Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[PezzDogg95]

Does anyone know if the rule that 'you can only take the same amount of draft picks into the draft as you have list spots' is still active?

I think the AFL placed this restriction a year or two after the points system started as the teams with northern academies found this loophole and went to the draft with 10 picks for like 4 list spots.

If it is, GC will have to cut a fair few players to activate all their later picks, or combine them and look to move up the draft order to activate the points.

Just want to gauge what their strategy might be in terms as it will majorly shape the draft overall.

 

[Revenant1995]

Does anyone know if the rule that 'you can only take the same amount of draft picks into the draft as you have list spots' is still active?

I think the AFL placed this restriction a year or two after the points system started as the teams with northern academies found this loophole and went to the draft with 10 picks for like 4 list spots.

If it is, GC will have to cut a fair few players to activate all their later picks, or combine them and look to move up the draft order to activate the points.

Just want to gauge what their strategy might be in terms as it will majorly shape the draft overall.

A club has to have enough spots on their list for all the picks they take to the draft. So, they can’t warehouse 10 draft picks to cover points if they only have a maximum of three places available on their playing list.

All you need to know about the AFL draft points system

There are two elite father-son prospects this year, Nick Daicos and Sam Darcy. Here’s how the points system will deliver them to their clubs on draft night.

www.theage.com.au

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

How does an academy pick effect the draft value of other players?
To my logic, someone like Caddy or O'Sullivan might drop from say #8 to #16? when the good academy players get selected, but these acc, players were very unlikely to be available to other clubs anyway.
So #8 becomes #16, but to all other clubs, their still valued as the 8th best player available.

It’s true but if you pretend the academy kids aren’t in the draft then it’s a weak draft class so where our pick will fall will probably be in a range where the quality is average rather then being good had the academy kids/FS not been aligned to a club.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Use our 2024 first to move our 2023 first up the draft board, happy to do this as long as we get a second or third back in the 2024 draft



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[Stamos]

Use our 2024 first to move our 2023 first up the draft board, happy to do this as long as we get a second or third back in the 2024 draft

If we can get a trade to move into the top talent this year, we’re not getting anything back.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Quite like the look of Caleb Windsor, can't have enough good kicks of the sherrin and likely to be around our pick, but also possibly fits the lowest need positionally

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Use our 2024 first to move our 2023 first up the draft board, happy to do this as long as we get a second or third back in the 2024 draft



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I'd argue that no club would offer up a pick high enough to make such a trade worthwhile. We were struggling to come up with names when we thought we were going to have a pick in that range to begin with. What makes us think that the possible player we pick up is now worth two first round picks? I'd be looking at trading into the second round, like we did last year.

 

[Stamos]

I'd argue that no club would offer up a pick high enough to make such a trade worthwhile.

Gold Coast's pick is on the table, although they likely get a better bid.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Lachie Charleson (small forward) - a lazy 8 goals from 22 disposals for the GWS Rebels up against the Bendigo Pioneers on the weekend.

Apparently didn't get an invite in the first wave of invitees to the state combine. No doubt will put him on the radar of a few clubs though.

 

[ferrisb]

I think fans (and maybe some clubs) have their head on backwards re trading future picks - especially around future father-son selections.

Here are my thoughts

1) Picks this year are almost always worth more than picks next year. This is the big one*
2) You get better value helping out another team with their needs than you do solving your own
3) The team taking on the future pick takes on the uncertainty. You generally get paid a premium to do so.
4) Guessing father-son players' value a year out is folly - rankings change drastically in underage year (superstars aside)
5) Father-son draftees regular get bid on later than expected (and later than 'fair value')
6) You are allowed live trading. Even AFTER a father-son/NGA/Academy bid. Why 2nd guess where the kid might get bid a year out, when you can wait until they are actually bid (you would need to have some handshake deals sorted ahead of draft night if this was your strategy)
7) Teams will have to assume our next year's 1st will be 15-18 and will pay accordingly (poorly). There's little upside for us by doing well, but downside for us by doing badly next year

Conclusion: Don't trade out next year's first for something this year in order to prepare for Campo's boys. We will get a bad deal trying to make that happen. I expect we'd be MUCH better off waiting til next year and then trading out into 2025 draft. Or for a stack of points in 2024 draft (which should see us generously compensated).

* There's half a dozen reasons why I think this is the case. I can bore you with the details if you really want.
** All of the above arguments (excl #7) are presented in a vacuum, rules that apply generally every year. They do not take into account specific draft strengths nor are players/needs not taken into account. Eg if next year was a superdraft. Or if there was a super WA talent coming in next year, WCE might try and roll its early pick to next year (imagine if Curtin was underage).

 

[ferrisb]

Lachie Charleson (small forward) - a lazy 8 goals from 22 disposals for the GWS Rebels up against the Bendigo Pioneers on the weekend.

Apparently didn't get an invite in the first wave of invitees to the state combine. No doubt will put him on the radar of a few clubs though.

Carlton very keen to draft him to maintain our high Lachie/Lochie ratios once Plowman is delisted.

Pretty sure.

 

[ferrisb]

Whacky hypothetical:

If we won the premiership and had the final pick of the 1st round, would you trade it for the 1st pick of the 2nd round? (Assuming current two-day draft split)

I would...

 

[Stamos]

I think fans (and maybe some clubs) have their head on backwards re trading future picks - especially around future father-son selections.

Here are my thoughts

1) Picks this year are almost always worth more than picks next year. This is the big one*
2) You get better value helping out another team with their needs than you do solving your own
3) The team taking on the future pick takes on the uncertainty. You generally get paid a premium to do so.
4) Guessing father-son players' value a year out is folly - rankings change drastically in underage year (superstars aside)
5) Father-son draftees regular get bid on later than expected (and later than 'fair value')
6) You are allowed live trading. Even AFTER a father-son/NGA/Academy bid. Why 2nd guess where the kid might get bid a year out, when you can wait until they are actually bid (you would need to have some handshake deals sorted ahead of draft night if this was your strategy)
7) Teams will have to assume our next year's 1st will be 15-18 and will pay accordingly (poorly). There's little upside for us by doing well, but downside for us by doing badly next year

Conclusion: Don't trade out next year's first for something this year in order to prepare for Campo's boys. We will get a bad deal trying to make that happen. I expect we'd be MUCH better off waiting til next year and then trading out into 2025 draft. Or for a stack of points in 2024 draft (which should see us generously compensated).

* There's half a dozen reasons why I think this is the case. I can bore you with the details if you really want.
** All of the above arguments (excl #7) are presented in a vacuum, rules that apply generally every year. They do not take into account specific draft strengths nor are players/needs not taken into account. Eg if next year was a superdraft. Or if there was a super WA talent coming in next year, WCE might try and roll its early pick to next year (imagine if Curtin was underage).

All good points.

The counter this year is there seems to be a very good top 10ish, then it becomes a lot more even/differently rated.
If trading our F1 to get our 1st up into this range it's likely worth it.
The other of course is if we can get a targeted player that we highly rate by bringing a future pick forward.

 

[Stamos]

Whacky hypothetical:

If we won the premiership and had the final pick of the 1st round, would you trade it for the 1st pick of the 2nd round? (Assuming current two-day draft split)

I would...

In this draft there is probably a good reason to do the trade.
One negative though is the number of 1st round picks a club needs to make in order to have future flexibility. If we don't use a 1st this year, we will only have taken 1 (Hollands) in 4 years.

 

[ferrisb]

All good points.

The counter this year is there seems to be a very good top 10ish, then it becomes a lot more even/differently rated.
If trading our F1 to get our 1st up into this range it's likely worth it.
The other of course is if we can get a targeted player that we highly rate by bringing a future pick forward.

Fo shiz - my arguments ignore specific player targets and/or draft strengths and drop-off points.

But let's say this year has a strong top 10. Who would give us a top 10 for next year's 1st? We'd have to at least pay something worth at least a 1st and a 2nd.

Such a trade would only work if there was someone at 10 we thought was top 5 worthy.

Or like Binns last year. Teams would be less worried about rolling picks forward once you're in late 2nd round and beyond.

In fact, late in a draft might be the perfect reverse logic trade. If a team intends to pass on this year's 3rd rounder (as it has 3 picks/rookie upgrades already spoken for), that team would probably swap that for a future fourth (giving them at least some value out of it). And providing value to the counter-party. In this case the value is transferred to the team trading into this year's draft.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Whacky hypothetical:

If we won the premiership and had the final pick of the 1st round, would you trade it for the 1st pick of the 2nd round? (Assuming current two-day draft split)

I would...

No, there are always curve balls but I wouldn’t bet on other clubs being unorganised enough on day 1 of the draft that a lower pick becomes more valuable.

 

[ferrisb]

If we don't use a 1st this year, we will only have taken 1 (Hollands) in 4 years.

Easy solution.

Cook waltzes down to AFL House in one of his old Geelong polos.

Nek minnut... immediate exemption.

 

[Stamos]

Fo shiz - my arguments ignore specific player targets and/or draft strengths and drop-off points.

But let's say this year has a strong top 10. Who would give us a top 10 for next year's 1st? We'd have to at least pay next year's 1st AND 2nd.

Such a trade would only work if there was someone at 10 we thought was top 5 worthy.

Or like Binns last year. Teams would be less worried about rolling picks forward once you're in late 2nd round and beyond.

In fact, late in a draft might be the perfect reverse logic trade. If a team intends to pass on this year's 3rd rounder (as it has 3 picks/rookie upgrades already spoken for), that team would probably swap that for a future fourth (giving them at least some value out of it). And providing value to the counter-party. In this case the team trading INTO this year's.

The Suns' pick is for sale.
1st + F1 might not be the best bid, but there is some small chance that it is.

As to the later picks part, certainly. But it will also depend on how many spots we have open. I could see us only using our 1st.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

In this draft there is probably a good reason to do the trade.
One negative though is the number of 1st round picks a club needs to make in order to have future flexibility. If we don't use a 1st this year, we will only have taken 1 (Hollands) in 4 years.

I think the AFL ditched that rule earlier this year. From what I gather from this article, it appears there's no limit to the number of 1st round picks you can trade, but you still can't trade out your future 1st and 2nd (similar to previous years).

Player movement explosion? Why trade shackles are off for AFL clubs

The AFL has strict rules on trading first-round and future draft picks, but clubs are in prime position this year to make a player movement splash.

www.theage.com.au

 

[macky99]

The Suns' pick is for sale.
1st + F1 might not be the best bid, but there is some small chance that it is.

As to the later picks part, certainly. But it will also depend on how many spots we have open. I could see us only using our 1st.

Based on where our list is at in terms of its age profile & being a premiership contender, trading our F1st makes alot of sense this year, getting 1-2 quality kids via this draft should enhance our opportunity for sustainable success whilst our best players are at their peak.

Gold Coast & GWS are likely to be open to trading early picks.

 

[ferrisb]

The Suns' pick is for sale.
1st + F1 might not be the best bid, but there is some small chance that it is.

As to the later picks part, certainly. But it will also depend on how many spots we have open. I could see us only using our 1st.

The Suns need to shed that high pick to account for potentially three early NGA bids.

They will get paid through the roof for that pick. Which is an example of my theory at work IMHO.

Us only using our 1st is a valid scenario. But a scenario that my original set of draft rules deliberately is ignoring. There will always be specific player/draft/list management considerations. And these may end up being the dominant considerations in any situation. My 'draft rules' were mainly suggested as a starting point. And then all the considerations are then layered on top of that.

As a bad analogy - your team needs to learn how to play footy first. And then you can tweak your gameplan according to the opposition. If you worry about your opponents first and then try and learn how to play footy, it's much harder.

 

[Stamos]

I think the AFL ditched that rule earlier this year. From what I gather from this article, it appears there's no limit to the number of 1st round picks you can trade, but you still can't trade out your future 1st and 2nd (similar to previous years).

Player movement explosion? Why trade shackles are off for AFL clubs

The AFL has strict rules on trading first-round and future draft picks, but clubs are in prime position this year to make a player movement splash.

www.theage.com.au

Although it is not entirely clear, I think that article points to all clubs qualifying to be able to trade their F1 due to having taken enough 1sts in the previous 4 years, rather than the rule being changed?

 

[Bletch]

Based on where our list is at in terms of its age profile & being a premiership contender, trading our F1st makes alot of sense this year, getting 1-2 quality kids via this draft should enhance our opportunity for sustainable success whilst our best players are at their peak.

Gold Coast & GWS are likely to be open to trading early picks.

As Stamos says a few posts back, we can always ask. But it's unlikely. Our first pick this year is going to be at least 16 and if we go deep into September could be in the early 20s (due to academy and father/sons). Other sides will be looking at our finish to this year, and rating our next year's first similarly, and again there are a few father/sons early next year - so around pick 20. What do you think is a reasonable trade for say a pick 16 and 20? Be very fortunate to get into the top 10 this year I'd think.

I agree with ferris - keep next year's first and live trade it if a bid comes in before it. Bank a bunch of 3rd/4th round picks for points (we can trade out our 4ths from this year into next). Consider trading our future 2nd into a 2nd round pick this year. See if we have any player trades that might get an extra pick (or help with trading up).

 

[macky99]

As Stamos says a few posts back, we can always ask. But it's unlikely. Our first pick this year is going to be at least 16 and if we go deep into September could be in the early 20s (due to academy and father/sons). Other sides will be looking at our finish to this year, and rating our next year's first similarly, and again there are a few father/sons early next year - so around pick 20. What do you think is a reasonable trade for say a pick 16 and 20? Be very fortunate to get into the top 10 this year I'd think.

I agree with ferris - keep next year's first and live trade it if a bid comes in before it. Bank a bunch of 3rd/4th round picks for points (we can trade out our 4ths from this year into next). Consider trading our future 2nd into a 2nd round pick this year. See if we have any player trades that might get an extra pick (or help with trading up).

Our ladder position is still very undetermined, but two picks 13-15 should equate for a top 10 pick in particular clubs like GWS who will have multiple 1st round picks & Gold Coast will likely offload the 1st pick, also depends if we anything attractive we can throw in eg Fisher is a possibility.

We need to strengthen our hand in this draft & look to be creative to do so.

 

[Bletch]

Our ladder position is still very undetermined, but two picks 13-15 should equate to a top 10 pick in particular clubs like GWS who will have multiple 1st round picks & Gold Coast will likely offload the 1st pick, also depends if we anything attractive we can throw in eg Fisher.

Where are those two picks coming from?