don’t get me started. I could dish out a speech that Hitler would be jealous of
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
46,276
53,777
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Don’t get me started. I could dish out a speech that Hitler would be jealous of
FFS, if they are that clueless, just put out a 125pt total for Game 1, the early movement alone will tell you if you got it right. If it feels off, close it down.

The irony is that these campaigners limit you from placing large bets in the first place, so its not like they dont have a protective mechanism in place to prevent someone smashing a line once its out.

The number of times, I have to wait for the "Trader" to allow a bet to go through, already f**ks me off.

I also feel like its sometimes bullshit when you hear some punters who place $200k on a result. I mean I could barely get $2 on bloody Lyons having the most disposals this finals series.:drunk:
 

burge13

Club Legend
Suspended
Jan 25, 2019
2,894
4,256
AFL Club
Adelaide
I also feel like its sometimes bullshit when you hear some punters who place $200k on a result. I mean I could barely get $2 on bloody Lyons having the most disposals this finals series.:drunk:
Yeah i dont believe these tweets/stories of people getting 6 figures down, even on popular sports. None of these campaigners accept 200 most of the time
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Top Bottom