Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If Dean is bid on at around pick 8, both Ludowyke and Schubert may still be on the board at our next pick.

Totally agree that we should go tall with the pick.....although if Dovaston is still on the bord

Wouldn't touch Ludowyke personally, don't like his intangibles. Reminds me a bit too much of Lemmey in that regard.

Schubert > Emmett the two KPFs I'd be hoping for if we go that route.

Think where I've pretty well settled with these outcomes with the Dean bid. Don't think we're any chance of getting ahead of it with WCE leaking a pick 2 bid scenario to the media... Obviously no guarantee of any of these players being available at these picks either but I'd think they'll be thereabouts.

If a Dean bid comes very early and we're left wiped out of getting an extra first round pick and have to settle for a later selection after an Ison bid.
Harry Dean (2-6)
Jack Ison (25-35)
Max Kondogiannis (35-45)


If a Dean bid comes a bit before our first pick and pushes our 2nd pick back a few selections but remains ahead of an Ison bid.
Harry Dean (6-10)
Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves (15-25)
Jack Ison (25-35)


If a Dean bid comes around our first pick or just after it and only pushes our 2nd pick back 1-2 selections.
Harry Dean (10-15)
Josh Lindsay (10-15)
Jack Ison (25-35)

 

[GT619]

Wouldn't touch Ludowyke personally, don't like his intangibles. Reminds me a bit too much of Lemmey in that regard.

Schubert > Emmett the two KPFs I'd be hoping for if we go that route.

Think where I've pretty well settled with these outcomes with the Dean bid. Don't think we're any chance of getting ahead of it with WCE leaking a pick 2 bid scenario to the media... Obviously no guarantee of any of these players being available at these picks either but I'd think they'll be thereabouts.

If a Dean bid comes very early and we're left wiped out of getting an extra first round pick and have to settle for a later selection after an Ison bid.
Harry Dean (2-6)
Jack Ison (25-35)
Max Kondogiannis (35-45)


If a Dean bid comes a bit before our first pick and pushes our 2nd pick back a few selections but remains ahead of an Ison bid.
Harry Dean (6-10)
Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves (15-25)
Jack Ison (25-35)


If a Dean bid comes around our first pick or just after it and only pushes our 2nd pick back 1-2 selections.
Harry Dean (10-15)
Josh Lindsay (10-15)
Jack Ison (25-35)

Lindsay doesn't sound like a carlton player

 

[Dramoth]

I think this is a more realistic series of suggestions in terms of club needs in the top 10, but I struggle to see how both West Coast and Richmond would bypass both of Sharp and Cummings. That's madness, as is CDT sliding to 13.

Essendon bidding on Dean is a bluff that should be called, but I'm thinking we'll have a trade strategy in place to move up.

Someone has used a particle accelerator and merged Liam Sumner and Jarrod Pickett

 

[SurreyBlue]

Lindsay doesn't sound like a carlton player

If we ever want to get someone with elite kicking skills, he's the one. Gets a lot of outside uncontested ball and was used to set up play off half back. I personally think he'll go top 10 as running sides will be drooling over his kicking. Reminds me a little of Guilden.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Lindsay doesn't sound like a carlton player

What about Lindsay Smith? He was a gun ruck in AFL live 2003 back in the day...

 

[Jimmae]

Would a live trade be possible with Essendon if a Dean bid hasn’t come in before there picks? Pick 9 and Sydney’s 2027 first for 6 and later picks for ison

Yes, we can trade for any pick that hasn't been used, including the currently live pick. The AFL have a mechanism to extend the time on a pick to discuss and finalise a trade.

Wouldn't touch Ludowyke personally, don't like his intangibles. Reminds me a bit too much of Lemmey in that regard.

Schubert > Emmett the two KPFs I'd be hoping for if we go that route.

Think where I've pretty well settled with these outcomes with the Dean bid. Don't think we're any chance of getting ahead of it with WCE leaking a pick 2 bid scenario to the media... Obviously no guarantee of any of these players being available at these picks either but I'd think they'll be thereabouts.

If a Dean bid comes very early and we're left wiped out of getting an extra first round pick and have to settle for a later selection after an Ison bid.
Harry Dean (2-6)
Jack Ison (25-35)
Max Kondogiannis (35-45)


If a Dean bid comes a bit before our first pick and pushes our 2nd pick back a few selections but remains ahead of an Ison bid.
Harry Dean (6-10)
Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves (15-25)
Jack Ison (25-35)


If a Dean bid comes around our first pick or just after it and only pushes our 2nd pick back 1-2 selections.
Harry Dean (10-15)
Josh Lindsay (10-15)
Jack Ison (25-35)

And if the Dean talk is pure gamesmanship and he's rated roughly at below our picks, we trade up and get this guy:



or this guy



or this guy



Also not enough love for Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier from you in the later selections.

 

[GoBlues!]

Also not enough love for Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier from you in the later selections.

This guy looks a likely type Jimmae, very good with ball in hand and decision maker.

 

[Tazdog]

Hello guys, I come in peace. Just wondering if you guys have any idea what you’re gonna do with 9 and 11?

From the brief bit I have just read it seems you want to take them both to the draft and hope the dean bid comes later? Do you know if CFC are entertaining any trade deals, for points for Ison and Dean or even futures for walker? If this is the case, I assume we’d be a club you’d want to do business with. What hypotheticals would you guys entertain?

I personally think a dean bid will at the very latest come at melbourne’s picks considering they need a key back. If Tigs rate him above Taylor then that’s a real possibility, and I can also see a scenario where Essendon threaten to bid on him as a negotiation tactic for us to split our picks or trade up. In my opinion It would make the most sense to trade out 9 and 11 for futures whilst also securing enough points for Dean and Ison. Whilst yes it is a possibility that it’s all posturing and a bid comes later than expected, it’s also an even more real possibility that you miss out on ison or go into points deficit. I can see something happening where we give you 2 of our second rounders and 6 (plus a handshake that we won’t bid on dean) for 9 11 and 43. I reckon this is a win win, CFC End up with 2 top 10 talents and enough points to get ison as well, whilst EFC make better use of their second rounders by getting an additional FRP and having enough to match a sweid bid. What do you guys think? )

 

[marcmurphy3]

Hello guys, I come in peace. Just wondering if you guys have any idea what you’re gonna do with 9 and 11?

From the brief bit I have just read it seems you want to take them both to the draft and hope the dean bid comes later? Do you know if CFC are entertaining any trade deals, for points for Ison and Dean or even futures for walker? If this is the case, I assume we’d be a club you’d want to do business with. What hypotheticals would you guys entertain?

I personally think a dean bid will at the very latest come at melbourne’s picks considering they need a key back. If Tigs rate him above Taylor then that’s a real possibility, and I can also see a scenario where Essendon threaten to bid on him as a negotiation tactic for us to split our picks or trade up. In my opinion It would make the most sense to trade out 9 and 11 for futures whilst also securing enough points for Dean and Ison. Whilst yes it is a possibility that it’s all posturing and a bid comes later than expected, it’s also an even more real possibility that you miss out on ison or go into points deficit. I can see something happening where we give you 2 of our second rounders and 6 (plus a handshake that we won’t bid on dean) for 9 11 and 43. I reckon this is a win win, CFC End up with 2 top 10 talents and enough points to get ison as well, whilst EFC make better use of their second rounders by getting an additional FRP and having enough to match a sweid bid. What do you guys think? )

I think most people expect a Dean bid to come before our first pick. I think the club would almost certainly be looking at some kind of deal. What exactly, im not sure. Depends what's being offered, who we rate in the draft and if f/s rules are changed further.

I think your proposal in is the ballpark if we want to move up but might make it hard to match both Dean and Ison, without going into deficit. Im not sure your threat would do alot, since we'd be factoring in a bid by your picks anyway. We'll take the deal if it suits us.

 

[Coona Blues]

This guy looks a likely type Jimmae, very good with ball in hand and decision maker.

Players like BOB show why this draft is not as bad as advertised.

I find there are a good twenty or more players who I would not be disappointed if we take use our third live pick to take them.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Players like BOB show why this draft is not as bad as advertised.

I find there are a good twenty or more players who I would not be disappointed if we take use our third live pick to take them.

Yup I'd add Noah Roberts-Thomson too

 

[Stamos]

Why Carlton's put all its draft eggs in one Harry Dean-sized basket

Described as 'competitive and combative', Harry Dean is looking to bring those attributes to Carlton where his father Peter was a two-time premiership star

www.afl.com.au

 

[Bletch]

Hello guys, I come in peace. Just wondering if you guys have any idea what you’re gonna do with 9 and 11?

From the brief bit I have just read it seems you want to take them both to the draft and hope the dean bid comes later? Do you know if CFC are entertaining any trade deals, for points for Ison and Dean or even futures for walker? If this is the case, I assume we’d be a club you’d want to do business with. What hypotheticals would you guys entertain?

I personally think a dean bid will at the very latest come at melbourne’s picks considering they need a key back. If Tigs rate him above Taylor then that’s a real possibility, and I can also see a scenario where Essendon threaten to bid on him as a negotiation tactic for us to split our picks or trade up. In my opinion It would make the most sense to trade out 9 and 11 for futures whilst also securing enough points for Dean and Ison. Whilst yes it is a possibility that it’s all posturing and a bid comes later than expected, it’s also an even more real possibility that you miss out on ison or go into points deficit. I can see something happening where we give you 2 of our second rounders and 6 (plus a handshake that we won’t bid on dean) for 9 11 and 43. I reckon this is a win win, CFC End up with 2 top 10 talents and enough points to get ison as well, whilst EFC make better use of their second rounders by getting an additional FRP and having enough to match a sweid bid. What do you guys think? )

There's been a lot of talk here on our board about such a deal (also other possible trade-ups, e.g. West Coast).

They key, I think for both of us, would be to ensure that we can both still have enough points for our nga's. For us, that means having sufficient points left over after matching Dean to also get Ison, and for you covering Sweid and El Achkar.

I think it would have to be a live trade, so we can be certain Dean is still on the board at your pick 6. And then we'd look at what GC and Brisbane have done, and what the points situation is.

I'm sure there will be a number of scenarios in play for both of us.

 

[bradfisher14]

Who top draft prospect would select at Pick 1

Will Willem Duursma land at Pick 1?

www.sen.com.au

If Duursma wasn’t to go Pick 1, the prospect believes that his Vic Country teammate and Carlton father-son should be selected at the pinnacle of the draft.

“I’d probably say Harry Dean (should go Pick 1), Carlton’s father-son,” Duursma said.

 

[Dramoth]

Hello guys, I come in peace. Just wondering if you guys have any idea what you’re gonna do with 9 and 11?

From the brief bit I have just read it seems you want to take them both to the draft and hope the dean bid comes later? Do you know if CFC are entertaining any trade deals, for points for Ison and Dean or even futures for walker? If this is the case, I assume we’d be a club you’d want to do business with. What hypotheticals would you guys entertain?

I personally think a dean bid will at the very latest come at melbourne’s picks considering they need a key back. If Tigs rate him above Taylor then that’s a real possibility, and I can also see a scenario where Essendon threaten to bid on him as a negotiation tactic for us to split our picks or trade up. In my opinion It would make the most sense to trade out 9 and 11 for futures whilst also securing enough points for Dean and Ison. Whilst yes it is a possibility that it’s all posturing and a bid comes later than expected, it’s also an even more real possibility that you miss out on ison or go into points deficit. I can see something happening where we give you 2 of our second rounders and 6 (plus a handshake that we won’t bid on dean) for 9 11 and 43. I reckon this is a win win, CFC End up with 2 top 10 talents and enough points to get ison as well, whilst EFC make better use of their second rounders by getting an additional FRP and having enough to match a sweid bid. What do you guys think? )

I’ve suggested that sort of deal in the past couple of weeks. I also suggested 6, 21 (Drake Compo), and one of your later seconds.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Why Carlton's put all its draft eggs in one Harry Dean-sized basket

Described as 'competitive and combative', Harry Dean is looking to bring those attributes to Carlton where his father Peter was a two-time premiership star

www.afl.com.au

Competitive and combative is right.

He tackles like the other guy ate his lunch.

The old-school fans will love him

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Yes, we can trade for any pick that hasn't been used, including the currently live pick. The AFL have a mechanism to extend the time on a pick to discuss and finalise a trade.

And if the Dean talk is pure gamesmanship and he's rated roughly at below our picks, we trade up and get this guy:



or this guy



or this guy



Also not enough love for Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier from you in the later selections.

I like Oudshoorn-Bennier, just think he'll be too close to Ison on draft night to match a bid and get him.

No interest in taking Sharp however.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Hello guys, I come in peace. Just wondering if you guys have any idea what you’re gonna do with 9 and 11?

From the brief bit I have just read it seems you want to take them both to the draft and hope the dean bid comes later? Do you know if CFC are entertaining any trade deals, for points for Ison and Dean or even futures for walker? If this is the case, I assume we’d be a club you’d want to do business with. What hypotheticals would you guys entertain?

I personally think a dean bid will at the very latest come at melbourne’s picks considering they need a key back. If Tigs rate him above Taylor then that’s a real possibility, and I can also see a scenario where Essendon threaten to bid on him as a negotiation tactic for us to split our picks or trade up. In my opinion It would make the most sense to trade out 9 and 11 for futures whilst also securing enough points for Dean and Ison. Whilst yes it is a possibility that it’s all posturing and a bid comes later than expected, it’s also an even more real possibility that you miss out on ison or go into points deficit. I can see something happening where we give you 2 of our second rounders and 6 (plus a handshake that we won’t bid on dean) for 9 11 and 43. I reckon this is a win win, CFC End up with 2 top 10 talents and enough points to get ison as well, whilst EFC make better use of their second rounders by getting an additional FRP and having enough to match a sweid bid. What do you guys think? )

Personally I think we'll probably do a trade on the night.

A couple of scenarios.

1. Trade up.

Package 9 & 11 for a pick before a Dean bid and a lot of points behind it.

Currently don't see a logical taker, but pick trades could change that.

2. Trade down

Trade pick 9 down for more points. Foregoes a chance at a non-tied player in the top 20 but is a more efficient use of the points, probably also get a future pick upgrade in this sort of deal

3. Trade out

Trade 9 out for a future first and a pick in the second round, enough to match Dean and Ison.

We would still get a pick towards the back of the draft if we liked a prospect and this sets us up very strongly for Cody

4. Trade in points

Trade a future pick for points in the second and third rounds so we can get Dean another first round selection and Ison.

It's possible Ison gets through to the 30's, but I doubt it and we will need some points to ensure that our first pick next year isn't affected as that could really hurt a Cody match

 

[SurreyBlue]

We need to draft Kondogiannis. Replacement for Haynes as third tall and the boy can mark and kick.
Also, just can’t have enough Greeks playing for us. Get it done Austin, no excuses.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

We need to draft Kondogiannis. Replacement for Haynes as third tall and the boy can mark and kick.
Also, just can’t have enough Greeks playing for us. Get it done Austin, no excuses.

He's more like Ridley than Haynes. More of an offensive weapon whereas Haynes has always been defense first and rebound after.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Players like BOB show why this draft is not as bad as advertised.

I find there are a good twenty or more players who I would not be disappointed if we take use our third live pick to take them.

Footballer. Just purely knows to play. Will be an AFL player. You don’t need to watch too much of a guy to see a genuine footballer.

 

[Manhattanite]

Why Carlton's put all its draft eggs in one Harry Dean-sized basket

Described as 'competitive and combative', Harry Dean is looking to bring those attributes to Carlton where his father Peter was a two-time premiership star

www.afl.com.au

The more I read about Dean the more I realize I have been underestimating his value - I had thought we should be able to use Pick 9 on someone else and then get Dean - but the kid is actually best 5 in this draft and as per Twomey and others he’s probably the best 18 year old (actually he’s still 17) key defender in 5 years or more. He’s capable of being All Australian multiple times. Very exciting.

But I still hope no one bids on him before Pick 8 so we can still get a mid first rounder with the points left. But even if we have to pay more he’s going to be special.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

The more I read about Dean the more I realize I have been underestimating his value - I had thought we should be able to use Pick 9 on someone else and then get Dean - but the kid is actually best 5 in this draft and as per Twomey and others he’s probably the best 18 year old (actually he’s still 17) key defender in 5 years or more. He’s capable of being All Australian multiple times. Very exciting.

But I still hope no one bids on him before Pick 8 so we can still get a mid first rounder with the points left. But even if we have to pay more he’s going to be special.

Don't worry you're not alone with that, there's been plenty of underrating of him on here. His intangibles are perfect for a modern defender.

 

[Stamos]

Personally I think we'll probably do a trade on the night.

A couple of scenarios.

1. Trade up.

Package 9 & 11 for a pick before a Dean bid and a lot of points behind it.

Currently don't see a logical taker, but pick trades could change that.

Essendon is the only logical possibility, and only if they really want to move their #21 up.
The trade would look something like
6+21+27 for 9+11
These picks all shift positions on draft night obviously to something like
9 + (22+25 used for points matching Dean) for 13 + 15

2. Trade down

Trade pick 9 down for more points. Foregoes a chance at a non-tied player in the top 20 but is a more efficient use of the points, probably also get a future pick upgrade in this sort of deal

There are very few viable options.
Brisbane and Gold Coast hold a lot of points, but they both want more, and would be buyers before us on any possible deal.
There's Essendon, which would likely revolve around the above deal.
Aside from that, West Coast may want to move their #13 up, so they're one option, although that's going to really hurt our non-Dean 1st round selection, while guaranteeing Ison.
Or North, who would essentially have to go all in on a single pick.

4. Trade in points

Trade a future pick for points in the second and third rounds so we can get Dean another first round selection and Ison.

It's possible Ison gets through to the 30's, but I doubt it and we will need some points to ensure that our first pick next year isn't affected as that could really hurt a Cody match

2026F1s are obviously off the table, so that leaves our currency as 2027F3 (essentially worthless at the moment) or one of our 2027F1s. If we were willing to use one of these, it's probably involved in a wider trade, rather than just trading into this draft.

 

[ctwenty1]

Don't worry you're not alone with that, there's been plenty of underrating of him on here. His intangibles are perfect for a modern defender.

Thing to remember with Dean, which the other clubs would know, is that he has benefitted from being in an AFL system

The other boys who are not tied do not get the same benefit

So Dean will be further progressed than others and therefore likley closer to his ceiling whereas those non-tied are further from their's

Its also another part of the explanation as to why bids come later for NGA and F/S

Obviously not trying rag on Dean, but as the phantom drafts start coming out we will see what clubs are thinking about prospective players as opposed to rankings rated purely on present talent