List Mgmt. 2022 AFL Draft & Rookie Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[Jeremias]

Sorry mate but points mean squat on a live trade.

Not sure about that. I reckon at least half the trades executed on draft day are points related.

 

[Sheephead]

Not sure about that. I reckon at least half the trades executed on draft day are points related.

I mean in terms of value for money. Where the selection falls determines more than adding up some numbers to make it work. So if I get a first and a second and 3 4th rounders for my 2 1sts, I’d rather that over a 1st and a 3rd. Just coz we think it works doesn’t matter. We’re the buyer here, not the seller.

 

[Stamos]

Sorry mate but points mean squat on a live trade. They’ll fill the deficit in other ways with a future 7th if they have to. It’s value for money not points. The system is very pliable.

I know the points don't mean much, but they act as a guide, especially when used to measure previous similar trades.
You pay overs to move up in the first round, and when measured historically, the points are biased to be too high on lower picks.

 

[Stamos]

I mean in terms of value for money. Where the selection falls determines more than adding up some numbers to make it work. So if I get a first and a second and 3 4th rounders for my 2 1sts, I’d rather that over a 1st and a 3rd. Just coz we think it works doesn’t matter. We’re the buyer here, not the seller.

But your suggested trades are the opposite.

 

[mrkyuss]

Let’s not trade down and miss a Haydyn Young to get a Kemp and Philip please (again)

 

[Arr0w]

I know the points don't mean much, but they act as a guide, especially when used to measure previous similar trades.
You pay overs to move up in the first round, and when measured historically, the points are biased to be too high on lower picks.

10, 29 for either 14, 17 or 15, 18 with a future 3rd attached to either deal, is in the ball park

If we do either of those deals before draft night, we can then trade a future 1st (prefer not to unless it's a great deal) or other futures if we want to add an extra pick inside 25

 

[Arr0w]

Let’s not trade down and miss a Haydyn Young to get a Kemp and Philip please (again)

That deal was 12 months prior, more exposed form to make a call now

 

[Stamos]

10, 29 for either 14, 17 or 15, 18 with a future 3rd attached to either deal, is in the ball park

If we do either of those deals before draft night, we can then trade a future 1st (prefer not to unless it's a great deal) or other futures if we want to add an extra pick inside 25

It's different if extra future picks are involved.
If it's just for 2022 picks, then it's our 3rd that should be going back, not our second.

 

[Arr0w]

It's different if extra future picks are involved.
If it's just for 2022 picks, then it's our 3rd that should be going back, not our second.

Then it's unlikely. It's okay to have a win/win trade

Would rather 2 late 1sts over 10 and 29

 

[No1Suspect]

My take on the situation is we're waiting until pick 11 to see if one of Phillipou or Humphrey is still available. If both of them have been taken, that's when we look to trade down the order. Pick 11 for picks 19 + 20 seems the most logical - that gives us three picks inside the top 30 which is what Austin has wanted all along.

Pick 19 is used on a mid - Hollands, Hewett or Hotton. Pick 20 is used on a KPP - Keeler or Gruzewski. With Pick 30 I'd look at if the remaining player out of the two KPPs is still available, otherwise pick up George, Konstanty or Clarke. Last list spot would go on a DFA, depending on who we pick at 30 I'd recruit Ned Cahill or Josh Walker.

If that were the case, id trade down and try and nab Weddle and George

 

[LemmingMaster]

If Ben Allen's boy, Ed, is anything like his old man, I would choose him if he becomes available


Edit: Just checked CAl Twomeys draft ...he has Allen at 18

I posted earlier in this thread, that Allen was an option for our first pick, still have not changed my mind. He reminds me of Ballard in his draft year, that hybrid winger that can play back. I'd not be upset for Carlton to select Allen with our first pick

 

[Bletch]

Reformatted my consensus list (with a bit of help from ferrisb ):



Player colours = home state
Range colours = club ties (father/sons & academies)

Data pulled from a dozen or so sources, "Range" indicates the high and low rankings from the various sources.

Detail data:

 

[Bluey19]

That deal was 12 months prior, more exposed form to make a call now

Oh really!

 

[GT619]

Let’s not trade down and miss a Haydyn Young to get a Kemp and Philip please (again)

Name Hayden Young in this draft

 

[LemmingMaster]

Name Hayden Young in this draft

I had Hayden Young close to pick 1 worth in his draft year, the kid was a jet and his kicking skills alone made him a top 1% prospect. Not to mention his toughness and aerial skills. (I think I did rate him #1 in his draft year from memory)

 

[Arr0w]

Oh really!

Yes, really!!

We traded our future 1sts with Crows the year before Hayden Young draft, where he was taken before where our 1st pick was.

We then bid on Green and Henry, before trading back again

Did I miss something?

 

[LemmingMaster]

Then it's unlikely. It's okay to have a win/win trade

Would rather 2 late 1sts over 10 and 29

It is a tough call, that pick 10 can be a serious slider that you as a football team rate very highly.

Then pick 29 could be a Motlop styled selection where you're hitting draft needs and you would have picked him at late first round anyway.

I'd almost want pick 10 and 29 over two late first round selections.

Using Bletch's list from above.

Ginbey/Hewett and Allen/Darcy Jones/Hagan

might be better than

Hotton and Hustwaite...{insert players here}

Just important to know where you have tier breaks in players.

*Personally, I have a few tiers of players

Tier One
Ashcroft
Cadman
Wardlaw

Tier Two
Tsatas
Sheezel
Ginbey
Clark
Phillipou
Hewett
Busslinger
(Still not sure if I like Bailey or not yet!! Getting some JDG vibes as a player and I was wrong on his on field ability)

Tier Three
I am open to options from here, I could "reach for a few upside players at this point.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If he gets past Geelong there’s every chance he makes it to our pick.

I personally don’t rate him in the best 5/6 prospects. Will be interesting to see where recruiters rate him.

Id say he's got the potential to be the best player in the draft. Imo he's been poorly coached/not accepted feedback and been allowed to get away with being a purely offensive weapon with no interest in anything else. His speed from stoppages and ability to swoop on loose balls is freakish but if he's going to be successful at AFL level he will need to add a lot of defensive craft to his game.

 

[Arr0w]

It is a tough call, that pick 10 can be a serious slider that you as a football team rate very highly.

Then pick 29 could be a Motlop styled selection where you're hitting draft needs and you would have picked him at late first round anyway.

I'd almost want pick 10 and 29 over two late first round selections.

Using Bletch's list from above.

Ginbey/Hewett and Allen/Darcy Jones/Hagan

might be better than

Hotton and Hustwaite...{insert players here}

Just important to know where you have tier breaks in players.

*Personally, I have a few tiers of players

Tier One
Ashcroft
Cadman
Wardlaw

Tier Two
Tsatas
Sheezel
Ginbey
Clark
Phillipou
Hewett
Busslinger
(Still not sure if I like Bailey or not yet!! Getting some JDG vibes as a player and I was wrong on his on field ability)

Tier Three
I am open to options from here, I could "reach for a few upside players at this point.

I guess it will come down to intel, which players we rate as say a top 8-9. If the club is predicting they will be gone by our 1st pick, they might rate players 11-20 at a similar level

Personally, I would hold onto 10, 29 and try to acquire an early 2nd with a future 2nd

 

[ray8182]

We dont think GWS don’t know how valuable 19 is - really.

Also, 49 will get you a bag of chips at the corner store. It’s us who want their picks not vice versa. Ahh Draft time - the time when all AFL supporters want the unbelievable. 10 and 49 gets you 14 and 42 or 19 and 31.it’s not worth Jack. 29 on the other hand gets you 14/17 or 15/18. GWS just lost 4 solid players remember. SYD are a player away from a Premiership.

Anyway - Spoke to a mate who works the mines in the Pilbara about half a ago - as a result, I just re-watched Elijah Hewett highlights - he is as good as anyone in this draft IMO. If he makes our pick - we should take him. Could be the next Judd. Yep E HEWETT 3 Votes - quote me.

Get back into the early 2nd somehow and take Barnett and we are gold.

DeKoning and McKay as our KPF pillars. Curnow to play Kouta II.

After Ashcroft, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Cadman l think Hewett is the equal of anyone.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

 

[GT619]

I had Hayden Young close to pick 1 worth in his draft year, the kid was a jet and his kicking skills alone made him a top 1% prospect. Not to mention his toughness and aerial skills. (I think I did rate him #1 in his draft year from memory)

Who's equal to him this year

 

[Wickzki]

Who's equal to him this year

Shadeau Brain

 

[GT619]

Shadeau Brain

Who's that some campaigner

Mod edit: don't evade the swear filter.

 

[Sheephead]

Hindsight is wonderful. Young is a very good player. But did we even have a shot at him? Thought he went higher. Didn’t he go earlier with Serong or something And then we bid on someone as we had 9 and then ended up we moved back for Kemp. Maybe. It was busy for Freo I remember, but we didn’t leave Young on the table. It wasnt a strong draft after the first couple and then maybe 2-3 more. 9 (11) got us what was then 17 and 22. 22 was traded again to move up to get Philp.

This year, Ashcroft is the only one I put above Hewett and he’s obviously unattainable. I think Sheezel is overrated - not confidently sure what he brings to be rated so high. He looks good in U18 but doesn’t dominate for long periods. Wardlaw has to get fit, he’s an unknown somewhat, though is highly rated - has been for a few years. Cadman could be a Watts or a McKay, he’s certainly not a given. Only worry I have with Hewett is the go home. I actually think WCE take him at 8/9 and hope Busslinger holds to 12/13. The other Sandgroper Ginbey will be gone. Hawks or GCS or the dopers.

Isn’t there rumours we’ve already spoken with GWS about their load of firsts. Going by the Kemp trade in ‘19, 10 might get you 18/19 as they could be the 2nd and 3rd picks on day 2. Ashcroft and Davey bids potentially pushing them down - makes them much less favourable. Or 15 and 31. Not sure 10 gets you 15 and 18/19 unless you add 29. Maybe we can get 31 back somehow. Big price for GWS considering they just lost 4 best 22 players UNLESS they have someone lined up at 10(11) they really want - Busslinger or Hayes maybe. Though their remaining mids are old/slow. I think it’ll be a draft night live trade if at all. SYD may be interested but I reckon WCE hold.

 

[Ash24]

Let’s not trade down and miss a Haydyn Young to get a Kemp and Philip please (again)

We had pick 9 and Young was selected at pick 7, so your point doesn't really make any sense.

I think a more accurate way to look at it is Pickett/Weightman vs Kemp + Philp. But then just as likely we could've used pick 9 (became 11) on Sam Flanders or Cooper Stephens, instead of splitting it for 17 and 20 and picking up SDK and DevRob.

The point is you never really know. Back in your list managers, because whether you split the picks or keep the singular high one, you could end up picking a star or a bust either way.