Blues Quick Small Fwds...

[The Exorcist]

I already responded to that point, so why are you mentioning it again? Of those three Carlton wins, Fevola kicked 7 goals in a 23 point win, and then he kicked 8 goals in a 30 point win, while the other match was when Collingwood were decimated with injury and confidence was at it's lowest point of last season.Of course it's dangerous, but in five matches so far this season, Carlton has kicked approximately 91 total points less than they had at the same stage of last season, although that is partly due to Judd missing for three matches, and a new structure. So far Collingwood has kicked 23 points more, which would have been greater if it wasn't for poor conversion (70 goals and 79 behinds total to date), while the highest score that an opposition has kicked against Collingwood has only been 13.15.93 by the Western Bulldogs in Round 1. In the last three weeks, the opposition has only been able to kick 10 goals, 8 goals, and 8 goals.No, it wasn't the sole reason. Collingwood's confidence at the time was at it's lowest point of the season as well with only 3 wins and 5 losses and 11th on the ladder.

As for your use of statistics (which you use a LOT), you tend to ONLY focus on the positive Collingwood stats, or highlight opposition stats when it shines a positive light on the Pies. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it raises severe questions on your objectively, especially when it's subjective in the belief that it's objective - for example, there's a crucial stat that you downplay in your all talk about Fev not playing for Carlton or the Pies' injuries and low confidence, etc, and that is that the Blues just bet the reigning premier.

Yes KS, the Pies' confidence must've been pretty low at that point in the season, but I guess not as low as the Blues who are the worst performed team of the last decade. Still, the Blues won that game.

At day's end, the Pies deserve to be favourites. I'm not going to repeat the reasons why, other than to say the Pies play top line pressure football, they just whittle away at the opposition until it cracks. The question from a Carlton perspective is, if the Blues can withstand the Pies pressure, can the Carlton midfield and small forwards recapture yesterday's form?

 

[Spoony]

At day's end, the Pies deserve to be favourites. I'm not going to repeat the reasons why, other than to say the Pies play top line pressure football, they just whittle away at the opposition until it cracks. The question from a Carlton perspective is, if the Blues can withstand the Pies pressure, can the Carlton midfield and small forwards recapture yesterday's form?

For a carlton supporter your pretty reasonable

But I got to say I don't think that the Blues small forwards will be able to play as well as they did against Geelong. Geelong's backline is full of slower taller defenders such as hunt, whereas Collingwood’s matches up allot better with the likes of Yaren, Betts, and Garlett, we have Toovey, who I think is underrated for his defensive ability, Harry who should beat whoever he plays on and Shaw who is also very good defensively.

Even if the Blues with stand the Pies pressure, I still don't see Carlton's midfield blowing Collingwood's away, so as long as Collingwood's defence holds up I think the pies will win, although I admit I am a bit more wary of Carlton than allot of pies supporters are. Will be interesting to see if it is possible to nullify Judd he was amazing on the weekend, and I think he is properly the only difference between the two midfields, apart from him I think they are pretty close.

 

[mwalker]

Don't read too much into this. Even though they destroyed Port, Geelong have been flat all year and are starting to fall back to the pack.

They're no longer that unbeatable force and we're in much better form.

Agreed it happens eventually. Geelong will lose a couple more this year.

We look good......And the game of the round this week. Two games on in two weeks. Pretty Nervous now.

 

[Black Flag]

man for man we should win, but just hope our heads are in the right space.

 

[hellfire]

man for man we should win, but just hope our heads are in the right space.

Oh please Black Flog...

We're a far better side than you and will tear you to shreds if our pressure is anything like the last two weeks [and we kick straight]. We've all been there and beaten the Cats [albeit we did it at their peak and by 86 points].

Looking forward to this game.

 

[Black Flag]

We've all been there and beaten the Cats [albeit we did it at their peak and by 86 points]

true. that was also the same year where we beat you twice.

 

[Syphoncom]

I guess we should hope you beat us again then hey?

We'll make the 8, and you'll miss out again.

 

[the_fresh]

we'll stop them, whenever we've played Carlton it was Fev that worried me the most. Betts and the other 2 will be matched up well by our back 6, who are the best back 6 in the game.

My biggest worry back there is if Gibbs takes Shaw to fullback again.

 

[Optimax]

Fyi that wont work we normally tag heath shaw with Carazzo and there isn't a whole lot you can do about it you either then accept a 2v1 or switch another bloke onto yarran.

lol carazzo

oh shit your serious

 

[the_fresh]

Collingwood's tackling will have Carlton out of the game within minutes.

Young teams find it hard to play a bashing type of game when they're not used to it.

 

[Invigoration]

Lol Carlton.

Send the reserves out this week, good week for the seniors to have a rest. No need to cop any injuries against a bottom 8 struggler, we are talking about a team that couldn't beat Essendon, we might as well have a bye this week.

 

[davis_756]

lol carazzo

oh shit your serious

He tagged him as a forward in 1 game against you and took him right out of the game from memory while kicking 1-2 goals to go with it.

 

[davis_756]

Oh please Black Flog...

We're a far better side than you and will tear you to shreds if our pressure is anything like the last two weeks [and we kick straight]. We've all been there and beaten the Cats [albeit we did it at their peak and by 86 points].

Looking forward to this game.

Man vs Man the only cats player to beat their man last week was ablett, if you win it won't be through man on man football it will be through defensive zone/flooding of your backline.

 

[Optimax]

He tagged him as a forward in 1 game against you and took him right out of the game from memory while kicking 1-2 goals to go with it.

Thats happened once and it was Gibbs *******

Still major lulz you actually rate carazzo

 

[Optimax]

Man vs Man the only cats player to beat their man last week was ablett, if you win it won't be through man on man football it will be through defensive zone/flooding of your backline.

We could play basketball and still beat you

 

[Jabso]

So basically we have no chance Davis?

The #1 player in the comp is Ablett and #2-23 are the 22 that lined up against Geelong?

You did lose to Essendon, the Carlton that came to play last week won't show up/won't be allowed to play that way every week.

 

[Syphoncom]

Man vs Man the only cats player to beat their man last week was ablett, if you win it won't be through man on man football it will be through defensive zone/flooding of your backline.

You gotta be trolling bro. You're gonna get decimated. I wish the game went for 40 quarters so we could win by 4 figures.

 

[Zahki]

Man vs Man the only cats player to beat their man last week was ablett, if you win it won't be through man on man football it will be through defensive zone/flooding of your backline.

We have a much, much better team than Carlton. Doesn't matter if we play man on man, zone or skip rope.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

As we all known quite well, pressure wins games of football. No matter how good or bad a game plan is, if you come out with more intensity and tackle harder then your opponents you should win. Port did nothing of the sort against Geelong, against St Kilda they were a different team.

It is all to do with the over handball game plan sides use to get out of trouble these days, if you put on enough pressure instead of doing 2 handballs to find some space teams are forced to do 7 or 8 and turn it over and the quick rebound is the easiest way to score a goal.

This is why in a round with 8 clear favorites we seen 4 big upsets, it is all about intensity at the ball carrier which is why anyone of 5-6 clubs could win the flag this year.

The option you take when you are under the pump has got everything to do with the moment you are in and little to do with any game plan.

You are right with the importance of intensity but when it is matched then the quality of defence is paramount.

Carlton have to win comprehensively through the midfield to win on Sunday

 

[Weiterbot23]

Simon White (new boy) will goto cloke, should the most be uneventful least exciting match up of the day.

imo we have no one 4 swan

 

[dumb]

We have a much, much better team than Carlton. Doesn't matter if we play man on man, zone or skip rope.

yeah but we're going to bring our drinking game

i think collingwood will be better prepared having watched what was going on a week earlier. looking forward to seeing whether my team can replicate it or not actually.

 

[davis_756]

So basically we have no chance Davis?

The #1 player in the comp is Ablett and #2-23 are the 22 that lined up against Geelong?

You did lose to Essendon, the Carlton that came to play last week won't show up/won't be allowed to play that way every week.

My post was in reference to hellfire calling black flag a flog for stating we can win man vs man.

We beat Geelong man vs man, we can beat collingwood man vs man. That was all I was saying I just added a bit to stir the pot by saying you can't win man vs man.

We did lose to essendon yes but we have lost to them the last 5-6 times, it hasn't stopped us winning 3 of the last 4 vs collingwood. A fundamental flaw in our game is the ability to find a target in a crowded forward 50, essendon flood and kill us on the rebound a weakness adelaide and sydney have been exploiting for many many years.

The win over adelaide was far more important then the geelong win to our side, our kicking is becoming more pin point and our small forwards are keeping the ball locked up in our forward 50.

Make no mistake Collingwood will be the hardest test we have faced this year, if you play with that same kind of pressure as the past few weeks you won't be far off a flag this year and for us its another test to see if our improved skill levels can remain under high pressure.

I for one hope both sides come out tackling hard and combine for 180+ tackles, it will be a great test for both sides being put under extreme pressure my only worry is we will come out flat after beating the cats, time will tell though.

 

[Pie eyed]

My post was in reference to hellfire calling black flag a flog for stating we can win man vs man.

We beat Geelong man vs man, we can beat collingwood man vs man. That was all I was saying I just added a bit to stir the pot by saying you can't win man vs man.

We did lose to essendon yes but we have lost to them the last 5-6 times, it hasn't stopped us winning 3 of the last 4 vs collingwood. A fundamental flaw in our game is the ability to find a target in a crowded forward 50, essendon flood and kill us on the rebound a weakness adelaide and sydney have been exploiting for many many years.

The win over adelaide was far more important then the geelong win to our side, our kicking is becoming more pin point and our small forwards are keeping the ball locked up in our forward 50.

Make no mistake Collingwood will be the hardest test we have faced this year, if you play with that same kind of pressure as the past few weeks you won't be far off a flag this year and for us its another test to see if our improved skill levels can remain under high pressure.

I for one hope both sides come out tackling hard and combine for 180+ tackles, it will be a great test for both sides being put under extreme pressure my only worry is we will come out flat after beating the cats, time will tell though.

Black Flag has no right to an opinion if he can't keep his bets, here on any other board.

No rights for welchers.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=699517&page=4

 

[KissStephanie]

As for your use of statistics (which you use a LOT)

I mention statistics in a minority of my posts. So? Statistics should not be ignored as many people tend to do, but neither should people base an opinion purely on them.

you tend to ONLY focus on the positive Collingwood stats, or highlight opposition stats when it shines a positive light on the Pies.

Please don't bring me into this on a personal level. If you don't agree with something from my previous post, then which part?

Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it raises severe questions on your objectively, especially when it's subjective in the belief that it's objective

Severe questions? You're not just slightly exaggerating now are you? Come on now. I have no intention of defending the minority of times that I use statistics when supporting my point of view from time to time, and nor should I. I am only interested in discussing the topic. If there is something in my previous post that you disagree with, then please just state what it is instead of judging and/or analysing me.

there's a crucial stat that you downplay in your all talk about Fev not playing for Carlton or the Pies' injuries and low confidence, etc, and that is that the Blues just bet the reigning premier.

Firstly, I am aware that Carlton has just beaten the reigning premiers, as Fremantle did two weeks previously. Secondly, although Geelong have been a great team, I have not at any stage since last years Grand Final felt they could win the premiership, or even make the Grand Final, this season. Geelong do not have a lot of depth, and it's hard to remain so dominant for four seasons. Thirdly, in this post, I clearly congratulated Carlton on a very good performance. Finally, I only mentioned Fevola because another Carlton supported had first stated in this post that Carlton has won three of the previous four matches against Collingwood.

It's quite reasonable to suggest they would not have won two of those three matches without him, regardless of the fact they had just beaten Geelong last weekend. That however does not mean that Carlton cannot win this week, it simply means that not a lot can be read in to those recent past wins because a very important factor is now missing. The make-up of the Carlton team that will take the field this weekend is quite different. Time will tell whether Collingwood matches up better against the new Carlton forward structure compared to the old one with Fev, which we seemed to struggle against.

Yes KS, the Pies' confidence must've been pretty low at that point in the season, but I guess not as low as the Blues who are the worst performed team of the last decade.

Come on now. I'm sure Carlton were quite confident of beating a severely undermanned Collingwood that had just been thrashed by 88 points against St.Kilda the previous week. The Blues were quite firm favourites to win that match, and I had no idea how Collingwood were going to kick anywhere near enough goals to beat any team with so many forwards missing.

Still, the Blues won that game.

Travis Cloke, Alan Didak, Josh Fraser, Ben Johnson, Dale Thomas, Chris Dawes and Paul Medhurst were missing from last weeks team, while Brad Dick (22 goals from 16 matches in 2009) was injured too. Anthony Rocca couldn't even be called upon, whilst Luke Ball and Darren Jolly were not at the club yet. I don't think there was any realistic Collingwood supporter that felt it was possible to beat Carlton that day following a confidence draining belting from St.Kilda the previous week. The Magpies did well by turning it around and winning the next seven matches, and twelve of the next thirteen, including a 54 point win against Carlton in Round 17, to finish 4th on the ladder.

At day's end, the Pies deserve to be favourites. I'm not going to repeat the reasons why, other than to say the Pies play top line pressure football, they just whittle away at the opposition until it cracks.

Yes Collingwood deserve to be favourites. Currently Geelong are out to $4.75 to win the premiership followed by St.Kilda and Western Bulldogs at $5.00 equal second favourites, and Collingwood has shortened in to $6.00. There is very little between those four teams. Brisbane are next at $10, whilst Carlton are ninth favourites at $21. Collingwood are $1.56 to win on the weekend, and Carlton are $2.44, which sounds about right at this stage going by the current form of both teams.

It's impossible for two teams to play their very best at the same time, but if all things are equal, and both teams make the most of their opportunities, and both teams play equally to their potential, then Collingwood will win. That doesn't always happen though of course as shown with a few teams as recently as last weekend.

Carlton seem to have turned the corner since Judd has returned to the team following the horrible performance against Essendon, and I expect them to play well. Collingwood turned the corner after the narrow escape against Melbourne, and the heavy criticism of the coach and the team following the run-in with Stephen Milne, and the dreadful second half performance in front of goal that night against a St.Kilda team that had lost Nick Riewoldt. I expect Collingwood to play well too.

The question from a Carlton perspective is, if the Blues can withstand the Pies pressure, can the Carlton midfield and small forwards recapture yesterday's form?

The top end of Carlton's midfield is very good, but Collingwood's runs deeper, and I think Collingwood's defence matches up better against those smaller Carlton forwards than Geelong's defence. Those players should find it more difficult than they did last weekend. Maybe Collingwood's smaller forwards of Didak, Davis, Medhurst, and Thomas will all find the goals on the same day at the same time which has happened twice previously so far this season. Hopefully Travis Cloke's better performance on Anzac Day is a sign of bigger and better things to come.

 

[Quicky]

Putting things into perspective:

Carlton should have beaten Brisbane, lost Bower before the game dominated for 3 quarters yet failed to kick accurately and didn't have anyone to play on brown which cost us. Had more clearances, inside 50's, tackles, scoring shots.

Essendon have been a Bogey side for us for a while now, always play horrible vs them, always discount form with our 3 sides invovled.

-----------------

You were lucky to get out of jail vs Melbourne, they really should have won that game.

Hawks are playing for their season already so I doubt anyone will consider them a good win.

-----------------

Decent sides record:
Collingwood 1 Win (Bulldogs) 1 Loss (St Kilda)
Carlton 1 Win (Geelong) 1 Loss (Brisbane)

The only real difference in our season so far has been our inability to play half decent vs essendon, our side was always going to take time to click without Judd/Fevola.

Collingwood's best asset is your pressure play but time and time again you have the tendency to leave it at home vs sides you don't consider up to your class. It often results in you having a harder time with a Melbourne then a Bulldogs, the question you need to ask is do you rate us as a Melbourne or a Bulldogs? My guess is the former which will come back to bite you in the ass if you allow us space and time.

Putting things into perspective?? I'd say creative logic at it's finest. For someone accusing us of showing the Blues no respect you seem to be doing a stellar job of it yourself by stating we have only had one win against decent opposition this year. You're comments that we don't take weaker opposition as seriously is a pearler. Personally i'd say our inconsistent performances over the last few years - including losses to teams you'd expect us to beat - had more to do with the relative inexperience of our list in that time. But hey I guess it's easier to pull out an old cliche about the Pies than looking into it too deeply.

As we all known quite well, pressure wins games of football. No matter how good or bad a game plan is, if you come out with more intensity and tackle harder then your opponents you should win. Port did nothing of the sort against Geelong, against St Kilda they were a different team.

This is a bit of an oversimplification. Look at our game vs. StKilda for proof. We were incredibly good at applying pressure yet we failed with our goalkicking and lost the game. Pressure is important no doubt but many other aspects of the game are equally important.

Fyi that wont work we normally tag heath shaw with Carazzo and there isn't a whole lot you can do about it you either then accept a 2v1 or switch another bloke onto yarran.

Another old myth. It's been awhile since Shaw has been unable to deal with a tag. Besides it was Gibbs that successfully tagged Shaw and i'm sure he'll be needed in a more important role this time around. Irrespective the rest of our half back line has been in very good form and i'm confident could cover for a poor game from Shaw if it occured.

Which Melbourne small forwards did well against us?

Petterd, Green and Dunn accounted for 9 of their 12 goals, and all are more like mid-sized leading forwards. Bennell was awful. Not sure who else they have that would qualify.

As for Carlton's, stick Harry on Yarran, Toovey on Gartlett and Shaw on Betts. With possible exception of some unkind bounces, none of those 3 match-ups are even remotely worrying.

As for around the ground, Judd and Gibbs are the two guys we have to really try to contain. Judd is obviously devistating with his clearance work, and Gibbs is a poor man's Pendlebury in terms of almost always choosing the right option and making his team-mates better.

Murphy, Simpson, Scotland and the rest of the one-way brigade are only really a worry against side that don't apply pressure.

This. It's been two years since small forwards have really been an issue for us. O'Brien, Shaw and Toovey will get the roles on their smalls this week and should do the job.