Might have played his last game for the dogs.
Speculation Bailey Smith
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rye
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you dont need to meltdown in every d&t thread about footscray players
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Dont think we can afford him tbh.
BringFevBack2021
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Given how many players have came back beautifully post ACL in the modern game, I don’t think his value falls dramatically.
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he's worth a pick around 10-14
Caligo
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Still a huge proportion of players don't come back 100 percent. I would have thought well more than half.
KissKiss
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Reckon most are ok after one (especially if they can deal with a year of solid rehab without issues), but once the second knee goes then you really do start to have decreases.
But even with one they start playing in 12 months, but I dont think they generally get back to full playing ability for ~18 months
CatToTheFuture
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Don't really care about the acl, would still offer him the same contract and reasonable trade terms. Reckon we might see the dogs perform just as well with him out too.
I don't think his value will fall much, however, it won't rise which it would've if he had a strong year in the midfield.
Will still get big money offers but probably won't have as many suitors offering him top top dollar. Will need to decide whether he grabs the biggest offer or takes a bit less to end up at the right club (not suggesting that won't be the dogs).
If he does leave I think trade value is a pick between 6-12 plus change (the later the pick the more the change).
Think that's about what he would have been worth this year if uncontracted so no drop, however, if he had a big year in 2024 he could've fetched multiple 1sts.
Will still get big money offers but probably won't have as many suitors offering him top top dollar. Will need to decide whether he grabs the biggest offer or takes a bit less to end up at the right club (not suggesting that won't be the dogs).
If he does leave I think trade value is a pick between 6-12 plus change (the later the pick the more the change).
Think that's about what he would have been worth this year if uncontracted so no drop, however, if he had a big year in 2024 he could've fetched multiple 1sts.
I do think he is more likely to leave then stay only because I don't think the dogs will be keen to offer him a mega contract after what he's delivered on his current one. Someone else will so will he turn down the money if he is already reportedly unhappy already?
Really like him as a player, I'd be somewhat risk averse if I was the buying club though. Sure he might come back exactly the same, but he also might suffer complications, or set backs, or maybe only ever come back at 95%. Until you can determine that, offering the big money / trade deal would be a risk.
The other side of that is maybe he would have improved, let's say had a career best year and made AA and then his value goes up, so if you still project that he might get to that level, the buying club might get a bargain because you're not gonna pay that cost after he sits in rehab for a year.
A club that can afford to risk it is probably better placed than a club who is desperate for him.
The same applies to the Bulldogs in retention. Do they pay him like he's not the same player or do they pay him like he had the breakout season?
Obviously this applies to other clubs as Richmond aren't in the frame here.
The other side of that is maybe he would have improved, let's say had a career best year and made AA and then his value goes up, so if you still project that he might get to that level, the buying club might get a bargain because you're not gonna pay that cost after he sits in rehab for a year.
A club that can afford to risk it is probably better placed than a club who is desperate for him.
The same applies to the Bulldogs in retention. Do they pay him like he's not the same player or do they pay him like he had the breakout season?
Obviously this applies to other clubs as Richmond aren't in the frame here.
Love Bailey, but it’s fair to say his reputation precedes his actual overall output at his absolute best. In total I’d say he’s had maybe 1.5 seasons where he was worth a top 5 pick in a trade, but he has struggled with consistency and was never the match winner with x-factor that clubs would overpay for, that’s all before his ACL.
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Kids only 23, has plenty of upside left in him. Looks likely he'll be gone from the Doggies at seasons end, whoever picks him up will get him for well under his worth and come mid-2025 to 2026 will look a machine
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still worth a pick around 10-15 imo
and around 700-750k a year
He had one great finals series in 2021 when he looked like becoming a superstar of the comp and hasn't got close to that level consistently since. If dogs can lock away JUH and get a top 10 pick for Bailey they should jump at it.
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Trealor was 2x first round picks when he left the Giants. Bulldogs would have plenty of history to ask for something similar
Treloar's footy at the time exceeds Bailey Smith's comfortably. He was also two seasons younger.
Swanssince91
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Bailey has the damaged good feel, late first at best
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2024 would be Bailey Smiths 6th season. I would of given him a 2-3 year deal already.
Saying that, He just did his ACL. Sad to hear this.
I still think the dogs will still hand him a 2 year deal which means a contract until the end of 2026. That makes him a free agent.
Saying that, He just did his ACL. Sad to hear this.
I still think the dogs will still hand him a 2 year deal which means a contract until the end of 2026. That makes him a free agent.
Strapping Young Lad
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They were getting two top 10 picks if he’s not done the ACL.
Likely to get 1 and some spare change now.
Elmer_Judd
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Assuming Hawthorn will finish bottom 4 again next season (which seems at best a 50-50 chance at this stage) would you be prepared to offer The Hawks a top 5 pick and change for Baz if he wanted to leave The Kennel ?
smish
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I think it'd be a future first at best.
Caligo
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I wouldn't, but I suspect the club would.
The big variable would be the medical though.
I doubt it would require change. Top 5 pick straight for Bailey out of contract off an ACL would be a good deal for the dogs. Could replace him with one of the highly talented mids in the draft.
