Prediction Best 22 for Round 1, 2023

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B: Liam Duggan, Tom Barrass, Shannon Hurn
HB: Jayden Hunt, Jeremy McGovern, Luke Shuey

C: Campbell Chesser, Dom Sheed, Andrew Gaff

HF: Jack Petruccelle, Oscar Allen, Jamie Cripps
F: Jamaine Jones, Jack Darling, Liam Ryan

Foll: Bailey Williams, Tim Kelly, Elliot Yeo


I/C: Callum Jamieson, Reuben Ginbey, Jai Culley, Xavier O'Neill

Sub: Elijah Hewett
 
Chris_6678 said:
B: Liam Duggan, Tom Barrass, Shannon Hurn
HB: Jayden Hunt, Jeremy McGovern, Luke Shuey

C: Campbell Chesser, Dom Sheed, Andrew Gaff

HF: Jack Petruccelle, Oscar Allen, Jamie Cripps
F: Jamaine Jones, Jack Darling, Liam Ryan

Foll: Bailey Williams, Tim Kelly, Elliot Yeo


I/C: Callum Jamieson, Reuben Ginbey, Jai Culley, Xavier O'Neill

Sub: Elijah Hewett
Click to expand...
Doubt BW will line up
 

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It is so frustrating to be back in the same groundhogruck day we have been time and time again over the past decade.

If you google 'Naitanui' and 'Fitness' it is surreal how many times he has been injured/racing the clock to be fit/a bit underdone/not yet at full fitness/a few weeks off/playing under duress etc etc etc. I am genuinely trying to remember an occasion, even at the absolute peak of his powers, where he was capable of rocking for 4 quarters and I can't think of one. Even in his B&F year he was a burst player carrying various injuries.

And when he breaks down it always leaves us with the same dilemma- how does a team which spends the best part of a million dollars a year on him as our franchise player, with a midfield designed around a dominant ruckman who wins centre square clearances adjust when he's constantly unable to play out a game or get on on park? How do you recruit, retain and develop young ruckmen when they are constantly playing behind him?

It's not going to change at this point in his career, but I feel like there was a sliding doors moment, perhaps early in his career, perhaps after the ACLs, where the club could have said 'you need to slim down, develop the endurance to run for 4 quarters, not go anywhere near a football field until you've done a proper preseason and then you can play' rather than persisting with the in retrospect extremely foolish idea that a 200cm, 110kg guy who likes to jump out of the park can or should play as a 'burst' or 'impact' player, prioritising strength over endurance even if it means he plqyz underdone or carries extra weight. The result of the strategy they've followed has been a neverending assortment of knee/leg/ankle injuries and ultimately a pretty disappointing career for what he is paid and for his immense potential.
 
Total_Juddshanks said:
It is so frustrating to be back in the same groundhogruck day we have been time and time again over the past decade.

If you google 'Naitanui' and 'Fitness' it is surreal how many times he has been injured/racing the clock to be fit/a bit underdone/not yet at full fitness/a few weeks off/playing under duress etc etc etc. I am genuinely trying to remember an occasion, even at the absolute peak of his powers, where he was capable of rocking for 4 quarters and I can't think of one. Even in his B&F year he was a burst player carrying various injuries.

And when he breaks down it always leaves us with the same dilemma- how does a team which spends the best part of a million dollars a year on him as our franchise player, with a midfield designed around a dominant ruckman who wins centre square clearances adjust when he's constantly unable to play out a game or get on on park? How do you recruit, retain and develop young ruckmen when they are constantly playing behind him?

It's not going to change at this point in his career, but I feel like there was a sliding doors moment, perhaps early in his career, perhaps after the ACLs, where the club could have said 'you need to slim down, develop the endurance to run for 4 quarters, not go anywhere near a football field until you've done a proper preseason and then you can play' rather than persisting with the in retrospect extremely foolish idea that a 200cm, 110kg guy who likes to jump out of the park can or should play as a 'burst' or 'impact' player, prioritising strength over endurance even if it means he plqyz underdone or carries extra weight. The result of the strategy they've followed has been a neverending assortment of knee/leg/ankle injuries and ultimately a pretty disappointing career for what he is paid and for his immense potential.
Click to expand...
As much as I agree with most of this, we wouldn’t have finished as high as we did in 2018 without NicNat, and therefore wouldn’t have won the flag, he’s worth every cent.
 
Naitanui- games by year

2009- 10/11 (debuted in R12)
2010- 22/22
2011- 23/25
2012- 22/24
2013- 11/22 (missed R1-5, 18-23)
2014- 20/22
2015- 23/25
2016- 15/23 (missed R14-19, R22 injured knee)
2017- DNP/24
2018- 15/25 (R8 suspended, R17 injured knee)
2019- 5/24 (missed R1-14, 18-23)
2020- 17/18
2021- 22/22
2022- 8/22 (missed R2, 5-15, 18-19,23)

From 13 full seasons played 20+ games 6 times plus 2020 when he missed 1 game in a shortened season. So 6 seasons where he played less than 20 games

Played 213 of a possible 309 games since debut

Of the 96 games he missed -

• 48 were due to his 2 knee reconstructions across 2016-19
• 11 were due battling OP in 2013 after having surgery at the end of 2012
• 6 were due to mid season Achilles surgery in 2016
• 6 were due to a syndesmosis strain in late 2019
• 13 were due to a medial ligament injury in early 2022 and ongoing soreness thereafter resulting in further post season surgery
• 12 were due to an assortment of 1-2 game absences that I’m not researching but there was a one week suspension and a week off due to covid amongst it

So aside from from his 2 knee reconstructions he’s had OP (2013), Achilles surgery (2016) and a medial ligament (2022).

The Achilles problem he’s currently having is said to be an ongoing issue he’s been managing for years

It’s almost as if he’s had an issue with being able to do any significant running since he had groin issues requiring surgery in the 2012 post season. I doubt the medical staff have deliberately been putting weight on him but have instead had to manage his training loads due to a number of leg injuries including reconstructions on both knees
 
Keys said:
Naitanui- games by year

2009- 10/11 (debuted in R12)
2010- 22/22
2011- 23/25
2012- 22/24
2013- 11/22 (missed R1-5, 18-23)
2014- 20/22
2015- 23/25
2016- 15/23 (missed R14-19, R22 injured knee)
2017- DNP/24
2018- 15/25 (R8 suspended, R17 injured knee)
2019- 5/24 (missed R1-14, 18-23)
2020- 17/18
2021- 22/22
2022- 8/22 (missed R2, 5-15, 18-19,23)

From 13 full seasons played 20+ games 6 times plus 2020 when he missed 1 game in a shortened season. So 6 seasons where he played less than 20 games

Played 213 of a possible 309 games since debut

Of the 96 games he missed -

• 48 were due to his 2 knee reconstructions across 2016-19
• 11 were due battling OP in 2013 after having surgery at the end of 2012
• 6 were due to mid season Achilles surgery in 2016
• 6 were due to a syndesmosis strain in late 2019
• 13 were due to a medial ligament injury in early 2022 and ongoing soreness thereafter resulting in further post season surgery
• 12 were due to an assortment of 1-2 game absences that I’m not researching but there was a one week suspension and a week off due to covid amongst it

So aside from from his 2 knee reconstructions he’s had OP (2013), Achilles surgery (2016) and a medial ligament (2022).

The Achilles problem he’s currently having is said to be an ongoing issue he’s been managing for years

It’s almost as if he’s had an issue with being able to do any significant running since he had groin issues requiring surgery in the 2012 post season. I doubt the medical staff have deliberately been putting weight on him but have instead had to manage his training loads due to a number of leg injuries including reconstructions on both knees
Click to expand...
It's actually amazing to think he's played a decade in the game without the ability to cover long distances. It shows how dominant he is at what he excels at (winning the ruck to advantage or excellent follow-up if the ball hits the ground).

He feels a look like Pridda to me these days. Is elite at what he is good at and worst in the league at what he isn't. Like Prid, I don't think we'll move forward until we replace him and find a solution to have a serviceable ruck all game that doesn't stuff our rotations (so we effectively play 1 man short).
 
PremiershipNo4 said:
As much as I agree with most of this, we wouldn’t have finished as high as we did in 2018 without NicNat, and therefore wouldn’t have won the flag, he’s worth every cent
Click to expand...

Not discounting how good he is/was when out there and fit, at the end of the day the reason he was constantly getting rushed back into the team and paid the big bucks is because when he was out there he has an immense impact on the outcome of games.

But the problem is there's a huge hidden opportunity cost with nicnat and always has been.

Yes when he is out there he wins a lot of games just due to his ability to pile on decisive centre square clearances which get converted into rapid scoring. That's pretty much all he does and it is an extremely valuable game turning skill it's why he gets paid what he gets paid.

Against that you have to consider, over his entire career, both the good bits and bad-
-what does that kind of salary cap space and draft pick get you on the open market? Because over his career he would have been on a wage equivalent to what a clearance machine, goal kicking multiple AA calibre midfielders, like Dustin Martin or Selwood, or 70 goal a year tall forwards like Lynch or Cameron might be getting- in the free agency era that is what we are potentially missing out on by investing our money in NicNat Pty Ltd. Those guys are absolutely game winners in their own way and responsible for flags, and have been out on the park way more
-what is the wear and tear to other players, and the effect on results over 4 quarters and 23 rounds, of constantly playing games with 1 player who cannot run out 4 quarters, can't provide that extra link possession, and usually required an extra ruckman to back him up in the 22. It is impossible to assess those factors against the very tangible, very memorable 7 or 8 decisive, pure, straight onto shuey's chest centre square hitouts you might get from nicnat when he's up and about, but logically you can't have 21 endurance athletes trying to run against 22 every week without it slowly starting to impact late in games?
-what is the impact on team development, and midfield of constantly having to shift gears from being an attacking, centre square clearance team to a defensive hold possession, manage the gaping hole in the ruck situation that crops up whenever nicnat gets injured? And what does it mean in terms of player retention and development? With extra opportunity and $$ we would have had a far better shot at keeping Lycett, and certainly could have kept Hickey either of whom would be pretty ******* handy for Rd 1.

I'm really not knocking Nicnat's contribution or his ability, but I do think when you look back at his career the club has made the wrong call about how to use him and the opportunity cost has slowly mounted up over time. And unless we are planning on winning a flag in the next couple of years I do wonder what the point of him is..surely those minutes are better sunk into Williams and Jamieson and the midfield spends its time learning to play with a more conventional ruck setup?
 
Total_Juddshanks said:
Not discounting how good he is/was when out there and fit, at the end of the day the reason he was constantly getting rushed back into the team and paid the big bucks is because when he was out there he has an immense impact on the outcome of games.

But the problem is there's a huge hidden opportunity cost with nicnat and always has been.

Yes when he is out there he wins a lot of games just due to his ability to pile on decisive centre square clearances which get converted into rapid scoring. That's pretty much all he does and it is an extremely valuable game turning skill it's why he gets paid what he gets paid.

Against that you have to consider, over his entire career, both the good bits and bad-
-what does that kind of salary cap space and draft pick get you on the open market? Because over his career he would have been on a wage equivalent to what a clearance machine, goal kicking multiple AA calibre midfielders, like Dustin Martin or Selwood, or 70 goal a year tall forwards like Lynch or Cameron might be getting- in the free agency era that is what we are potentially missing out on by investing our money in NicNat Pty Ltd. Those guys are absolutely game winners in their own way and responsible for flags, and have been out on the park way more
-what is the wear and tear to other players, and the effect on results over 4 quarters and 23 rounds, of constantly playing games with 1 player who cannot run out 4 quarters, can't provide that extra link possession, and usually required an extra ruckman to back him up in the 22. It is impossible to assess those factors against the very tangible, very memorable 7 or 8 decisive, pure, straight onto shuey's chest centre square hitouts you might get from nicnat when he's up and about, but logically you can't have 21 endurance athletes trying to run against 22 every week without it slowly starting to impact late in games?
-what is the impact on team development, and midfield of constantly having to shift gears from being an attacking, centre square clearance team to a defensive hold possession, manage the gaping hole in the ruck situation that crops up whenever nicnat gets injured? And what does it mean in terms of player retention and development? With extra opportunity and $$ we would have had a far better shot at keeping Lycett, and certainly could have kept Hickey either of whom would be pretty ******* handy for Rd 1.

I'm really not knocking Nicnat's contribution or his ability, but I do think when you look back at his career the club has made the wrong call about how to use him and the opportunity cost has slowly mounted up over time. And unless we are planning on winning a flag in the next couple of years I do wonder what the point of him is..surely those minutes are better sunk into Williams and Jamieson and the midfield spends its time learning to play with a more conventional ruck setup?
Click to expand...
I think you have really over exaggerated this. Naitanui plays around 60-70% game time. Gawn for comparison plays about 80-90%. Its not like its a 2:1 ratio.

Most teams play 2 ruckmen or at least a part timer back up. So unless their 2nd ruckman is tearing us up running at 100% game time, there isn't that much difference. The main thing is that whoever backs up Nic is also being used as a forward.
 
WCErevival said:
I think you have really over exaggerated this. Naitanui plays around 60-70% game time. Gawn for comparison plays about 80-90%. Its not like its a 2:1 ratio.

Most teams play 2 ruckmen or at least a part timer back up. So unless their 2nd ruckman is tearing us up running at 100% game time, there isn't that much difference. The main thing is that whoever backs up Nic is also being used as a forward.
Click to expand...

As I said over time that discrepancy in ground time stacks up, a lot when you're comparing him to other superstar calibre players And it's not just ground time, it's the loss of output due to poor endurance when they are out there and poor week to week durability and consequent loss of predictability for the midfield.

Gawn is really the perfect example of what value for money looks like when it comes to superstar ruckman and how durable reliable quantity has a quality of its own.

From the start of 2018 he's missed 6 games in total compared to Nicnat having missed 48 (?!).

During that time he's averaged about 4 or 5 more disposals a game than Nicnat, and 3 or 4 more marks a game. The discrepancy in their overhead game is huge- Gawn takes more contested marks a game than nicnat takes marks period, because during the (longer) time he is out on the ground he runs harder, fills defensive space, gets to more contests and provides more of a link option for his midfielders. That stuff might not look as good on the highlight reels but in a game as heavily focused on endurance running as AFL, it is incredibly valuable. It is the exact same reason someone Gaff is disliked by fans but a fixture in the team- what he does might not look particularly good on tv, but for coaches and teammates out on the field trying to survive the endurance running torture chamber that is a modern afl game, having a guy who constantly runs hard, is always there to cover defensive space, is always pushing into space and nearby when they need to get rid of it and can do that for four quarters and if needed stay out there for a few extra minutes if someone is blowing hard and needs a longer spell, that s**t is absolute gold.

And those are gawn's averages - when you consider the raw output he provides his team because he's stayed out on the park week in week out by maintaining his condition and playing a brand of football that suits his frame, the difference is light years apart. Yes he might not generate quite as many sublime hitouts to advantage on a given night as prime nicnat but he is at least a very very good tap ruckman and his durability and longevity and all the things he does around the ground is pretty much why Melbourne became such a force during that period- the midfielders knew what they were getting each quarter and each week and can plan accordingly. Without hyperbole, if his wages since 2018 aren't twice or three times what nicnats are (and they plainly aren't) either Max or West Coast are getting ripped off.
 
Total_Juddshanks said:
Not discounting how good he is/was when out there and fit, at the end of the day the reason he was constantly getting rushed back into the team and paid the big bucks is because when he was out there he has an immense impact on the outcome of games.

But the problem is there's a huge hidden opportunity cost with nicnat and always has been.

Yes when he is out there he wins a lot of games just due to his ability to pile on decisive centre square clearances which get converted into rapid scoring. That's pretty much all he does and it is an extremely valuable game turning skill it's why he gets paid what he gets paid.

Against that you have to consider, over his entire career, both the good bits and bad-
-what does that kind of salary cap space and draft pick get you on the open market? Because over his career he would have been on a wage equivalent to what a clearance machine, goal kicking multiple AA calibre midfielders, like Dustin Martin or Selwood, or 70 goal a year tall forwards like Lynch or Cameron might be getting- in the free agency era that is what we are potentially missing out on by investing our money in NicNat Pty Ltd. Those guys are absolutely game winners in their own way and responsible for flags, and have been out on the park way more
-what is the wear and tear to other players, and the effect on results over 4 quarters and 23 rounds, of constantly playing games with 1 player who cannot run out 4 quarters, can't provide that extra link possession, and usually required an extra ruckman to back him up in the 22. It is impossible to assess those factors against the very tangible, very memorable 7 or 8 decisive, pure, straight onto shuey's chest centre square hitouts you might get from nicnat when he's up and about, but logically you can't have 21 endurance athletes trying to run against 22 every week without it slowly starting to impact late in games?
-what is the impact on team development, and midfield of constantly having to shift gears from being an attacking, centre square clearance team to a defensive hold possession, manage the gaping hole in the ruck situation that crops up whenever nicnat gets injured? And what does it mean in terms of player retention and development? With extra opportunity and $$ we would have had a far better shot at keeping Lycett, and certainly could have kept Hickey either of whom would be pretty ******* handy for Rd 1.

I'm really not knocking Nicnat's contribution or his ability, but I do think when you look back at his career the club has made the wrong call about how to use him and the opportunity cost has slowly mounted up over time. And unless we are planning on winning a flag in the next couple of years I do wonder what the point of him is..surely those minutes are better sunk into Williams and Jamieson and the midfield spends its time learning to play with a more conventional ruck setup?
Click to expand...

Next time I see Tim Kelly jogging around not bothering to apply defensive pressure or Dom Sheed waiting for a cheap handball receive I’ll be sure to remember it’s Nic Nat’s fault for making them tired 👍
 
Total_Juddshanks said:
As I said over time that discrepancy in ground time stacks up, a lot when you're comparing him to other superstar calibre players And it's not just ground time, it's the loss of output due to poor endurance when they are out there and poor week to week durability and consequent loss of predictability for the midfield.

Gawn is really the perfect example of what value for money looks like when it comes to superstar ruckman and how durable reliable quantity has a quality of its own.

From the start of 2018 he's missed 6 games in total compared to Nicnat having missed 48 (?!).

During that time he's averaged about 4 or 5 more disposals a game than Nicnat, and 3 or 4 more marks a game. The discrepancy in their overhead game is huge- Gawn takes more contested marks a game than nicnat takes marks period, because during the (longer) time he is out on the ground he runs harder, fills defensive space, gets to more contests and provides more of a link option for his midfielders. That stuff might not look as good on the highlight reels but in a game as heavily focused on endurance running as AFL, it is incredibly valuable. It is the exact same reason someone Gaff is disliked by fans but a fixture in the team- what he does might not look particularly good on tv, but for coaches and teammates out on the field trying to survive the endurance running torture chamber that is a modern afl game, having a guy who constantly runs hard, is always there to cover defensive space, is always pushing into space and nearby when they need to get rid of it and can do that for four quarters and if needed stay out there for a few extra minutes if someone is blowing hard and needs a longer spell, that s**t is absolute gold.

And those are gawn's averages - when you consider the raw output he provides his team because he's stayed out on the park week in week out by maintaining his condition and playing a brand of football that suits his frame, the difference is light years apart. Yes he might not generate quite as many sublime hitouts to advantage on a given night as prime nicnat but he is at least a very very good tap ruckman and his durability and longevity and all the things he does around the ground is pretty much why Melbourne became such a force during that period- the midfielders knew what they were getting each quarter and each week and can plan accordingly. Without hyperbole, if his wages since 2018 aren't twice or three times what nicnats are (and they plainly aren't) either Max or West Coast are getting ripped off.
Click to expand...

Gawn was drafted in 2009 (one year after Naitanui) and has played 181 games compared to Naitanui’s 213

That’s largely because he only played 39 games during his first 5 years because he had 2 knee reconstructions during his early years. By comparison Naitanui had played 88 in his first 5 years

From 2016 Gawn has been very durable (aside from missing 9 games in 2017, he’s not missed many others)

He has a naturally lighter frame than Naitanui and arguably benefited from playing less games with a younger body getting smashed into by stronger opponents

Averages - Naitanui v Gawn

Kicks : 5.28 v 8.88
Marks: 1.75 v 4.50
H/Balls : 7.07 v 6.39
Disposals: 12.34 v 15.27
Goals : 0.53 v 0.49
Hitouts : 26.07 v 33.84
Tackles : 3.38 v 2.51
Clearances : 4.23 v 3.31
Contested Possessions : 9.59 v 8.66


In terms of value for money we’ve had as many good years out of Naitanui as Melbourne have from Gawn.

It should also be noted that whilst Naitanui has been among our highest paid players (possibly the highest in one or more years) a large part of his salary comes out of the marketing budget/allowance. Which is fair since he’s been the face of the club virtually since he walked in the door and has not once done anything to tarnish the club’s image despite being one of the most instantly recognisable people in Perth

Gawn is only just now catching up to Nic in terms of cumulative wear and tear on his body. Let’s see how he fares over the next couple of years albeit he now has Grundy to share the load
 
Keys said:
He has a naturally lighter frame than Naitanui and arguably benefited from playing less games with a younger body getting smashed into by stronger opponents
Click to expand...
This was actually goes back to my fundamental point about how the club has probably made some wrong calls about nicnat's development.

I really don't think gawn has a 'naturally lighter frame'- I think possibly due to the early knee injuries he realised that something had to give in terms of his playing weight and style of play, and made the sensible decision to prioritise endurance over weight and power.
 

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Wanted to have a quick look at what this may look like Round 1 - 2024. At this stage we have all players available except for Culley I would say.

It looks as though we will bring in at least a ruckman and Brockman + draftees.

FB - Cole Barrass Hough
CHB - Duggan McGovern Yeo
W - Chesser Kelly Hunt
CHF - Reid Darling Cripps
FF - Maric Allen Ryan
R - Williams Ginbey Hewett
Int - Long, Brockman, Sheed, Gaff, RUCK, Witho, Petch, JJones

Happy to leave Yeoy down back. He can play the third tall, easier on his body, and allows good mid time for Hewett, Ginbey, Reid and potentially Long to go in at times.
 
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