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Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

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There is also potential for extra picks from players that may be traded out. For example are these around the mark….

Tdk = pick 20-30 (?)
Fisher = pick in 30-40
Jsos = pick >40
Dow = pick 30-40 (?)

If so we don’t have too many pick options <30

Would we consider using our future 1st or 2nd this year?
 
There is also potential for extra picks from players that may be traded out. For example are these around the mark….

Tdk = pick 20-30 (?)
Fisher = pick in 30-40
Jsos = pick >40
Dow = pick 30-40 (?)

If so we don’t have too many pick options <30

Would we consider using our future 1st or 2nd this year?
TDK will be a first rounder otherwise we won’t trade him
 
If TDK was to go and we got a first rounder for him,
I'd be pissed if we traded 2x firsts, just to move up a few places in the order...

More picks at the top end of the draft the better...
I agree multiple top picks would be best. Someone like Reid would be great but I'd much rather 3 good kids.

Our movable assets imo are:

2023 F1, TDK, 2024 F1 and Fisher, Gov, Dow, Hewett/Kennedy.

2023 F1 - 4-8
2024 F1 - 10-15
TDK Trade - 15-20
Fisher Trade - 40-50
Gov Trade - 30-40
Dow Trade - 40-50
Hewett/Kennedy Trade - 20-30

Hope we'd be able to combine all of that to get something like 5, 10, 15, 30. Give or take a few picks either way.

Then we go 1 of 4 ways depending on who's available with our first selection which probably dictates the rest of our choices afterwards.

5 - Colby Mckercher (Balanced Mid)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Jack Delean (Small Fwd)
30 - Ollie Murphy (KPD)

5 - Nate Caddy (KPF/3rd Tall)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Will Lorenz (Balanced Mid)
30 - Jack Callinan (Small Fwd/HHF)

5 - Nick Watson (Small Fwd)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Will Lorenz (Balanced Mid)
30 - Ollie Murphy (KPD)

5 - Zane Duursma (Inside Mid/Fwd)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Connor O'Sullivan (KPD)
30 - Jack Callinan (Small Fwd/HHF)

I'm still not sure what the best option would be... I'd like us to have a crack at Ben Mckay more than Gresham to allow us to use Young as a backup Ruck/Fwd if TDK was to leave
 

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I agree multiple top picks would be best. Someone like Reid would be great but I'd much rather 3 good kids.

Our movable assets imo are:

2023 F1, TDK, 2024 F1 and Fisher, Gov, Dow, Hewett/Kennedy.

2023 F1 - 4-8
2024 F1 - 10-15
TDK Trade - 15-20
Fisher Trade - 40-50
Gov Trade - 30-40
Dow Trade - 40-50
Hewett/Kennedy Trade - 20-30

Hope we'd be able to combine all of that to get something like 5, 10, 15, 30. Give or take a few picks either way.

Then we go 1 of 4 ways depending on who's available with our first selection which probably dictates the rest of our choices afterwards.

5 - Colby Mckercher (Balanced Mid)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Jack Delean (Small Fwd)
30 - Ollie Murphy (KPD)

5 - Nate Caddy (KPF/3rd Tall)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Will Lorenz (Balanced Mid)
30 - Jack Callinan (Small Fwd/HHF)

5 - Nick Watson (Small Fwd)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Will Lorenz (Balanced Mid)
30 - Ollie Murphy (KPD)

5 - Zane Duursma (Inside Mid/Fwd)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Connor O'Sullivan (KPD)
30 - Jack Callinan (Small Fwd/HHF)

I'm still not sure what the best option would be... I'd like us to have a crack at Ben Mckay more than Gresham to allow us to use Young as a backup Ruck/Fwd if TDK was to leave
A lot of optimism there.

Think we will be closer to #8 than #5. Either way it will be fascinating to see how the draft order pans out.

Reid, Walter and increasingly suggested Duursma(I don’t see it, high ceiling but lower floor than I would like at the pointy end) top 3.

In the mix top 5 Curtain, Caddy, Watson, McKercher definitely, with a handful of others who could enter the top 10.

That forward with X factor seems to be our greatest priority. Would be a great outcome of Caddy or Watson reaches us. Different players, but both would serve a purpose. Caddy likened to our Charlie, mobile under sized key/third tall, if Watson was a few centimetres taller would be getting some of the Reid pick one love. Small forward/utility with athleticism, skill and mongrel. I don’t dislike Darcy Wilson, just missing X factor for mine compared to others

Depending on the perception of Young internally, as well as long term intentions for Kempy, Dan Curtain could be very attractive. Defender first, but played both forward and mid at club level this season. KPD and/or high level interceptor with a VERY complete skill set.

I have my doubts any of the three I just named will get to us. If they do, it reverts to “best available” for me.

Doubting we chase a pure mid. Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Kennedy, Hewett, Doc are logically going nowhere. A resurgent Cuners, Dutchy is likely to develop as much engine room as wing, Binns an option on the outside and some have written Carroll off too early. ( I am forecasting a state league mid acquisition). Williams will be back to add dash too either back or connecting.

Healthier Walsh, Cuningham and better deployed Cez improve the mobility and reckon they may have to decide between Kennedy and Hewett as top team staples in coming years. Not seeing vacancy signs in our midfield. Campo boys likely to add to our mobility the following year. I can also see us redeploying some of our current defenders on wings as the positional squeeze tightens.

If TDK was to leave, there would be some argument to grab 207cm Mitch Edwards to “fix” our long term rucking issues as well. Likewise, if McGovern is not retained we would be prompted to look at Curtain if he lasts or O’Sullivan probably a little later or even Will Patton, more interceptor than KPD enter our high end mix.

Already had Phillipou and Hollands bracketed for our pick at this stage last year, this year remains a mystery.
 
A lot of optimism there.

Think we will be closer to #8 than #5. Either way it will be fascinating to see how the draft order pans out.

Reid, Walter and increasingly suggested Duursma(I don’t see it, high ceiling but lower floor than I would like at the pointy end) top 3.

In the mix top 5 Curtain, Caddy, Watson, McKercher definitely, with a handful of others who could enter the top 10.

That forward with X factor seems to be our greatest priority. Would be a great outcome of Caddy or Watson reaches us. Different players, but both would serve a purpose. Caddy likened to our Charlie, mobile under sized key/third tall, if Watson was a few centimetres taller would be getting some of the Reid pick one love. Small forward/utility with athleticism, skill and mongrel. I don’t dislike Darcy Wilson, just missing X factor for mine compared to others

Depending on the perception of Young internally, as well as long term intentions for Kempy, Dan Curtain could be very attractive. Defender first, but played both forward and mid at club level this season. KPD and/or high level interceptor with a VERY complete skill set.

I have my doubts any of the three I just named will get to us. If they do, it reverts to “best available” for me.

Doubting we chase a pure mid. Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Kennedy, Hewett, Doc are logically going nowhere. A resurgent Cuners, Dutchy is likely to develop as much engine room as wing, Binns an option on the outside and some have written Carroll off too early. ( I am forecasting a state league mid acquisition). Williams will be back to add dash too either back or connecting.

Healthier Walsh, Cuningham and better deployed Cez improve the mobility and reckon they may have to decide between Kennedy and Hewett as top team staples in coming years. Not seeing vacancy signs in our midfield. Campo boys likely to add to our mobility the following year. I can also see us redeploying some of our current defenders on wings as the positional squeeze tightens.

If TDK was to leave, there would be some argument to grab 207cm Mitch Edwards to “fix” our long term rucking issues as well. Likewise, if McGovern is not retained we would be prompted to look at Curtain if he lasts or O’Sullivan probably a little later or even Will Patton, more interceptor than KPD enter our high end mix.

Already had Phillipou and Hollands bracketed for our pick at this stage last year, this year remains a mystery.
Won't go through all the different points you've written but I think we're pretty likely to finish bottom 6 as it is, one win against a pathetic Gold Coast side won't change my opinion on that... But if we did have a renaissance I think we should be doing everything we could to trade into the top 5 picks this year given the types of players available around that mark.

A tier ranking right now of the top 20 prospects would be something like:

Tier 1 - H Reid
*
Tier 2 - Walter, Caddy, Watson
*
Tier 3 - Duursma, Mckercher
*
Tier 4 - Curtin, Edwards, Sanders, Rogers
*
Tier 5 - Wilson, Read, Delean, O'Sullivan, Moir
*
Tier 6 - Philactides, Patton, Lorenz, Tholstrup, McCabe, A Reid


The players in that tier 4 will be expected to go between about 6-12 and would all be pretty well useless for us in the short term. All may end up good players for us down the track but someone like Curtin coming in next year would not be something I'd be happy with. Curtin will need a few years to be strong enough to play KPD, Edwards probably need 4-5 just to be able to play in the AFL as a ruck full time. Sanders is a scrappy big bodied inside mid who's biggest flaw is his ball use, which is more of the same for us. Rogers, tied to GCS Academy.

Duursma and Mckercher are the most realistic options for us that would benefit us in year 1. Caddy and Watson are my two favourites in the draft but they are very unlikely to go past pick 3 and 4 after Walter and would take a lot to get up to either. Can't see it happening but who knows what happens draft night.

If its clear they are all unattainable I wouldn't be surprised if we traded down into that tier 5-6 to pick up more players like Wilson, Delean, Moir, Tholstrup, Lorenz etc rather than going for a Curtin or Edwards who I love as prospects... just not for us in the position our list is in right now. By the time they start impacting games consistently and are physically developed, Charlie, H and Weitering etc will be closing in on 30 years old and Cripps, Doc etc will likely be retired.

I just feel like we'll be looking for year 1-2 impact from any players we pick up this year to maximise the primes of Charlie, Weiters etc and try and address any KPP/Ruck holes we have via trade or free agency. Waiting around for Edwards to add 20kgs to his frame and build his tank just doesn't seem like a wise choice even if he may end up a better player than someone like Delean who would provide us spark in the forward half very early on.
 
Zane Duursma, in a heart beat form the 2023 cohort if opportunity arises, if taken, Will Lorenz or Wilson , our midfield needs speed and good users first and foremost, it’s a continual upgrading process.
Nick Watson would be really amazing but probably unavailable by our pick.
Gresham a RFA would be a really good too, if he's salary demands are reasonably and not matched by Saints.
Also a viable primary Ruck option if TDK is traded, another RFA ? again our offer not matched , so no picks required.
 
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You give Moir a couple of years in the system with a professional trainer and he's going to develop into a monster.
 
Won't go through all the different points you've written but I think we're pretty likely to finish bottom 6 as it is, one win against a pathetic Gold Coast side won't change my opinion on that... But if we did have a renaissance I think we should be doing everything we could to trade into the top 5 picks this year given the types of players available around that mark.

A tier ranking right now of the top 20 prospects would be something like:

Tier 1 - H Reid
*
Tier 2 - Walter, Caddy, Watson
*
Tier 3 - Duursma, Mckercher
*
Tier 4 - Curtin, Edwards, Sanders, Rogers
*
Tier 5 - Wilson, Read, Delean, O'Sullivan, Moir
*
Tier 6 - Philactides, Patton, Lorenz, Tholstrup, McCabe, A Reid


The players in that tier 4 will be expected to go between about 6-12 and would all be pretty well useless for us in the short term. All may end up good players for us down the track but someone like Curtin coming in next year would not be something I'd be happy with. Curtin will need a few years to be strong enough to play KPD, Edwards probably need 4-5 just to be able to play in the AFL as a ruck full time. Sanders is a scrappy big bodied inside mid who's biggest flaw is his ball use, which is more of the same for us. Rogers, tied to GCS Academy.

Duursma and Mckercher are the most realistic options for us that would benefit us in year 1. Caddy and Watson are my two favourites in the draft but they are very unlikely to go past pick 3 and 4 after Walter and would take a lot to get up to either. Can't see it happening but who knows what happens draft night.

If its clear they are all unattainable I wouldn't be surprised if we traded down into that tier 5-6 to pick up more players like Wilson, Delean, Moir, Tholstrup, Lorenz etc rather than going for a Curtin or Edwards who I love as prospects... just not for us in the position our list is in right now. By the time they start impacting games consistently and are physically developed, Charlie, H and Weitering etc will be closing in on 30 years old and Cripps, Doc etc will likely be retired.

I just feel like we'll be looking for year 1-2 impact from any players we pick up this year to maximise the primes of Charlie, Weiters etc and try and address any KPP/Ruck holes we have via trade or free agency. Waiting around for Edwards to add 20kgs to his frame and build his tank just doesn't seem like a wise choice even if he may end up a better player than someone like Delean who would provide us spark in the forward half very early on.
We see things quite differently. Won’t get in to a tit for tat debate.

Curtain will play AFL year 1, he is as much ball player as KPD, think Weitering with “wheels”. (Third tall releasing Kemp up the ground would suit me.) Edwards will be much quicker than you are suggesting, he has forward capability as well, making for easier integration, is the best ruck prospect for many years and could conceivably be incorporated as early as year 1, if drafted to a needy team. Will be “capable” in two to three years. Will absolutely be a slow burn to reach the peak of his powers, but will get plenty of games year 2 latest.

Sanders is a much more bankable prospect than McKercher and is the type to adapt to multiple positions if needed. I am astounded that you are knocking his ball use while elevating McKercher. I may have a little bias as Sanders’ grandfather was a star of “my era” and I have watched plenty from afar, keeps stepping up. If McKercher miraculously gets over his ball butchering, I would be happy to revisit. He absolutely has “the moves”. I am Tasmanian originally and as an old left footer, love seeing the point of difference. I would love to “support” McKercher, but our club needs good users before anything else, and he just ain’t it. He has and will turn heads, but how many clubs tolerate poor kicking from high possession players?
 
Yes correct Moir and most draftees just school kids, very difficult to imagine them been able to endure the physical duress and fitness demands of senior footy, but will develop nicely with a few seasons pending position and their physic. Like Ashton’s style, highly talented.
We look out for the skillful glimpses which glimmer and signs of good character.
 
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We see things quite differently. Won’t get in to a tit for tat debate.

Curtain will play AFL year 1, he is as much ball player as KPD, think Weitering with “wheels”. (Third tall releasing Kemp up the ground would suit me.) Edwards will be much quicker than you are suggesting, he has forward capability as well, making for easier integration, is the best ruck prospect for many years and could conceivably be incorporated as early as year 1, if drafted to a needy team. Will be “capable” in two to three years. Will absolutely be a slow burn to reach the peak of his powers, but will get plenty of games year 2 latest.

Sanders is a much more bankable prospect than McKercher and is the type to adapt to multiple positions if needed. I am astounded that you are knocking his ball use while elevating McKercher. I may have a little bias as Sanders’ grandfather was a star of “my era” and I have watched plenty from afar, keeps stepping up. If McKercher miraculously gets over his ball butchering, I would be happy to revisit. He absolutely has “the moves”. I am Tasmanian originally and as an old left footer, love seeing the point of difference. I would love to “support” McKercher, but our club needs good users before anything else, and he just ain’t it. He has and will turn heads, but how many clubs tolerate poor kicking from high possession players?
Yes it's clear we don't see eye to eye on it all but thats fine, I'll leave it at that. I think Edwards, Curtin, Sanders and others are going to be very good players for someone, just don't think they're fits for us but thats okay.
 
I agree multiple top picks would be best. Someone like Reid would be great but I'd much rather 3 good kids.

Our movable assets imo are:

2023 F1, TDK, 2024 F1 and Fisher, Gov, Dow, Hewett/Kennedy.

2023 F1 - 4-8
2024 F1 - 10-15
TDK Trade - 15-20
Fisher Trade - 40-50
Gov Trade - 30-40
Dow Trade - 40-50
Hewett/Kennedy Trade - 20-30

Hope we'd be able to combine all of that to get something like 5, 10, 15, 30. Give or take a few picks either way.

Then we go 1 of 4 ways depending on who's available with our first selection which probably dictates the rest of our choices afterwards.

5 - Colby Mckercher (Balanced Mid)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Jack Delean (Small Fwd)
30 - Ollie Murphy (KPD)

5 - Nate Caddy (KPF/3rd Tall)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Will Lorenz (Balanced Mid)
30 - Jack Callinan (Small Fwd/HHF)

5 - Nick Watson (Small Fwd)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Will Lorenz (Balanced Mid)
30 - Ollie Murphy (KPD)

5 - Zane Duursma (Inside Mid/Fwd)
10 - Darcy Wilson (Outside Mid/Fwd)
15 - Connor O'Sullivan (KPD)
30 - Jack Callinan (Small Fwd/HHF)

I'm still not sure what the best option would be... I'd like us to have a crack at Ben Mckay more than Gresham to allow us to use Young as a backup Ruck/Fwd if TDK was to leave

I'd rather keep Dow and Gov on a reduced wage than a pick in the 40-50s... Both proving good cover atm...
 

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If Caddy is gone at our pick, then Id go this young fella for sure.

Sometimes you fall in love with draft prospects because you can readily see what they could become under the right coaching.

Moir is one of my favorites in this class for that reason. Ivan see him becoming an elite athlete for the modern game. String as an ox by body but agile and quick as a cat.

There's an enormous amount to work with there.hkwever, we don't have the history of really transforming players physically that other clubs do. Would love to be proven wrong at some stage but he's the type that in the right hands will easily outperform his draft ranking.

Has the tricks if the right club gets him.
 
WA V SA 3/4 time WA getting the better if it.

Tholstrup the star of the show working wing/half forward hybrid role.

Edwards, Curtin, Hardeman, Hall and SA’s Patton maintaining their high status.

WA second ruck Livingstone capable on ball and very dangerous forward with multiple goals.

Sanchez and O’Driscoll showing athleticism, skill and superb pressure as forward options.

Moir injured, Delean unable to get in to goal.

Couple of others draftworthy, but that is most of it.
 
WA V SA 3/4 time WA getting the better if it.

Tholstrup the star of the show working wing/half forward hybrid role.

Edwards, Curtin, Hardeman, Hall and SA’s Patton maintaining their high status.

WA second ruck Livingstone capable on ball and very dangerous forward with multiple goals.

Sanchez and O’Driscoll showing athleticism, skill and superb pressure as forward options.

Moir injured, Delean unable to get in to goal.

Couple of others draftworthy, but that is most of it.
Edwards big mark and goal. Delean late consolation. Moir back on. Sanchez and O’Driscoll superb forward craft.
Curtin playing MIDFIELD among the best despite seemingly tall defender first.
 
Van Rooyen the younger tracking similar to big bro. Slow burn, but enough highlights to excite recruiters.

Hall finished the game as BOG. Balanced mid without any apparent weakness, will be vying for Top 10 if he can maintain the form.

Edit: Well that wasn’t exactly an earth shattering post for #5000.
 
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I didn't catch all of the game due to a hand injury at my own football today but 2nd half Clay Hall's ball use was outstanding. Low 40m darts hitting targets inside 50, was great.

Curtin in the middle was interesting, still don't think it's a worthwhile shift, he's just big and tackles well in there but can't really burst out of stoppages or provide much point of difference. I prefer him intercepting down back where he's got more time to use his kicking skills.

And I liked Tholstrups game, **** haircut and an ugly mug but he has impact on games. Powerful runner.
 

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Harley Reid and Nick Watson would be the only two players imo from games and footage I’ve watched so far this season that would make last years top 10…
In what was predicted as a boom draft leading into the year it’s turned out to be by my eye so far as one of the more overrated drafts so far with all of the preseason hype…

Cadman
Ashcroft (f/s)
Sheezel
Wardlaw
Humphrey
McKenzie
Clarke
Gibney
Phillipou
Fletcher (f/s)
George
Jefferson


Are all players i highly rated last year and would be comfortably in front of the next batch ive watched over so far from this current drat year, doesn’t have the overall class or xfactor as last year, a few question marks on many of this years “top end talents” ….

Keep DeKoning
Keep 2023 draft first pick maybe split depending on finishing position
Keep our future first
Trade in 2025 picks for Campo twins
Trade in our future 2024 2nd/3rd rounders
Cincotta main list 👍
Ramshaw & Dozzi must be listed, best young talent we’ve produced since recruit from within 👍
Trade out Fisher & Silvagni
McGovern $Contract/ trade value
Get in a couple of young positional requirement players from other club lists for early 2nd/ 3rd rounders
Keep Dow

Cunners certainly keep if he doesn’t break down again this season
Martin contracted another year needs to not break down once again…

1. Silvagni - up for trade
2. O’Brien - delist
3. Fogarty - delist
5. McGovern - trade?
6. Carroll - up for trade
7. Plowman - delist
8. Marchbank - delist
9. Fisher - up for trade
10. Philp - delist
11. Ed Curnow - retired/reserves captain
12. Mirkov - delist







No
 
I don’t know what people mean when they this. TDK is out of contract, we don’t hold much leverage.
Pretty certain like most deals, it has to be mutually beneficial to both parties, as we have seen for a significant period now in the trade period.
Agree no benefit for us to lose TDK for less than a 1st round pick.
 
Pretty certain like most deals, it has to be mutually beneficial to both parties, as we have seen for a significant period now in the trade period.
Agree no benefit for us to lose TDK for less than a 1st round pick.

No benefit to us and I hope he stays, but if all that’s offered is say pick 25, what then? Lose him for nothing to make a point?

I do t think it will get to that but I don’t see him requesting a trade and then re-signing if we don’t get a good enough pick
 
No benefit to us and I hope he stays, but if all that’s offered is say pick 25, what then? Lose him for nothing to make a point?

I do t think it will get to that but I don’t see him requesting a trade and then re-signing if we don’t get a good enough pick
Geelong the most likely club have a pick likely 10-14, if they want him they are going to give us their 1st round otherwise we won't let him go eg same as Daniher some years ago to Sydney.

l also hope he stays, hoping we can trade next year's 1st to address some list needs now.
 
Geelong the most likely club have a pick likely 10-14, if they want him they are going to give us their 1st round otherwise we won't let him go eg same as Daniher some years ago to Sydney.

l also hope he stays, hoping we can trade next year's 1st to address some list needs now.

It’s not the same as Daniher to Sydney, he wasn’t out of contract so Essendon could dictate terms.

TDK is out of contract
 
We see things quite differently. Won’t get in to a tit for tat debate.

Curtain will play AFL year 1, he is as much ball player as KPD, think Weitering with “wheels”. (Third tall releasing Kemp up the ground would suit me.) Edwards will be much quicker than you are suggesting, he has forward capability as well, making for easier integration, is the best ruck prospect for many years and could conceivably be incorporated as early as year 1, if drafted to a needy team. Will be “capable” in two to three years. Will absolutely be a slow burn to reach the peak of his powers, but will get plenty of games year 2 latest.

Sanders is a much more bankable prospect than McKercher and is the type to adapt to multiple positions if needed. I am astounded that you are knocking his ball use while elevating McKercher. I may have a little bias as Sanders’ grandfather was a star of “my era” and I have watched plenty from afar, keeps stepping up. If McKercher miraculously gets over his ball butchering, I would be happy to revisit. He absolutely has “the moves”. I am Tasmanian originally and as an old left footer, love seeing the point of difference. I would love to “support” McKercher, but our club needs good users before anything else, and he just ain’t it. He has and will turn heads, but how many clubs tolerate poor kicking from high possession players?
Good user, always has been, but not bursting with speed, which I think the club wants?
 

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