Preview AFL Round 5 - Western Bulldogs v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 7:40PM Saturday 27 April

[Strangled Cat]

We haven't been flat track bullies for a long time, and not that we ever really were in our prime, because we pretty much beat everyone anyway, but the real difference was that as an all-conquering team we never really had anything to prove. The time has arrived, with a lot of new young players in the side who are fighting for a spot in the 22, and having our worst season since 2006, to really stamp our authority once more on the competition.

We are as lethal as any team in regards to firepower up forward, and with our new found speed through the guts, we have as much if not more potential than we have ever had to pile on goals. I expect Mots to put on a clinic next week, as do I expect Hawkins to wake from his slumber and kick a bag. Taylor Hunt's rich vein of form will carry through to next week where he'll kick a few whilst running with one of the Dogs on ballers.

I feel for the Dogs, as do I feel for some of the other struggling clubs. I really don't want to sound condescending even though I know that's quite difficult with what I'm about to say, but from what I saw today the Dogs were woeful. They weren't Melbournesque woeful, but they were still woeful nonetheless. They lacked bite, struggled a lot more than the Crows in the wet conditions, which resulted in them losing confidence and then losing their way completely. Drop your bundle against our hungry, talented and supremely fit young players, and you'll be eaten alive.

Cats by 11 goals.

 

[FredLeDeux]

We haven't been flat track bullies for a long time, and not that we ever really were in our prime, because we pretty much beat everyone anyway, but the real difference was that as an all-conquering team we never really had anything to prove. The time has arrived, with a lot of new young players in the side who are fighting for a spot in the 22, and having our worst season since 2006, to really stamp our authority once more on the competition.

We are as lethal as any team in regards to firepower up forward, and with our new found speed through the guts, we have as much if not more potential than we have ever had to pile on goals. I expect Mots to put on a clinic next week, as do I expect Hawkins to wake from his slumber and kick a bag. Taylor Hunt's rich vein of form will carry through to next week where he'll kick a few whilst running with one of the Dogs on ballers.

I feel for the Dogs, as do I feel for some of the other struggling clubs. I really don't want to sound condescending even though I know that's quite difficult with what I'm about to say, but from what I saw today the Dogs were woeful. They weren't Melbournesque woeful, but they were still woeful nonetheless. They lacked bite, struggled a lot more than the Crows in the wet conditions, which resulted in them losing confidence and then losing their way completely. Drop your bundle against our hungry, talented and supremely fit young players, and you'll be eaten alive.

Cats by 11 goals.

So there you have it, Scraggers.
Attila and his hordes are on their way.
And they've taken to cannibalism.

 

[Strangled Cat]

So there you have it, Scraggers.
Attila and his hordes are on their way.
And they've taken to cannibalism.

Perhaps, or you could just look at it as though it were an alternate universe, whereby young domestic felidae regularly consume dogs. That's how I see it anyway.

 

[Vdubs]

Absolutely. I'm glad someone else sees it. This is not the time to ease up and cancel September holidays. There's a long way to go. First item of business, indeed the only item - is to approach this week with the utmost seriousness and hopefully pummel the Dogs into oblivion.

Look at the ladder. Essendon's percentage is 180, Port's is 159. Ours is 112. People think we don't need to increase our percentage???

A four quarter, utterly ruthless display should be the only thing we want.

One loss and on % we could be out of the 8.

 

[Vdubs]

What changes do we envisage?

Kelly will probably return. Is it time to rest one of the oldies in Chapman or Corey? Can we afford to perhaps rest a couple and bring Guthrie in? Surely Blicavs is due for a rest as well?

Blicavs has had 8 days, what's wrong with you??1

 

[footscore]

I fear for the Doggie defenders, Hawkins is going to kick 10 goals and Podsiadly will continue to do the team thing and push up field, down back and give off a few.

That's overconfident thinking isn't it

 

[ousitgarn]

For everyone who keeps referencing our low percentage during the first half of the 2011 H&A Season:

Geelong 2011 H&A F/A progressive percentage
Round 01: 102.13%
Round 02: 109.6%
Round 03: 154.2%
Round 04: 153.15%
Round 05: 142.81%
Round 07: 153.28%
Round 08: 146.5%
Round 09: 138.3%
Round 10: 144.48%
Round 11: 147.65%
Round 12: 143.26%
Round 13: 142.89%
Round 14: 145.11%
Round 15: 139.77%
Round 16: 135.73%
Round 17: 135.1%
Round 18: 138.47%
Round 19: 150.97%
Round 20: 160.42%
Round 21: 157.67%
Round 23: 153.19%
Round 24: 157.38%

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

In 2011, we were miles behind Collingwood for percentage and there was even a chance that Hawthorn could have caught us on percentage, until the Melbourne and Gold Coast games. And in those games, J.Hunt and Pods, then Enright and Ottens missed. Percentage, ultimately, didn't matter that year, because we finished with a unique W-L ratio within the league. Which happened in eight of the last ten years. So, 80% of the time in the past decade, our percentage was irrelevant. The other two times, it was the difference between a home final against Melbourne at the MCG and...um...an away final against Melbourne at the MCG; and last year a home final against Fremantle and a home final against North Melbourne. In other words, pretty close to insignificant.

We were bemoaning the inability to smash the crap teams last year and ultimately, it probably cost us fifth spot on the ladder. But we haven't seen whether we have that ability or not this year, because we've played last years grand finalists and two teams that would consider not playing finals this year to be a failure. You take anything from a one point win up against the good teams and you smash the poor teams. Let's see if we've got that ability this year. I reckon we do.

Currently our non-injured list of senior players reads: Bartel, Blicavs, Brown, Caddy, Chapman, Christensen, Corey, Duncan, Enright, Guthrie, Hawkins, Horlin-Smith, J.Hunt, T.Hunt, Johnson, Lonergan, Mackie, Motlop, Murdoch, Podsiadly, Rivers, Schroder, Selwood, Sheringham, Smedts, Stokes, Taylor and West, with Kelly and Thurlow also being possibilities this week. That's 30 players we have to choose from and as long as we pick some combination that includes at least:

2 ruckmen (Blicavs, West)
2 key forwards (Podsiadly, Hawkins, Brown)
2 key defenders (Lonergan, Taylor, Rivers, Brown)
2 small/medium forwards (Bartel, Chapman, Christensen, Duncan, Johnson, Motlop, Murdoch, Schroder, Smedts, Stokes)
2 small medium defenders (Bartel, Brown, Corey, Enright, Guthrie, J.Hunt, T.Hunt, Mackie, Sheringham, Thurlow)
5 ball-winning mids (Bartel, Caddy, Chapman, Christensen, Corey, Duncan, Horlin-Smith, Johnson, Selwood, Sheringham, Kelly)
4 outside runners (Christensen, T.Hunt, Johnson, Motlop, Murdoch, Stokes, Thurlow)

You can fill the rest of the spots with anyone from that group, as far as I'm concerned, and we should be able to put the Bulldogs away. And if it means a veteran or two is closer to 100% for the massive games during the season, well logically we should make up that lost percentage on those games, by either winning the games that we may have lost by having sore players take the field for us, or reducing the margin of the losses that we do have.

 

[David the Cat]

Please, be gentle.

Expect Griffen to miss as well.

Bad blow for the Doggies...such a good player for them. I cant see them troubling this Geelong outfit.

 

[Copernicus]

Bite the pillow, we're going in dry.

Yep, the only bloke in that team who offers a serious threat to us is Cooney.

 

[Claude Balls]

Only player I'd like to see rested, based on their most recent performance, is Chapman. Plus if Kelly is 110% ready Chapman is a reasonably balanced omission in that he has spent at least part of his time in the guts thus far.

Re Hunt and Guthrie, I think when both fit the more experienced man will probably get the nod from the MC as a defender, and the queue from the midfield is probably too long currently for Guthrie to get a look in there right now.

 

[thejester]

Thought the Dogs were okay yesterday and were undone by the conditions in a sense - the rain exacerbated their lack of foot skills and they don't have the forwards or rucks to be able to consistently kick it down the line and come out on top. Regardless of percentage I think this game will be an interesting test of our clearances/contested footy. The Dogs are 7th for average clearances, we're 18th; they're equal tenth for centre clearances with 14.5, we average 14.7. I'm sure as was the case in 08-09 we could win comfortably even if we lose the clearances but it'd be nice to keep up what happened on Friday night.

 

[THE CAT WRANGLER]

We need to continue to work on clearances good opportunity to gain more confidence

 

[FredLeDeux]

Thought the Dogs were okay yesterday and were undone by the conditions in a sense - the rain exacerbated their lack of foot skills and they don't have the forwards or rucks to be able to consistently kick it down the line and come out on top. Regardless of percentage I think this game will be an interesting test of our clearances/contested footy. The Dogs are 7th for average clearances, we're 18th; they're equal tenth for centre clearances with 14.5, we average 14.7. I'm sure as was the case in 08-09 we could win comfortably even if we lose the clearances but it'd be nice to keep up what happened on Friday night.

Footscray have actually won their clearances this season 165-157 for 0 wins, whereas we have lost 129-163 for 4 wins.
Clearances can, if used properly, be very important, but they are nowhere near the be all and end all.

 

[thejester]

Footscray have actually won their clearances this season 165-157 for 0 wins, whereas we have lost 129-163 for 4 wins.
Clearances can, if used properly, be very important, but they are nowhere near the be all and end all.

1 win mate

Absolutely clearances aren't the be all end all, but equally I'm sure the coaching staff would rather win them - and the fact we brought in O'Bree over the offseason suggests we weren't that happy with how we did last year. Under McCartney the Dogs have put an emphasis on contested footy; I'd like to see if we can step up and match them.

 

[FredLeDeux]

1 win mate

Absolutely clearances aren't the be all end all, but equally I'm sure the coaching staff would rather win them - and the fact we brought in O'Bree over the offseason suggests we weren't that happy with how we did last year. Under McCartney the Dogs have put an emphasis on contested footy; I'd like to see if we can step up and match them.

Sorry, underselling the dogs.
Yes, they're important, if used properly, but they are a very crude measure. There are "clearances" and there are "clearances". There's a big difference, for instance, between the way we've been running them out with sideways/forward passes, and the way Carlton, for example, ran them sideways/backwards.

 

[nickztaa]

Cats by 9 goals.

 

[CharacterFirst]

Whoever needs a rest gets one. I'll be willing to make 3-5 changes.

I think def Chappy. And I would be happy for Taylor, Selwood, and one of Mackie or Boris to have a week off. If Blitz needs it as a young body getting whacked every week in the ruck, I would spell him as well.

I am not in the least bit concerned the the Dogs can match us with these players out. In fact I would still be tipping 10 goal win for us.

They lost by 50 to Crows - in hard conditions - and then had to travel back here. They have had two less days than us to prepare, they have lost Griffin.

It just does not seem anything like a danger game to me.

We have had 4 x 6 day breaks, and some of our guys could do with a break, and a little freshen up for a few more tough weeks to come.

Of course, the MC may not do any of this, and if not, so be it, but I would not be the least bit surprised or concerned if they rested theses sorts of players, in these sorts of numbers.

3-5 changes.

 

[who_let_the_dogs_out]

Yep, the only bloke in that team who offers a serious threat to us is Cooney.

I'm expecting a couple of blokes to bounce back from a disappointing game, one of them being Luke Dahlhaus. Might not offer a serious threat but not someone that can be underestimated.

Hopefully Jake Stringer starts in the forward line as well rather than sub.

Either way, it won't be pretty for us. Scary tbh.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Kelly will come back since he needs the run. Guthrie looked ready to go in the 2s on the weekend so I think he'll come in. I'd also like Mitch Brown given a shot, not because he was particularly good in the 2s but because he was so good early in the year. Another possible is Thurlow just to give him a taste of the big stuff and they might give Murdoch another crack. Schroder's one who on form perhaps deserves a chance but not sure if he'll get it.

Chappy is one who will definitely be given the week off. No need to play him if he's already possibly injured. Then either Pods, Lonergan or Hawkins takes a week off for Brown. Finally one, or maybe 2 other smalls sit out for Guthrie and perhaps Thurlow/Murdoch.

That all depends on who needs a run and who might need a rest. Something like:

Ins: Guthrie, Kelly, Brown, Thurlow
Outs: Chapman, Lonergan, Corey, Smedts

3 tough games in a row might mean Corey should sit out a week and Smedts might need a gentle run in the 2s to freshen up a bit.

Also the aim should be to finish them off pretty early and then sub someone like Selwood.

With Brown I'd be playing him on Liam Jones. Looking at him in the VFL he's actually bulked up a fair bit. He doesn't look like a stick any more. If Lonergan's got the size to play key defence there's no reason Brown can't. He needs time to play there though (remember Lonergan on J Brown in 2009...) and this is the perfect match to give him that role. Jones is much improved on last year so it's a good challenge for Brown.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I'm expecting a couple of blokes to bounce back from a disappointing game, one of them being Luke Dahlhaus. Might not offer a serious threat but not someone that can be underestimated.

Hopefully Jake Stringer starts in the forward line as well rather than sub.

Either way, it won't be pretty for us. Scary tbh.

Look I can't see you guys winning. But the dogs are far better than people have been saying. You were in the game up to your necks for the first half against Adelaide despite being undermanned and in conditions that always favour the more mature side.

McCartney impresses me most out of the young coaches and is doing the right thing for example with the youngsters like Stringer, not putting too much expectation on them early despite the pressure from fans to do that (a bit like we did with Ablett, Kelly, etc). Add in to that there's some players that have shown serious improvement and there's a slowly building group of youngsters looking good to take you forward. This year will be tough but you should get at least 5 wins. Then in a couple of years the slow climb will start.

 

[topic97]

Absolutely. I'm glad someone else sees it. This is not the time to ease up and cancel September holidays. There's a long way to go. First item of business, indeed the only item - is to approach this week with the utmost seriousness and hopefully pummel the Dogs into oblivion.

Look at the ladder. Essendon's percentage is 180, Port's is 159. Ours is 112. People think we don't need to increase our percentage???

A four quarter, utterly ruthless display should be the only thing we want.

The thing we need to look at with Essendon & Port is - whos their opposition been?
They have played easybeats, apart from Essendons dockers game, whereas we have played last years two grand finalists & two other quality sides.

Their percentages will start dropping as soon as they play the real contenders & ours will climb dramatically when we get our shot at the easybeats.

Well it should anyway, if it doesnt we could really pay for it later in the season if all the main contenders use their opportunities.

So agreed, we need to take our opportunity & get a big percentage booster otherwise we could pay for it if we are still contending for a top 4 later in the season.

 

[footscore]

They have played easybeats, apart from Essendons dockers game, whereas we have played last years two grand finalists & two other quality sides.

no they haven't, they played Adelaide in Adelaide which is always tough, 6 day break before flying to Perth to take on Fremantle so that's already 2 of last years finalists and then had relatively easy games the last 2 weeks.

 

[Menzelevium]

I think the Doggies will be up for it after yesterday, and we might be sending a poor message if we rest a bunch of players. Chappy is probably the only one I'd be looking to give a break to. Kelly in for him if fit, if not then Guthrie. Start Caddy and get him some more time in the midfield. Horlin-Smith running around with Boyd would be another good experience for him too.

 

[topic97]

no they haven't, they played Adelaide in Adelaide which is always tough, 6 day break before flying to Perth to take on Fremantle so that's already 2 of last years finalists and then had relatively easy games the last 2 weeks.

C'mon, Adelaide are playing like a shell of what they were in the finals last year.
Majority of the teams would have easily accounted for them in the first 3 rounds - heck they were beaten by port who finished 14th last year!

The Perth win ill give them, that was gutsy considering.
But the others, you can't tell me that us, hawks or pies wouldn't have done the same!!