Aston by-election, Date: TBA

Who wins

  • Liberal

    Votes: 12 38.7%

  • Labor

    Votes: 19 61.3%
  • Total voters
    31

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Now confirmed that Alan Tudge is pulling the pin following numerous scandals, and a by-election will be held in his seat in the coming months.

Held on a margin of 2.8%. Aston takes in all of Knox LGA, with Rowville/Scoresby forming the bedrock of the seat's Liberal margin, while Labor do better towards the Bayswater/Boronia end of the electorate. In the state election, Labor won the district of Bayswater and the Liberals won Rowville by a similar margin, so the federal seat is definitely up for grabs.



Frydenberg has ruled himself out of contesting.

www.abc.net.au

Alan Tudge quits politics, Josh Frydenberg rules out comeback

Former treasurer Josh Frydenberg has ruled out contesting the by-election triggered by former Coalition minister Alan Tudge announcing his retirement.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 

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Possibly I'm overselling Labor's chances. It's been over a century since a federal government flipped an opposition seat in a by-election. But they've got nothing to lose and everything to gain, so it's exciting nonetheless.

Will Potato be making appearances down here, or does he know where he's not wanted?
 
Got a bit of a feeling that the Aston by-election could be held at the same time as the NSW state election. If the Liberals lose both Aston and the NSW state election, then the pressure on Peter Dutton will ramp up 100%. In fact, wouldn't be surprised if there was a leadership challenge against Dutton before the year is out.
 
Jascave said:
In fact, wouldn't be surprised if there was a leadership challenge against Dutton before the year is out.
Click to expand...

From who? Maybe Frydo if he was parachuted back into the House but he’s ruled himself out of contention (must see a brighter future in the private sector).

I think to keep siphoning votes away from the Libs they need a Teal to run in this seat.
 
moistie said:
* yes, I have a second chance to vote against those grifting LNP campaigners. Good riddance to bad rubbish, I never saw any benefit to my electorate from his time as my Federal MP.

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
He's a straight out thug who ought to be in jail, along with anyone with their fingerprints on Robodebt
 
Tudge is so typical of the sort of dross thrown up by modern politics.

Completely uninterested in anything beyond his own career, utterly useless at his job, takes no responsibility for anything then has a big cry in Parliament retiring (for family reasons) after being exposed for multiple scandals.

The only surprise is that he doesn't seem to be linked to any overt corruption or have I just missed that bit amongst his infidelity, degradation of his department and the public service, collusion with the media and general uselessness?
 
There was a 3% swing against in the 2001 by election
But lnp was incumbent then

Biggest alp primary was 44% sue craven 1993. I was in her team there was bugger all party funding. If there had been, we miGht have won
 
It's going to be an interesting By-Election:

  • Do the Liberals parachute someone in (eg. Roshana Campbell) or find a local candidate selected by the branches. I suspect they'll be favourites if they do the latter
  • How much does Labor invest in the seat? An extra seat in parliament would be handy given they only have a two seat majority. Plus, they already pushed the liberals last election on basically no budget and Albanese/Labor is more popular in the wider community than they were at election time. Obviously, history is against them, but I feel there's enough going in their favour, especially if the Libs ignore the wishes of the local branches.
  • Assuming that the deregistration of UAP is real, where do their 6% go from the last election. Will they just go to other right wing minor parties like ON or LibDems or does it go back to the Liberals. Again, if it's the latter, LNP should retain.
  • Will an independent have an impact? Aston doesn't really have the demographic profile of the other teal seats. Most of the successful independents at the Federal election were in the field for many months before the election, establishing their profiles. We saw at the state eection that when the 'Teals' were only prominent for a couple of months in the lead up they couldn't quite get over the line, which I think will be the same here, although they could gain enough preferencing power to help decide the election.
Going to be paying very close attention to this one.
 

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Kyptastic said:
It's going to be an interesting By-Election:

  • Do the Liberals parachute someone in (eg. Roshana Campbell) or find a local candidate selected by the branches. I suspect they'll be favourites if they do the latter
  • How much does Labor invest in the seat? An extra seat in parliament would be handy given they only have a two seat majority. Plus, they already pushed the liberals last election on basically no budget and Albanese/Labor is more popular in the wider community than they were at election time. Obviously, history is against them, but I feel there's enough going in their favour, especially if the Libs ignore the wishes of the local branches.
  • Assuming that the deregistration of UAP is real, where do their 6% go from the last election. Will they just go to other right wing minor parties like ON or LibDems or does it go back to the Liberals. Again, if it's the latter, LNP should retain.
  • Will an independent have an impact? Aston doesn't really have the demographic profile of the other teal seats. Most of the successful independents at the Federal election were in the field for many months before the election, establishing their profiles. We saw at the state eection that when the 'Teals' were only prominent for a couple of months in the lead up they couldn't quite get over the line, which I think will be the same here, although they could gain enough preferencing power to help decide the election.
Going to be paying very close attention to this one.
Click to expand...

By-elections tend to attract lots of indys and minor parties, especially if they're being held in the limelight. I expect we'll end up with 10+ candidates, at least 2-3 of whom will probably be of the UAP/anti-vax breed.

Not that they or any more serious independents are a chance. The kind of successful ground campaigns take a good 12 months to build up, so most people will be voting on party brand.
 
What a guy, what a party…..

But on 7 April 2022, the Morrison government amended regulations so that the offer was not revealed until 26 May, delaying the news that prices were expected to rise by 11.3% to 12.6%, or about double the expected inflation rate, until days after the election.


www.theguardian.com

Angus Taylor behind decision to delay energy price rise report until after 2022 election

Exclusive: Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has revealed Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg also knew of the decision
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Interesting how the greens went last year in Aston. Better than I thought

www.tallyroom.com.au

Aston by-election, 2023

Cause of by-election Sitting Liberal MP Alan Tudge announced his retirement in February 2023. Margin – LIB 2.8% Geography History Candidates Assessment 2022 results Booth breakdown Results maps Geo…
www.tallyroom.com.au
 
Bible and Mortgage belt through Rowville and those Liberal areas. Baysie/Boronia more working class, but Those people in Rowville/Scoresby ain't shifting ALP for any reason at the moment, I wouldn't have thought.

Casey, Aston and Deakin in the Bible/Mortgage belt have enough small business people and religious crazies that I can't see any of them going full ALP.

I reckon cost of living will play in LNP's favour, impact of interest rate rises will be acute in these areas. Dutton's crazy wokeness won't cost too many votes. Unless he turns up and starts race baiting.

Right in the middle of the electorate is a great big new Hillsong, right opposite St Andrews Christian School where they had a pedo teacher which was not a huge story for some reason.....
 
cartwright said:
Interesting how the greens went last year in Aston. Better than I thought

www.tallyroom.com.au

Aston by-election, 2023

Cause of by-election Sitting Liberal MP Alan Tudge announced his retirement in February 2023. Margin – LIB 2.8% Geography History Candidates Assessment 2022 results Booth breakdown Results maps Geo…
www.tallyroom.com.au
Click to expand...

Areas towards the Dandenongs have a few more eco-conscious types. And suburban densification along the rail line is bringing in more middle-class millenials/renters; Ringwood-Mitcham is similar and got an even bigger swing in federal and state.

Still, ~20% in booths 30km from the CBD is encouraging to think about. Though I expect the strength of the Labor vote + gaggle of minors might send their vote backwards this time.
 
Kyptastic said:
  • Assuming that the deregistration of UAP is real, where do their 6% go from the last election. Will they just go to other right wing minor parties like ON or LibDems or does it go back to the Liberals. Again, if it's the latter, LNP should retain.
Click to expand...
That 6% would have ended up with Tudge last election anyway wouldn't it? Almost zero chance it went to Labor.
 
Libs need a cleanskin as all sorts of past stuff could be dragged up

NELA and EWlink might feature

Also will there be a high profile independent, we know green and ALP voters are happy to vote tactically (well fryzo does anyway)
 
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