Fancy making a prediction when the draw had been released, and then blaming that same fixture for making an incorrect prediction....
2025 Ladder Predictions
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Surely freo walk in a finals appearance and potentially top 4? They've got an exceptional list even with their over investment into the ruck division.
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For what it's worth... here are my thoughts
1. Hawthorn - on the rise, chock full of confidence, and bestowed with large amounts of self-belief from a terrific coach. A couple of very handy inclusions to stiffen up their key position stocks. All things being equal with injuries, their rise will continue at a similar rate to last year.
2. Carlton - now or never. If they can get their injury management under control, they are too good not to be at the pointy end.
3. Geelong - the most consistent team of our generation will keep on keeping on.
4. Collingwood - will bounce back strongly after a disappointing 2024. Good depth across all lines. Ageing, but enough fire power to give it one more shot.
5. Fremantle - have invested in youth, with plenty entering their prime. I have a feeling their home ground will become a real fortress this year. Will only need to win a handful on the road to be right in Top 4 calculations.
6. Sydney - a bit of a dip year. Will be energised by a new coach and new voice, but some scars must remain.
7. GWS - so much talent, but ability to deliver consistently week in week out troubles me. Toby another year older.
8. Lions - they have been up for so long, with a shortened pre-season and the loss of Daniher. I think there will be plenty of speed humps for Brisbane this year. An imposing home ground advantage should see them sneak into September action.
9. Crows - I find them very hard to place. Still too many deficiencies in their list to make a real impact. This is probably at the upper end of when I see them finishing. Coach to lose his job at season end.
10. St Kilda - Trying to be as objective as possible. A holding year for the Saints, but optimistic they are on the right track for the future. If big Marshall goes down, they become almost certainties for a bottom 6 finish.
11. Bulldogs - Have some of the most exciting talent in the competition but consistently fail to harness it. I think this is the season where Bevo finally runs his race. New coach before end of season is firmly on the cards.
12. Suns - Just no faith in them to step up and become consistent performers. Will improve, but so will others around them.
13. Port Adelaide - Port fans will finally get their wish, a new coach by Round 14/15. This group has run its race under Ken.
14. Melbourne - Too much left to too few. If 2 or more of Gawn, Petracca, May or Lever go down with injury for long periods, they are bottom 4. Will be the 4th coach to be shown the door by season's end.
15. North - A critical mass of talent on the list which now has between 30-80 games under their belt. If Parker stays fit and in form for at least 16 games, they will win at least twice as many games as they managed last season.
16. Essendon - Still a long way to go. I have my doubts about the coach. Still trying to figure out how to climb out of the saga-induced doldrums the whole club finds themself in.
17. Eagles - In most seasons they would be a lock for the spoon.
18. Richmond - I have real concerns for this group. The exodus has been massive. I'm sure they have drafted top shelf talent, but who shows them the way? Which experienced players do you really trust to teach the young ones what AFL training standards looks like? In for a decade of pain.
1. Hawthorn - on the rise, chock full of confidence, and bestowed with large amounts of self-belief from a terrific coach. A couple of very handy inclusions to stiffen up their key position stocks. All things being equal with injuries, their rise will continue at a similar rate to last year.
2. Carlton - now or never. If they can get their injury management under control, they are too good not to be at the pointy end.
3. Geelong - the most consistent team of our generation will keep on keeping on.
4. Collingwood - will bounce back strongly after a disappointing 2024. Good depth across all lines. Ageing, but enough fire power to give it one more shot.
5. Fremantle - have invested in youth, with plenty entering their prime. I have a feeling their home ground will become a real fortress this year. Will only need to win a handful on the road to be right in Top 4 calculations.
6. Sydney - a bit of a dip year. Will be energised by a new coach and new voice, but some scars must remain.
7. GWS - so much talent, but ability to deliver consistently week in week out troubles me. Toby another year older.
8. Lions - they have been up for so long, with a shortened pre-season and the loss of Daniher. I think there will be plenty of speed humps for Brisbane this year. An imposing home ground advantage should see them sneak into September action.
9. Crows - I find them very hard to place. Still too many deficiencies in their list to make a real impact. This is probably at the upper end of when I see them finishing. Coach to lose his job at season end.
10. St Kilda - Trying to be as objective as possible. A holding year for the Saints, but optimistic they are on the right track for the future. If big Marshall goes down, they become almost certainties for a bottom 6 finish.
11. Bulldogs - Have some of the most exciting talent in the competition but consistently fail to harness it. I think this is the season where Bevo finally runs his race. New coach before end of season is firmly on the cards.
12. Suns - Just no faith in them to step up and become consistent performers. Will improve, but so will others around them.
13. Port Adelaide - Port fans will finally get their wish, a new coach by Round 14/15. This group has run its race under Ken.
14. Melbourne - Too much left to too few. If 2 or more of Gawn, Petracca, May or Lever go down with injury for long periods, they are bottom 4. Will be the 4th coach to be shown the door by season's end.
15. North - A critical mass of talent on the list which now has between 30-80 games under their belt. If Parker stays fit and in form for at least 16 games, they will win at least twice as many games as they managed last season.
16. Essendon - Still a long way to go. I have my doubts about the coach. Still trying to figure out how to climb out of the saga-induced doldrums the whole club finds themself in.
17. Eagles - In most seasons they would be a lock for the spoon.
18. Richmond - I have real concerns for this group. The exodus has been massive. I'm sure they have drafted top shelf talent, but who shows them the way? Which experienced players do you really trust to teach the young ones what AFL training standards looks like? In for a decade of pain.
After much thought, I have reduced the list of potential 2025 premiers to the following three teams:
Hawthorn - Their football was as good as anyone's in 2024, and have bolstered their defence with Battle and Barrass. The first part of the season will be the test for them without Dear or Lewis (Sicily spends most of his time forward?), but if they can work their way through that period, they should be the premiership favourites for mine.
GWS - Have been thereabouts in recent years without being able to put it all together, but have that great mix of talent and X-Factor. Hogan has become the best tall forward in the game and don't underestimate the impact Stringer can have as a fourth stringer (pardon the pun) to Hogan, Greene and the emerging Cadman in the forward line.
Collingwood - The 2023 Premiers will return to the mix in 2025, with the deepest list in the competition - bolstered by the inclusion of Houston, Perryman, and to a lesser extent Membrey (who we certainly could have used in 2024, but sense he will be little more than insurance in 2025). Injury clouds continue to surround De Goey and Mitchell, and they both need to be back to play key roles at the pointy end in 2025, but this team just has the depth and versatility that others don't.
I'm very confident in putting 4 units on Hawthorn, 3 units on each of GWS and Collingwood, and tripling my money when one of them salutes. Gamble responsibly.
Other teams that are widely favoured, but I have excluded, are as follows:
Fremantle - I love the team they are building, but the depth just isn't there for mine. We saw how quickly they fell away at the end of last season when Treacy, Pearce and Darcy all went down, and Darcy for one simply hasn't shown the durability that inspires confidence. Far too much needs to go right for this team to win the flag, and I just can't see it happening.
Geelong - I picked them for 2nd in my Ladder Predictor, but again I just don't think they're ready to win the flag. We saw how important Hawkins and Selwood were to them in the first half of the 2022 Grand Final, and players like that just can't be replaced. Will win a lot of games in 2025, but I don't think they have what it takes to go all the way.
Sydney - New coach and difficult to back up from a Grand Final thrashing. Building a great list but need McDonald and Amartey to take the next step. Just think they will struggle with consistency in 2025 and will fall to the bottom half of the top 8.
Brisbane - we have seen from the 2021, 2022 and 2023 premiers how difficult it is to back it up, and don't underestimate the loss of Daniher. Expect to see another slow start from them but also expect them to finish in the bottom half of the top 8 - they're too good not to.
Hawthorn - Their football was as good as anyone's in 2024, and have bolstered their defence with Battle and Barrass. The first part of the season will be the test for them without Dear or Lewis (Sicily spends most of his time forward?), but if they can work their way through that period, they should be the premiership favourites for mine.
GWS - Have been thereabouts in recent years without being able to put it all together, but have that great mix of talent and X-Factor. Hogan has become the best tall forward in the game and don't underestimate the impact Stringer can have as a fourth stringer (pardon the pun) to Hogan, Greene and the emerging Cadman in the forward line.
Collingwood - The 2023 Premiers will return to the mix in 2025, with the deepest list in the competition - bolstered by the inclusion of Houston, Perryman, and to a lesser extent Membrey (who we certainly could have used in 2024, but sense he will be little more than insurance in 2025). Injury clouds continue to surround De Goey and Mitchell, and they both need to be back to play key roles at the pointy end in 2025, but this team just has the depth and versatility that others don't.
I'm very confident in putting 4 units on Hawthorn, 3 units on each of GWS and Collingwood, and tripling my money when one of them salutes. Gamble responsibly.
Other teams that are widely favoured, but I have excluded, are as follows:
Fremantle - I love the team they are building, but the depth just isn't there for mine. We saw how quickly they fell away at the end of last season when Treacy, Pearce and Darcy all went down, and Darcy for one simply hasn't shown the durability that inspires confidence. Far too much needs to go right for this team to win the flag, and I just can't see it happening.
Geelong - I picked them for 2nd in my Ladder Predictor, but again I just don't think they're ready to win the flag. We saw how important Hawkins and Selwood were to them in the first half of the 2022 Grand Final, and players like that just can't be replaced. Will win a lot of games in 2025, but I don't think they have what it takes to go all the way.
Sydney - New coach and difficult to back up from a Grand Final thrashing. Building a great list but need McDonald and Amartey to take the next step. Just think they will struggle with consistency in 2025 and will fall to the bottom half of the top 8.
Brisbane - we have seen from the 2021, 2022 and 2023 premiers how difficult it is to back it up, and don't underestimate the loss of Daniher. Expect to see another slow start from them but also expect them to finish in the bottom half of the top 8 - they're too good not to.
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brb editing my post to say 'potential premiers'
I love that for so many years we were told we were no chance of winning a flag while Daniher was our main target.
Now we are being told his departure is the reason we can no longer contend.
Classic BigFooty.
Now we are being told his departure is the reason we can no longer contend.
Classic BigFooty.
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Ultimately, you won in large part because of him. You don't make the grand final without him.
When the facts change, so do opinions.
Which is exactly what we’ve been saying for years. He was doing it consistently for the Lions since he got here. You wouldn’t know it though. The amount of crap he got was ridiculous.
Now all of a sudden people are realising what a loss he will be. Maybe he was a pretty good player after all?
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Well I was never one of the Daniher bashers so I'm not sure what I can do about that. Hipwood is the one that has mostly copped it. Sometimes harshly.
Given Joe's name was popping up in the AA thread in recent years I think it's been a while since non trolls have failed to recognise how good and important he was.
So yeah not sure why we're shouting about it. Yes it sucks that he's gone.
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1. Carlton.
Contingent entirely on a good run with fitness. I still don't rate their depth, but if the big 6 stay on the park and a few others take the next step (Holland's x2, Motlop) then this is their best chance at success.
2. Hawthorn
Battle and Barrass are MASSIVE inclusions. Newcombe and Day are entering their prime. Watson is an All Australian smokey. Sicily and Moore are underrated leaders who will keep this group on track. Continued improvement from high draft picks Josh Ward, Cam Mackenzie, Connor Macdonald and Josh Weddle.
3. GWS. Always there abouts. Depth worries me now, but these guys seem to always find a way.
4. Fremantle. Not far off it last year despite the end of year hole they fell into. Bolton is a massive inclusion.
5. Brisbane. Small premiership hangover. I don't see them rocketing straight into first place off the back of a flag with Daniher retired and no replacement. Will make a semi-final at a minimum.
6. Geelong. For no other reason than history suggesting I'd be stupid to write them off.
7. Adelaide. Big improvers. Great additions to the list over the off-season. A few younger players ready to explode (Rankine, Thilthorpe).
8. Sydney. Mental scars. Too reliant on 3 star players, and they can't be expected to constantly carry the load.
9. Gold Coast. One more year. This will be as close as they've gotten.
10. Port Adelaide. Houston is a big out. Been up for a while without saluting. Might need a refresh with a new coach.
11. St.Kilda. Constant threat, but will fall short of finals.
12. Collingwood. Very reliant on the older brigade. Would need a lot to go right to be at the pointy end again, despite many having them returning to the top 4.
13. Western Bulldogs. See Port Adelaide. A one-year refresh followed by a top 4 finish in 2026 when Darcy and Sanders start to rip the competition apart.
14. North Melbourne. Finally some improvement. I like the senior leadership they've added. Daniel is an underrated acquisition.
15. Essendon. Genuinely don't see where the improvement comes from just yet.
16. Melbourne. See Port and the Bulldogs, but I'm not as convinced about how quickly things can turn around again.
17. West Coast. Feel like a lock for 17th. Just want to see how Ginbey, Hewett, Chesser and Reid develop this year.
18. Richmond. Tough year ahead. Keen to watch these first year players running around though.
Contingent entirely on a good run with fitness. I still don't rate their depth, but if the big 6 stay on the park and a few others take the next step (Holland's x2, Motlop) then this is their best chance at success.
2. Hawthorn
Battle and Barrass are MASSIVE inclusions. Newcombe and Day are entering their prime. Watson is an All Australian smokey. Sicily and Moore are underrated leaders who will keep this group on track. Continued improvement from high draft picks Josh Ward, Cam Mackenzie, Connor Macdonald and Josh Weddle.
3. GWS. Always there abouts. Depth worries me now, but these guys seem to always find a way.
4. Fremantle. Not far off it last year despite the end of year hole they fell into. Bolton is a massive inclusion.
5. Brisbane. Small premiership hangover. I don't see them rocketing straight into first place off the back of a flag with Daniher retired and no replacement. Will make a semi-final at a minimum.
6. Geelong. For no other reason than history suggesting I'd be stupid to write them off.
7. Adelaide. Big improvers. Great additions to the list over the off-season. A few younger players ready to explode (Rankine, Thilthorpe).
8. Sydney. Mental scars. Too reliant on 3 star players, and they can't be expected to constantly carry the load.
9. Gold Coast. One more year. This will be as close as they've gotten.
10. Port Adelaide. Houston is a big out. Been up for a while without saluting. Might need a refresh with a new coach.
11. St.Kilda. Constant threat, but will fall short of finals.
12. Collingwood. Very reliant on the older brigade. Would need a lot to go right to be at the pointy end again, despite many having them returning to the top 4.
13. Western Bulldogs. See Port Adelaide. A one-year refresh followed by a top 4 finish in 2026 when Darcy and Sanders start to rip the competition apart.
14. North Melbourne. Finally some improvement. I like the senior leadership they've added. Daniel is an underrated acquisition.
15. Essendon. Genuinely don't see where the improvement comes from just yet.
16. Melbourne. See Port and the Bulldogs, but I'm not as convinced about how quickly things can turn around again.
17. West Coast. Feel like a lock for 17th. Just want to see how Ginbey, Hewett, Chesser and Reid develop this year.
18. Richmond. Tough year ahead. Keen to watch these first year players running around though.
Art Vandelay_
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Sorry Dockers fans, Musk's X has spoken. Fremantle success is SPAM.
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Don't the Cats have any decent players, coaches or tactics? You put them 6th but it feels like you wanted to send them to 17th.
(Just joking around before this works as actual rage bait on others)
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I think Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn are going to finish closer to each other than any of their supporters are going to be that happy with. They should be leading the Victorian challenge. People will say the Bulldogs but I find them as unreliable as you do Carlton.
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My revised ladder for 2025:
1. Richmond
2. Carlton
3. Collingwood
4. Melbourne
The rest...
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I know Shaun Mannagh. Super proud of what that guy has achieved.
I haven't rated the Geelong youth for a long time now, but after winning a premiership with an old list, then falling to 12th, I really felt like there was zero chance they could get near finals in 2024. To be 25 points up in a prelim when my expectations were so low means I'm rating the make-up of the side incorrectly.
Dempsey and Humpries are the two younger players I really like.
Bruhn as well, but I'm unsure what his ceiling is.
De Koning has gone backwards a little, but could he end up being a athletic, modern ruck perhaps?
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Interesting.
You've got Melbourne rising from 14th to...well...14th.
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Mannagh was brilliant once he settled into the seniors. His numbers were actually elite and he ripped apart the QF. Shame that he misfired during the prelim but that can happen - it was actually a lot of our player's first ever knockout final: Neale, Mannagh, Humphries, Dempsey, O.Henry, Bruhn, Bowes etc. Besides Henry and to a degree Humphries, they had a tough night but most had good seasons.
Holmes is obviously our best young player but if you get the best of Henry he's going to end up better than a lot of outsiders think. Dempsey has so much talent but didn't play a lot of footy growing up, so we're just starting to see it at senior level now. But as an attacking wingman with so few games, he was exceptional.
We need some of our young talls like Neale, SDK and Conway to advance. SDK maybe as a utility, but he must first find his mojo. And we need Bruhn to take a step up, especially in consistency and simply getting time on ground similar to experienced mids. It's time to stop babying him with 60% game time etc.
Our kids aren't a huge issue, it's just that the top end of senior players can't carry them anymore. Cameron is a jet when he pulls his finger out. Dangerfield and Stewart still elite in bursts - Tom could still have an AA squad year I think. The rest are retired or just bit part players on the fringe of the team now.
I think we'll be thereabouts but progression isn't always linear and it can't just be assumed everyone 25 or under has a better season in 2025. The 26 and above group should give us something similar.
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I meant to include Holmes as well, of course. The pick of the bunch for sure.
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Showing very good signs first as a wingman and then as a half back/utility. But we're at the stage where we probably need him to develop as a full time midfielder - which he was in those finals he was excelling in, to be fair.
Big seasons from Holmes and Smith in midfield would likely see us top 4. Otherwise we are expecting way too much from a very old Dangerfield.
