Analysis Aussie Rules Explained - Swans Board Style

[DarkFlyer]

You guys are awesome in your patience and thorough responses.

I asked a question that was yet to be answered: what is the relative interest in rugby compared to the AFL? Does this lead to some of the talent disparity between states?

Another question: the ruckmen are taller as a general rule. There seems to be less of an advantage to height and brawn than to speed and elusiveness. Is there a strategy to "play small" and spread the field out to capitalize on these advantages? What teams employ this and how would you classify the Swans strategy to other clubs?

 

[robbieando]

You guys are awesome in your patience and thorough responses.

I asked a question that was yet to be answered: what is the relative interest in rugby compared to the AFL? Does this lead to some of the talent disparity between states?

The relative interest between Rugby League and Aussie Rules (without bringing other codes into it as thing will get far too complex then) is 50/50.

You have the New South Wales/ACT and Queensland that are the Rugby League states and Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and Northern Territory that make up the AFL States. Southern NSW is where the merge between the codes takes place. As such each code is able to find the talent to fill the spots in each team.

Another question: the ruckmen are taller as a general rule. There seems to be less of an advantage to height and brawn than to speed and elusiveness. Is there a strategy to "play small" and spread the field out to capitalize on these advantages? What teams employ this and how would you classify the Swans strategy to other clubs?

Ruckmen have to be tall but they have to have ability other than being tall otherwise teams will expose them. Teams like Geelong have gone with ruckmen who are tall but are fast (ex Olympic runner) to create an extra midfielder. While the Swans have turned a Key Forward into a ruckman so our two rucks are equally dangerous around the ground and up forward but mainly hard to plan for.

 

[Millky95]

I asked a question that was yet to be answered: what is the relative interest in rugby compared to the AFL? Does this lead to some of the talent disparity between states?

AFL in Victoria is what Rugby is to Queensland and New South Wales. You listen to the radio in Victoria, you're more than likely to find games covering the AFL. In Queensland and New South Wales, you'll hear a Rugby game for example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Australian_football_code_crowds#Attendances_by_league for average game attendance.

Another question: the ruckmen are taller as a general rule. There seems to be less of an advantage to height and brawn than to speed and elusiveness. Is there a strategy to "play small" and spread the field out to capitalize on these advantages? What teams employ this and how would you classify the Swans strategy to other clubs?

Some teams do this. Geelong Cats last season went with a smaller ruckman who was more athletic. They also didn't play finals. If the ruckman can get the first touch to one of your players who can kick it away, it's a bigger advantage to have that happen two times for every one time your opponent does. Plus, height doesn't disappear with fatigue. So if you have a player 6ft 11in against a player 6ft 6in but can jump higher, in the last 30 minutes of the game, he won't be jumping so you can have that advantage

 

[Dan87]

You guys are awesome in your patience and thorough responses.

I asked a question that was yet to be answered: what is the relative interest in rugby compared to the AFL? Does this lead to some of the talent disparity between states?

Another question: the ruckmen are taller as a general rule. There seems to be less of an advantage to height and brawn than to speed and elusiveness. Is there a strategy to "play small" and spread the field out to capitalize on these advantages? What teams employ this and how would you classify the Swans strategy to other clubs?

Rugby doesn't have more than a very minor presence in AFL states and vice-versa. But the AFL can fill 100K stadiums so it's doing a lot healthier in terms of scope, professionalism and salary. There's been some high profile rugby into AFL recruits like Karmichael Hunt and Israel Folau. Both were spectacular failures.

Finding tall players that are competitive, can spread and can dominate is basically the golden egg in the AFL. Key forwards are the most valuable talent. Basically because at some point in any structure you need to kick to a contest to score (reliably), and guys that can stand up and win contests are usually not small. It's a rule that's always been true. More so than ever now because defensive structures in top committed teams lead to aggressive intercept and rebound so those contests rarely eventuate in a smalls favour without a presence in the marking contest.

Modern Swans footy was born under Paul Roos. It was very defensive and over the last 15 years it's become an aggressive turn-over minded style that would have near competition leading stats in counter attack from defensive 50 / turn-over to goal speed stats.

 

[DarkFlyer]

AFL in Victoria is what Rugby is to Queensland and New South Wales. You listen to the radio in Victoria, you're more than likely to find games covering the AFL. In Queensland and New South Wales, you'll hear a Rugby game for example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Australian_football_code_crowds#Attendances_by_league for average game attendance.


Some teams do this. Geelong Cats last season went with a smaller ruckman who was more athletic. They also didn't play finals. If the ruckman can get the first touch to one of your players who can kick it away, it's a bigger advantage to have that happen two times for every one time your opponent does. Plus, height doesn't disappear with fatigue. So if you have a player 6ft 11in against a player 6ft 6in but can jump higher, in the last 30 minutes of the game, he won't be jumping so you can have that advantage

Awesome explanation on the latter. In America, the saying is "You can't teach height".

Since this is a Swans board, what is Sydney's strategy relative to other teams? My (untrained) sense is that the Swans' strength is in the midfield of Jack, Parker, and Kennedy with a "finisher" like Franklin.

 

[Dan87]

A key component in Swan's 2016 campaign is a full ground forward press that is heavily geared to create turn over, you'll see a lot of teams trying to make it work. Western Bulldogs are doing it really well at the moment.

Ultra defensive with kamikaze football on a turn over to create quick scoring opportunites/ i50, once there, a full ground press to create repeat opportunities by keeping the ball in their forward half.

The press, and it's structure has lots of permutations and has a lot of genreal, structure going on to it.

 

[DarkFlyer]

A key component in Swan's 2016 campaign is a full ground forward press that is heavily geared to create turn over, you'll see a lot of teams trying to make it work. Western Bulldogs are doing it really well at the moment.

Ultra defensive with kamikaze football on a turn over to create quick scoring opportunites/ i50, once there, a full ground press to create repeat opportunities by keeping the ball in their forward half.

With the weakness being susceptibility to quick scores by the opponent? Who matches up well against Sydney if that is true?

What are Sydney's odds to be in the Grand Final this year?

 

[Millky95]

Awesome explanation on the latter. In America, the saying is "You can't teach height".

Since this is a Swans board, what is Sydney's strategy relative to other teams? My (untrained) sense is that the Swans' strength is in the midfield of Jack, Parker, and Kennedy with a "finisher" like Franklin.

Arron Sandilands is the tallest player in the AFL. He does this a lot in games. He plays for Fremantle and in 2013 they were dominate around stoppages when the ruckman go for taps.

This year has been a bit different in terms of style. We used to just absorb pressure in our back half of the ground, then break away going forward quickly (called a slingshot) but that involved long kicks into our forward line which aren't accurate and got stopped a lot. This year we seem to "lower our eyes" and kick with shorter, more accurate kicks

With the weakness being susceptibility to quick scores by the opponent? Who matches up well against Sydney if that is true?

What are Sydney's odds to be in the Grand Final this year?

Any team with accurate footskills like Hawthorn and maybe the Bulldogs. But it is early this year so it is tough to tell.

We are around $5 but it is only round 2 and hard to tell

 

[Dan87]

With the weakness being susceptibility to quick scores by the opponent? Who matches up well against Sydney if that is true?

What are Sydney's odds to be in the Grand Final this year?

The weakness is quick goals being scored over the top of the press. The Crows vs. Port game on the weekend had Port going with a new heavy press that worked terribly, it allowed Crows defense fast rebound at half back (through the most dangerous part of the press supposedly). Exactly the opposite of what is meant to happen. From there it takes one hard worker to push out of the press and create a target and a serious opportunity. This last piece of play is heavily reliant on the decision maker off the half back (to create the opportunity for his hard worker) and the hard worker to be able to run and finish a critical play.

The reality is Sydney match up well against most teams unless injuries hit. A key vulnerability is their key backs which in a press setup we can maybe hide them, but 1 on 1 contests against high end key forwards are going to be a problem. Teams with good runners and kickers are the kryptonite as they'll show up our 1 on 1 weakness in defense.

If GWS play well this weekend we'll learn lots. Swans should provide good entertainment for a good portion of the season ( and likely some finals). But touch wood ya know?

 

[DarkFlyer]

Arron Sandilands is the tallest player in the AFL. He does this a lot in games. He plays for Fremantle and in 2013 they were dominate around stoppages when the ruckman go for taps.

This year has been a bit different in terms of style. We used to just absorb pressure in our back half of the ground, then break away going forward quickly (called a slingshot) but that involved long kicks into our forward line which aren't accurate and got stopped a lot. This year we seem to "lower our eyes" and kick with shorter, more accurate kicks


Any team with accurate footskills like Hawthorn and maybe the Bulldogs. But it is early this year so it is tough to tell.

We are around $5 but it is only round 2 and hard to tell

I hope you guys don't tire of these questions, but it seemed like Hawthorn exceled in the bolded last year. The Grand Final seemed to be a clinic in ball control and accuracy. Correct?

 

[DarkFlyer]

The weakness is quick goals being scored over the top of the press. The Crows vs. Port game on the weekend had Port going with a new heavy press that worked terribly, it allowed Crows defense fast rebound at half back (through the most dangerous part of the press supposedly). Exactly the opposite of what is meant to happen. From there it takes one hard worker to push out of the press and create a target and a serious opportunity. This last piece of play is heavily reliant on the decision maker of the half back (to create the opportunity for his hard worker) and the hard worker to be able to run and finish a critical play.

The reality is Sydney match up well against most teams unless injuries hit. A key vulnerability is their key backs which in a press setup we can maybe hide them, but 1 on 1 contests against high end key forwards are going to be a problem. Teams with good runners and kickers are the kryptonit as they'll show up are 1 on 1 weakness in defense.

If GWS play well this weekend we'll learn lots. Swans should provide good entertainment for a good portion of the season ( and likely some finals). But touch wood ya know?

**Touching wood***

Is GWS the biggest rival? If so, proximity? Please tell me reasons I should hate other teams.

 

[Dan87]

**Touching wood***

Is GWS the biggest rival? If so, proximity? Please tell me reasons I should hate other teams.

It's the second NSW team, so yeah a manufactured rivalry atm (they're young) they claim from the western suburbs of Sydney to Canberra. They're a young team, but the most talented in the comp on paper. High skill level. How they move the ball against us will be a big test

 

[Number37]

Awesome explanation on the latter. In America, the saying is "You can't teach height".

Since this is a Swans board, what is Sydney's strategy relative to other teams? My (untrained) sense is that the Swans' strength is in the midfield of Jack, Parker, and Kennedy with a "finisher" like Franklin.

Their is a lot of love to be had for teams that have a large spread of goal kickers, especially if they are midfielders. In our 2012 premiership year, we did not have a 'finisher' as such, our midfield kicked a lot of goals.

There are a few dedicated stats websites, like this one:
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/th-sydney-swans?advv=Y

There is lots of debate about stats, what they mean and if they mean anything at all.
We have some unique metrics;
Contested possessions ( our coach keeps telling us our game plan is all about the contested ball)
Uncontested possessions (Ironically the battle is for the contested ball, so that you can have uncontested possessions to take the ball Inside 50 and kick goals under relatively less stress, but our kicking has been relatively poor and brings great angst to us fans)
Inside 50's and her cousin Rebound 50 ( there are also stats about Inside 50 conversion, i.e. how many times you take the ball Inside 50 and actually score a goal or a behind. As we learned last year you can take a midfielder to Inside 50 but you can't make them kick, at least to our forwards so that they can kick goals)
1% (things like smothers, and chasing opponents to apply 'pressure' (another of our coaches buzz words)
Clangers (bad mistakes)
The obvious ones:
Kicks
Handballs
Goals
Behinds

 

[Millky95]

I hope you guys don't tire of these questions, but it seemed like Hawthorn exceled in the bolded last year. The Grand Final seemed to be a clinic in ball control and accuracy. Correct?

Yeah. They are very good in short and quick kicks. The ball moves faster when kicked than when held onto and ran with. So it is harder to get numbers back to stop them.

**Touching wood***

Is GWS the biggest rival? If so, proximity? Please tell me reasons I should hate other teams.

GWS only came into the league in 2012 so there isn't really a rivalry there. We had a big rivalry with the West Coast Eagles from around 04-10 where there were many games with the result under 10 point. In 05 and 06 we played the Eagles in the Grand Finals of those years. We won 05 by 4 points and lost 06 by 1. Some say those two games are the best GFs in history.

More recently it is Hawthorn after the 2012 and 14 grand finals.

 

[DarkFlyer]

It's the second NSW team, so yeah a manufactured rivalry atm (they're young) they claim from the western suburbs of Sydney to Canberra. They're a young team, but the most talented in the comp on paper. High skill level. How they move the ball against us will be a big test

I see, they are basically a brand new team. I assume they will stay little bother to the Swans for the foreseeable future in the hearts and minds of NSW residents? I read this on the GSW Wiki page:

In March 2008, it was revealed by the media that the AFL had considered a radical proposal to launch an Irish-dominated team in Sydney's western suburbs, which would perform before an international audience under the "Celtic" brand name. The "Sydney Celtics" plan was first put to AFL chief executive Andrew Demetriou in early 2007 by Gaelic Players Association executive Donal O'Neill. It was said that the proposal originated at the International Rules series in Ireland in late 2006 when O'Neill put forward a plan to purchase an AFL licence in Sydney.

How did this board react to this news or did you never believe it?

 

[DarkFlyer]

Their is a lot of love to be had for teams that have a large spread of goal kickers, especially if they are midfielders. In our 2012 premiership year, we did not have a 'finisher' as such, our midfield kicked a lot of goals.

There are a few dedicated stats websites, like this one:
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/th-sydney-swans?advv=Y

There is lots of debate about stats, what they mean and if they mean anything at all.
We have some unique metrics;
Contested possessions ( our coach keeps telling us our game plan is all about the contested ball)
Uncontested possessions (Ironically the battle is for the contested ball, so that you can have uncontested possessions to take the ball Inside 50 and kick goals under relatively less stress, but our kicking has been relatively poor and brings great angst to us fans)
Inside 50's and her cousin Rebound 50 ( there are also stats about Inside 50 conversion, i.e. how many times you take the ball Inside 50 and actually score a goal or a behind. As we learned last year you can take a midfielder to Inside 50 but you can't make them kick, at least to our forwards so that they can kick goals)
1% (things like smothers, and chasing opponents to apply 'pressure' (another of our coaches buzz words)
Clangers (bad mistakes)
The obvious ones:
Kicks
Handballs
Goals
Behinds

You shouldn't care about my opinion, but it seems to me contested possessions are huge in the AFL. Winning those battles seem to set the stage for everything else, as you alluded to.

So in fantasy footy it seems goal scorers are less important than those with a high level of utilization of the ball. Who is considered the "best" player when choosing a fantasy team?

 

[CD__]

Can't speak for the others but that's the first I've ever heard of the 'Sydney Celtics'.

 

[DarkFlyer]

Can't speak for the others but that's the first I've ever heard of the 'Sydney Celtics'.

Well, you only joined the board in Nov 2015 . . .

 

[Millky95]

You shouldn't care about my opinion, but it seems to me contested possessions are huge in the AFL. Winning those battles seem to set the stage for everything else, as you alluded to.

Oh shit yeah. You win the contested ball, you can give it to your better ball users with more time and space which make better inside 50s and lead to more scores

 

[robbieando]

I see, they are basically a brand new team. I assume they will stay little bother to the Swans for the foreseeable future in the hearts and minds of NSW residents? I read this on the GSW Wiki page:

In March 2008, it was revealed by the media that the AFL had considered a radical proposal to launch an Irish-dominated team in Sydney's western suburbs, which would perform before an international audience under the "Celtic" brand name. The "Sydney Celtics" plan was first put to AFL chief executive Andrew Demetriou in early 2007 by Gaelic Players Association executive Donal O'Neill. It was said that the proposal originated at the International Rules series in Ireland in late 2006 when O'Neill put forward a plan to purchase an AFL licence in Sydney.

How did this board react to this news or did you never believe it?

Just laughed at the idea.

As for who our true rival is - thats between Collingwood, Carlton and St Kilda.

Most will go with Collingwood for various reason but St Kilda use to play at the other end of Albert Park Lake when we first started out in the 1890's and Carlton tried to kill us off as a club in 1992. GWS is too forced by them and the AFL to be a rivalry

 

[Number37]

You shouldn't care about my opinion, but it seems to me contested possessions are huge in the AFL. Winning those battles seem to set the stage for everything else, as you alluded to.

So in fantasy footy it seems goal scorers are less important than those with a high level of utilization of the ball. Who is considered the "best" player when choosing a fantasy team?

I don't play fantasy football, but if you look at the stats for each real game, each player is given points for their performance ("fantasy points", the last column in the stats on the AFL website if you click on a match), those are the stats that fantasy football works on.
Personally I think it is called fantasy points for a reason, they don't make sense to me. Others will swear by it.

Much better than fantasy football is the Squiggle.
If you get a chance you must have a look at the squiggle, it is better than sliced bread.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/race-for-the-flag-in-squiggly-lines.1022679/page-224

 

[RW]

GWS is too forced by them and the AFL to be a rivalry

I think the rivalry will get bigger as GWS grows*, they are the only club in the AFL today that can say they have us as their biggest rival. I would say us and St Scum (a nickname given to St Kilda by one of our board regulars - DarkFlyer will no doubt encounter him soon ) are historical rivals due to location (either side of Albert Park), but that rivalry isn't as big these days. The Collingwood rivalry is there thanks to Eddie but they have bigger rivalries with Carlton, Essendon, Richmond etc.

*assuming the AFL's money doesn't run out first

 

[elastic]

Just as a side note, I have a theory that the stop-start nature of many American sports makes them more suitable for ad breaks and therefore a more valuable commodity for broadcasters
It is one reason why soccer is unlikely to ever gain traction there.
AFL telecast rights generally benefit when there are more more goals kicked(and more ad breaks) which is one reason why the AFL keeps tweaking the rules to ensure high scoring. And if you're a conspiracy theorist, it is the reason why Andrew Demetriou was so critical of the Swans game style in 2005 as the TV rights agreement was approaching.

 

[DarkFlyer]

Just as a side note, I have a theory that the stop-start nature of many American sports makes them more suitable for ad breaks and therefore a more valuable commodity for broadcasters
It is one reason why soccer is unlikely to ever gain traction there.
AFL telecast rights generally benefit when there are more more goals kicked(and more ad breaks) which is one reason why the AFL keeps tweaking the rules to ensure high scoring. And if you're a conspiracy theorist, it is the reason why Andrew Demetriou was so critical of the Swans game style in 2005 as the TV rights agreement was approaching.

Interesting. In the games I've watched, the camera simply follows the ball/official to the center of the field after a goal (and of course it is immediately in play after a behind). There are no commercial except in between quarters and half time - which is totally palatable to me. Am I watching a different broadcast?

Speaking of what happens after a goal, why does the official make such a show of cleaning the ball before each bounce? I assume it is some sort of tradition, but does anyone know the roots?

 

[RW]

Interesting. In the games I've watched, the camera simply follows the ball/official to the center of the field after a goal (and of course it is immediately in play after a behind). There are no commercial except in between quarters and half time - which is totally palatable to me. Am I watching a different broadcast?

Games on Fox Footy have no commercial breaks except at the end of each quarter. I assume you're watching in the US, I'm guessing they're just picking up the Fox Footy broadcast.