20th AFL Team

[Johnny Bananas]

I'm not saying there won't be an impact, just that the AFL should be very wary about making policy based on vague predictions that are not the consensus.

Eg. Not start a Cairns team purely because in 50 years the entire region will be uninhabitable.

The consensus is that extreme weather events will increase and average temperatures will increase. I have not said any particular area will be uninhabitable, but it's clear that the far north is already extremely hot and prone to cyclones, and if that increases, it may be a less attractive place to live than it is now. I am suggesting that this should be a consideration in deciding whether a team for Northern Australia should be established.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I don't think climate change will be as big a factor as population will.

Tampa and Miami are both in frequent hurricane zones, but they've both got roofed MLB stadiums designed to be hurricane-resistant.

If Darwin or Cairns had a population of six million, the AFL would already be lobbying for cyclone-proof roofed stadiums.

The bigger issue (in terms of climate change) is if it makes these places less habitable, and that in turn keeps their population low. Cyclone-proof stadiums would be costly, and they need the population to justify them.

 

[Coolangatta]

I don't think climate change will be as big a factor as population will.

Tampa and Miami are both in frequent hurricane zones, but they've both got roofed MLB stadiums designed to be hurricane-resistant.

If Darwin or Cairns had a population of six million, the AFL would already be lobbying for cyclone-proof roofed stadiums.

The bigger issue (in terms of climate change) is if it makes these places less habitable, and that in turn keeps their population low. Cyclone-proof stadiums would be costly, and they need the population to justify them.

Well, the other issue could be that it gets too hot to play, but I have no idea how hot that has to be or whether it will ever get to that hot. Although, if it’s too hot to play then there’s probably not going to be enough people living up north in the first place.

In any case, NT or NQ has no chance of being team 20.

If you look at the numbers for Tassie, greater Hobart is about 250k, greater Launceston 75k.

I think Darwin and Alice Springs would have to respectively double their populations to get a look in. That and public transport would have to go through some revolutionary changes to fasten the trip from Darwin to Alice and vice versa.

NQ could get the numbers faster but it sounds like it needs to rely a lot more on Cairns more than the NT has to rely on Darwin.

I wouldn’t rule either of them out of teams 21-22 but as you’ve said yourself, they may look at the Sunshine Coast, Newcastle, NZ etc first. Wouldn’t blame them if the north of Australia isn’t on their radar for a long time.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Well, the other issue could be that it gets too hot to play, but I have no idea how hot that has to be or whether it will ever get to that hot. Although, if it’s too hot to play then there’s probably not going to be enough people living up north in the first place.

In any case, NT or NQ has no chance of being team 20.

Yeah, I definitely didn't mean anything northern for team 20.

Heat is another factor, but 40% of the world's population lives in the tropics, and a bunch more live in the Sahara and Middle East, so I think there'll be a lot of investment in that area. Just like I wouldn't have wanted to move to Cairns in the early 1900s. I reckon they'll have perfected air-conditioned stadiums in the next 50 years. Qatar already used air-conditioning in their stadiums in the 2022 world cup.

But again, it means that the stadiums will be more costly, and therefore need the population to justify it.

I think Darwin and Alice Springs would have to respectively double their populations to get a look in. That and public transport would have to go through some revolutionary changes to fasten the trip from Darwin to Alice and vice versa.

This might sound mean, but I don't think Alice Springs matters for an NT bid, in terms of viability.

As you said, there'd need to be some revolutionary changes to transport. Even if they put high-speed rail in, it'd take six hours from Alice to Darwin.

I absolutely agree with Darwin needing to boom and at least double in population, but I don't think it matters for Alice. Alice will get a couple of crowds of 6k a year. They're not a big part of the puzzle in terms of viability. Alice is purely a feel-good community addition for Central Australia (and that's not a bad thing, I love games there).

 

[The Educator]

I don't think climate change will be as big a factor as population will.

Tampa and Miami are both in frequent hurricane zones, but they've both got roofed MLB stadiums designed to be hurricane-resistant.

If Darwin or Cairns had a population of six million, the AFL would already be lobbying for cyclone-proof roofed stadiums.

The bigger issue (in terms of climate change) is if it makes these places less habitable, and that in turn keeps their population low. Cyclone-proof stadiums would be costly, and they need the population to justify them.

This is broadly sensible so I liked it. But I am assuming what you mean by "cyclone proof stadiums" is stadiums that aren't ripped apart by cat 5 cyclones?

Obviously if there was an actual cyclone the game would be called off / moved / post-poned.

 

[Coolangatta]

Yeah, I definitely didn't mean anything northern for team 20.

Heat is another factor, but 40% of the world's population lives in the tropics, and a bunch more live in the Sahara and Middle East, so I think there'll be a lot of investment in that area. Just like I wouldn't have wanted to move to Cairns in the early 1900s. I reckon they'll have perfected air-conditioned stadiums in the next 50 years. Qatar already used air-conditioning in their stadiums in the 2022 world cup.

But again, it means that the stadiums will be more costly, and therefore need the population to justify it.



This might sound mean, but I don't think Alice Springs matters for an NT bid, in terms of viability.

As you said, there'd need to be some revolutionary changes to transport. Even if they put high-speed rail in, it'd take six hours from Alice to Darwin.

I absolutely agree with Darwin needing to boom and at least double in population, but I don't think it matters for Alice. Alice will get a couple of crowds of 6k a year. They're not a big part of the puzzle in terms of viability. Alice is purely a feel-good community addition for Central Australia (and that's not a bad thing, I love games there).

Yeah, they’d still probably play a couple of games in Alice because of the wet season in Darwin, but they definitely wouldn’t justify a 7-4 split like Hobart has with Launceston.

Would really like to see teams based in Darwin and Cairns one day, but while the heart says teams 21-22, my head says teams 23-24 if it gets that far, which I think it will if expansion clubs succeed. That’s only gonna encourage the AFL.

 

[Canberra Pear]

This is broadly sensible so I liked it. But I am assuming what you mean by "cyclone proof stadiums" is stadiums that aren't ripped apart by cat 5 cyclones?

Obviously if there was an actual cyclone the game would be called off / moved / post-poned.

Yes, definitely. I mean a stadium that they won't have to rebuild each time a cyclone hits.

I definitely don’t recommend playing during one (and the travel to and from would be incredibly dangerous).

 

[_Cerberus_]

I think Darwin and Alice Springs would have to respectively double their populations to get a look in. That and public transport would have to go through some revolutionary changes to fasten the trip from Darwin to Alice and vice versa.

I think the fact that both areas are way too far a part from each other, there is next to no chance they will share games in the way Hobart and Launceston will be when a TAS team comes in. Alice Springs might get a couple of games at best. But Darwin will have to support the team on their own. Currently has too little a population, and lacks decent infrastructure to be able to hold a team on their own. The costs vs benefits might not be sustainable unless the AFL is willing to prop them up for a few decades. As much as it will "complete" the league nationally. I cannot see them getting a team soon.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I think the fact that both areas are way too far a part from each other, there is next to no chance they will share games in the way Hobart and Launceston will be when a TAS team comes in. Alice Springs might get a couple of games at best. But Darwin will have to support the team on their own. Currently has too little a population, lacks decent infrastructure to be able to hold a team on their own. The costs vs benefits might not be sustainable unless the AFL is willing to prop them up for a few decades. As much as it will "complete" the league nationally. I cannot see them getting a team soon.

Summed it up perfectly. Their own scoping report said they'd have a $15m annual funding gap.

If people were pissed about GWS and Gold Coast receiving $25m/year (barely more than the smaller Victorian teams), hard to see the AFL funding $40m/year being an easy sell.

 

[Coolangatta]

I think the fact that both areas are way too far a part from each other, there is next to no chance they will share games in the way Hobart and Launceston will be when a TAS team comes in. Alice Springs might get a couple of games at best. But Darwin will have to support the team on their own. Currently has too little a population, and lacks decent infrastructure to be able to hold a team on their own. The costs vs benefits might not be sustainable unless the AFL is willing to prop them up for a few decades. As much as it will "complete" the league nationally. I cannot see them getting a team soon.

Yeah, I think it’d be a 9-2 split of games, with Alice Springs getting a couple because Darwin’s weather prevents them from playing 11 games. Even if they could, I still think AS would get one game as a secondary market and show of territorian solidarity.

I think the AFL would certainly prop up the NT, it’d be popular, but not smart as team 20, because that’s 50+ years of propping up.

Now I could be wrong but could Darwin reach the population Hobart now has by the 2050s? If so, I think the NT would be a popular candidate for team 21, and the AFL would prop them up for at least 20 years.

A lot of things have to go right in terms of population, climate mitigation, and the success of expansion clubs 17-20, but the ACT and NT really would “complete” the national profile of the game, and that would be nice.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Yeah, I think it’d be a 9-2 split of games, with Alice Springs getting a couple because Darwin’s weather prevents them from playing 11 games. Even if they could, I still think AS would get one game as a secondary market and show of territorian solidarity.

I think the AFL would certainly prop up the NT, it’d be popular, but not smart as team 20, because that’s 50+ years of propping up.

Now I could be wrong but could Darwin reach the population Hobart now has by the 2050s? If so, I think the NT would be a popular candidate for team 21, and the AFL would prop them up for at least 20 years.

A lot of things have to go right in terms of population, climate mitigation, and the success of expansion clubs 17-20, but the ACT and NT really would “complete” the national profile of the game, and that would be nice.

Sorry in advance for the numbers-heavy post. TL;DR, Darwin's growing too slowly.

The government always has high ambitions for Darwin's population, but it never grows as fast as they want.

The NT government prediction had them going from 127k-164k from 2010-2020. Growing by about 3700 people a year.

But the 2021 census had them at 140k, which means they grew at about 1200 people a year - less than a third as fast as predicted.

You'd assume it would pick up pace as the overall size grows (keep in mind I'm not a demographer), but at the rate of the last decade, Darwin would hit Hobart's 247k in 89 years. If they had the pace they were aiming for in the previous prediction, they'd hit it smack bang on 2050.

I also think given Darwin's isolation (there's no 100k city three hours down the road), means it needs a higher population than Hobart to be viable.

In conclusion, the simplest solution is SA reabsorbing the NT, then every major state and territory can be represented.

 

[The Educator]

The consensus is that extreme weather events will increase and average temperatures will increase. I have not said any particular area will be uninhabitable, but it's clear that the far north is already extremely hot and prone to cyclones, and if that increases, it may be a less attractive place to live than it is now. I am suggesting that this should be a consideration in deciding whether a team for Northern Australia should be established.

Just a heads up, I think everybody else was on the same page but you. Nobody said that you said "any particular area will be uninhabitable" they were just saying there is considerable uncertainty as to how climate change will play out in different regions even though there is consensus on the "macro" impact of climate change.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Just a heads up, I think everybody else was on the same page but you.

Cool. I don't care.

 

[Coolangatta]

Sorry in advance for the numbers-heavy post. TL;DR, Darwin's growing too slowly.

The government always has high ambitions for Darwin's population, but it never grows as fast as they want.

The NT government prediction had them going from 127k-164k from 2010-2020. Growing by about 3700 people a year.

But the 2021 census had them at 140k, which means they grew at about 1200 people a year - less than a third as fast as predicted.

You'd assume it would pick up pace as the overall size grows (keep in mind I'm not a demographer), but at the rate of the last decade, Darwin would hit Hobart's 247k in 89 years. If they had the pace they were aiming for in the previous prediction, they'd hit it smack bang on 2050.

I also think given Darwin's isolation (there's no 100k city three hours down the road), means it needs a higher population than Hobart to be viable.

In conclusion, the simplest solution is SA reabsorbing the NT, then every major state and territory can be represented.

Interesting.

If that ever happened, a reunification of SA and the NT, wouldn’t a Central Crocs team make some sense for expansion in 25+ years? 7 games in Adelaide, 3 in Darwin, 1 in Alice Springs?

Too much travel for the team? Lack of identity problems? Not enough home games in Adelaide? At least it’d create a permanent secondary market for Darwin and Alice Springs, getting VIC clubs and the Gold Coast out of there and focusing on their own states.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Interesting.

If that ever happened, a reunification of SA and the NT, wouldn’t a Central Crocs team make some sense for expansion in 25+ years? 7 games in Adelaide, 3 in Darwin, 1 in Alice Springs?

Too much travel for the team? Lack of identity problems? Not enough home games in Adelaide? At least it’d create a permanent secondary market for Darwin and Alice Springs, getting VIC clubs and the Gold Coast out of there and focusing on their own states.

Central Dingos would be a cool name too. TBH, if they were based in Adelaide and having the NT as a permanent secondary market then they’d be better served by just pissing Alice Springs off and having a 7-4 split.

 

[Coolangatta]

Central Dingos would be a cool name too. TBH, if they were based in Adelaide and having the NT as a permanent secondary market then they’d be better served by just pissing Alice Springs off and having a 7-4 split.

Hmm. Canberra Rams, Perth Sharks, Central Dingos (Adelaide-Darwin 7-4 split), Queensland Crocs (SC-Cairns 7-4 split). Not bad. Throw Newcastle into that mix, or more likely, North Sydney-Newcastle split if co-locations work out well.

 

[RedV3x]

a reunification of SA and the NT, wouldn’t...

mean a thing as it's the target population that counts

 

[Canberra Pear]

Interesting.

If that ever happened, a reunification of SA and the NT, wouldn’t a Central Crocs team make some sense for expansion in 25+ years? 7 games in Adelaide, 3 in Darwin, 1 in Alice Springs?

Too much travel for the team? Lack of identity problems? Not enough home games in Adelaide? At least it’d create a permanent secondary market for Darwin and Alice Springs, getting VIC clubs and the Gold Coast out of there and focusing on their own states.

Sorry, that SA/NT line was meant firmly tongue in cheek.

It won't happen, I just meant that something crazy like that would happen before Darwin had enough people.

 

[Coolangatta]

Sorry, that SA/NT line was meant firmly tongue in cheek.

It won't happen, I just meant that something crazy like that would happen before Darwin had enough people.

Haha, got it.

I guess there's no point in thinking beyond 20 teams, yet, as that would be at least another 30 years away and a lot can happen between now and then.

 

[Tigerlaird]

Another NSW team would be good for the game. Newcastle.

 

[Saucy]

Tasmania comes in as Team 19.

Relocate North to Canberra. Canberra Kangaroos.

Perth Miners come in as Team 20.

 

[Coolangatta]

Tasmania comes in as Team 19.

Relocate North to Canberra. Canberra Kangaroos.

Perth Miners come in as Team 20.

Perth Miners, eh. I like the sound of that. I think Perth Pirates would be a good one, too. Start them off with 3 home games at Arena Joondalup, make the north of Perth what Canberra is to the Giants until they perhaps become big enough to play full time at Optus.

Canberra and WA3 are the clear frontrunners for team 20, but that is the way you could have both. The AFL can't force North to move, but they can make life hard for them and push them to relocate, but it looks like North will dig its heels in and stay, same with St Kilda.

Whoever doesn't get up out of Canberra or WA3, I hope they're part of the future expansion to teams 21 and 22. WA3 could be team 22 to even up the numbers as a safe option for whoever team 21 is, but if they get the nod for team 20, surely Canberra would be the frontrunner for team 21, unless the Giants are gonna park their asses there forever.

 

[Tigerlaird]

Dolphins should form a super club, where they share the franchise name, logo and colours across multiple codes.

Dolphins AFL will basically be the same as their NRL team. Same colours, same song and same national appeal. #PhinsUp

 

[The Educator]

Dolphins should form a super club, where they share the franchise name, logo and colours across multiple codes.

Dolphins AFL will basically be the same as their NRL team. Same colours, same song and same national appeal. #PhinsUp

One of the worst ideas

An NRL franchise that is guaranteed to be a small one (as much as so many were sucked in to the novelty) is the dumbest base to construct an AFL club from

 

[1990crow]

Capitalising on the Queensland upswell in participation and interest should be in the AFLs thinking.

Canberra is the logical place for the 20th team - strengthen the Victoria to Sydney corridor whilst ensuring GWS focus on Western Sydney.

Then a North relocation to Sunshine Coast would be a good idea for mine.

StKilda relocation to Newcastle after that to continue the NSW growth.

By that time maybe teams 21 and 22 can commence discussion with WA3, SA3 and maybe NT the possible locations.