Preview Battle for last finals spots ... how it shapes up

[mike ockerts]

Still believe 13 wins will be required to get us in, that means one hiccup that's all, I agree that the bombers spot is the only one up for grabs, but given the form of the Egirls of late anything is possible, but I'd suggest the pretty easy run home will get then 14-15 wins.

 

[Tanks_Alot]

We're on 9 wins. Usually it takes 13 or 12 with high %. Unfortunately the Saints have a very high percentage so we'll prpbably need to be a game clear of them to make it.

Their draw is from now on is:

Dogs - WIN
Pies - LOSS
Melb - WIN
Geel - LOSS
GWS - WIN
Carl - 50/50

That gives them 11 or 12 wins depending on whether they beat us.

Freo otoh have:

Port - WIN
WC - LOSS
Adel - LOSS
Rich - WIN
Nth - LOSS
Melb - WIN

That gives them 12 wins as well

For us to win 13 we MUST beat GC, Bris (which we will) and then we'll need to get over the line against 2 of the Swans, Bombers and Saints.

ATM, it's looking like the Bombers game should be ours which will give us 12 wins. The 13th needs to come from either beating Sydney or the Saints.

We also need to rely on the Bombers, Cats or Eagles to drop out.

Cats have:

Hawks
WC (away)
Saints
WB
Syd (home)

If they win 2-3 of those, we're not getting past them.

Eagles have:

Bris
Freo
Geel
Port
Pies
Hawks (away)

Now they're most likely going to beat Bris, Freo and Port and I think they'll get the Cats too since it's at Subi and so is the Pies game. So they're not dropping out for mine.

That leaves the Bombers:

Adel (away)
Nth
Carl
Rich
Pies

They must lose all except one of those to be on 12 wins. Rich looks the most likely but then again they do have a good record against them. With us it's too hard to predict but that game could make or break the chances for both teams. Then there's North who should beat them given their form.

So for me the most likely scenario is we win against the Bombers and one of the Swans or Saints as well as beat Bris and GC to give us the 13 wins. Then we need the Bombers to lose every game except for one. That way we should make it.

For some reason, I feel like we're going to beat the Swans, they've been on a good run, won 8 in a row and they're bound to play a bad game now. Going to be very tough with Judd out but not impossible perhaps we can draw some confidence from the fact we beat them twice last year and just hope that they play bad. Carrots will have his work cut out against Kennedy, to me that will be crucial if Carrots can prevent Kennedy from bursting through and keep him quiet it will go a long way imo.

 

[Cringle]

Okay so I did the math and in a nut shell to get into the top 8 we have to beat Brisbane and the Suns which we will, then we MUST beat 2 out of Sydney, Essendon and St Kilda. Doesnt matter how they will go as in most cases they will lose 2/3 games against teams like the Hawks, Cats, Eagles, etc.
Essendon is our best chance, plus our players will be after their blood, enter round 4. You would think St Kilda would be a win if it was at the G, but because Swann (pree sure it was him who made Docklands our Home Ground) likes the [snip - mod] we're gonna have to beat Sydney or the Saints in hell.
In summary, beat Sydney and Essendon and we're in.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Swan wasn't even at the club when we signed the Docklands agreement. Let's not cast unnecessary aspersions.

 

[Cringle]

Swan wasn't even at the club when we signed the Docklands agreement. Let's not cast unnecessary aspersions.

My bad, who was it?

 

[JuddsABlue]

Going to be extremely hard, given our own form and then needing another team to make way

We know our full list is good enough to compete for a flag so beginning our 2013 prep now seems like our best option.

Keys need to be getting games into young KPP (Casbolt etc) if we need them in 2013

Giving Kruezer and Jamo their best chance for 2013, whether that's playing or resting or surgery

Getting our best 22 ready for a good preseason

Would hate to see more damage done that delays players preseason

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

My bad, who was it?

It was back under the Collins presidency. Collins sat out the negotiations as he was in charge of Docklands and Carlton at the time. So the Carlton board and whoever our CEO was at the time. The thing was though, the AFL didn't want to fixture us at Princes Park anymore and we were broke and the AFL and Docklands offered us a few mill to go IIRC.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Going to be extremely hard, given our own form and then needing another team to make way

We know our full list is good enough to compete for a flag so beginning our 2013 prep now seems like our best option.

Keys need to be getting games into young KPP (Casbolt etc) if we need them in 2013

Giving Kruezer and Jamo their best chance for 2013, whether that's playing or resting or surgery

Getting our best 22 ready for a good preseason

Would hate to see more damage done that delays players preseason

Wherever there is life, there is hope. No team can choose to rest required players when they are still any chance at finals. It's just not the done thing. We have Laidler, Henderson and Hampson out for the season and all other best 22 players coming back. We can cover Laidler and Hampson so have to muddle through with Hendo out. If we go into the finals showing the grit we have shown the past 2 weeks, we could cause damage in the finals. Unfortunately with the Crows, Swans and Eagles up there, we will more than likely travel in week 1, 2 or 3.

 

[Tanks_Alot]

Wherever there is life, there is hope. No team can choose to rest required players when they are still any chance at finals. It's just not the done thing. We have Laidler, Henderson and Hampson out for the season and all other best 22 players coming back. We can cover Laidler and Hampson so have to muddle through with Hendo out. If we go into the finals showing the grit we have shown the past 2 weeks, we could cause damage in the finals. Unfortunately with the Crows, Swans and Eagles up there, we will more than likely travel in week 1, 2 or 3.

Obviously not as good as Hendo yet, but I thought Watson was doing a good job covering for him. Should be back in for Davies this week imo.

 

[Murphkreuzmitch]

My bad, who was it?

Collins

 

[jj1978]

Upset wins happen all the time... North could just as easily lose one unexpectedly

 

[Claypigeon]

My ladder predictor results haven't changed much since the last few times I've done it. ..

Possibly being harsh on the Dons as I have us beating them, so they could slot in above Freo and knock Saints out. .. but we'll have judd back then and could be ready to crack into them. .. Carrots owes them one too. ..

Too bad Jacobs pulled out against the Cats. .. Could cost Adelaide a home final but Sydney might save them against Hawks @ SCG. ..

 

[No1Suspect]

Call me bad, but I'm pretty much resigned to us not making the eight so if we do it will be an absolute highlight.
In a way I was hoping for Richmond to win on Sunday for us to secure a better draft pick.

Is there a ban forthcoming?

Me to mate! I want us to win... We lose.. I want us to lose so we secure a better pick we win...only because we probably won't make the eight... I'm tearing my hair out!

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

One team wins a premiership every year. The rest of us have to get our enjoyment from watching stirring wins like last night. I could get hit by a bus in the offseason, bugger giving up moments of inspiration for a draft pick around about pick 9 on the off chance it significantly boosts our chances next year.

 

[The_Wookie]

Ive got us coming in eighth, knocking Essendon out of the 8 in round 21, and facing the Pies first up in elimination, followed by the Eagles at home in a repeat of last season.

 

[Aphrodite]

Ive got us coming in eighth, knocking Essendon out of the 8 in round 21, and facing the Pies first up in elimination, followed by the Eagles at home in a repeat of last season.

Loving this scenario.

Can we beat them 3 times in 1 year !!!

 

[mediumsizered]

Loving this scenario.

Can we beat them 3 times in 1 year !!!

Absolutely!!!!!!!!!

 

[Bell Ringer]

It was back under the Collins presidency. Collins sat out the negotiations...

Suuuuuuure he did...

 

[Bell Ringer]

TBH, I just wanna see them continue the same effort we've seen the last month (discounting NM game). If that results in finals; awesome, if not; so be it.

If we continue to see that effort, I give a lot of credit to Ratten for keeping a playing list up and about this late in the season.

And for that, I think he should get another year.

If the effort drops off to Port/GWS/Adel levels I'll place all trust in and end-of-season review regarding our coach for 2013 and beyond.

 

[Aphrodite]

Absolutely!!!!!!!!!

Bring it on !!!!

 

[jj1978]

Best thing for us is that brisbane got hammered and any slightest chance they had of finals are now snuffed out so hopefully they'll now send the injured off to be fixed and play rookies and kids... So when we meet them in 2 weeks we have to go the kill %%%%%%% then the Suns game is the making of our season if we're in contention... Again %%% were lucky that Judd,Simpson, Murphy, carazzo will be fresh and we need to play all our guns (I would only rest Kreuzer) and beat them by over 100! Beat Brisbane by 60+. Gold coast by 100+ and drop only 1 more game then finals are definitely ours... Lose 2 we have a chance but need Geelong or north to have a shock loss or StKilda to.

 

[Claypigeon]

Kind of like that it is in our hands a fair bit. .. Games against Essendon and St Kilda are the 8pt games. .. Even if we manage a miracle and beat Sydney this week, those two games will be all that matters. .. As long as we polish off GCS and Brissy of course. ..

BTW I think our % is too terrible to matter unless we beat the Saints. ..

 

[jj1978]

Kind of like that it is in our hands a fair bit. .. Games against Essendon and St Kilda are the 8pt games. .. Even if we manage a miracle and beat Sydney this week, those two games will be all that matters. .. As long as we polish off GCS and Brissy of course. ..

BTW I think our % is too terrible to matter unless we beat the Saints. ..

% can grow and Brisbane and GC is important.. For example, if for our final 5 games we avg 100 for and 80 against well end up with a % of 117....

 

[The Coach]

Ive got us coming in eighth, knocking Essendon out of the 8 in round 21, and facing the Pies first up in elimination, followed by the Eagles at home in a repeat of last season.

It is not hard to picture that Wookie. If we win 4/5 then Bumbers have to win 2/5 - they will only win 1 in my book. It will come down to the Aints game in the last round to see who takes their place

 

[BrandonG]

Best case scenario for mine