Analysis 2021 trade thread

[briztoon]

Oliver was a massively risky pick at the time. In hindsight it was the right pick but he'd basically exploded in the second half of the TAC Cup season with little form prior and often you'll see those guys flame out rather than keep alight.

Yup. Oliver was a big, (like really BIG) round kid. Missing selection in the U18 Championships drove him on to lose a lot of weight, and he really came from way back to dominate the TAC cup. Even still, he lost a lot more weight in his first preseason at Melbourne.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Bit of difference in pick 4 and pick 20, or thereabouts. Mind you Melbourne reached for Petracca and Jackson too.

Point is, picking players who have a rapid rate of development in their draft year might be a strategy, but there's no evidence to say it's better than selecting based on consistent display as a junior.

Anyway, this is the trade thread, so....

 

[briztoon]

with picks I do wonder as said with smaller lists will you go for developing pick.
Or get players who can slot in more quickly.

Can see a lot of Vic kids left to hope they can play overage next year
a lot might just not carry on as well after 2 years of hardly any games
The late bloomers never got a chance

Remember it’s an U19 competition now, though the draft age is still 18.

 

[BangyBangy]

I think we need a mature ruck/forward who can play while Hippy off

Look at the other top 8 teams only GWS seem to play one a lot of the time although have Briggs and Flynn who played with Mummy.

Demons Gawn/Jackson
Dogs Martin/English or Young/English
Cats Stanley/Hawkins/Ratulogoa and Blicavs
Port Lycett/Ladhams
Swans Hickey/McClean
Essendon Draper/Wright

Edit looking at stats for the year
Fullarton avg 3.5.. 42 hitouts from 12 games best 8,6,6,4,4,4
Joe 49 hitouts 9,6,6,5,4
Luke Jackson avg 10.4 and worst he did playing second fiddle to gawn was 5 hitouts in a match
Hawkins avg 3.7 playing forward.

I don't quite get the notion of why we need a mature ruck / forward until Hipwood gets back.

I don't recall Hipwood rucking much.

We are going to be very tight for spots as is. I certainly wouldn't want to be using one for a short term fix.

Who do you think is out there that genuinely presents as a clearly superior option to Fullarton for next year?

Of the teams above that you have posted, I'd only really consider Gawn / Jackson and Lycett / Ladhams as superior to our ruck setup of Big O & whoever he's paired with. Would love to get someone like Ladhams to our club, was thinking that last year too. Not easy to attract a second string ruck from another club to move to your club to once again be a second string ruck though is it?

Very easy to see the grass being greener. Not sure it is.

 

[briztoon]

See: Ely Smith.

From the draft watchers, Ely Smith was always considered a second half of the second round prospect, in the early to mid 30’s.

 

[briztoon]

Hipwood coming back and having any significant impact in 2022 is a long shot imo and we should be prepared for that.

I agree, but it’s not a popular notion around here.

 

[martinson]

Petracca wasn’t a reach. He was very much considered the top talent in the draft.

Jackson wasn’t considered a reach either. He was runner up in the U18 championships Larke medal, coming second by 1 point to Deven Robertson. The big discussion was, would a team be brave enough to select an undersized ruck so high.

Just on Petracca I haven't seen a player come along like him in a long time. The guy has something really special and you could build a team around his impact if he stays fit and well.

And he was drafted in 2014.

So sometimes it takes time.

 

[briztoon]

Point is, picking players who have a rapid rate of development in their draft year might be a strategy, but there's no evidence to say it's better than selecting based on consistent display as a junior.

Anyway, this is the trade thread, so....

Ummm, I believe there’s a lot of research being done by club recruiting departments on rate of improvement.

Of course there are a lot of other factors that combine with rate of improvement. A players biometrics and athletic traits, growth rate/spurt, birth month, if a kid has come from a multi sport background and is now focusing solely on football, etc.

There’s a lot of research done in the States on this topic, of course they’re looking at other sports, but the principals would be the same.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Petracca is a bit of a late bloomer hopefully Rayner is the same

Poor Saints must be ruing taking McCartin at pick 1

 

[BangyBangy]

Petracca is a bit of a late bloomer hopefully Rayner is the same

Poor Saints must be ruing taking McCartin at pick 1

Poor saints my arse.

Billy Longer trade..... Just like the rest of the pile on teams, were more than happy to feed off us when we were at our lowest.

Never forget. Never forgive.

 

[martinson]

Ummm, I believe there’s a lot of research being done by club recruiting departments on rate of improvement.

Of course there are a lot of other factors that combine with rate of improvement. A players biometrics and athletic traits, growth rate/spurt, birth month, if a kid has come from a multi sport background and is now focusing solely on football, etc.

There’s a lot of research done in the States on this topic, of course they’re looking at other sports, but the principals would be the same.

It's been my experience in some sports and business endeavours I follow , that the ones to really watch are those who improve rapidly, sometimes out of nowhere ,and are improving at a much faster rate than their contemporaries.

I don't have much idea about AFL draftees but when it was pointed out that Oliver came out of nowhere and had made rapid improvement to me ,probably naively, that would be a reason to draft him. So I'd be interested to know if that factor generally doesn't result in the ability to keep getting better.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Poor saints my arse.

Billy Longer trade..... Just like the rest of the pile on teams, were more than happy to feed off us when we were at our lowest.

Never forget. Never forgive.

What did we get for Longer?

 

[BuntonRules]

What did we get for Longer?

More than he was worth.

 

[Nunez]

What did we get for Longer?

Did you know the Hawks tried to trade in Longer from the Saints, however the Saints wanted to keep Longer and offered McEvoy. How crazy is that

 

[Scubaveg]

You sure? Which player has won more centre clearances?

Which can run more then 5 mins without blowing up?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[bungalow_bill]

Did you know the Hawks tried to trade in Longer from the Saints, however the Saints wanted to keep Longer and offered McEvoy. How crazy is that

Hawks dodged a bullet

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Did you know the Hawks tried to trade in Longer from the Saints, however the Saints wanted to keep Longer and offered McEvoy. How crazy is that

 

[BangyBangy]

More than he was worth.

Perhaps in hindsight. But not at the time.

In hindsight they would've left him with us.

 

[davemc_lions]

I don't quite get the notion of why we need a mature ruck / forward until Hipwood gets back.

I don't recall Hipwood rucking much.

We are going to be very tight for spots as is. I certainly wouldn't want to be using one for a short term fix.

Who do you think is out there that genuinely presents as a clearly superior option to Fullarton for next year?

Of the teams above that you have posted, I'd only really consider Gawn / Jackson and Lycett / Ladhams as superior to our ruck setup of Big O & whoever he's paired with. Would love to get someone like Ladhams to our club, was thinking that last year too. Not easy to attract a second string ruck from another club to move to your club to once again be a second string ruck though is it?

Very easy to see the grass being greener. Not sure it is.

not a short term fix need a mature backup ruck
Need someone more mature then Fullarton
We not playing Archie in front of Fullarton so you get both needs in one player

 

[BrisVegasDru]

Hipwood coming back and having any significant impact in 2022 is a long shot imo and we should be prepared for that.

Cant agree more his injury was worse than Cams, and my basketball following mates reckon it takes the tall lanky types longer to recover from acl injuries. Combine that with the athletic nature of the way he played, reckon we need to steel ourselves for a season without him.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I don't quite get the notion of why we need a mature ruck / forward until Hipwood gets back.

I don't recall Hipwood rucking much.

You're missing the point. We need one because sending Joe to the ruck wastes his energy and robs the forward line of his presence.

We are going to be very tight for spots as is. I certainly wouldn't want to be using one for a short term fix.

We can cut enough players to have one veteran coming in and still draft the required number of players. There's nothing wrong with using a list spot on a short-term player if they fill a need.

Who do you think is out there that genuinely presents as a clearly superior option to Fullarton for next year?

Practically any player with a mature body who can take a contested mark and ruck. Vardy, Cox and Casboult are all superior options to Fullarton right now for the role we need filled.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Ummm, I believe there’s a lot of research being done by club recruiting departments on rate of improvement.

Of course there are a lot of other factors that combine with rate of improvement. A players biometrics and athletic traits, growth rate/spurt, birth month, if a kid has come from a multi sport background and is now focusing solely on football, etc.

There’s a lot of research done in the States on this topic, of course they’re looking at other sports, but the principals would be the same.

Ignoring the condescension, I'm sure there's a lot of analysis being done and probably the odd PhD or eight being done. But has there a scientific consensus been reached in the world of Australian Football? I would very much doubt it.

 

[dlanod]

Did you know the Hawks tried to trade in Longer from the Saints, however the Saints wanted to keep Longer and offered McEvoy. How crazy is that

Not quite - Longer was never on the Saints at the same time as McEvoy, so that timeline doesn't work. Hawthorn was the main club linked to Longer on his way out until the Saints stepped in, offered McEvoy to the Hawks, and turned around and offered us peanuts for Longer. Saints definitely chose Longer over McEvoy, but it was impossible for them to be trading Longer to the Hawks.

 

[Nunez]

Not quite - Longer was never on the Saints at the same time as McEvoy, so that timeline doesn't work. Hawthorn was the main club linked to Longer on his way out until the Saints stepped in, offered McEvoy to the Hawks, and turned around and offered us peanuts for Longer. Saints definitely chose Longer over McEvoy, but it was impossible for them to be trading Longer to the Hawks.

Oh true. So long as the story still involves the Saints screwing up I'm happy

 

[briztoon]

Ignoring the condescension, I'm sure there's a lot of analysis being done and probably the odd PhD or eight being done. But has there a scientific consensus been reached in the world of Australian Football? I would very much doubt it.

Sorry The Flying Belgian, there definitely wasn’t any condescension directed towards you.