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List Mgmt. 2023 List Management thread

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Mod notice after Mr Bob did a lot of annoying work in moving days of posts out of here. As we are heading into offseason, this thread is for 2023 list management only. Getting upset on previous trades can be taken to the vent thread. Lets keep this thread on track in the part of the year it's actually relevant
 
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Snuffaluphagus said:
No, basically, per Dockeroo who looked it up, in the last decade a team's list has changed by only 5 players only 3 times. It has never been less than 5 (And this makes sense if you think about player movement each year). The delistings / re-roookieings are not included in this
Click to expand...
Not sure I'd be saying won't happen just cause it hasn't before. We have an unusual list profile and after massive turn over last year, we may just set a new record for low turnover.

I wouldn't mind it, gives the group stability.
 
mattis117 said:
Not sure I'd be saying won't happen just cause it hasn't before. We have an unusual list profile and after massive turn over last year, we may just set a new record for low turnover.

I wouldn't mind it, gives the group stability.
Click to expand...
This.

I get the stats about the long term AFL averages re list turnover, but who cares.

I hope like **** the club chooses the list they want, rather than worrying about what's expected due to what usually happens.
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
This year? They seem to bring in 9 players. Some of those I assume is recycling players already on their list but there's no way they only lost 4 players from their list in 2015
View attachment 1761807
Click to expand...

That's right, they took four players in the draft and used the list management of trade/FA to balance the rest.

Last year we lost a lot of players, with our eventual delistings being from a group who mostly were cut the year before to spend a year on the rookie list.

We've culled arguably the 2023 numbers in 2022.
 
mattis117 said:
Not sure I'd be saying won't happen just cause it hasn't before. We have an unusual list profile and after massive turn over last year, we may just set a new record for low turnover.

I wouldn't mind it, gives the group stability.
Click to expand...
I'd agree if a turnover of 5 wasnt so rare as it was. Seems even 5 is pushing the envelope.
GingerDocker said:
This.

I get the stats about the long term AFL averages re list turnover, but who cares.

I hope like * the club chooses the list they want, rather than worrying about what's expected due to what usually happens.
Click to expand...

There will be a reason for this that we arent aware of. It wont be based on what everyone else does but a combination of monetary. statistical based and longer term list health thing that means clubs are very averse to only turning over so few players.

Ironically given list managers really rarely get to be in a position to see their list build come through, they think significantly more long term than BF posters who basically only give a shit about next year.

Taylor said:
That's right, they took four players in the draft and used the list management of trade/FA to balance the rest.

Last year we lost a lot of players, with our eventual delistings being from a group who mostly were cut the year before to spend a year on the rookie list.

We've culled arguably the 2023 numbers in 2022.
Click to expand...
Yes, so they lost more than 5 players from their list in 2015. Still doesnt address the historical trend which is ridiculously strong. Out of 180 chances across a multitude of significantly different scenarios and situations, only 3 times has a club lost only 5 players from the year before. Losing only 4 would be an unbelievably extreme outlier.
 

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Snuffaluphagus said:
Again, same thing, according to Dockeroo, no club has turned over less than 5 players in a decade (and that only happened 3 times) even though they only need 3 at the draft (and they can do those picks however they want). On history (Unlike Super funds, I think past performance is a reliable indicator of future performance), people need to pick at least 5 players not to be at the club next year.
Click to expand...
Two things:

1. Dockeroo 's analysis is helpful, but would be even more enlightening if it also analysed in terms of a distinction between forced and unforced changes (i.e. how many list changes were forced by players due to retirements, trade requests, etc.? ). At this stage we're still arguing as though there will be no forced (or only 1) changes.

2. History may very well be a reliable indicator, but it is not an iron law. Sure, list management can and should be guided by generally established and widely respected principles, but dogmatic adherence to principle rarely goes down well. If the case is unique (e.g. successive years of list upheaval, young list, reasonably well balanced, current occ players better than expected potential and upside of prospective draftees available at current draft picks, etc., etc.), I would hope that list management would be prepared at least to give some consideration to suspending the principle on that occasion.

None of that is to say that I have a position one way or the other on the question of Hamling.
 
ignoramus said:
Two things:

1. Dockeroo 's analysis is helpful, but would be even more enlightening if it also analysed in terms of a distinction between forced and unforced changes (i.e. how many list changes were forced by players due to retirements, trade requests, etc.? ). At this stage we're still arguing as though there will be no forced (or only 1) changes.

2. History may very well be a reliable indicator, but it is not an iron law. Sure, list management can and should be guided by generally established and widely respected principles, but dogmatic adherence to principle rarely goes down well. If the case is unique (e.g. successive years of list upheaval, young list, reasonably well balanced, current occ players better than expected potential and upside of prospective draftees available at current draft picks, etc., etc.), I would hope that list management would be prepared at least to give some consideration to suspending the principle on that occasion.

None of that is to say that I have a position one way or the other on the question of Hamling.
Click to expand...
I took a quick squizz at the historical players in on draft.guru and at the very least, I didnt see many situations where there was even a possibilty less than 5 players moved.

Your points are sound and my response would be the same as above. No one on here understands list management like AFL clubs do. There is a reason, and it doesnt have to be the number itself, that this trend exists. I'm not suggesting that the club would see us potentially turning over only 4 players and go "no way, find someone else so we get it to an arbitrary number", but things influencing decision making that make the historical number so strong.

People on BF dont not have half the picture and like I said, we all think basically exclusively in this year or next for decision making. This is not at you but a disclaimer for when the club makes me look like a dickhead; I see the value in keeping Hamling, I'm ok keeping Hamling, I'm not advocating getting rid of Hamling I'm just getting everyone to get used to the idea that short of losing a contracted player, it is the most likely outcome by a long way
 

Fremantle Dockers: Defender Hayden Young’s midfield move against Geelong could be a nod to the future​

Rebounding defender or big-bodied midfielder? Hayden Young could be both for Fremantle, writes ELIZA REILLY.


3 min read
August 1, 2023 - 2:00PM
[PLAYERCARD]Hayden Young[/PLAYERCARD]’’s move to the midfield against Geelong could be a nod to the future. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Hayden Young’’s move to the midfield against Geelong could be a nod to the future. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Rebounding defender or big-bodied midfielder?
Hayden Young could be both to Fremantle.

By any measure, 2023 has been a dour season for the Dockers but, amid the frustration, they might have found a Swiss Army knife to serve them well into the future.
We know what Young can do in defence. This season, his first in Fremantle’s leadership group, Young is going at an average of 22.1 disposals, 1.7 intercept marks, 4.7 rebound 50s and 491.2 metres gained. They’re career high numbers.
But on Saturday against Geelong, the 22-year-old tackled a completely foreign assignment.
Instead of lining up in defence, he started in the midfield, on Brownlow medallist Patrick Dangerfield of all players.
Young had an excellent game against the Cats. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Young had an excellent game against the Cats. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

In the 70 minutes the pair were matched up, Young not only went head-to-head with the Cats’ captain, but arguably took the honours. Young finished with 19 disposals, seven of which were contested, and three clearances. While Dangerfield had 16 touches, eight contested, and three clearances.
Young is the perfect mix of defence and attack down back. And those traits were on display around the ground. At one stoppage on the wing, Young slipped out the back of Dangerfield, received a handball in space, and stepped around a Geelong player before sending the ball forward with his powerful left boot.
Fremantle used Young at 52 per cent of centre bounces. Only Caleb Serong (83 per cent) and Andrew Brayshaw (87 per cent) featured more often. But Young outclassed both permanent midfielders when he cut through heavy traffic in the centre square, won the football on the bounce and delivered inside 50.
Elite ball skills? Strength? Awareness?
It may sound familiar.
Jordan Dawson has been the prototype when it comes to half-backs moving on-ball this season. The Crows captain has been a revelation, averaging 28.1 disposals and 521.5 metres gained. Two centimetres, a few kilograms and 52 games separate the pair so it’s tantalising to think what Young could become should Fremantle persist with the move.

And there’s no reason why the Dockers shouldn’t.
At least for the final month of the season.
Fremantle’s midfield, when it underperforms, has been one of its glaring weaknesses this season. Young gives the Dockers another big body but also someone they can isolate to deliver cleanly in congestion. Think David Mundy and the connection he had with Fremantle’s forward line, a trait Fremantle have dearly missed this season.
“I think this slipped under the radar from the game was the decision to put Hayden Young as a tagger on Patrick Dangerfield,” Fox Footy expert Leigh Montagna told First Crack.
“I like that Justin Longmuir tried something different. It’s been an issue for Fremantle, the midfield stuff, the contested ball. He’s a beautiful kick so why not have a look at it and unearth what they already have on their list and play some players in different positions.
“Next year, there’s still plenty they can learn and maybe they have unearthed something? I want to see them continue to go with it.”

Fremantle flirted with the move earlier this season but couldn’t persist in the circumstances. In the dying stages of the Dockers loss to Greater Western Sydney, Young attended four centre bounces in the fourth quarter and won the final centre bounce clearance of the game.
Back then, Fremantle’s finals hopes were still alive and Heath Chapman was still injured. Now, Corey Wagner has shown immense attacking potential at half-back, Karl Worner forced his way into the team on the back of sustained form at Peel Thunder and Jordan Clark is also an option.

Coach Justin Longmuir has already indicated he sees a future for Young in the midfield.
“Him (Chapman) and Youngy, we think in the future, will work their way up the ground a little bit,” Longmuir told the ABC before playing the Giants. “At the moment, Clarky and Youngy are doing great jobs in their roles for us down back in a pretty well functioning backline.”
Fremantle could do worse than make the future the present
 
Player movement has increased a lot that adds to the average changes. Whether it’s for game opportunities, money or just location, it’s very hard to not upset a player or two every year.

I recon there is no way we keep everyone this trade period and just change who ever we want to delist.
 
ignoramus said:
1. @Dockeroo 's analysis is helpful, but would be even more enlightening if it also analysed in terms of a distinction between forced and unforced changes (i.e. how many list changes were forced by players due to retirements, trade requests, etc.? ). At this stage we're still arguing as though there will be no forced (or only 1) changes.
Click to expand...

This data is available. Just give me a minute.
 
greatgatsby said:

Fremantle Dockers: Defender Hayden Young’s midfield move against Geelong could be a nod to the future​

Rebounding defender or big-bodied midfielder? Hayden Young could be both for Fremantle, writes ELIZA REILLY.


3 min read
August 1, 2023 - 2:00PM
Hayden Young’’s move to the midfield against Geelong could be a nod to the future. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Hayden Young’’s move to the midfield against Geelong could be a nod to the future. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Rebounding defender or big-bodied midfielder?
Hayden Young could be both to Fremantle.

By any measure, 2023 has been a dour season for the Dockers but, amid the frustration, they might have found a Swiss Army knife to serve them well into the future.
We know what Young can do in defence. This season, his first in Fremantle’s leadership group, Young is going at an average of 22.1 disposals, 1.7 intercept marks, 4.7 rebound 50s and 491.2 metres gained. They’re career high numbers.
But on Saturday against Geelong, the 22-year-old tackled a completely foreign assignment.
Instead of lining up in defence, he started in the midfield, on Brownlow medallist Patrick Dangerfield of all players.
Young had an excellent game against the Cats. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Young had an excellent game against the Cats. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

In the 70 minutes the pair were matched up, Young not only went head-to-head with the Cats’ captain, but arguably took the honours. Young finished with 19 disposals, seven of which were contested, and three clearances. While Dangerfield had 16 touches, eight contested, and three clearances.
Young is the perfect mix of defence and attack down back. And those traits were on display around the ground. At one stoppage on the wing, Young slipped out the back of Dangerfield, received a handball in space, and stepped around a Geelong player before sending the ball forward with his powerful left boot.
Fremantle used Young at 52 per cent of centre bounces. Only Caleb Serong (83 per cent) and Andrew Brayshaw (87 per cent) featured more often. But Young outclassed both permanent midfielders when he cut through heavy traffic in the centre square, won the football on the bounce and delivered inside 50.
Elite ball skills? Strength? Awareness?
It may sound familiar.
Jordan Dawson has been the prototype when it comes to half-backs moving on-ball this season. The Crows captain has been a revelation, averaging 28.1 disposals and 521.5 metres gained. Two centimetres, a few kilograms and 52 games separate the pair so it’s tantalising to think what Young could become should Fremantle persist with the move.

And there’s no reason why the Dockers shouldn’t.
At least for the final month of the season.
Fremantle’s midfield, when it underperforms, has been one of its glaring weaknesses this season. Young gives the Dockers another big body but also someone they can isolate to deliver cleanly in congestion. Think David Mundy and the connection he had with Fremantle’s forward line, a trait Fremantle have dearly missed this season.
“I think this slipped under the radar from the game was the decision to put Hayden Young as a tagger on Patrick Dangerfield,” Fox Footy expert Leigh Montagna told First Crack.
“I like that Justin Longmuir tried something different. It’s been an issue for Fremantle, the midfield stuff, the contested ball. He’s a beautiful kick so why not have a look at it and unearth what they already have on their list and play some players in different positions.
“Next year, there’s still plenty they can learn and maybe they have unearthed something? I want to see them continue to go with it.”

Fremantle flirted with the move earlier this season but couldn’t persist in the circumstances. In the dying stages of the Dockers loss to Greater Western Sydney, Young attended four centre bounces in the fourth quarter and won the final centre bounce clearance of the game.
Back then, Fremantle’s finals hopes were still alive and Heath Chapman was still injured. Now, Corey Wagner has shown immense attacking potential at half-back, Karl Worner forced his way into the team on the back of sustained form at Peel Thunder and Jordan Clark is also an option.

Coach Justin Longmuir has already indicated he sees a future for Young in the midfield.
“Him (Chapman) and Youngy, we think in the future, will work their way up the ground a little bit,” Longmuir told the ABC before playing the Giants. “At the moment, Clarky and Youngy are doing great jobs in their roles for us down back in a pretty well functioning backline.”
Fremantle could do worse than make the future the present
Click to expand...
THIS creates another list management discussion. If Young is now a midfielder, how many more skinny back flankers can we find this year and where does that leave the other young midfielders in the squad...
 
An interesting year for Freo was 2012 where we had one retirement, one trade and then the delisting of Gavin Roberts, Jay Van Berlo and Jordan Wilson King.

The year before we made the grand final..
 

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Snuffaluphagus said:
I took a quick squizz at the historical players in on draft.guru and at the very least, I didnt see many situations where there was even a possibilty less than 5 players moved.
Click to expand...

My data starts at 2012 and Adelaide, first on the list, moved 4 players with one retiring and one as a free agent leaving.
 
Taylor said:
My data starts at 2012 and Adelaide, first on the list, moved 4 players with one retiring and one as a free agent leaving.
Click to expand...
The circumstances of leaving are irrelevant IMO but if Dockeroo has lied to me and there are multiple instances of a club only losing 4 players from the year before he's getting board banned
 
Taylor said:
My data starts at 2012 and Adelaide, first on the list, moved 4 players with one retiring and one as a free agent leaving.
Click to expand...
In fact, if I go by this article (Full AFL list changes), there are multiple instances of 3 or 4 changes just in 2012. It was nice knowing you Dockeroo, see you round

edit: Nevermind, this reference is irrelevant and appears to be wrong
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
In fact, if I go by this article (Full AFL list changes), there are multiple instances of 3 or 4 changes just in 2012. It was nice knowing you Dockeroo, see you round

edit: Nevermind, this reference is irrelevant and appears to be wrong
Click to expand...
Dockeroo is un-board banned because his decade (going back to 2013) remains accurate going off this (Retirements, delistings, trades - AFL.com.au). Adelaide appear to have only made 4 changes in 2012 though I think that might have an asterisk next to it because Kurt Tippet wasnt really on their list (but was really) and so it was weird. Further investigations are required
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
In fact, if I go by this article (Full AFL list changes), there are multiple instances of 3 or 4 changes just in 2012. It was nice knowing you Dockeroo, see you round

edit: Nevermind, this reference is irrelevant and appears to be wrong
Click to expand...

I've only got 2012 and 2013 on the spreadsheet so far but it's looking like we should expect some players traded out, if not a free agent walking.

Which could be all of Hamling, Henry, Schultz.
 

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Taylor said:
I've only got 2012 and 2013 on the spreadsheet so far but it's looking like we should expect some players traded out, if not a free agent walking.

Which could be all of Hamling, Henry, Schultz.
Click to expand...
Really? Because from what I linked, 2013 has lots of instances of a club not trading out (or losing to FA) any players
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
Really? Because from what I linked, 2013 has lots of instances of a club not trading out (or losing to FA) any players
Click to expand...

It looked to me from 2012 and 2013 that the numbers weren't all that high in clubs that were reasonably performing when you remove the trade, free agency and retirements - which feels right.

I'm not going to finish this project. I think there is a value in pumping the data into a predictive algorithm if you also give it data on team performance for the year prior and the year ahead to see but I am expecting it to show that clubs with lots of older players tend to have more retirements, clubs that are doing well have less list changes and it gets progressively less changes as they are younger and I also expect sustained periods of bulk changes to be the highest indicator of future changes coming (failed rebuilds).

But, I don't have the time for this this week, nor do I think it would be interesting for people to see.
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
Dockeroo is un-board banned because his decade (going back to 2013) remains accurate going off this (Retirements, delistings, trades - AFL.com.au). Adelaide appear to have only made 4 changes in 2012 though I think that might have an asterisk next to it because Kurt Tippet wasnt really on their list (but was really) and so it was weird. Further investigations are required
Click to expand...
Tippett couldn't be replaced so it's definitely only 4

Now we have proof that it's been done before, there is a chance that it only happens every 1 in 10 years or so

I still think hamling goes
 
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