Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[Mudeo]

Pendlebury/Cloke combo for me. Looking at the remaining games Cloke has a lot of easy games.

Cloke
GC
Ess
Port
St.k
BL
Fre
Gee

Definitely value
If he can kick straight i think he can beat Franklin.

I was going to do a write about the players that are on contention for the Brownlow and there remaining games. Will be having a go at Priddis tho definitely overs at the moment

 

[Better_Than_You]

round 1 - 2 votes
round 2 - 3 votes
round 4 - possible 1 vote
round 5 - 3 votes
round 9 - 2 votes
round 10 - 3 votes
round 11 - 3 votes
round 12 - 1 vote
round 14 - possible 1 vote
round 15 - possible 1 vote
round 16 - 1 vote
round 17 - 3 votes

My Pendlebury votes are as follows:

Round 1 - 2 votes
Round 2 - 3 votes
Round 5 - 3 votes
Round 9 - 1 vote
Round 10 - 2 votes
Round 11 - 3 votes
Round 15 - 1 vote
Round 16 - 2 votes
Round 17 - 3 votes

I have him on 20, 4 behind Judd but after reviewing my leaderboard I can almost guarantee that I have pumped a few players up a bit too much

Happy to PM my spreadsheet or discuss more if keen

 

[Better_Than_You]

Pendlebury/Cloke combo for me. Looking at the remaining games Cloke has a lot of easy games.

Cloke
GC
Ess
Port
St.k
BL
Fre
Gee

Definitely value
If he can kick straight i think he can beat Franklin.

I was going to do a write about the players that are on contention for the Brownlow and there remaining games. Will be having a go at Priddis tho definitely overs at the moment

Interested to see your write up mate, I might do the same.

Based on my count I can see the winner coming from (probably) Judd, Murphy or Pendlebury, or (very unlikely) Ablett, Boyd and Priddis - Mitchell and Selwood could also poll most votes or be right up there despite their suspensions.

 

[Mudeo]

Interested to see your write up mate, I might do the same.

Based on my count I can see the winner coming from (probably) Judd, Murphy or Pendlebury, or (very unlikely) Ablett, Boyd and Priddis - Mitchell and Selwood could also poll most votes or be right up there despite their suspensions.

But every time i go to do the write up it seems a little pointless because if they all play to their potential they could all get the 3 votes to many variables involved when predicting the rest of the games but i might give it a go anyway seeing as i havent been able to do votes this year. If Pendlebury doesnt get rested he will win easily imo, could get 3-4 vote getting games by the end of the season.

But if Priddis plays well this week his price gets halved and the value is gone. He did show how well he could poll last with his team winning minimal games.

 

[char]

round 1 - 2 votes
round 2 - 3 votes
round 4 - possible 1 vote
round 5 - 3 votes
round 9 - 2 votes
round 10 - 3 votes
round 11 - 3 votes
round 12 - 1 vote
round 14 - possible 1 vote
round 15 - possible 1 vote
round 16 - 1 vote
round 17 - 3 votes

I'll throw mine in too :

Round 2 - 3
Round 5 - 3
Round 9 - 1
Round 10 - 2
Round 11 - 3
Round 15 - 1
Round 16 - 2
Round 17 - 3

With maybes in round 4, 14 and 15.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I have Murphy so high!:

Pendlebury 17 (17)
Judd 15.75 (16)
Murphy 20 (24)

Would be pretty hard to see one of these guys not winning. Judd is no value, I think the other 2 are.

Not sure I'd be getting too heavily involved in the Coleman medal market, it seems pretty fickle.

I don't think you have Murphy too high at all. You have to be careful if you start thinking that way because you might find yourself giving him 1's instead of 2's in the coming weeks. Don't doubt yourself thats when things start to unravel

 

[mdc]

Posted in another thread, but probably worth posting here for those looking at coaches votes as a guide:

If anyone cares, I did a linear regression of total Coaches Votes vs. both wins and %, and found the following:

Coaches votes vs. Wins
Polling more than expected
Carlton (significantly more)
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Polling less than expected
Geelong (significantly less)
Port Adelaide (significantly less)
St. Kilda (significantly less)

Coaches votes vs. Percentage
Polling more than expected
Carlton
Fremantle (significantly more)
Hawthorn
West Coast
Polling less than expected
Adelaide
Collingwood (significantly less)
Port Adelaide (significantly less)
St. Kilda

Conclusions we might draw from this:
- Ratten & Clarkson are both homers
- Primus hates his own team
- Lyon's a tough marker

 

[KardiniaPark]

The Coaches votes have less than zero impact on the Brownlow. If you reference it in any way you will find yourself on completely the wrong track.