Can we Afford both De Goey and Grundy and Moore

Finnishpie

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So, whether we can afford all three depends on several factors:

1. Whether any of them demands their market value -- i.e. around $1 million.
2. How much cap space we have open up by retirements/front ended contracts (i.e. Wells, Varcoe, Reid, Goldsack, Greenwood etc).
3. Who else we could trade, i.e., are there mid-range, upper-range players we can trade out? This is the interesting discussion, I'd say. The thing about this path is that we'd need to shed a couple of players, I'd think, and they'd need to be best 22. That might include: Philips, Thomas, Elliot (which would be sad), Langdon, Roughead, Howe, Maynard, Hoskin-Elliot, Aish, etc.

To keep all three, I suspect all the above factors need to come into play.
 

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jackcass

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So, whether we can afford all three depends on several factors:

1. Whether any of them demands their market value -- i.e. around $1 million.
2. How much cap space we have open up by retirements/front ended contracts (i.e. Wells, Varcoe, Reid, Goldsack, Greenwood etc).
3. Who else we could trade, i.e., are there mid-range, upper-range players we can trade out? This is the interesting discussion, I'd say. The thing about this path is that we'd need to shed a couple of players, I'd think, and they'd need to be best 22. That might include: Philips, Thomas, Elliot (which would be sad), Langdon, Roughead, Howe, Maynard, Hoskin-Elliot, Aish, etc.

To keep all three, I suspect all the above factors need to come into play.
Overall, player salaries are generally bell curved with a degree of plateauing for those who have extended periods of excellence (ie: Pendles). So essentially, Ned Guy needs to be able to forecast and map out those bell curves to fit 44 players into the squad every year and into the foreseeable contract periods. We have a number of senior players who are definitely on the downward slide of that bell curve, others at or about their peak, and others are on the accent. How does that influence who we pay what and when (sounds like an Abbott & Costello baseball game)?

Grundy is a couple of years older than JDG and Moore. What impact will that have on how we can structure payments? How can we structure (for the sake of the discussion) $5M over 5 years? Does the player want and/or expect 5x $1M or can we look at $800k, $900k, $1.1m, $1.1m, $1m. Can we mix and match how we deliver that to each of the 3 players to allow for no more than $3m (for arguments sake) in any given year going to them? Can we structure it to take advantage of future known/projected TPP growth (TPP increases of 1.2%, 1.3%, 2%, 2%, 2% built into the CBA 2018 - 2022)?

Do the 3 players think they're worth $1m or more now or in 2020 or is it a pay level they think they'll be worth when they're at their peak? Is that influenced by offers they receive from other clubs?

There was a statistical breakdown of 2018 player salaries from the AFL posted the other day (CBF looking) that suggested that there was on average 8.3 (from memory) players at every club earning $500k+. Who are the players at Collingwood who deserve to be on $500k+ in 2020 and beyond? Will Pendles and Sidey still be in that group or have their restructured extended contracts dropped them into the next cohort down? Ditto Beams, Treloar, Adams?

The TPP will grow by about $1.1m over the life of the current CBA. How much of that will be available to factor into the salary packages of top end players? How much of it is specifically targeted at the lower end of the player payment spectrum?

It's a vexed question, especially when we're largely going off guess work.
 

sr36

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I don’t know why everyone is so concerned about players who’s contracts don’t expire until the end of next season!

Let’s try and win a flag first, that will help keep them together if they care about long term success. Of course another failure could see them more likely to leave as they realise we just aren’t good enough
If that's anyone of our player's mindset, I'd be comfortable with them leaving.
 
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I don’t know why everyone is so concerned about players who’s contracts don’t expire until the end of next season!
Let’s try and win a flag first, that will help keep them together if they care about long term success.
For a moment I thought your account had been hacked.
Of course another failure could see them more likely to leave as they realise we just aren’t good enough
Then I realised.
 

eddiesmith

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If that's anyone of our player's mindset, I'd be comfortable with them leaving.
Maybe I could have worded it better, but really a players time in the game is short lived, you can either maximise what you make out of the game or take cuts to taste the ultimate success. If the team isn't successful and the window is short, why would they take a pay cut to stay together?
 

TradeDraft

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Maybe I could have worded it better, but really a players time in the game is short lived, you can either maximise what you make out of the game or take cuts to taste the ultimate success. If the team isn't successful and the window is short, why would they take a pay cut to stay together?
Because the Core Group is still Rather Young.

IF that was the Case you be seeing a lot more Player Movement and Players playing for more then 2 Teams in there Career's
 

Bard

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Pendlebury's form has picked up since I made these comments with his last month better though his tackling and the defensive side to his game has seen some regression this year.

Adams is a good mid but has been good rather than great when available. He needs to string more games together before his season can really be judged.

Jack Crisp has had a good month but isn't quite on the elite level he was last year.

Sidebottom over the past month is another who has improved since his slow start to the season but Whitfield rather than Sidebottom is clearly the best wingman in the league. Whitfield is a top ten player in the competition on form. Sidebottom I while I had him in that conversation last year isn't having that same special season and has regressed from his once in a career level season he enjoyed in 2018.

Josh Thomas on form I don't feel should be holding his spot. No more than 18 disposals in a game, averaging less than two tackles per game and only the 10 goals from 9 games.

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While a the vast majority of players on the list have not performed to 2018 levels. Brodie Grundy is maintaining along with De Goey and Stephenson. Moore is healthy and Elliott has been available. Treloar has been a little better. Ben Reid is playing an excellent brand of footy and is clearly able to play which wasn't clear last year.

So as with any season, just as there are negatives, there are also positives.



Might sound like a lot. But Adelaide convincingly win that deal. Grundy is the best in the competition.

Pick 1 this year is nice and I'd use it on Noah Anderson (think De Goey with better midfield capabilities). The 2020 pick could become something and is a nice liquid asset and O'Brien is a serviceablish ruckman with his mobility.

Brodie Grundy is the reason Collingwood is relevant. Lose him and Collingwood are lucky to finish inside the top 8 if you replace him with O'Brien. That's not disrespecting O'Brien, but Grundy is one of two great ruckmen in the competition with everyone else is several tiers below with probably Rowan Marshall that next best among a crowded pack. Collingwood's midfield despite Grundy's brilliance has gone from good on paper to overrated with Pendlebury at 29th the only mid inside the top 30 for clearances at the club as a much weaker clearance/centre clearance team than should be the case.
Ah, perhaps I should have checked the date of your post :)

The one I'm really concerned about (like many I assume) is Sier. It's interesting to see that per disposal Beams has had the third most links to a scoring shot out of all midfielders this season (a touch under 30%). Overall, aside from a number of injuries, we're in a far more advanced spot than we were last year. The real question is will we be able to find another gear to go to come finals.
 
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