List Mgmt. 2020 Young Talent time

[Heart Of Purple]

I know what you are saying - in some sense I can see an argument to pick up both Walkers and let Western go out to the market, but I just think it is going to be a case of where we stand after the season has finished, any trades are made and we see what befalls with various positions.

Westerns a freak. Can’t see any reason to pick either of the others, yet alone both before him. He’s quick (lightning quick), classy, works hard defensively and finds the ball.


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[Ysaye]

Westerns a freak. Can’t see any reason to pick either of the others, yet alone both before him. He’s quick (lightning quick), classy, works hard defensively and finds the ball.


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Both Walkers are also quick (not as quick as Western but will fast enough to be a problem to many AFL players) and they are also a proper AFL size (183cm+), better in the air, better by foot and are more versatile in terms of positions. Brandon also has really good football sense and knows where to go to intercept across the half back.

 

[CapitalA]

Why are we even talking about it. Surely B.Walker and Western will be picked up in the draft and C.Walker and or Alvarez/Haddow goto cat b right?

 

[theGav56]

For top 10 picks you should take best available irrespective of position I reckon.

yet every year that doesn't seem to happen.

 

[nurries]

yet every year that doesn't seem to happen.

We did last year. We have heaps of HBF yet we pick up one with our first pick.

why? Because he is a jet and an upgrade on what we already have.

 

[Ysaye]

Why are we even talking about it. Surely B.Walker and Western will be picked up in the draft and C.Walker and or Alvarez/Haddow goto cat b right?

I believe we are talking about it because:
(1) There are question marks over whether Cat B rookies will still exist once the AFL have made the changes to the list sizes and rules for next year;
(2) The overall sizes of the lists; and
(3) The fact that currently we only have a 1st and 2nd round pick before the 5th round (3rd and 4th round picks were traded away).

There is just less room for sentiment-influenced speculative decisions like another Dillon O'Reilly pickup.

 

[Docker82]

I understand what your saying.

DBG or McDonald should go in the top three picks.

If one of them is available at our pick 7 most likely, you just need to pick best player available.

Remember, Grundy fell to pick 18 because everybody didn’t need a ruck.

Grundy was also best 22 after 12 months...

 

[theGav56]

We did last year. We have heaps of HBF yet we pick up one with our first pick.

why? Because he is a jet and an upgrade on what we already have.

And several other clubs passed on him despite him universally being rated higher pre-draft.
Meanwhile, Melbourne take Pickett because he fits a need.

Reality is that best available is speculation.

 

[Dockeroo]

I believe we are talking about it because:
(1) There are question marks over whether Cat B rookies will still exist once the AFL have made the changes to the list sizes and rules for next year;
(2) The overall sizes of the lists; and
(3) The fact that currently we only have a 1st and 2nd round pick before the 5th round (3rd and 4th round picks were traded away).

There is just less room for sentiment-influenced speculative decisions like another Dillon O'Reilly pickup.

The dillon o Reilly selection is probably the worst drafting decision we made in the last 5 years. I simply cannot fathom what we were thinking with that one.
And yes you are correct in saying that list spots are extremely valuable and limited. Hence the intense debate about Chris Walker and Haddow and Alvarez. It could well come Down to a decision between Pina/Dixon/ Thomas and this years crop. We can’t have them all, that much is certain.
But if B Walker and Western are indeed genuine top 30 or 40 prospects we have to find a place for them, full stop.

 

[nurries]

And several other clubs passed on him despite him universally being rated higher pre-draft.
Meanwhile, Melbourne take Pickett because he fits a need.

Reality is that best available is speculation.

I would thought best available is a safer bet than drafting purely for need. Especially first round. Anything beyond first round you can be a bit more selective but you want the best players in your side, worse case is that they are better bargaining chips if you need to offload ala GWS drafting a shitload of KPF before offloading for good value

 

[Scham]

Picking the best available is always the safest bet. It’s crazy to think that you have the opportunity to pick who your recruiters have identified as the best available only to then pick a lesser quality player.

 

[Dockeroo]

I would thought best available is a safer bet than drafting purely for need. Especially first round. Anything beyond first round you can be a bit more selective but you want the best players in your side, worse case is that they are better bargaining chips if you need to offload ala GWS drafting a shitload of KPF before offloading for good value

Agree with this. The GWS point is a good one. In 2018 they had one of the most stacked midfields in the comp. but still they took Caldwell and Hately and even last year added green.
They will still get good value for these guys if they are traded out in future.
It worth looking back 8 years and more at drafts to see where drafting for needs gets you. Lachlan Hansen instead of trav boak and Mitch thorp instead of Joel Selwood. Just some of the many examples.
Plenty of others too.

 

[Scham]

McCartin over Petracca.

 

[theGav56]

I would thought best available is a safer bet than drafting purely for need. Especially first round. Anything beyond first round you can be a bit more selective but you want the best players in your side, worse case is that they are better bargaining chips if you need to offload ala GWS drafting a shitload of KPF before offloading for good value

They really aren’t the only two options are they? And I am not a believer in the idea that young guys in the draft have some sort of fixed best available ranking. I prefer the idea of best value, which combines where a club ranks a draft prospect and factors in the club needs. There really is no point drafting a player like Thilthorpe if you’re well stocked with forwards and rucks but lack the midfielders to get it into the forward line. If you are stocked with inside mids but have no forward marking targets, don’t choose the inside mid. It is exactly the dilemma we may face with DGB.

 

[theGav56]

Picking the best available is always the safest bet. It’s crazy to think that you have the opportunity to pick who your recruiters have identified as the best available only to then pick a lesser quality player.

And yet recruiters do it every year.

 

[Heart Of Purple]

Both Walkers are also quick (not as quick as Western but will fast enough to be a problem to many AFL players) and they are also a proper AFL size (183cm+), better in the air, better by foot and are more versatile in terms of positions. Brandon also has really good football sense and knows where to go to intercept across the half back.

I just find the whole size obsession problematic in the industry. Serong's not big, neither is Walters. If either of them had the speed of Western to impact on the spread from the contest they'd be adding a real plus to their resume. Western offers something we really don't have a lot of - that spread from the contest. I have nothing against the Walker boys and see them both as good prospects, but If i had to pick one it'd be Western all day every day.

 

[theGav56]

I just find the whole size obsession problematic in the industry. Serong's not big, neither is Walters. If either of them had the speed of Western to impact on the spread from the contest they'd be adding a real plus to their resume. Western offers something we really don't have a lot of - that spread from the contest. I have nothing against the Walker boys and see them both as good prospects, but If i had to pick one it'd be Western all day every day.

Just to pivot on this, I think you are identifying one of the problems with the concept of best available. One provides speed and spread, another provides size and power. Perhaps recruiters have a squiggle chart that calculates which player is ranked ahead and another recruiter has their very own metrics and a different set of squiggles. A game plan that requires speed and spread is going to rank players differently from a game plan that values other factors.

 

[Bender571]

I noticed in Twomey's recent ranking he had Errol Gulden at 15. He's part of Sydney's academy listed as 171cm with a similar write up to Western. Do any of the draft watchers know why Western is expected to be drafted later due to height, but Gulden isn't?

 

[wayToGo_]

This convo is weird. We need speed on the outside - we'll be taking both. One is a half back. One is a mid/forward. It'd be pretty weird if we let them go after JLo came out publicly and said we needed more speed on the outside. They are two of the best prospects in the pool that fit that description and we have discounted first access to them.

 

[Dockeroo]

This convo is weird. We need speed on the outside - we'll be taking both. One is a half back. One is a mid/forward. It'd be pretty weird if we let them go after JLo came out publicly and said we needed more speed on the outside. They are two of the best prospects in the pool that fit that description and we have discounted first access to them.

I think there is no doubt we will be taking both. Regardless of the debate on best available/best value etc, I feel like the current makeup of the list should influence about 10% of the total decision on which player to take. When you select a top 10 pick, you make an investment that you hope will be paid back over 10-12 years. We probably didn’t take Brodie Grundy in 2012 because we had Sandi. In hindsight that was bloody stupid.
I do think top rated midfielders in a typical draft crop are “safer bets” than KPP. So maybe the safe bet this time is O’Driscoll or Bruhn etc. Is O’Driscoll an explosive player with good speed?

 

[Docker82]

McCartin over Petracca.

Petracca is a mid/forward - the sort of player you will always find space in the best 22 for. It’s a good example of when best available was the best strategy.

Drafting a KPD when you’ve got four AFL standard ones (seriously does any other club in the league?) just isn’t the same.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - If DBG was from Victoria no one this board would be talking about him. There’s plenty of Victorian who seem to similarly rated but aren’t spoken about on this board because they aren’t local. I don’t know how many years our club needs to demonstrate they don’t give a **** where a player is from for our supporters to give up on it.

 

[Dockeroo]

Petracca is a mid/forward - the sort of player you will always find space in the best 22 for. It’s a good example of when best available was the best available is a good strategy.

Drafting a KPD when you’ve got four AFL standard ones (seriously does any other club in the league?) just isn’t the same.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - If DBG was from Victoria no one this board would be talking about him. There’s plenty of Victorian who seem to similarly rated but aren’t spoken about on this board because they aren’t local. I don’t know how many years our club needs to demonstrate they don’t give a **** where a player is from for our supporters to give up on it.

To be fair I think DBG is rated higher than pretty much every Victorian apart from JUH and maybe Hollands (who has a big question mark over his injuries). Several recruiters are saying he’s a potential number 1-3 pick.

 

[Docker82]

I think there is no doubt we will be taking both. Regardless of the debate on best available/best value etc, I feel like the current makeup of the list should influence about 10% of the total decision on which player to take. When you select a top 10 pick, you make an investment that you hope will be paid back over 10-12 years. We probably didn’t take Brodie Grundy in 2012 because we had Sandi. In hindsight that was bloody stupid.
I do think top rated midfielders in a typical draft crop are “safer bets” than KPP. So maybe the safe bet this time is O’Driscoll or Bruhn etc. Is O’Driscoll an explosive player with good speed?

Simpson was just as talented as Grundy, if not more so. We ****ed our character assessment. That is all. Both could’ve been considered best available selections at the time.

We needed KPPs at either end desperately at that point but none were worthy of our first rounder. You can guarantee they’ll be midfielders worthy of pick 9 just because there’s so many more of them in each draft.

 

[Joao]

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - If DBG was from Victoria no one this board would be talking about him. There’s plenty of Victorian who seem to similarly rated but aren’t spoken about on this board because they aren’t local. I don’t know how many years our club needs to demonstrate they don’t give a **** where a player is from for our supporters to give up on it.

Dude, I literally make this point every year (except 2018 coz I really liked Hill) and nothing ever changes. Next year it will happen again.

Try and do what I can't and make peace with it.

 

[Dockeroo]

Simpson was just as talented as Grundy, if not more so. We ****ed our character assessment. That is all. Both could’ve been considered best available selections at the time.

We needed KPPs at either end desperately at that point but none were worthy of our first rounder. You can guarantee they’ll be midfielders worthy of pick 9 just because there’s so many more of them in each draft.

It was a rubbish draft anyway. Grundy was the last decent player picked till Dane Rampe in the rookie draft. And Tabs funnily enough.