List Mgmt. 2022 AFL Draft Discussion

[Scorpus]

Our draft haul:

Pick 17 - Max Michalanney (matched F/S)
Pick 43 - Billy Dowling
Pick 50 - Hugh Bond

Rookie Pick 5 - Andrew McPherson

36

Andrew Mcpherson

Age

24

Ht

187cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.5

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.5

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.5

3star

MG

118.5

2star

D

10.5

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.5

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.5

2star

MG

118.5

2star

D

10.5

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

4.5

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.5

4star

MG

118.5

2star

(re-listed)
Rookie Pick 21 - Paul Seedsman

11

Paul Seedsman

Age

32

Ht

190cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

10.7

4star

HB

7.6

5star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.5

4star

D

15.8

4star

K

8.2

3star

HB

7.6

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

1.8

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

14.0

5star

HB

5.8

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

1.4

4star

(re-listed)

 

[Jirkago75]

There are often kids around May/June whose stocks rise. The kids who didn't come through 16s as the 'elite kids'. Generally they end up hits too.

Last year it was Callaghan, who was kind of a mid first/chasing pack type and in May clearly separated himself. In June Darcy did. Both went top 3.

Others who did the same spring to mind as Oliver, Bontempelli, Brayshaw (Andrew).

Phillipou ticks a lot of boxes to be that this year. Good size. December birthday. Year on year improvement is strong. Probably didn't enter the year as a top 10 hype prospect, so hasn't had the eyes on him. I would be very surprised if he didn't end up falling into our range or higher without trading down to snaffle him.

Obviously I want to see more before calling it, but I can see him entering the conversation. Wardlaw and Ashcroft are your standard, generic, always-go-pick-1 prospects. What you see is what you get. A hardworking inside mid and a prolific accumulator. They'll probably play 250 games. They'll probably finish top 10-15 in brownlows. Win a club champion or two. But like most pick 1s, they're mooted there because their floors are the highest, not their ceilings.

If you're looking for a core top 3-5 player on your list to steady the ship, they're the dudes. Phillipou's the boom/bust guy that recruiters are afraid of putting their balls on the line for, but if they go early and against the grain (Oliver, Bontempelli), the rewards are handsome.

With our list as it is, I'd be going a Phillipou. Safe won't get us to the top. Hitting a boom will.



I think so. Especially when it looks like the gulf between pick 1 and where the KPPs will fall could be 7-10 picks. No point reaching. Either maneuvre to get a pick around 10 and pick one, or wait a year.

6 months ago I'd have said they'd be mad to go mid early, but they've got problems there now too. Let's look at their 'future' midfield and disregard Anderson, Greenwood and Cunnington. Keeping in mind you want a 'core four' inside brigade minimum, with a 5th dude who can play elsewhere and be called in if needed.

1. Simpkin (24): Good link up player, but an absolute butcher. Worst kick for a mid in the league and too small to be the bash and crash inside dude. Defensive efforts can be weak. Drafted as a fwd/mid, I think based on available evidence they're going to hope he ends up the 5th dude who plays on a forward flank when others grow past him.

2. Davies-Uniacke (23): He's taken his time, but finally seems to have arrived. Accumulation not amazing, but he can be that ball winner/burst player. Not the main man, but you'd be happy for him to be the third banana

3. Horne-Francis (19): Can be the main man, but you cannot make list decisions based on his long term future at the club until he re-signs.

4. Powell (20): His development appears to have stalled and no longer appears to the sure hit he looked early on. I think he's still fine, but you can't build a list assuming he'll be a surefire hit, especially given he's undersized and defensively a bit eh.

5. Thomas (22): Does he even want a future? Who knows. All the talent, but at 22, you've got to be more

6. Phillips (20): Undersized. Was drafted as that Wardlaw/Ashcroft style 'high floor' type, but hasn't yet shown the high floor. Losing an entire season early in your career to glandular fever is not good. It's ruined careers. He's no longer the certainty he once was.

So you look at that, and 9 months ago I reckon North thought they had JHF, Thomas & Simpkin as near certain on-ball career types, with Phillips, Powell and LDU as >75% chances of being that. Which ends up 5.0-5.5 onballers going forward.

Now I reckon Simpkin, Powell and Phillips are closer to 0.4, 0.3 and 0.5 types, Thomas a 0.2, and JHF still a 1.0 if he sticks around, but you can't budget on that. The only one who's increased his stocks is LDU, who's probably now a 1.0 type. Adds up to 3.5 onballers going forward if JHF sticks around, which is one less than you want.

Unless they're a lot more confident on Powell/Thomas/Phillips than I think they should be, the play is definitely to go onballer again. Worst case you push someone out down the line, so be it.

I like the fact that he already has a forward craft, knows how to kid goals and is a good size. We do not have a player like him on our list.

He could start forward while he builds his tank and get spurts in the midfield. I feel he’s more of a pick 7 plus but you are right to look at Oliver and Bont. Where do you think he will fall in the draft?? I know it’s early though

 

[DJ75]

I'm honestly not against a balls to a wall offer to JHF at this point (potential attitude issues notwithstanding). We've got a lot of kids to build a contender out of, and are in desperate need for an elite midfielder talent (what club isn't?). JHF has shown enough this year to give some confidence he's on that trajectory as well, holding his own as an inside midfielder in his first year, which is rather unusual.

Add in steak knives coming back to us (like a 2nd/3rd) and my attitude is really "if you're convinced the kid is legit, go for it".

I would.

Our club seems to think the drafting part of the rebuild is over. That means they think we have enough talent to build around. However, we don't have that elite, competition leading mid. JHF could be that type of player. I'm willing to take that risk.

 

[Skippos]

I like the fact that he already has a forward craft, knows how to kid goals and is a good size. We do not have a player like him on our list.

He could start forward while he builds his tank and get spurts in the midfield. I feel he’s more of a pick 7 plus but you are right to look at Oliver and Bont. Where do you think he will fall in the draft?? I know it’s early though

I think where he falls in the draft depends on recruiting philosophies.

I generally feel recruiters are far too conservative in a league where you need to be better than 15 other teams to win the thing. Generally conservative recruitment only works if you're elite in the trade/fa space, or if the conservative pick is also the bloke with the highest ceiling (i.e. Petracca in 2014 @ #2).

So I can see a reality where Ashcroft, Wardlaw and Tsatas, Sheezel go ahead of him, and then he's in that Clark, Hewett, Busslinger, McKenzie kind of tier between 5-10. There's obviously the chance that he improves his stocks considerably between now and the draft though and pushes that early tier.

To be honest, I don't know much about how the 'pundits' are seeing the draft this year anyway. Bar what I'm reading in this thread, try to keep a distance from the media coverage until the pointy end so I can form my own opinions/avoid groupthink. So the above blokes might not be in that top 10 mix haha.

If the draft was held today I think I'd probably have this as my top few from pure 'if needs weren't a thing' perspective

1. Ashcroft
2. Phillipou
3. Wardlaw
4. Sheezel
5. Tsatas
6. Hewett
7. Clark
8. McKenzie
9. Busslinger

 

[Jirkago75]

I think where he falls in the draft depends on recruiting philosophies.

I generally feel recruiters are far too conservative in a league where you need to be better than 15 other teams to win the thing. Generally conservative recruitment only works if you're elite in the trade/fa space, or if the conservative pick is also the bloke with the highest ceiling (i.e. Petracca in 2014 @ #2).

So I can see a reality where Ashcroft, Wardlaw and Tsatas, Sheezel go ahead of him, and then he's in that Clark, Hewett, Busslinger, McKenzie kind of tier between 5-10. There's obviously the chance that he improves his stocks considerably between now and the draft though and pushes that early tier.

To be honest, I don't know much about how the 'pundits' are seeing the draft this year anyway. Bar what I'm reading in this thread, try to keep a distance from the media coverage until the pointy end so I can form my own opinions/avoid groupthink. So the above blokes might not be in that top 10 mix haha.

If the draft was held today I think I'd probably have this as my top few from pure 'if needs weren't a thing' perspective

1. Ashcroft
2. Phillipou
3. Wardlaw
4. Sheezel
5. Tsatas
6. Hewett
7. Clark
8. McKenzie
9. Busslinger

Judging potential is impossible but all recruiters see things differently but I like your order. I guess Ashcrofts decision will change things too. I hope we get Phillipou because he’s so different and gives me Petracca vibes.
On a side note, I think he will end up back in Adelaide sooner or later. No knowledge just a feeling

 

[Big Crow]

I'm honestly not against a balls to a wall offer to JHF at this point (potential attitude issues notwithstanding). We've got a lot of kids to build a contender out of, and are in desperate need for an elite midfielder talent (what club isn't?). JHF has shown enough this year to give some confidence he's on that trajectory as well, holding his own as an inside midfielder in his first year, which is rather unusual.

Add in steak knives coming back to us (like a 2nd/3rd) and my attitude is really "if you're convinced the kid is legit, go for it".

I’m leaning this way also. Heck, apart from Rachele and TT it’s not like we tend to make good use of first round draft picks anyway

 

[GreyCrow]

Woah woah - must draft Phillipou

He has a basketball background

 

[StonesThrow]

He also has roots in Tasmania. He can join all of our Tassie recruits: Jones......

 

[Mutineer]

He also has roots in Tasmania. He can join all of our Tassie recruits: Jones......

You posting in riddles again?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

The crowds won’t accept much more going to the draft and deferring all hope for a few more years

Trading in experienced, senior players sells hope.

Hope sells tickets, crowds and sponsorship

The problem is you need to have players that want to come

I’d be surprised if we traded away our 1st pick for this reason

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Not quick but has a power in his running. If we trade pick 4, I’d hope to trade to 8 plus a mid to late teen pick. Would maybe get us big forward or another mid.
If we turn pick 4 into phillipou and Ryan , that would be awesome

I’m a bit worried Essendon could take him if he keeps elevating so not sure re the trade back if we are into him

Essendon been looking for something different for their midfield for a while , they have lots of smaller guys that aren’t overly physical

 

[Sanders]

The problem is you need to have players that want to come

I’d be surprised if we traded away our 1st pick for this reason

$$$

 

[Jeffcrowe]

$$$

Yep that’s the one thing we have in our favour

Not insignificant

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Nah, he's quick

Smooth mover , I reckon he’s half way between Bont and Petracca speed

 

[Dangerousfield]

I’m a bit worried Essendon could take him if he keeps elevating so not sure re the trade back if we are into him

Essendon been looking for something different for their midfield for a while , they have lots of smaller guys that aren’t overly physical

Essendon!!! have to deal with Dodoro to get him back!

Been told U18 Championship games are starting on Fox Footy, haven't checked it out yet.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Essendon!!! have to deal with Dodoro to get him back!

Been told U18 Championship games are starting on Fox Footy, haven't checked it out yet.

I think only Saturday this week Metro vs WA . Worth watching

 

[LiamPickering]

Wait until the combine, he's much quicker than people realise. Also probably closer to 193-194 cm now and probably still growing

Crows interested in him?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Ok this draft I actually ok , superb standard game metro v WA

Would love Hewett WA now but happy with Phillipou

 

[CROWS84]

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Phillipou strengthens claim for No. 1 pick

ESPN.com.au's draft expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of July with Mattaes Phillipou once again sitting on top of the pile.

www.espn.com.au

Certainly not a consensus but Knightmare still has Philippou at 1. It would be a shame to miss out on the premier SA mid in back to back years if he goes ahead of our pick .

 

[CROWS84]

It would be interesting to know how he and JHF compare at same stage of draft year .

 

[Eagleboy2011]

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Phillipou strengthens claim for No. 1 pick

ESPN.com.au's draft expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of July with Mattaes Phillipou once again sitting on top of the pile.

www.espn.com.au

Certainly not a consensus but Knightmare still has Philippou at 1. It would be a shame to miss out on the premier SA mid in back to back years if he goes ahead of our pick .

16. Casey Voss (South Australia - Sturt) Not picked up in midyear and now at 16. That has to be a joke list.

 

[Jirkago75]

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Phillipou strengthens claim for No. 1 pick

ESPN.com.au's draft expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of July with Mattaes Phillipou once again sitting on top of the pile.

www.espn.com.au

Certainly not a consensus but Knightmare still has Philippou at 1. It would be a shame to miss out on the premier SA mid in back to back years if he goes ahead of our pick .

I agree on potential, will be a star

 

[Dangerousfield]

I will be so pissed off if the AFL weakens and gives Norf a pick at the top of the draft pushing us out even further.

I've been frequent and hard on the Norf PP thread on the main board, it's starting to get to me now!

 

[CrowFrenzy]

You posting in riddles again?

Do you like D'Aloia Mutineer? Of those players who will most likely be available to us at pick 4 or 5 who is on your top 3 wish list? Cheers

 

[Mutineer]

Do you like D'Aloia Mutineer? Of those players who will most likely be available to us at pick 4 or 5 who is on your top 3 wish list? Cheers

There's a chance D'Alioa gets through to our 2nd pick, doubt we'd take him with our 1st.

The SA mid I like most re a real value pick is Glenelg's Jake Walker, not mentioned a whole lot in despatches but I like his toughness at the contest and he has genuine acceleration from the contest along with the ability to do damage forward. Probably flying a bit under the radar because he's not played a lot the last couple of years due to injuries but just gets better every outing. Another likely prospect from the strong South East Football area.

 

[CrowFrenzy]

There's a chance D'Alioa gets through to our 2nd pick, doubt we'd take him with our 1st.

The SA mid I like most re a real value pick is Glenelg's Jake Walker, not mentioned a whole lot in despatches but I like his toughness at the contest and he has genuine acceleration from the contest along with the ability to do damage forward. Probably flying a bit under the radar because he's not played a lot the last couple of years due to injuries but just gets better every outing. Another likely prospect from the strong South East Football area.