Prediction 2024 - Best 23 + Emergencies - Rolling

[Lukeblueboy]

The two practice matches will be fascinating watching regarding who steps up to secure there spots for round zero. Very exciting with so many vying for similar positions

 

[gbatman]

Owies is likely up against it, but not sure if I would put Cunners in the group in front of him.

I am waiting to see if Fantasia being recruited trumpets a lack of confidence in the output of our mature small forward options. With Hollands traded in and Moir drafted as well, we surely have the desire to “upgrade” our forward half.

I think it's an opportunity to get a potential upgrade on what you have for free. Upgrading on good players in your team is how you win flags. It's something we have failed to do in previous rebuilds. It also creates an excess of good players in one area which creates trade currency.

We get to the end of 2024 and decide we need a ruck or a top line mid to win a flag and we can start trading. In the past we haven't had the depth to but now we do.

 

[Earls Smother]

Maybe for the first two rounds. Elijah Hollands is a shiny new toy and a genuine hybrid who can play 60/40 forward/mid.
Our options are almost criminal.

I have been a Kennedy fan since before his draft. So very rapt when we acquired him. He has struggled for continuity and has also had some unwarranted negative bias particularly during the Teague years. Spent some time in the twos when a senior berth was warranted.

Think he somewhat learned to “coast” at 80-90% effort (like many others). Not conscious slacking, but a lack of awareness of the importance of that few percent extra. His best is irrepressible, not just as a mid. Brings so much with his marking prowess around the ground. An excellent kick, including in front of the big sticks, Chugga just adds dimensions, while bringing as much to the “coalface” as most or all of his team mates. Intelligent and a willing “one percenter” willing and able to block for his mates. His ground coverage is undersold by many. He presents better defensively than Hewett and his skipper.

George is the ultimate competitor. I don’t think anyone would accuse him of not putting in each week. Lacking the ability to cover big kilometres and focussed his efforts around the contest. His biggest weakness is his limited spread, which exacerbates defensively. His work in close is a thing of “beauty”, but does it offer as much as our other midfield candidates? We have clearly recruited for improved run over the last couple of off seasons. I struggle to see how his inside presence stacks up against the more rounded Walsh, Cerra, Kennedy, Docherty and Hollands in the midfield.

You won’t find me denigrating George, but I see the others in front of him for so many reasons. While the skipper is fit in our midfield, I see George the most expendable in our engine room.

I always have an eye to the future, looking at list management with a holistic present and future approach. Our list is stacked, anyone delisted or traded in the foreseeable future will be hard done by. There won’t be room for sentiment. The Hawks flicking Mitchell, and the Pies Adams are examples where seemingly entrenched types are going to be moved to ensure the team keeps developing.

George has a chronic back issue, which has been reduced to a management issue rather than a prospect for corrective surgery. With other like the Hollands boys, even forgotten Carrol and eventually Wilson and at least one Compo twin to come, we are unlikely to keep all of our ageing mids. I was surprised when we signed George, thinking he would be passed by a few during his contract with organic development. I dismissed it as having a fall back with his ability to play in defence. We haven’t seen George in the backline during his time with us. We have recruited a number of defensive options, with all of them having good to great speed and agility. I no longer see George as a defender in his twilight.

A club great in Docherty, now has been pushed to a utility role. A hybrid, Mr. Fixit while others are developed long term in their prime spots. For Doc to be viewed that way, it sends a message to a decent group of 28 and older player on the list who are going to come to their end in the “foreseeable” future. Most are best 22 or thereabouts. I struggle to see George with his chronic condition being on the list beyond his current contract which expires at the end of ‘25.

George will play plenty of senior football in 2024. Logic has me questioning if he will stay a walk up starter. I prefer Kennedy and the logic suggested above will possibly sway our match committee (IMO).

Our “senior” brigade is

Newman (contracted ’25) is 31, but in career best form.

Docherty (contracted ‘25) is 30 and still a force, but no longer has a set, designated role. Allowing others to develop.

Saad (contracted ‘25) at 29 with a late season birthday remains a staple. Durable, but the end will come quickly. The type to tough out niggles, but I suspect will reach a point when he can’t and needs his speed and step.

Williams (contracted ‘26) at 29 has a contract and the desire. If his body holds up, will surely play out his contract.

McGovern (contracted ‘25) at 29 has found a new maturity off field and is preparing better than he ever has. I would have backed him to be gone, but his contract year was a turn around. Needs to maintain the rage and stay on the park. His “successor” is already on the list and ready to go, so his motivation should be high.

Martin (contracted this year only) at 29 has proven his value to the team. Has to stay on the park consistently for a decent contract extension for mine. Elijah Hollands, Moir and Monahan all very likely medium forward options perhaps reduce his criticality and therefore alter the acceptable risk of extension. Needs a solid year with the “squeeze”.

Cripps (contracted ‘27) Turns 29 soon and has a battered body. No risk he will be around for four more years, hopefully his body allows him to play near current levels throughout. May affect contracts of others significantly (see Hewett)

Acres (contracted ‘25) 28 Covers massive ground week in week out. A revelation and athletically gifted. The like of Dutchy, Cotts, Binns, Wilson and almost certainly one or both Camporeale(s) will apply pressure in coming years. Hard to see him being pushed out for a few years. A vital cog presenting and outnumbering around the ground. I was a fan from his drafting and welcomed the signing, but admit even I undersold his value.

Hewett (contracted ‘25) At 28 is not “old”, but his body is compromised and likely degenerative. He will give his all on and off the ground to maintain and extend his career. I have doubts what his future brings, but genuinely wish him all the best despite my analytical side raising real questions.

Pittonet (contracted ‘27) and ”Nigel” Durdin (out of contract) head the 27 year olds with physical issues. Pitto cops unwarranted criticism and is heart and soul, but seems a long term “managed” player. Most see TDK becoming the main man, but Pitto remains integral to the top team while no mature back ups are available for “King”.

Big Durds is the perfect fall back option for the top team while being a great mentor in the twos. If he could put the soft tissue dramas behind would be great to keep as a rookie for a few more years, particularly when we draft our next kPD to develop. Spots, even on the rookie list are a premium so needs to stay on the park to be ready to step up when needed.

Good summation of Hewett.

I see him as in a similiar situation to Adrian Gleeson in '95. Same age, roughly same number of games. Both great servants of the club - in Hewett's case 2 clubs - but vulnerable to being superceded by younger and better.

Parkin said delisting Gleeson after '96 was one of the hardest things he had to do. George will play games this year and will continue to give his all, but it is a tough business sometimes.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Team balance must come first. as this was and is our biggest achilles heal.
i like Hewett, but he cannot play another position and as as such, is in an Ed Curnow place.
IMO I don‘t believe he gets a run, as Cripps and Kennedy are in front on of him as the inside bulls.
Cerra and Walsh offer the run and skill set to complement the above 2.
That to me is our ideal key midfield group, so barring injuries to Cripps and Kennedy, it will be hard for Hewett.
We will need to also include players who can play in multiple positions such as EHollands, Docherty, OHollands, etc. in rotations.
I’m excited by the year ahead but the MC will need to make some tough calls.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

George is tough and hard and just built for finals footy.
In my best 22 any day, especially in September.....

 

[JustOneTime]

George is tough and hard and just built for finals footy.
In my best 22 any day, especially in September.....

I'm with you Harvester.

George is literally 100% due diligence type of a footballer - a real professional. Is giving everything and it is good enough. Only injuries have undone him but that has happened to the others too.

If they cant decide between Kennedy and Hewett, then they can play both with Kennedy of the half forward line in place of JSoS. He can switch with Cripps in the middle. Pitto is useless fwd and should go to the bench when TDK goes into the ruck.

 

[Ald Gardiner]

I'm with you Harvester.

George is literally 100% due diligence type of a footballer - a real professional. Is giving everything and it is good enough. Only injuries have undone him but that has happened to the others too.

If they cant decide between Kennedy and Hewett, then they can play both with Kennedy of the half forward line in place of JSoS. He can switch with Cripps in the middle. Pitto is useless fwd and should go to the bench when TDK goes into the ruck.

In place of JSOS?

JSOS was mostly getting games as the pinch hitting ruck/fwd last year, was not getting a game when Voss could have his preferred TDK/Pitto ruck combo. Agree or not, but that was the reality last year.

Maybe JSOS could have tipped Pitto out in 24, but that’s academic now.

MK could well get games, but not for that reason.

 

[TerryWallet]

I am a Hewett backer. He had a brilliant 2022. Leading the B&F in about Rd 17 when he hurt his back. And by leading the B&F at that stage, he was leading the Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps

9

Patrick Cripps

Age

29

Ht

195cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

16.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.8

5star

CL

7.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.9

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

3.8

4star

CL

6.3

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.4

4star

.

2023 was dogged by setbacks including his back still, and his broken? hand/wrist issues. At times he was really hampered.

His hand is fixed now, so he can put that behind him. I do take the point about his back being somewhat of a problem hes going to have to deal with. But at 28 still and seemingly up & about again, i think we can foresee more of '22 than '23 for George in '24. He looks free again in the training vision so it is good signs.

Imo, he is too good at our 1 wood gameplan(around the contest) to leave out. He is great at stoppages and contests and a great foil for the skipper.

Kennedy is also flying. So it will be extremely interesting to see his standing if we ever play at full strength.

But in my eyes, George is in the side unless hobbled. And at 28, there is no reason to believe he is permanently hobbled just yet i don't think.

 

[JustOneTime]

In place of JSOS?

JSOS was mostly getting games as the pinch hitting ruck/fwd last year, was not getting a game when Voss could have his preferred TDK/Pitto ruck combo. Agree or not, but that was the reality last year.

Maybe JSOS could have tipped Pitto out in 24, but that’s academic now.

MK could well get games, but not for that reason.

Well Voss did have all of them to choose from in rounds 2-5 (4 matches straight), which involved all 3 of them selected and resulted in 3 wins out of 4. Not a bad return there. So maybe not just about a pref that when he has TDk/Pitto available, JSoS isnt in his plans.

 

[Earls Smother]

Well Voss did have all of them to choose from in rounds 2-5 (4 matches straight), which involved all 3 of them selected and resulted in 3 wins out of 4. Not a bad return there. So maybe not just about a pref that when he has TDk/Pitto available, JSoS isnt in his plans.

I think that's a bit misleading because of the injury to Jack Martin.

We didn't play all 3 in round 1, then Martin got hurt. Even in rounds 2 and 5 we subbed Jack and Pitto off, so it was pretty obvious we didn't see it as ideal to play the 3 together.

 

[JustOneTime]

I think that's a bit misleading because of the injury to Jack Martin.

We didn't play all 3 in round 1, then Martin got hurt. Even in rounds 2 and 5 we subbed Jack and Pitto off, so it was pretty obvious we didn't see it as ideal to play the 3 together.

That is misleading too because I see JSoS utility value as a 22 player more than anything, including regardless of head to head battles with either Martin, Kennedy or TDK. Each of those competitors win in one place typically; JSoS' value is everywhere.

I'll concede there is evidence that Vossy has tried to off JSoS though. And what I liked most was JSoS response to those situations.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

I am a Hewett backer. He had a brilliant 2022. Leading the B&F in about Rd 17 when he hurt his back. And by leading the B&F at that stage, he was leading the Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps.

2023 was dogged by setbacks including his back still, and his broken? hand/wrist issues. At times he was really hampered.

His hand is fixed now, so he can put that behind him. I do take the point about his back being somewhat of a problem hes going to have to deal with. But at 28 still and seemingly up & about again, i think we can foresee more of '22 than '23 for George in '24. He looks free again in the training vision so it is good signs.

Imo, he is too good at our 1 wood gameplan(around the contest) to leave out. He is great at stoppages and contests and a great foil for the skipper.

Kennedy is also flying. So it will be extremely interesting to see his standing if we ever play at full strength.

But in my eyes, George is in the side unless hobbled. And at 28, there is no reason to believe he is permanently hobbled just yet i don't think.

Both he and Kennedy are in the side unless hobbled imo.

Hewett can comfortably play the HB/sweeper role too.

Likewise Matt K. can play forward.

It's ludicrous that they're both pidgeon holed as 'only' slow, inside mids....

 

[Earls Smother]

That is misleading too because I see JSoS utility value as a 22 player more than anything, including regardless of head to head battles with either Martin, Kennedy or TDK. Each of those competitors win in one place typically; JSoS' value is everywhere.

I'll concede there is evidence that Vossy has tried to off JSoS though. And what I liked most was JSoS response to those situations.

How is it misleading, it is what actually happened?

You are right that Jack's worth is in his utility value. He went forward to replace Martin and Pitto came in for round 2 to ruck with TDK.
When either of TDK or Pitto missed, then Jack played as a ruck/forward.

I've got nothing against Jack, I was advocating that he ruck this year with TDK so we were more mobile. If all the other talls were available, we ideally didn't want to play all 3. You can see that from the various omissions from round 5 onwards.

 

[JustOneTime]

How is it misleading, it is what actually happened?

You are right that Jack's worth is in his utility value. He went forward to replace Martin and Pitto came in for round 2 to ruck with TDK.
When either of TDK or Pitto missed, then Jack played as a ruck/forward.

I've got nothing against Jack, I was advocating that he ruck this year with TDK so we were more mobile. If all the other talls were available, we ideally didn't want to play all 3. You can see that from the various omissions from round 5 onwards.

Overall i dont think it is a hard line you and ald are putting forward. More a horses for courses scenario with a leaning towards TDK/Pitto.

Foxsport's footy site in Round 1 2023 had Pitto named as 1 of 3 Carlton emergency options - so ready to go but not chosen in favour of JSoS? Or was Pitto 100% unavailable?

 

[Earls Smother]

Overall i dont think it is a hard line you and ald are putting forward. More a horses for courses scenario with a leaning towards TDK/Pitto.

Foxsport's footy site in Round 1 2023 had Pitto named as 1 of 3 Carlton emergency options - so ready to go but not chosen in favour of JSoS? Or was Pitto 100% unavailable?

My assessment was only that we preferred not to play the 3 together, particularly after Adelaide ran all over us in Gather round. We had been winning, but not impressively in the first 4 rounds.

If Pitto was emergency in round 1 then he was technically available, but I will concede he was underdone leading into the season. As the season evolved we tinkered to find our best combo. Lob, Fisher and Young all had a decent crack until we preferred others - all teams are always looking to improve by adjusting their balance.

In general we were a slowish team. Playing the 3 of Pitto, TDK and Jack didn't help that. We dropped TDK first, then dropped Jack twice so that the 3 never played together again. Then Pitto did his knee and we went on our winning run from round 14. TDK and Jack were a good combo when we played really good footy, with the Port game being the highlight. Then the decision was made for us when Jack hurt his knee and didn't play again. Unfortunately that scenario continues into this year, with the decision made for us.

 

[JustOneTime]

The positions being fought over

• Open spot as 7th def: Boyd v Kemp v Cowan v Cincotta (on this forum/trackwatchers have it as Boyd generally. Media has it as a non-Boyd option)
• Temporary KPD weeks 0/1: Young vs Durdin (is it a no race based on durdin yet again being on lighter duties)
• Wing 'first choice vs utility': Hollands vs Docherty (Cottrell unlikely)
• Mid utility behind Walsh/Cerra: Hewett vs Kennedy (starts on bench, Cunners/Fog training with mids so seem in no mans land)
• FWD structure up in the air in terms of Kennedy/TDK vs smaller fwd line. No E hollands for 2 rounds. I think they go this way or what to do with TDK. Pitto mostly to bench when not playing (uggh!).
• Small forward spots up for grabs. Motlop vs Fantasia vs Durdin vs Owies. Seems former have the lead in selection. E Hollands to disturb this selection by round 2.

 

[Coona Blues]

The positions being fought over

• Open spot as 7th def: Boyd v Kemp v Cowan v Cincotta (on this forum/trackwatchers have it as Boyd generally. Media has it as a non-Boyd option)
• Temporary KPD weeks 0/1: Young vs Durdin (is it a no race based on durdin yet again being on lighter duties)
• Wing 'first choice vs utility': Hollands vs Docherty (Cottrell unlikely)
• Mid utility behind Walsh/Cerra: Hewett vs Kennedy (starts on bench, Cunners/Fog training with mids so seem in no mans land)
• FWD structure up in the air in terms of Kennedy/TDK vs smaller fwd line. No E hollands for 2 rounds. I think they go this way or what to do with TDK. Pitto mostly to bench when not playing (uggh!).
• Small forward spots up for grabs. Motlop vs Fantasia vs Durdin vs Owies. Seems former have the lead in selection. E Hollands to disturb this selection by round 2.

Yep, highlights the contentious positions.

Not concerned Dutchy V Doc for starting wing, both almost certain to be in the 22.

We haven’t seen all that much of Fantasia and C.Durdin in pre season footage, so not sure if they will be deemed ready. Thinking we have to consider Cottrell as part of the small forward mix now. It would be a brave coaching group to leave Cotts out with his ability to cover territory and outnumber around the ground.

The ruck combo is a little fascinating. Most expect a Pittonet/TDK combination. Pitto has been somewhat managed during pre season plus, with TDK maturing to seriously be considered our no.1 ruck now, it is almost a waste to play Pitto to do <50% ruck minutes and hide him on the bench for the balance of the game.

Young seems likely to play as our KPD in the absence of Weiters. Does that give him the option to pinch hit in the ruck IF we play Kemp in the contentious 7th defender spot? Harry and Crippa are happy to take the odd ruck contest, but is difficult to see them covering 20-30% of ruck time. It would be counter productive to burden TDK with massive ruck minutes and have him “cooked” at the business end of the season. If Youngy confined to a dedicated defensive role, I would not be surprised to see Cowan beat out Boyd and Cincotta for the 7th defender’s spot, based on limited pre season glimpses.

We have targeted increased run, does this preclude us from playing both Hewett and Kennedy in the midfield mix? Chugga has clearly had a stellar pre season and will be hard to keep out. Both player are starting mids on face value. They might both get a run in the first two games, but it is difficult to see them keeping Elijah Hollands out after an impressive pre season with his greater running power and genuine hybrid potency.

So much still to play out…

 

[thylacine60]

does the tight competition for spots we currently have, mean that unless he can fill a specific need, a player may not see us as a viable destination club? discuss...........

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

does the tight competition for spots we currently have, mean that unless he can fill a specific need, a player may not see us as a viable destination club? discuss...........

Every players plays AFL to win a flag - far more than for a Brownlow or Coleman...

If we are seen as a legitimate flag contender for the next handful of years (and that's how I see it) then we are a destination club.

Middle of the road players won't get a look in, so won't bother. Players who are better than that - and back themselves in - will put their hand up....

 

[thylacine60]

so marque players only perhaps?

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

so marque players only perhaps?

or potential marque....

 

[Arr0w]

Still think you can attract non marque players, if they fill a need and they want the opportunity to play at the pointy end

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Still think you can attract non marque players, if they fill a need and they want the opportunity to play at the pointy end

Yes indeed, our #13 a case in point.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

We haven’t seen all that much of Fantasia and C.Durdin in pre season footage, so not sure if they will be deemed ready. Thinking we have to consider Cottrell as part of the small forward mix now. It would be a brave coaching group to leave Cotts out with his ability to cover territory and outnumber around the ground.

Sorry Coona, love your work, but Cottrell is not a 'small forward' in any way, shape or form.

I totally agree that Cottrell's biggest asset is his running capacity - and he's becoming a bit of a weapon now that he's more comfortable at AFL level. I can definitely see him becoming more of an attacking high half forward - and when I say high, basically becomes a 3rd wingman but with more attacking flair than previous years - and the licence to outrun his opponent on the rebound and a genuine goal scoring option like we saw in the Swans final.

In turn, we basically have a 5 man forward line - with the 2 talls and a combo of 2 mediums/2 smalls - and a swarm of rebounding mids on the rebound playing slingshot, where Cottrell could become key contributor.

 

[Coona Blues]

Sorry Coona, love your work, but Cottrell is not a 'small forward' in any way, shape or form.

I totally agree that Cottrell's biggest asset is his running capacity - and he's becoming a bit of a weapon now that he's more comfortable at AFL level. I can definitely see him becoming more of an attacking high half forward - and when I say high, basically becomes a 3rd wingman but with more attacking flair than previous years - and the licence to outrun his opponent on the rebound and a genuine goal scoring option like we saw in the Swans final.

In turn, we basically have a 5 man forward line - with the 2 talls and a combo of 2 mediums/2 smalls - and a swarm of rebounding mids on the rebound playing slingshot, where Cottrell could become key contributor.

Can I suggest you go back a few days and read the report of our forwards coach. One M.Cottrell was one of the named.