Preview 2023 Round 22 – Port Adelaide vs GWS Giants, Sunday August 13, 4.40pm AEST, Adelaide Oval

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Sep 6, 2012
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A disappointing night for us at Giants Stadium, but in the end, not that surprising. The Swans have pretty much had the wood on us for the past few years; our last four wins against them have been by only one or two points. Our luck ran out last night.

I thought during the first quarter we weren’t “on”. They moved the ball forward with laser-like precision and their accuracy in front of goal was incredible. In fact, the half-time return of eleven goals and no behinds was their most accurate ever, including the entire South Melbourne era. I always thought that provocative match preview would come back to haunt us!

As Kingsley said in the presser, for them to set up ten of those eleven first half goals from defensive 50 was extraordinary. That was supposed to be our strength. Still, we didn’t give in and stuck to the game plan. Maybe the late withdrawal of Callaghan due to a niggling calf problem threw us off-balance.

Now for next Sunday. Port is another team who’ve had the wood on us for the past few years. Early-season front-runners, they’ve lost their last four matches, having their bubble well and truly burst by Carlton back in Round 18. Their top 2 spot is now very much up for grabs and it’s not impossible, if unlikely, for them to fall out of the top 4 altogether if they keep losing. They just need one more win to secure the coveted double-chance.

We have eight days to recover, so let’s see how we might line up:

FB Buckley, Taylor, Idun
HB Ash, Himmelberg, Whitfield
C Kelly, Callaghan, Green
HF Lloyd, Cadman, Bedford
FF Brown, Hogan, Greene

FOL Briggs, Perryman, Coniglio
IC Ward, Riccardi, Cumming, Haynes

Sub: Angwin

In: Cadman, Callaghan
Out: Daniels (suspension), Keeffe (omitted)

Daniels is out for sure for that clumsy head-high bump on Jake Lloyd, probably for a couple of weeks. Brown can take his place. Despite his goal, Riccardi was subbed out, presumably for being ineffective, so I would start him off the bench. Keeffe didn’t do that much. Cadman kicked three goals in the VFL team that was thrashed by the Swans at BISP yesterday, and will probably get a recall. I would retain Haynes and use Angwin as the sub. And, fingers crossed, Callaghan will be right.

The seven-game winning streak has come to an end, but if we’re honest, we all knew it could not go on forever. Our destiny is still in our own hands. Win at least two of the next three games and we play finals. Win against Port, we have one foot in the door.

Our record in Adelaide has been pretty good recently. Can we prevail and make it five losses in a row for the Power?
 
It’s going to be hard against Port as they will be hurting after losing narrowly to Geelong last night. They will be desperate to stop their 4 consecutive losses (after having a club record 13 consecutive wins!), and Hinkley will be extra motivated with rumours of contract extension negotiations happening. We also have lost our last 3 matches to Port, with our most recent win in July 2019. The market has us as distinct underdogs at $2.86 (port are $1.43). However, we have the team and the coach to win, and agree that a win will almost certainly see us very favourably placed to be playing finals this year.
 
The market has us as distinct underdogs at $2.86 (port are $1.43).
Agree with most of what you said though I tend to just disregard the market in most instances when I have compelling reasoning to do so. I mean, I'd question why the market is currently favouring PA? Is it cause they're higher up the ladder than us ? If so, then fair enough but I don't know about going off that alone when they've lost 4 games straight.

I haven't really seen the market move in instances when things have changed in our or any other teams favour for that matter.

I find posters on here tend to make better assessments which I find is more closer to the mark and have guided a lot of my feel for the game which has helped me understand the game and mentally prepare 😁🤣

Though, I guess the market won't account for upset games which I suppose makes things interesting.
 

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View attachment 1766299View attachment 1766300

For those interested, the two charts above display the expected score for each shot take by both teams and The expected score for the match.

Swans were on fire kicking well above expectations.
Thanks, after that 11.0 start I was casting my mind to this and thought it was going to be brutally against us - and that we may well be ahead on it.
 
Continuing to select Keeffe has me scratching my head. He's so immobile, and can't take any marks - apart from a few hitouts as second ruck, what does he bring to the gameplan? And if it's just the hitouts, why wouldn't we use Flynn - who can take a mark in F50, even if he's not the most mobile, and can take more of the ruck work and give Briggs a chance in F50, who can also mark and kick (a bit)?

I continue to strongly believe that we should give Derksen a go - if we're not getting a lot of Cadman, Riccardi and Keeffe, why not see what he can do? I still think between he, Ricca and Brown we can cover the second ruck role OK.

It's just a bit bizarre to me that Kingsley seems to have locked in a couple of prejudices for/against, rather than seeing what everyone can do. This year is very much a free hit to determine where all the players are at, IMHO.

And no offence meant to Nick Haynes, but he has his 200th game, and if he doesn't fit a natural position, we need to put someone in who works with the gameplan.

So, I'd like to see Wade Derksen for Keeffe, and if Callaghan is OK to play and Binga gets rubbed out, probably that swap might be sufficient. Maybe Ryan Angwin for Nick Haynes if that works better for the team dynamics, although I'm certainly not hardover on that.
 
View attachment 1766299View attachment 1766300

For those interested, the two charts above display the expected score for each shot take by both teams and The expected score for the match.

Swans were on fire kicking well above expectations.
Thanks for these graphs. I haven't seen them before.

The one for GWS Win Chance % in Round 7 at the SCG must have gone up like a rocket in the last half of Q4, especially the last minute.
 
Continuing to select Keeffe has me scratching my head. He's so immobile, and can't take any marks - apart from a few hitouts as second ruck, what does he bring to the gameplan? And if it's just the hitouts, why wouldn't we use Flynn - who can take a mark in F50, even if he's not the most mobile, and can take more of the ruck work and give Briggs a chance in F50, who can also mark and kick (a bit)?

I continue to strongly believe that we should give Derksen a go - if we're not getting a lot of Cadman, Riccardi and Keeffe, why not see what he can do? I still think between he, Ricca and Brown we can cover the second ruck role OK.

It's just a bit bizarre to me that Kingsley seems to have locked in a couple of prejudices for/against, rather than seeing what everyone can do. This year is very much a free hit to determine where all the players are at, IMHO.

And no offence meant to Nick Haynes, but he has his 200th game, and if he doesn't fit a natural position, we need to put someone in who works with the gameplan.

So, I'd like to see Wade Derksen for Keeffe, and if Callaghan is OK to play and Binga gets rubbed out, probably that swap might be sufficient. Maybe Ryan Angwin for Nick Haynes if that works better for the team dynamics, although I'm certainly not hardover on that.
I think the problem is Jason McCartneys influence. I might be wrong though about his impact on selections.
 
Thanks for these graphs. I haven't seen them before.

The one for GWS Win Chance % in Round 7 at the SCG must have gone up like a rocket in the last half of Q4, especially the last minute.
More than welcome, as with all stats work it’s important to keep a few things in mind (not attempting to be condescending or anything just putting some info in for the board)

Most important to remember when dealing with xscore and expected win% is they are both historical stats, they both only calculate the historical percentage of goals scored or games won for similar positions and game situations.

Secondly for xscore in particular because each team only gets 20-30 scoring shots per game on average, it is very possible to kick above average for a game. It is only of the course of a full season that we expect teams to kick to historical league averages.

I’ll see if I can find the graphs for the Sydney game at the scg from earlier in the season.
 
Feels like Port conceded defeat vs the Cats. They had a number of players out (concussion, minor niggles) plus late outs with illness. So they’ll get these big names back and be recharged, ready to go. Would of been ideal playing them yesterday.
Anyways our destiny is in our own hands. Good record at Adelaide oval, Ports lost 4 in a row, so we could steal this one.

Will we rest up Briggsy. He was pretty good last night but has slowly had his form pegged back.

Issues we need to fix ASAP:
  • Oppositions ability to score from our forward 50. Got carved up here from most swans goals + other games
  • Fed 50 entries/ decisions and skill execution
  • Set shot goal kicking

Effort, Pressure and tackling been fantastic! God I love Toby Bedford!!! Our best ever signing IMO.


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Continuing to select Keeffe has me scratching my head. He's so immobile, and can't take any marks - apart from a few hitouts as second ruck, what does he bring to the gameplan? And if it's just the hitouts, why wouldn't we use Flynn - who can take a mark in F50, even if he's not the most mobile, and can take more of the ruck work and give Briggs a chance in F50, who can also mark and kick (a bit)?

I continue to strongly believe that we should give Derksen a go - if we're not getting a lot of Cadman, Riccardi and Keeffe, why not see what he can do? I still think between he, Ricca and Brown we can cover the second ruck role OK.

It's just a bit bizarre to me that Kingsley seems to have locked in a couple of prejudices for/against, rather than seeing what everyone can do. This year is very much a free hit to determine where all the players are at, IMHO.

And no offence meant to Nick Haynes, but he has his 200th game, and if he doesn't fit a natural position, we need to put someone in who works with the gameplan.

So, I'd like to see Wade Derksen for Keeffe, and if Callaghan is OK to play and Binga gets rubbed out, probably that swap might be sufficient. Maybe Ryan Angwin for Nick Haynes if that works better for the team dynamics, although I'm certainly not hardover on that.
Completely Agree. Derksen should be given a chance and debut and if we need Keefe, then have Flynn - this may even convince him to stay as Flynn’s contract expires this year. Also no issue with Hayne’s as a sub, now that he has had his 200th.
 

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Continuing to select Keeffe has me scratching my head. He's so immobile, and can't take any marks - apart from a few hitouts as second ruck, what does he bring to the gameplan? And if it's just the hitouts, why wouldn't we use Flynn - who can take a mark in F50, even if he's not the most mobile, and can take more of the ruck work and give Briggs a chance in F50, who can also mark and kick (a bit)?

I continue to strongly believe that we should give Derksen a go - if we're not getting a lot of Cadman, Riccardi and Keeffe, why not see what he can do? I still think between he, Ricca and Brown we can cover the second ruck role OK.

It's just a bit bizarre to me that Kingsley seems to have locked in a couple of prejudices for/against, rather than seeing what everyone can do. This year is very much a free hit to determine where all the players are at, IMHO.

And no offence meant to Nick Haynes, but he has his 200th game, and if he doesn't fit a natural position, we need to put someone in who works with the gameplan.

So, I'd like to see Wade Derksen for Keeffe, and if Callaghan is OK to play and Binga gets rubbed out, probably that swap might be sufficient. Maybe Ryan Angwin for Nick Haynes if that works better for the team dynamics, although I'm certainly not hardover on that.
Has Derkson been playing much up forward this year? From my brief peruse on google he seems to get a decent amount of time in the midfield/on the wing? I haven’t been to any vfl games this year so if you’ve had eyes on him I’d defer to you.
 
Has Derkson been playing much up forward this year? From my brief peruse on google he seems to get a decent amount of time in the midfield/on the wing? I haven’t been to any vfl games this year so if you’ve had eyes on him I’d defer to you.
Are you mixing up Rowston for Derksen?
Rowston is the midfielder and Derksen is the KPF and plays most of game in the fwd 50.
 
Yep, Derksen definitely playing forward. Had some time playing ruck at one stage.
I have been misled by the vfl stats page. He can’t be a worse option than ricardi who really hasn’t shown much promise and is rated pretty low for useful forward 50 targets (combined marks I50 , contested marks I50, and taps to advantage from one on one contests)
 
I reckon we give a few a rest this week and then load up for the 2 weeks against Essendon and Carlton. If we are good enough we get a weeks rest after that.
Bedford and Daniels already out… thoughts?
 
Spanner thrown....

Daniels AND Bedford offered a week for rough conduct.

Two very similar players will be hard to replace.

Edit: slow typer, already posted
 
We lost BOTH Daniels and Bedford for a week due to the MRO suspension? The already hard game against Port in Adelaide just got harder 😡
 
Under the current rules there's no point challenging the penalties.
They are pretty much impossible to replace. Maybe Stone gets another opportunity and Fahey seems to be a favourite.
 
Under the current rules there's no point challenging the penalties.
They are pretty much impossible to replace. Maybe Stone gets another opportunity and Fahey seems to be a favourite.
Bedford might be arguable (but unlikely), Daniels has no hope unfortunately.

I’m just happy that Toby didn’t get anything after the swans fans have spent the last day whining about his “grubbiness” 🙄
 
Probably Callaghan for one, and shuffle roles around. Perhaps Peatling for the other - but he loses out in speed. Perhaps Fahey or Wehr get a change in role. The final option would be a debut for Toby McMullin, depending on how the coaches see his progress in VFL.
 

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