Analysis Breaking down the Tim Kelly trade.

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Ok Boomer

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Too early to call. I think considering expectations the year was largely a fail with a couple of great games. It wasn't a great year to be starting at a new club.

Our mids in general do not kick many goals except for Sheed and I think Tim's impact was dragged down a bit because of this. He seems to be really durable which is great.
 

Rowan18

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I reckon Redden is another one who plays better when Shuey is out. I almost feel dirty saying it but Shuey is the one I want moved forward for his last couple of years, with bursts through the middle.
Shuey should definitely be moved to HFF, with rotations through the middle as required. Look at Higgins at Norf, he is damaging up forward and has probably extended his career by a few year. Shuey and Ryan up forward will give HBFs nightmares.
 

Dark Sharks

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Yall have short memories.

Our team and structures were garbage 2016-2017 because Simpson hid midfielders on the half forward line instead of playing actual forwards.

With the addition of genuine forwards like Rioli and Ryan to our team in 2018, he cited this as being a major contributor to our success. Moving away from hiding an extra mid.


That's why I'm presuming he's hesitant about "throwing shuey forward" or "throwing Kelly forward". It throws the structures out again.

Bare in mind either of these guys would do a better job than Ainsworth, and he still got games forward despite being a slow as treacle poorly skilled mid.

In fact he got an elimination final.
 

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dkalphy

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Trade: What i get annoyed about is we were bidding with ourselves and he was out of contract. The two first rounders were fine, heck the second and third rounder was okay as well. But why did we only get 2 x third rounders back? This should of been this years second rounder. Look we got fleeced for a player who was out of contract and nominated us, he was never going to Freo.

Output: Lets not forget he and Gaff played every single game, im sure if Kelly played here and there he's numbers would be higher. Look i like TK, he's 26, he shows passion when he plays, and if we're in a flag window, we had to made the trade. Do i expect next year to be better for him? Absolutely

Based on this year alone, he was our best on-baller (Counting Gaff as a winger)
 

DanWCE

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This year must have been extremely difficult for TK with his family situation and hub life. Imagine being holed up in a hotel room with 3 little kids, and dealing with the fixture uncertainties and unknowns. Impossible to be mentally at the top of his game week in, week out.

He looks and sounds absolutely cooked. Knew what he wanted to say about having some time off but couldn't articulate the message properly without sounding a bit ungrateful and spoilt so he just kind of skirted around it.

Imagine doing two years in Geelong without the support of family and having babies/toddlers with non verbal autism, only to finally get back to Perth, buy your dream home for the family, start the season, pause the season, restart the season courtesy of a one way flight to Qld without a return date, then try and repeat the trip late in the year with a condensed fixture.


2020 can go die in a fire
 

YippeeYiYeo

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everyone quick to write off the Kelly trade as overs. But our season came to a premature end because of our injuries and been given that ludicrous stretch of games in the back end of the year that saw us play 5 games in 19 days. Missing key inside midfielder Yeo and Shuey coming off a double hamstring. Tagging Kelly was logical and it worked.

Anyone remember the game round 17 game against St Kilda with a severely depleted midfield?
 

Scotland

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Overs at the time, overs now.

Not because Kelly is no good but was out of contract and leaving anyway. Feeble to give up two firsts and all the change to go with it.

Is Kelly still a top 10 mid? Funny how as soon as he leaves Guthrie is AA and Menegola makes the squad. Almost like playing in Geelong's midfield alongside Danger, Selwood and Ablett helps players look good...
 

Dark Sharks

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Kelly's ranking at the club in his first season (totals).

Looks like he joins only Gaff, Sheppard, Ryan, Barrass, and Darling to play all 18 games in 2020.


#1 for Tackles
#1 for inside 50's
#1 for goal assists
#1 for Metres Gained

#2 for Disposals
#3 for Clearances
#3 for Score involvements
#3 for contested possessions


#1 for Clangers 😐
#1 for Turnovers :huh:
 

The wily weagle

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Serious question:

When was the last time we recruited someone from another club, who came across, and who's form was as good, if not better then their form off their previous club, straight off the bat?

I really can't think of one. Jetta, Wellingham (in his time with us), Redden, Yeo, Cripps all took years to return to, or exceed previous form. Hickey has been well below his best. Kelly, whilst decent, hasnt hit his Geelong level yet.

The only person I can think of who fits the bill might be Vardy, who had a freak 2018 and then has stagnated again since then.

I have long wondered whether it's a matter of player integration, culture, a social aspect etc?

This happens at all clubs, but it just seems to happen at our club at a disproportionate level. I mean Dangefield had no problem in his first season with the cats, ditto Ablett at the suns.

I don't have an answer to this phenomenon, so draw your own conclusions.
 

FreeTK

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Serious question:

When was the last time we recruited someone from another club, who came across, and who's form was as good, if not better then their form off their previous club, straight off the bat?

I really can't think of one. Jetta, Wellingham (in his time with us), Redden, Yeo, Cripps all took years to return to, or exceed previous form. Hickey has been well below his best. Kelly, whilst decent, hasnt hit his Geelong level yet.

The only person I can think of who fits the bill might be Vardy, who had a freak 2018 and then has stagnated again since then.

I have long wondered whether it's a matter of player integration, culture, a social aspect etc?

This happens at all clubs, but it just seems to happen at our club at a disproportionate level. I mean Dangefield had no problem in his first season with the cats, ditto Ablett at the suns.

I don't have an answer to this phenomenon, so draw your own conclusions.
Cummings.
 

FreeTK

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Trade: What i get annoyed about is we were bidding with ourselves and he was out of contract. The two first rounders were fine, heck the second and third rounder was okay as well. But why did we only get 2 x third rounders back? This should of been this years second rounder. Look we got fleeced for a player who was out of contract and nominated us, he was never going to Freo.

Output: Lets not forget he and Gaff played every single game, im sure if Kelly played here and there he's numbers would be higher. Look i like TK, he's 26, he shows passion when he plays, and if we're in a flag window, we had to made the trade. Do i expect next year to be better for him? Absolutely

Based on this year alone, he was our best on-baller (Counting Gaff as a winger)
Overs at the time, overs now.

Not because Kelly is no good but was out of contract and leaving anyway. Feeble to give up two firsts and all the change to go with it.

Is Kelly still a top 10 mid? Funny how as soon as he leaves Guthrie is AA and Menegola makes the squad. Almost like playing in Geelong's midfield alongside Danger, Selwood and Ablett helps players look good...
You guys are going off the draft value index.

Everybody knows that the value of draft picks aren't scaled to their points index.

We gave up 13, 14, 24, 31.

Not a single top 10 pick.

In 2019 Kelly was easily worth the same as Treloar, Shiel, Beams in 2014. Clubs all gave up 2 top 10 picks for those players.

Kelly was and is worth 2 top 10 picks. We didn't have them.

We didn't have a single top ten pick. We could have either tried to package 14/24/31 in to the top 10 and handed that over + our future first, or just hand over the picks to Geelong so they can try and get a top 10 pick out of it.
 

FreeTK

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He dealt with the tag well at geelong. SO i have no concerns.

His season was good, not great. Will get better with a more normal season this year.

Would do the trade again in a heart beat. Him and Yeo will be a nightmare for clubs moving forward.
He didn't deal with the tag well at Geelong.

But not dealing with a tag well isn't as important if Shuey is match fit and Yeo is in the team as well.

I think if Shuey, Yeo and Kelly are all in the same team next year and can play almost every game we will be top 4. The tag on Kelly on the weekend was a match winner for Collingwood as there was no one else to step up. Shuey was obviously under done (he said his lungs were blowing up in the second quarter), and Yeo was out.

If we can maintain the health of our midfield next year we will be a much more dangerous prospect.
 

Dark Sharks

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When was the last time we recruited someone from another club, who came across, and who's form was as good, if not better then their form off their previous club, straight off the bat?

Yeo, Cripps all took years to return to, or exceed previous form. Hickey has been well below his best.

Yeo didn't. He was pretty much Brisbane esq Yeo straight up, which a the time was a zippy half back with potential. That's it.

Vardy, Petrie and Mitchell (the 2016 recruits) were all decent straight away. Going way back, Kennedy was amazing in his debut game for us.


I was about to agree, saying that i think the majority of our recruits seem to struggle initially, but the more i think, that's not true.


Wellingham's first season in 2013 was very good for us as well. He legitimately looked like a very classy and creative mid before he got injured.

He went backwards in 2014, before the backline switch reinvented him in 2015 with Shep.

Hickey was solid in 2019, his form didn't drop off at all.
 
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Rowan18

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Serious question:

When was the last time we recruited someone from another club, who came across, and who's form was as good, if not better then their form off their previous club, straight off the bat?

I really can't think of one. Jetta, Wellingham (in his time with us), Redden, Yeo, Cripps all took years to return to, or exceed previous form. Hickey has been well below his best. Kelly, whilst decent, hasnt hit his Geelong level yet.

The only person I can think of who fits the bill might be Vardy, who had a freak 2018 and then has stagnated again since then.

I have long wondered whether it's a matter of player integration, culture, a social aspect etc?

This happens at all clubs, but it just seems to happen at our club at a disproportionate level. I mean Dangefield had no problem in his first season with the cats, ditto Ablett at the suns.

I don't have an answer to this phenomenon, so draw your own conclusions.
Hickey had a career best year in 2019.

You're right about guys like Jetta, Redden and Wellingham, but I feel it's because we drafted them then got them to change their roles. All came good in the end, though wellingham was a lazy bastard.
 

Chris_6678

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Interesting a lot of people that are annoyed about the cost of Kelly but are saying we should get Cripps ( who will cost more in my opinion)

Kelly i felt like had to shoulder a fair chunk of the midfield with Shuey and Yeo having injuries. He was tagged as should be but it takes time to learn to break through a tag , you only have to look at Gaff and Shuey who were tagged constantly from 2011-2014 but learnt to break a tag. With Shuey it was more obvious he was struggling with multiple niggles as they managed his game time quite a bit in the middle part of the year.

There just never felt cohesion with the midfield with niggles and injuries impacting that. Also with the break between round 1 and 2 would have impacting that aspect also. On paper we have a very balanced midfield but needs to be utilised better.

I would be going in with this setup for round 1:


Waterman Sheed Gaff

Ruck: Nic Nat Kelly Yeo

HFF: Shuey ( Rotate with Kelly)

Bench: Redden ( Defensive mid) Xon ( Inside/outside mid)

Waterman: Reason he is on a wing is that he is fit enough to go up and down the field and is a great mark and would be a lot better option than plonking Brander there or a player like Redden.

Xon: Pump as many games into him as we can as i see him as Shuey relacement ( Big call but we have to start somewhere)

Redden: If he is fit and firing he is a great defensive option to cover not having a tagger and letting Yeo go beast mode from the centre.
 

wadistance

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I’m glad you compared his stats with at least one other player ... stats in shortened games can tell a bit of a false tale

Solid without being spectacular. But would a pick 13 or 14 or even pick 1 had had that immediate output? Perhaps, but unlikely

I’m a fan still


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

flyinghi64

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It's hard enough going to a new team with a different game plan and coaching technique without having the first pre-season interrupted, cancelled, resumed in a limited capability etc.
Then getting shipped off to hub on the other side of the country for a couple of months, return home for several weeks before shipping off to play a 5 weeks worth of footy in 2-1/2.
Then to top things off half the fellow top midfielders get injured for the last few massively important games of the season leaving Kelly pretty much the tagged no1 mid for the team.

Yeah, reckon we just wipe this season for what it was "totally F-K-D up" and lets judge the poor guy who tried his guts out all year next year.
FWIW without him we probably would have struggled to even make top 5-6 maybe even top 8.
 

Scotland

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You guys are going off the draft value index.

Everybody knows that the value of draft picks aren't scaled to their points index.

We gave up 13, 14, 24, 31.

Not a single top 10 pick.

In 2019 Kelly was easily worth the same as Treloar, Shiel, Beams in 2014. Clubs all gave up 2 top 10 picks for those players.

Kelly was and is worth 2 top 10 picks. We didn't have them.

We didn't have a single top ten pick. We could have either tried to package 14/24/31 in to the top 10 and handed that over + our future first, or just hand over the picks to Geelong so they can try and get a top 10 pick out of it.
I don't really care about the points. They're like the pirates' code, more like guidelines really.

None of those players were traded for "two top 10 picks". Shiel and a future second was pick 9 and a future first. Treloar and 28 for pick 7 and a future first. Beams was traded before future pick trades were a thing. Eyebrows were raised when we traded our future first to Gold Coast and it ended up being pick 22. But we didn't trade 22 and 50 for 21, 26, 37 and 25. We traded a future first knowing it could be anywhere from 1-18 (1-25 in reality).

If we only offer pick 14 and a future first does Kelly get traded to Freo? Go to a draft? Re-sign? Doubt it. Two firsts was more than fair in the circumstances. And we just threw in two more usable picks because we are nice guys.
 

salo

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Looks like he joins only Gaff, Sheppard, Ryan, Barrass, and Darling to play all 18 games in 2020.


#1 for Tackles
#1 for inside 50's
#1 for goal assists
#1 for Metres Gained

#2 for Disposals
#3 for Clearances
#3 for Score involvements
#3 for contested possessions


#1 for Clangers 😐
#1 for Turnovers :huh:
They're interesting stats and hard to argue with but you also have to acknowledge the games Yeo, Redden and Shuey missed (while all having sub-par years themselves).

According to the eyeball test Kelly had a fairly underwhelming influence on a lot of games. I think that was mostly due to the expectations most of us had. Remember he was in Brownlow conversations a year ago. (It will be interesting to see how he polls in 2020.)

Anyway, I'm confident he will get going next year.
 

Scotland

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Kelly at Geelong: 48 games, 48 goals
Kelly at West Coast: 18 games, 5 goals

Stats are down across the board so I don't really care if he gets 20 touches and 4 clearances compared to 25 and 5 or 6, but goal a game mids are few and far between. He only had 9 shots at goal for the year compared to 82 over the last two years. With Shuey and Yeo missing games we needed him in the centre but he wasn't our #1 clearance winner. I hope we don't take the goalkicking aspect out of his game. Our #1 mid last year was Sheed with 16 goals in 24 games, 2018 was Yeo with 14 in 25. We haven't had a mid hit the scoreboard since Shuey was a goal a game mid in 2015. We have been blessed with a potent forward line but LeCras is gone, Kennedy will soon be gone, Rioli is in limbo... good to have other avenues.
 

navi_

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I don't when he's behind Dangerfield, Selwood and Ablett in the pecking order, ergo why he was free'd up to finish so high in the Brownlow.

He certainly wasn't the 2nd best player in the AFL in 2019. Others were tagged freeing him up :shrug:
TK was only behind dangerfield in that list of players. Selwood was out on a wing in 2019 and ablett was at hf with burgoyne-esque stints in the middle if they needed a lift. big reason menegola lifted this year was selwood went back inside and menegola back to the wing.
 

frenchconnection

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Kelly struggled with the tag on Saturday but let's be honest - Shuey and Reddog both had a nightmare. It's the risk of taking in underdone players but I should expect in the absence of injury that Shuey and Redden would have been far more effective. That might have eased the pressure on Tim or at least seen us exploit other opportunities better.

I'm with Simmo on this one - TK is a 5-6 year player for us. Let's judge him at the end of it.
What amazed me was why Simmo didn't put a tag on Greenwood - ie put a tagger on the tagger - this is what Woosh did when players attempted to tag Judd - this is where Rowan Jones came into his own and was utilised and I can remember Judd saying that Jones would be the first player that he would pick if he had been the selector - for this reason I would think.
 

squashface

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What amazed me was why Simmo didn't put a tag on Greenwood - ie put a tagger on the tagger - this is what Woosh did when players attempted to tag Judd - this is where Rowan Jones came into his own and was utilised and I can remember Judd saying that Jones would be the first player that he would pick if he had been the selector - for this reason I would think.
I did notice a few times that Shuey tried to get in Greenwood's way to help TK out but it didn't happen nearly enough to be a tactical move, probably more just Shuey trying to help out
 

JohnW

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I did notice a few times that Shuey tried to get in Greenwood's way to help TK out but it didn't happen nearly enough to be a tactical move, probably more just Shuey trying to help out
Perhaps he should of won the god damn ball and forced greenwood to be moved onto him.

I really think Shuey was way below expectation in the game. Perhaps he was trying to do too much team stuff which took away from his own game. Which as a net result hurt us bad. I also dont like the complaining that I see from him and Gov.
 

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