AFL Grand Final AFL 2021 GRAND FINAL - Demons v Dogs Sat September 25th 7:15pm EST / 5:15pm WST (Optus) Congratulations Demons! 🍾🏆 Match Highlights in OP

Who will win and by how much?

  • Demons by a goal or less

    Votes: 16 4.4%

  • Dogs by a goal or less

    Votes: 16 4.4%

  • Demons by 7 - 20

    Votes: 132 36.4%

  • Dogs by 7 - 20

    Votes: 108 29.8%

  • Demons by a lot

    Votes: 50 13.8%

  • Dogs by a lot

    Votes: 33 9.1%

  • Draw

    Votes: 9 2.5%
  • Total voters
    363
  • Poll closed .

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demondavey said:
Paper means nothing, I get that. But our ruckman just kicked 5 in a PF and is an AA and May is an AA full back.
Click to expand...
Yeah, even though doing that was great by Max and i think he is a very good footballer and bloke, but does not mean anything when it comes to past match(s)
 
Gysberts2Bate said:
R19 was a wet slog, unless it rains again there’s not a lot to take out of it. We struggled against the Hawks in similar conditions the previous week. The big learning from that game was to not concede 37 points from forward stoppages and not give away so many stupid free kicks. Not sure how much the Lever/Naughton stuff played into it given Lever still had 15 intercepts and we had more marks inside forward 50. I’d expect Petty to go to Naughton this time with no Bruce, and I don’t see Schache and English keeping Lever and May accountable on a dry day. Dogs will have to belt us in the middle.
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Agree there isn't a heap to take out of R19, given the Dogs will be replacing the likes of Garcia, Richards and Scott with Dunkley, Treloar and Martin. Midfield is completely different.
 

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Outback Footy said:
Yep, of course we could easily have finished higher and saved ourselves the work we’ve done. So what? We didn’t finish 1 or 2 so we’ve had to do it hard. I don’t live in fantasy land, I’m reflecting on the reality.
And you’ve reinforced my point. We did have a tough game in Brisbane. They play completely differently at home. Much harder to beat there than Adelaide. Your mobs had too easy a run. Better luck next year 👍
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I don’t see how we’ve had an easier run. You flogged Essendon and Port and played a tight one two weeks ago. It’s pretty even.
 
Angus Young said:
How do you pick this game...
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Melbourne have everything in their favour. Settled in Perth for weeks, clean bill of health and continuity in the group. Been saying it since about round 8, if they don't win the flag after the run they've had this year, it'd be a pretty significant failure and kick in the guts to their fans.
 
Magic number this week is 5

Western bulldogs 2016 62 year drought

5 year difference

Potentially Melbourne 2021 57 year drought

62-57= 5 year difference
demons flag confirmed

christian Petracca number 5 to have a blinder and win norm smith
Gawn to kick 5 goals or another demon forward
Demons to win by 5 points or 5 goals
 
JXB said:
So you had a really "tough" lead up to the Brisbane Game by beating the worst team in the finals by 49 points and getting through the game without any injuries
In comparison, Brisbane played us, where they lost convincingly, and had one of their key structural players in Mcstay getting injured.
You definitely had the better lead into that game and you still only managed to scrape by with a 1 point win
Melbourne on the other hand beat Brisbane by 33 points while also kicking 15 points so probably would have been a 50-60 point win if we kicked accurately
Quite the difference between the two teams against Brisbane

On the point of both teams having an easy run into the granny. The Doggies have only played 1 more game than the Dees in the past month but that should be obsolete considering both teams will have a 2-week break in preparation for the granny. No team has an advantage in terms of the lead-in
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The truth is that in sports, all sports, including AFL, the axiom of transitivity does not work. GO DOGS!!!
 
demondavey said:
I don’t see how we’ve had an easier run. You flogged Essendon and Port and played a tight one two weeks ago. It’s pretty even.
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Week 1 you beat Briz easily in Adelaide - We beat Essendon easily in Launceston
Week 2 you have a holiday, travel to Perth to quarantine early - We stayed in quarantine, travelled to Briz, played Briz in front of a home crowd, tough game, injuries
Week 3 you stay in Perth, you beat Geelong easily - We stayed in quarantine, travelled briz-perth-adelaide, played PA in front of a home crowd, easy win
Week 4 - both have a week off, you stay in Perth, we fly Adelaide-Perth, quarantine again
Week 5 GF

OK, I see how identical those programmes are. No worries.
 
Some one out there might know. How many teams have won consecutive interstate finals (against teams on their home turf) to make the GF? If so did they win it? Adelaide did in 1998, but not sure if there are any ones.
 
maxiboy238 said:
Magic number this week is 5

Western bulldogs 2016 62 year drought

5 year difference

Potentially Melbourne 2021 57 year drought

62-57= 5 year difference
demons flag confirmed

christian Petracca number 5 to have a blinder and win norm smith
Gawn to kick 5 goals or another demon forward
Demons to win by 5 points or 5 goals
Click to expand...
1632109407411.gif
 

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gordo2016 said:
Some one out there might know. How many teams have won consecutive interstate finals (against teams on their home turf) to make the GF? If so did they win it? Adelaide did in 1998, but not sure if there are any ones.
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Just checked. They played Sydney at the SCG then you at the G. They did not play one game at Adelaide Oval.

Melbourne - MCG
Sydney - SCG
WB - MCG
North - MCG

That’s impressive.
 
In round one. Lowest ranked losers are out. Highest ranked winners go to PF.

Round two - lowest ranked winners play highest ranked losers.

Round 3 - PF

Round 4 - GF

Taking 1998 for example under our current system, it would have been (with my predictions).

QF -
North v Melbourne - North
WB v Syd - WB

EF -
Adelaide v Essendon - Adelaide
St Kilda v WC - St Kilda

SF -
Melbourne v Adelaide - Melbourne
Sydney v St Kilda - Sydney

PF -
WB v Melbourne (50/50)
North v Sydney (North)

GF
Don’t reckon Adelaide!
 
Whoever cleaned this thread out is a hero.

One player who's going under the radar but I reckon is going to have a big say on the outcome of the game is Josh Dunkley. Libba's well recognised as our ball winning beast who feeds the ball to the rest of our midfield, but Dunkley's the defensive-minded mid whose presence around the ball enables our Bont and Macrae to focus more on their attacking play.

Of all midfielders this year, he's 2nd in one percenters, and equal 1st in non-spoil one percenters (with Bont). Add that to his tackle and pressure act numbers and the man is a nightmare for opposition midfielders.

When he got injured it was obvious our midfield struggled to adjust without his defensive presence - particularly the very next game against Richmond, who waltzed out of the middle under no pressure the whole second half. Horrible game for us. Eye test aside, I was curious to see the correlation between his presence/absence and our team's contested possession differential. Pretty clear, as it turns out:

Bulldogs Contested Possession Differential Average 2021:
  • With Dunkley: +13.7
  • Without Dunkley: -1.4
  • With In-Form Dunkley: +25.2
Adding the last one feels like some selective stat manipulation, but it only includes the first 6 weeks of the season (when I think he was top 5 in AFL Player Ratings) and the most recent 3 games, where he's been close to back at his best.

A few footy analysts have pointed out that in the two games against Melbourne this year we lost the contested possession count by 18 and 23 as evidence they have the wood on us in the middle. I think the pretty crucial omission in that is the fact Dunkley missed both games. Now I've experienced far too much Bulldog heartache in my life to be that confident about winning on Saturday - but an in-form Dunkley making life hard for Oliver and Petracca (and having a genuine ruckman) will certainly make the midfield battle look very different to what it was earlier in the year. Can't wait.
 
demondavey said:
Just checked. They played Sydney at the SCG then you at the G. They did not play one game at Adelaide Oval.

Melbourne - MCG
Sydney - SCG
WB - MCG
North - MCG

That’s impressive.
Click to expand...
Yer that is very impressive. I think finals are finals, they might look easy to supporters when you win well but the players will say they are never easy. People can argue who has had the easier run out of Melbourne and the Dogs, but it is hard to tell. Any finals win is a good win. Both teams are at the top of their games, and in my opinion this game is 50/50. Both teams have stars that could turn the game. I hope the Dogs win, but it is going to take a supreme effort to do it.
 
Mahama said:
Whoever cleaned this thread out is a hero.

One player who's going under the radar but I reckon is going to have a big say on the outcome of the game is Josh Dunkley. Libba's well recognised as our ball winning beast who feeds the ball to the rest of our midfield, but Dunkley's the defensive-minded mid whose presence around the ball enables our Bont and Macrae to focus more on their attacking play.

Of all midfielders this year, he's 2nd in one percenters, and equal 1st in non-spoil one percenters (with Bont). Add that to his tackle and pressure act numbers and the man is a nightmare for opposition midfielders.

When he got injured it was obvious our midfield struggled to adjust without his defensive presence - particularly the very next game against Richmond, who waltzed out of the middle under no pressure the whole second half. Horrible game for us. Eye test aside, I was curious to see the correlation between his presence/absence and our team's contested possession differential. Pretty clear, as it turns out:

Bulldogs Contested Possession Differential Average 2021:
  • With Dunkley: +13.7
  • Without Dunkley: -1.4
  • With In-Form Dunkley: +25.2
Adding the last one feels like some selective stat manipulation, but it only includes the first 6 weeks of the season (when I think he was top 5 in AFL Player Ratings) and the most recent 3 games, where he's been close to back at his best.

A few footy analysts have pointed out that in the two games against Melbourne this year we lost the contested possession count by 18 and 23 as evidence they have the wood on us in the middle. I think the pretty crucial omission in that is the fact Dunkley missed both games. Now I've experienced far too much Bulldog heartache in my life to be that confident about winning on Saturday - but an in-form Dunkley making life hard for Oliver and Petracca (and having a genuine ruckman) will certainly make the midfield battle look very different to what it was earlier in the year. Can't wait.
Click to expand...
That’s a very good post. Your midfield is going to be a handful. Langdon, Harmes and Brayshaw will need to be very active from a defensive aspect for us I feel.
 
Like the players, I've rested up for a week and I'm ready to devote every waking second between now and ~10pm Saturday night to this game.

I'll say what I've said most of the year, and that is while we have been the best team in the comp, the Doggies are the one side whose best on their day is at least as good as ours, potentially better.

So much is going to come down to the middle of the park. I was at the game last year at Metricon where the Doggies absolutely cut us up with spread from the contest all day long. If we can get the ball moving our way out of the middle, we can defend from the front better than anyone. We need to get the Doggies rushing kicks and being set up for the intercept, or forcing them slow down the line and start again. If they start running through us with any success, we might be in trouble.
 
We have improved the personnel on our previous meeting and Melbourne are basically the same (Bowey for Hunt is the only change)

For us

Bruce replaced by Gardner with possibly Schache moving forward
Ed Richards replaced by Easton Wood
Riley Garcia replaced by Josh Dunkley
Jamarra replaced by Stef Martin
Anthony Scott replaced by Adam Treloar

plus Alex Keath likely to play more than 10 minutes and instead of Zaine Cordy

We are certainly an improved team on personnel.

Wood, Dunkley, Martin, Gardner and Treloar were all missing from the first meeting as well.
 
If I remember correctly from that Round 19 game, Max Gawn just kept continually grabbing it out of the ruck and kicking it forward, to the point where it was obvious he knew he had the edge on English and it was a deliberate tactic. Just checked the stats and he had equal most clearances on the ground that day.

While I'm not sure it helped or hindered, it does mean the midfield battle is going to look a lot different this time around with Stef Martin.
 
A very different game from our last two encounters. Melbourne better the first time but dogs had a ton of bewildering turnovers with many not even under any pressure. Dogs better the second game but the wet weather was to our advantage. I don't expect either to happen this time. Not to mention the first time a crowd can finally watch them go head to head.

Now the dogs have some important inclusions that they didn't have last time. Melbourne have had a better preperation and continuity (some people use that as a strike against saying they haven't been challenged but that's just credit to their fitness team). Really could go either way.

Hope it's a proper contest instead of a blowout either way like a lot of the last few grand finals have been.
 
I'm not taking to much away from the previous meeting in round 19, Melbourne where in a weird period drawing to Hawthorn, losing at home to GWS, just scathing past Essendon, lost at home to Collingwood. I think Goodwin was just experimenting what kind of forward set up to implement, what way to deliver the ball inside 50, Melbourne look a completely different side from then on.
 
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