2025 Ladder Predictions

[Slime Roy]

Want to start my "AFL Advent Calendar"
Do we think there'll be preseason hit-outs this year?
I really don't want a "Fauxdown" ...or to play the Eagles AGAIN!

 

[Purple Suit]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Melbourne	15	8	0	106.1%
2.	Fremantle	14	9	0	115.1%
3.	St Kilda	14	9	0	110.9%
4.	GWS	14	9	0	110.2%
5.	Essendon	14	9	0	108.5%
6.	Carlton	13	10	0	109.4%
7.	Sydney	13	10	0	103.6%
8.	Collingwood	13	10	0	97.5%
9.	Brisbane Lions	12	11	0	115.4%
10.	Geelong	12	11	0	109.6%
11.	Adelaide	12	11	0	105.9%
12.	Gold Coast	12	11	0	104.2%
13.	Western Bulldogs	12	11	0	103.9%
14.	Port Adelaide	12	11	0	100.2%
15.	Hawthorn	11	12	0	106.6%
16.	North Melbourne	6	17	0	69.6%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	72.2%
18.	West Coast	4	19	0	71.9%

QF1: MELBOURNE v GWS
QF2: FREMANTLE v St Kilda
EF1: Essendon v COLLINGWOOD
EF2: CARLTON v Sydney

SF1: GWS v COLLINGWOOD
SF2: ST KILDA v Carlton

PF1: MELBOURNE v St Kilda
PF2: FREMANTLE v Collingwood

GF: Melbourne v FREMANTLE

Are you sure you’re not a Freo fan?

 

[Battlepants]

1. Brisbane Lions
2. Carlton Blues
3. Collingwood Magpies
4. Hawthorn Hawks
5. Fremantle Dockers
6. GWS Giants
7. Sydney Swans
8. Geelong Cats

9. Gold Coast Suns
10. Adelaide Crows
11. Port Adelaide Power
12. Melbourne Demons
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Essendon Bombers
15. North Melbourne Kangaroos
16. St Kilda Saints
17. West Coast Eagles
18. Richmond Tigers

 

[draft_enjoyer]

Are you sure you’re not a Freo fan?

I am a Shai Bolton fan

 

[Purple Suit]

I am a Shai Bolton fan

Unfortunately I think your predictions are miles out. No way are Melbourne finishing on top of the ladder....

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yeah St Kilda are a hard one to read.

Not sure what’s more reflective - the first half of the season where you were a 3-8 15th on the ladder side.

Or the second half of the season where you were an 8-4 top 4 or 5 kind of side.

I suspect St Kilda are somewhere in the middle and will finish around 9th to 10th, which must frustrate the hell out of Saints fans.

In the first half of the season we were smashed by injuries (missing in my estimation 8 of our best 23 or 24 in R1, then we lost Crouch half way through that game, and Wood and Henry for extended periods the following week- which I’d say was the “straw that broke the camels back”, from an injuries perspective) and we also had a ridiculously brutal draw in the first 9 weeks.

ZERO legitimate home ground advantage games, 5 of the 9 games interstate or in Geelong, two 5-day breaks, etc. Yet during that period, we won 3 games and lost 5 others by 10 points or less. With 4 of them being interstate/Geelong, to teams who made the finals.

So I would have thought that under those circumstances, we actually did well during that period, too. All things considered.

If we weren’t the good team we showed we were in 2023 and in the last 12 games this year, we would have been blown off the park regularly in that first 9 weeks in particular. Yet we were super-competitive week after week.

So it will largely come down to injuries again. Especially as we now have 12 on our list who are under 20yo.

Another bad injury run and we’ll probably struggle, due to less experienced depth, but if we have a good one for the first time since 2020, I don’t see why we can’t continue on where we left off.

Injuries derailed our season this year, just like they did your boys, Carlton, Richmond etc. There was just bugger-all mention of ours in the media.

 

[Fadge]

Gone from oldest list in a GF 2 years ago to the 5th oldest within two draft periods.
We've passed the Hector baton on.

It truly is amazing how that happens.

(Actually, it isn't)

 

[draft_enjoyer]

Unfortunately I think your predictions are miles out. No way are Melbourne finishing on top of the ladder....

As a matter of fact, I had the dees start 1-7 and then win 14 in a row. I feel like people are sleeping on them a bit tbh.

 

[Jezzitizle]

As a matter of fact, I had the dees start 1-7 and then win 14 in a row. I feel like people are sleeping on them a bit tbh.

Have done nothing of note in the offseason, Trac, Pickett and Oliver all tried to leave. May and Gawn both the wrong side of 30, May in particular shows it.

Would take a monumental turn around just to play finals, I would question their hunger and dedication.

This era of Dees success is over, time for a rebuild.

 

[Trav 20]

Have done nothing of note in the offseason, Trac, Pickett and Oliver all tried to leave. May and Gawn both the wrong side of 30, May in particular shows it.

Would take a monumental turn around just to play finals, I would question their hunger and dedication.

This era of Dees success is over, time for a rebuild.

It's utter garbage to say Pickett tried to leave.

Oliver was shopped around by the former CEO, so understandably got his nose out of joint. He was very content prior to Pert getting on the phone. His belly has been tickled and he's fine again.

Petracca has until 2029 to get over his issues.

Gawn is coming off another AA and is super fit. Why you'd list his age as a concern for 2025 is beyond me. He has at least 3 quality years left.

And I'm not worried by May or the defence in general. May, Lever, Petty, McVee, Salem, Windsor (new role), and others will be fine.

People are sheep, so I get the groupthink re Melbourne. But in a year when everything that could go wrong did, they still had 15 games decided by a goal or less in the h&a. GWS had 16.

But if there's anyone that should doubt the Dees I agree it's a Freo supporter !!

 

[aussierulesrules]

People are sheep, so I get the groupthink re Melbourne. But in a year when everything that could go wrong did, they still had 15 games decided by a goal or less in the h&a. GWS had 16.

I take it you mean they either won, or lost by a goal or less, 15 times.

Saints exactly the same. Plus 8 and 10 point losses to Geelong at Geelong and Port in Adelaide.

The only one of St Kilda’s 6 losses by 10 points or less that wasn’t to a team who made the 2nd week of finals at a minimum was the 4 point loss to Essendon, when they were in the 8-1-3 part of their season.

Was possibly the most even season ever.

At least 14 teams will well and truly be aiming for finals this year.

 

[Seattle Mariners]

Have done nothing of note in the offseason, Trac, Pickett and Oliver all tried to leave. May and Gawn both the wrong side of 30, May in particular shows it.

Would take a monumental turn around just to play finals, I would question their hunger and dedication.

This era of Dees success is over, time for a rebuild.

I agree with you. Melbourne will have a shit year next year, and it will take a miracle for them to play finals. No issues there. The hunger well and truly wore off this year, and it was plain for all to see.

I also think Freo will miss the finals. All talk about their talent but have done deadly squat under Longmuir aside from an impressive 2022 against the odds.

Sure, many people will cut them some slack for missing 4 best 22 players in the final month of 2024, but I don’t see anyone cutting Carlton some slack for missing 8-10 of their best players in their final month.

The narrative seems to be:
1) Freo missed finals because of injuries.
2) Carlton missed finals because they imploded under Voss.

I could be wildly of the mark, and Freo end up minor premiers, but they just seem untrustworthy to go the distance of a season.

 

[Mr Meow]

I take it you mean they either won, or lost by a goal or less, 15 times.

Saints exactly the same. Plus 8 and 10 point losses to Geelong at Geelong and Port in Adelaide.

The only one of St Kilda’s 6 losses by 10 points or less that wasn’t to a team who played finals was the 4 point loss to Essendon, when they were in the 8-1-3 part of their season.

Was possibly the most even season ever.

This is why - and I still give them a go anyway - ladder prediction exercises are such a pointless exercise. Flip a few very close results and the entire structure of the ladder can get tipped on its head. Geelong won more close games in 2024 than 2023 and that alone was enough to move them to top 4 rather than missing finals. I'm sure it was the reverse for sides like Melbourne and St Kilda.

Of course close games aren't just won by luck but the closer it is, the more it's involved.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Sure, many people will cut Freo some slack for missing 4 best 22 players in the final month of 2024, but I don’t see anyone cutting Carlton some slack for missing 8-10 of their best players in their final month.

I would have thought that anyone with the slightest sense of intelligence who isn’t taking the ultimate piss would give Carlton a huge amount of slack for how their season ended.

Winning when you’re missing that many of your best team and in particular that many of your best and most important players is extraordinarily difficult.

It’s no coincidence that they stopped winning when they had all those personnel losses. Just like it’s no coincidence that Freo’s wins dried up when they lost those key pieces late. Just like it’s no coincidence that Melbourne went from a 6-3 start to finishing 15th, after losing Trac and a few others. Just like it’s no coincidence that St Kilda found it really hard to beat good or in form teams once they reached a breaking point of injuries, after that R2 game against Collingwood, before coming home hard once they got a lot closer to full strength from mid-season onwards. Just like it’s no coincidence that Richmond became a basket case after being decimated by injuries.

Teams that keep on winning in spite of significant personnel losses are very much the exception, not the norm.

 

[Mr Meow]

I would have thought that anyone with the slightest sense of intelligence who isn’t taking the ultimate piss would give Carlton a huge amount of slack for how their season ended.

Winning when you’re missing that many of your best team and in particular that many of your best and most important players is extraordinarily difficult.

It’s no coincidence that they stopped winning when they had all those personnel losses. Just like it’s no coincidence that Freo’s wins dried up when they lost those key pieces late. Just like it’s no coincidence that Melbourne went from a 6-3 start to finishing 15th, after losing Trac and a few others. Just like it’s no coincidence that St Kilda found it really hard to beat good or in form teams once they reached a breaking point of injuries, after that R2 game against Collingwood, before coming home hard once they got a lot closer to full strength from mid-season onwards. Just like it’s no coincidence that Richmond became a basket case after being decimated by injuries.

Teams that keep on winning in spite of significant personnel losses are very much the exception, not the norm.

You might want to check Carlton's injury list up until the point in the Hawthorn game where they were already being beaten. It exploded after that but the meltdown was already well underway.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

I agree with you. Melbourne will have a shit year next year, and it will take a miracle for them to play finals. No issues there. The hunger well and truly wore off this year, and it was plain for all to see.

I also think Freo will miss the finals. All talk about their talent but have done deadly squat under Longmuir aside from an impressive 2022 against the odds.

Sure, many people will cut them some slack for missing 4 best 22 players in the final month of 2024, but I don’t see anyone cutting Carlton some slack for missing 8-10 of their best players in their final month.

The narrative seems to be:
1) Freo missed finals because of injuries.
2) Carlton missed finals because they imploded under Voss.

I could be wildly of the mark, and Freo end up minor premiers, but they just seem untrustworthy to go the distance of a season.

That's certainly not the narrative on the Freo board. It's widely accepted that poor execution of skills and decision making under pressure led to an inability to win close games. Whether that is on the coaching group, or the players, or both, is up for debate.

I certainly feel like we are closer than a lot of people think. A dropped mark here, a contentious double goal there, a missed goal at the death, etc. We win any of those moments and we would have played finals. The injuries aren't the reason.

 

[aussierulesrules]

That's certainly not the narrative on the Freo board. It's widely accepted that poor execution of skills and decision making under pressure led to an inability to win close games. Whether that is on the coaching group, or the players, or both, is up for debate.

I certainly feel like we are closer than a lot of people think. A dropped mark here, a contentious double goal there, a missed goal at the death, etc. We win any of those moments and we would have played finals. The injuries aren't the reason.

There will always be things that a team could have done better (even if you’re winning you could go through a game with a fine tooth comb and find things you could have done better), but if you weren’t missing all those key personnel, it probably wouldn’t have come down to all those little moments.

You probably would have been far enough ahead that they wouldn’t have mattered.

One of the hardest things about injuries is trying to win in those initial games.

Because for weeks or months you’ve been relying on those guys playing a key structural role, and then when you lose them and replace them with someone significantly inferior, what had been working well for you previously won’t anymore. And it can take a number of weeks to get used to the new guys and perhaps winning a different way.

We’ve seen it a lot with Brisbane in recent years. They’ve had bugger-all injuries for years at time, but then when they do lose one or two key pieces, they can struggle for the next few weeks, before getting rolling again.

 

[Trav 20]

I take it you mean they either won, or lost by a goal or less, 15 times.

Saints exactly the same. Plus 8 and 10 point losses to Geelong at Geelong and Port in Adelaide.

Yes.

I'm of the belief that a team's fortunes are very dependent on their best 6, or so, players.

For us, if all of Petracca, Oliver, Gawn, May, Lever and Pickett, along with a few others like Viney, Fritsch, Langdon, McVee, have close to their best years then we'll be well entrenched in the 8. 2021, 2022, and 2023 we were top 4 every year.

If they fall away we'll be rubbish. Only Lever and Fritsch are not in full training and they're still getting a heap of work in.

But I get why the consensus is we'll be bottom 5. People look at last year's ladder.

 

[Jezzitizle]

It's utter garbage to say Pickett tried to leave.

Oliver was shopped around by the former CEO, so understandably got his nose out of joint. He was very content prior to Pert getting on the phone. His belly has been tickled and he's fine again.

Petracca has until 2029 to get over his issues.

Gawn is coming off another AA and is super fit. Why you'd list his age as a concern for 2025 is beyond me. He has at least 3 quality years left.

And I'm not worried by May or the defence in general. May, Lever, Petty, McVee, Salem, Windsor (new role), and others will be fine.

People are sheep, so I get the groupthink re Melbourne. But in a year when everything that could go wrong did, they still had 15 games decided by a goal or less in the h&a. GWS had 16.

But if there's anyone that should doubt the Dees I agree it's a Freo supporter !!

That’s a very rosy view, I actually don’t mind your team so won’t mind if I’m wrong.

Twomey seems to think that Kozzie isn’t as settled as the Dees spin dept would have you believe from about 17.20.

The 10 biggest contract and trade stories to watch in 2025

www.afl.com.au

I agree with you. Melbourne will have a shit year next year, and it will take a miracle for them to play finals. No issues there. The hunger well and truly wore off this year, and it was plain for all to see.

I also think Freo will miss the finals. All talk about their talent but have done deadly squat under Longmuir aside from an impressive 2022 against the odds.

Sure, many people will cut them some slack for missing 4 best 22 players in the final month of 2024, but I don’t see anyone cutting Carlton some slack for missing 8-10 of their best players in their final month.

The narrative seems to be:
1) Freo missed finals because of injuries.
2) Carlton missed finals because they imploded under Voss.

I could be wildly of the mark, and Freo end up minor premiers, but they just seem untrustworthy to go the distance of a season.

Freo could miss finals, this group of players and coaches seem to have a lot of potential, but still have to deliver on it.

I think Freo will be top 4, we will see.

 

[Trav 20]

That’s a very rosy view, I actually don’t mind your team so won’t mind if I’m wrong.

Twomey seems to think that Kozzie isn’t as settled as the Dees spin dept would have you believe from about 17.20.

The 10 biggest contract and trade stories to watch in 2025

www.afl.com.au

You said he tried to leave. His manager Peter Rhode confirmed to the club multiple times that he was staying.

You do realise this happens with Pickett every year and he's never requested a trade ? Not only did he not request a trade he signed a contract extension last year until the end of 2027. I don't think he'll finish his career at Melbourne, but he never ''tried to leave'', as you asserted.

He's now got his mate Ricky Mentha at the club and his Uncle, Roy George, will be playing for Casey. With luck he'll remain settled.

 

[carlton_99]

You might want to check Carlton's injury list up until the point in the Hawthorn game where they were already being beaten. It exploded after that but the meltdown was already well underway.

Carlton's injury issues got worse in the Hawks game but they had significant issues throughout the year as well. We were just inconsistent in how we dealt with them which is linked to individual player form.

This is an article from May 2024 where they looked at games lost to injury for each team and Carlton were 2nd at that point behind Fremantle. Carlton were 2nd at the end of the year as well behind Richmond (in both overall injuries and injuries to what Champion Data considered the best 22).

Champ’s Achilles heel exposed; change that reignited Cats: Every club state of play

Champ’s Achilles heel exposed; change that reignited Cats: Every club state of play

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Mr Meow]

Carlton's injury issues got worse in the Hawks game but they had significant issues throughout the year as well. We were just inconsistent in how we dealt with them which is linked to individual player form.

This is an article from May 2024 where they looked at games lost to injury for each team and Carlton were 2nd at that point behind Richmond. Pretty sure Richmond/Carlton were 1st/2nd at the end of the year as well.

Champ’s Achilles heel exposed; change that reignited Cats: Every club state of play

Champ’s Achilles heel exposed; change that reignited Cats: Every club state of play

www.foxsports.com.au

Their injury run between line up for the GWS game and the start of the Hawthorn game implosion (which preceded the absurd injury dominoes) was not materially worse than the first 10 rounds.

What changed was the form line of the team and then the injury mountain developed to put an exclamation mark on it.

The poster I replied to painted a picture of clean health that then flicked to a mountain of injuries that drove the second half of season collapse. That simply isn't what occurred.

 

[carlton_99]

Their injury run between line up for the GWS game and the start of the Hawthorn game implosion (which preceded the absurd injury dominoes) was not materially worse than the first 10 rounds.

What changed was the form line of the team and then the injury mountain developed to put an exclamation mark on it.

The poster I replied to painted a picture of clean health that then flicked to a mountain of injuries that drove the losing streak. That simply isn't what occurred.

I agree which is why I said we had significant injuries all year but didn't deal with them consistently which was mainly linked to individual player form.

I must have misinterpreted your post because I thought when you said "check their injury list prior to Hawks game" you were saying we had a clean bill of health at that point. That was the only reason I replied.

 

[Jezzitizle]

You said he tried to leave. His manager Peter Rhode confirmed to the club multiple times that he was staying.

You do realise this happens with Pickett every year and he's never requested a trade ? Not only did he not request a trade he signed a contract extension last year until the end of 2027. I don't think he'll finish his career at Melbourne, but he never ''tried to leave'', as you asserted.

He's now got his mate Ricky Mentha at the club and his Uncle, Roy George, will be playing for Casey. With luck he'll remain settled.

Meh, splitting hairs.

 

[Trav 20]

Meh, splitting hairs.

No. Correcting falsehoods.