2020 Trade & List Management discussion

[Thetrader15]

In a hear beat. Maybe throw them our second to even it out.

It's happening...

no it's not

 

[Peter Doherty]

Bulldogs are a likely target, their first for a couple of later picks that give them significantly more points to use matching a very high bid for Ugle-Hagan.

Something like this?

Based on current points, for Bulldogs to match a bid at pick 1 they would use picks 7, 38 and 44 with 71 points surplus, which would give them pick 67 back.

Bulldogs then have picks 1, 67, 81.

Hypothetically Atkins gets us an end of 2nd round compo (38).

We trade 21, 27, 38 for Bulldogs pick 8.

Bulldogs then can match a pick 1 bid with 21, 27 and 38 with 92 points surplus so they get 72 back.

Bulldogs then have 1, 45, 72.

 

[1990crow]

I wonder if we’ll have a crack and trade some 2021 picks.

Reckon every other club would want to do a future trade deal with us right now.

I would trade a future second if it helped upgrade one of the picks we get for Laird, Atkins and M.Crouch into the top 10.

It would be madness to trade a future first given we are odds on to finish last next year the way our list is going.
And there will be elite mids at the top end of next year's draft that we simply cannot give away for a bag of beans this year.

 

[Peter Doherty]

I factored in Bulldogs matching pick 1 and all the picks going down one in my scenario, but didn't factor in the removal of the picks they use to match a bid.

So in my scenario because they use picks 21, 27 and 38 to match, all those 3 picks are removed from the draft, so pick 22 becomes 21, what was 28 becomes 26 and what was 38 becomes 35?

If Bulldogs don't do the trade they have 1, 64 and 78.

If Bulldogs do the trade they then have 1, 42 and 69.

Is this right?

 

[conVINCEd]

Will Brodie has signed a long-term deal with the Suns but given he’s been squeezed out of their starting side I’m keen. Reckon he has some serious ability.

 

[Mego Red]

Swans with an almost guaranteed pick 2 (no Kennedy or Heeney now) will be looking to take the best mid with that pick before having to match Campbell who is likely to be a pick 10-15 range player. No hope of getting their pick.

Bulldogs are a likely target, their first for a couple of later picks that give them significantly more points to use matching a very high bid for Ugle-Hagan.

Campbell will go earlier than that. 6 to 10.

But yeah - they now are in a good spot for not needing to trade down. Things would need to vastly improve for them.

 

[Mego Red]

Rankine is more likely to play for the Thunderbirds than he is to play for the Crows. Pipe dream.

Yeah, no s**t.

Why is this even commented on?

Forget any garbage that's in the media for the next two years about us.

 

[Mego Red]

In a hear beat. Maybe throw them our second to even it out.

It's happening...

Can we stop

 

[Sidthehat]

Think Caldwell will have other suitors but wonder if O'Halloran is gettable from Giants. You'd hope Nicks has a good relationship with him and he is down the pecking order to get games this year.

 

[Mego Red]

Think Caldwell will have other suitors but wonder if O'Halloran is gettable from Giants. You'd hope Nicks has a good relationship with him and he is down the pecking order to get games this year.

Yeah, very gettable you'd think.

Mutineer - do you have much memory of O'Halloran? I know he was a good leader, and maybe more of a forward/mid? Injured a bit last year, I think.

 

[Mego Red]

I do think, at this point in our history, we need to shrug off being a nice guy and we need to use the pre-season deraft as an option.

We've never been this low, and we don't have the luxury of being nice guys about things.

 

[Betts are off]

Bit of a left field name to throw out there, but how locked in is Jack Viney to the Demons? I only ask because he's a RFA this year, and that Melbourne Midfield is pretty stacked (and Patracca seems to have taken the clear mantle of #1 Midfielder).

If my memory serves me he was looking to become a genuine star a few years back, but seems to have plateau'd a bit in terms of that trajectory. I seem to remember he dealt with injury a few years back too right? Would he be the kind of player that could take a big step forward at a new club? And would his playing style be an asset for us?

Genuine question, i've not watched a lot of him lately (cause I kinda hate the Demons) so not really sure what his playing style is like.

 

[adelcrows]

I factored in Bulldogs matching pick 1 and all the picks going down one in my scenario, but didn't factor in the removal of the picks they use to match a bid.

So in my scenario because they use picks 21, 27 and 38 to match, all those 3 picks are removed from the draft, so pick 22 becomes 21, what was 28 becomes 26 and what was 38 becomes 35?

If Bulldogs don't do the trade they have 1, 64 and 78.

If Bulldogs do the trade they then have 1, 42 and 69.

Is this right?

What is the Dogs end result if we DON'T bid on Ugle? Could be the sweetener they need for the deal, saying we know who we want for a pick 1 and it isn't UGLE or something, won't work if we get Pick 2 for Compo as we would certainly be bidding on UGLE or we don't they would take it then.... Not sure how that works etc with tampering but who knows, we could be stupid and put it in writing too..



Our absolute dream result and IDEAL scenario for this end of season would be:
Pick 1 (As we have that wrapped up)
Pick 2 (Compo for Brad Crouch to whoever offers him most cash and he goes to)
Pick 3 (Priority Pick - We are in a worse position than the Suns were when they got theirs last year, its a genuine question to ask, if we got one no doubt it would be end of 1st round only anyway)
Pick 8-14 or thereabouts from Dogs for Trade above that Pete Mentioned
Pick 9-15 or thereabouts for GWS First - Moves back too with our other picks above and bids matched etc
Pick 20- 25 or thereabouts based on our second rounder after RFA and matched Bids
Other picks from player trades etc.. Take the 6 picks and use others for Future upgrades or something?

Thats a fair chunk of rebuild done in 1 year.. That gives us Thilthorpe and likely 2 really good mids and then the other picks for best available players.

 

[Mutineer]

Yeah, very gettable you'd think.

Mutineer - do you have much memory of O'Halloran? I know he was a good leader, and maybe more of a forward/mid? Injured a bit last year, I think.

Had him inside my top 20 from memory, very high footy I.Q., Captained Vic Metro, very balanced midfielder with excellent speed and skills and also quite capable up forward....was certainly a player I would liked to have drafted.

Found it

1 – Jack Lukosius [Athletic KPF/Utility]

2 – Nick Blakey [Tall Mid/Utility]

3 – Bailey Smith [Speedy inside/outside mid/running defender]

4 – Sam Walsh [inside/outside mid]

5 – Izak Rankine [electric small forward]

6 – Jye Caldwell [inside bull/outside mid]

7 – Connor Rozee [ mid/utility]

8 – Max King [KPF]

9 – Chayce Jones [inside/outside mid/utility]

10 – Ben King [KPD]

11 – Riley Collier-Dawkins [Tall Inside/outside mid/forward]

12 – Xavier O’Halloran [athletic inside/outside mid/forward]

13 – Jackson Hately [Tall inside/outside mid/forward]

14 – Xavier Duursma inside/outside mid/utility]

15 – Jordan Clark [Running back/outside mid]

16 – Bailey Williams [Athletic Ruck/Forward]

17 – Sam Sturt [Clever medium forward]

18 – Tom Berry [Athletic inside/outside mid/forward]

19 – Tarryn Thomas [Athletic inside/outside mid/forward]

20 – Ned McHenry [small inside/outside mid/utility]



Others I rate I wouldn’t have a problem if we went early on.

Jack Ross [Inside bull], Jack Bytel [Inside bull], Liam Stocker [Inside mid], Will Kelly [Athletic KPP], Zac Butters [Small outside mid/forward], Ely Smith[Athletic inside mid], Tom Sparrow [Inside mid], Tom McKenzie [Speedy outside mid/defender, Kieran Briggs [Ruckman].



Some I quite like with later/rookie picks that I think have AFL traits if we happen to go that way.

Kyle Reid [KPD], Stefan Radovanovic [Running defender], Charlie Sprague [ Classy Medium Forward], Charlie Wilson [Smart medium forward], Noah Gown [KPF], Daly Andrews [speedy outside mid], Tom Lewis [Inside bull], Ben Jarvis [X Factor Forward], Hayden Sampson [small utility], Boyd Woodcock [small mid/forward], Allistair Richards [Speedy outside mid], Zane Keighran [medium utility], Jordan Butts [KPP], Matty Lloyd [outside mid/running defender].

 

[slice]

Perryman is OOC. I'd love to get him. Hard, good decision maker and can play a lot of roles.

 

[Mutineer]

Perryman is OOC. I'd love to get him. Hard, good decision maker and can play a lot of roles.

I think a lot of clubs would like to get Perryman and we did bid on him remember.....but he's a local lad that came through their Academy and the way he's going this season I can't see them letting him go elsewhere.

 

[GrommoT]

What is the Dogs end result if we DON'T bid on Ugle? Could be the sweetener they need for the deal, saying we know who we want for a pick 1 and it isn't UGLE or something, ...

Reckon it's very unlikely we'll have any sort of sweetheart deal with WB.

Unless they have pick 2 or so, other clubs would sure as heck bid on Ugle if we don't. To get pick 2 or so, they'd have to either finish near bottom (not going to happen) or trade with some other club to get there so they'd likely not have the draft goodies anymore to give us to get us to not bid on Ugle.

 

[Vader]

Reckon it's very unlikely we'll have any sort of sweetheart deal with WB.

Unless they have pick 2 or so, other clubs would sure as heck bid on Ugle if we don't. To get pick 2 or so, they'd have to either finish near bottom (not going to happen) or trade with some other club to get there so they'd likely not have the draft goodies anymore to give us to get us to not bid on Ugle.

If we don't bid on TUH at pick #1, then they only have to come up with the points to match a bid at pick #2.

At pick #1, they need to come up with 2400 pts. At pick #2, they only need 2014. This is where the sweetheart deal comes in - effectively we have an additional 400pts on our side of the trade deal.

 

[GrommoT]

If we don't bid on TUH at pick #1, then they only have to come up with the points to match a bid at pick #2.

At pick #1, they need to come up with 2400 pts. At pick #2, they only need 2014. This is where the sweetheart deal comes in - effectively we have an additional 400pts on our side of the trade deal.

I think maybe my reasoning is a bit inconsistent. I took it we're not going to by pass bidding on Ugle but that would mean we wouldn't do a sweetheart deal with them anyway.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Heck, I wouldn't even worry about the salt on that one. He just saying "oh Adelaide can offer enough money to lure him". That's probably a true statement, all things considering.

Didn't GC extend his contract last year?

 

[Joey JoJo Jr Shabadoo]

This is potentially going to be the toughest off season for list management ever. With the likelihood of list sizes being cut and salary cap being reduced, clubs are going to be forced to get rid of players they would have liked to keep (both contracted and out of contract).

We’re in a better position than most as we don’t have the same level of talent to try and retain and also have salary cap space available. Not to mention our abundance of currency in this years draft. This gives us a bit of leverage in negotiations and can take advantage of some of the clubs who are backed into a corner.

The question is, who would you target?

 

[Golumless]

This is potentially going to be the toughest off season for list management ever. With the likelihood of list sizes being cut and salary cap being reduced, clubs are going to be forced to get rid of players they would have liked to keep (both contracted and out of contract).

We’re in a better position than most as we don’t have the same level of talent to try and retain and also have salary cap space available. Not to mention our abundance of currency in this years draft. This gives us a bit of leverage in negotiations and can take advantage of some of the clubs who are backed into a corner.

The question is, who would you target?

It's very unlikely list sizes will be cut. I'd also be surprised if salary cap gets slashed as well, though, I suspect the AFL will freeze the 2% increase until the end of the current CBA.

 

[Dangerousfield]

What is the Dogs end result if we DON'T bid on Ugle? Could be the sweetener they need for the deal, saying we know who we want for a pick 1 and it isn't UGLE or something, won't work if we get Pick 2 for Compo as we would certainly be bidding on UGLE or we don't they would take it then.... Not sure how that works etc with tampering but who knows, we could be stupid and put it in writing too..



Our absolute dream result and IDEAL scenario for this end of season would be:
Pick 1 (As we have that wrapped up)
Pick 2 (Compo for Brad Crouch to whoever offers him most cash and he goes to)
Pick 3 (Priority Pick - We are in a worse position than the Suns were when they got theirs last year, its a genuine question to ask, if we got one no doubt it would be end of 1st round only anyway)
Pick 8-14 or thereabouts from Dogs for Trade above that Pete Mentioned
Pick 9-15 or thereabouts for GWS First - Moves back too with our other picks above and bids matched etc
Pick 20- 25 or thereabouts based on our second rounder after RFA and matched Bids
Other picks from player trades etc.. Take the 6 picks and use others for Future upgrades or something?

Thats a fair chunk of rebuild done in 1 year.. That gives us Thilthorpe and likely 2 really good mids and then the other picks for best available players.

Can we please stop talk of a Priority Pick, it does not happen any more, Gold Coast was a one off package to remedy the failings of the AFL in setting them up.

Brad Crouch who we constantly bag on here is not getting Band 1, other clubs are not stupid, did you know they actually watch our games and see what we see? No club is giving him sufficient $ and years to fall into Band 1.

People have very inflated ideas on what players like Atkins and Laird are worth. You need to scrutinise trades and compo over the last say three years to see we aren't getting much for them.

Can we also stop talking about sweetheart deals with WB to not bid on Ugle-Hagan, the AFL watch all these things very closely, any sniff of dodgy dealings and you end up with sanctions - yet again!

 

[Joey JoJo Jr Shabadoo]

It's very unlikely list sizes will be cut. I'd also be surprised if salary cap gets slashed as well, though, I suspect the AFL will freeze the 2% increase until the end of the current CBA.

I certainly hope so. It’s looking like the season should go the distance and the AFLPA will aggressively fight any changes to list size so you might be right. However, the AFL hierarchy are incredibly arrogant and seem to do whatever they want irrespective of where the clubs sit.

 

[Apsaalooke]

Can we also stop talking about sweetheart deals with WB to not bid on Ugle-Hagan, the AFL watch all these things very closely, any sniff of dodgy dealings and you end up with sanctions - yet again!

The rest of the deal has to stack up, but not bidding on a player is the last 'dodgy' deal clubs can still get away with. Not even the AFL can sanction a club for not selecting a player or, even more so, not bidding on another club's player.