Carlton are the one to watch out for - They can win The Premiership

[Drought Break]

Alright a few things to work through here:

I brought up 2021 because Carlton by far led in goals/scores from frees. Considering the free kick counts to both your key forwards are relatively stable, it's not a reach to assume that they're still scoring pretty heavily from frees compared to other teams. I haven't analyzed any other season because it's a lot of work. Yes Curnow only played a few games that year. My gut feel is that the number might've increased since he's been back.

Curnow not in the top 10 in the league for frees for. He's sitting equal 17th. Every player above him is either a ruck or inside midfielder. The next key forward after him is Harry McKay in 26th, and then Jesse Hogan in 38th.

I'm not stating this due to a Carlton hatred, it's more bemusement that he and McKay get looked after far more than other key forwards in the league. I could also say that your defense of them is completely subjective, so it goes both ways.

The booing - not really irrelevant. Just shows the stupidity of supporters thinking their team gets ripped off. Analyzing free kick stats over the past 8 seasons, there's only two teams that should feel aggrieved by the umpiring: Richmond and GWS.

On the video, there's at least a dozen there that are outright wrong or extremely soft (i.e very very few other key forwards would receive these frees). Also see how much he throws his arms out and appeals to the umps.

Yeh I love that video they put up. Some of the softest frees you would ever see. Compare that with Mihocheck for eg

Last year Charles came 9th in frees for while over 180th in disposals. Similar tracking this year with his 5 last night

 

[Thrawn]

I watched the video of Curnows 2023 frees and there's a dozen or so that are dubious as all hell. I've also called out the Kings (more Max than Ben), and Larkey who are also very looked after. The difference is that Curnow's and McKay's free kick stats are so much more skewed than any of the other premier key forwards over the last few years (Riewoldt, Lynch, Cameron, Hawkins). So either they've both revolutionised forward craft, or they play for frees.

I've never said frees have to be equal. But when a team or player continually gets a positive differential, then clearly they're making sure that any contact is being noticed.

But you don't explain which ones specifically or why, just give vague responses.

Skewed or not, it doesn't matter! What matters is if the free kick is actually justified! Curnow is a very mobile player, and more often than not defenders will try to stop his run to the ball by holding his arms, grappling him, etc. Some do it very well and can disguise it from the umpires, other times they look very blatant and well...

Waffling on about the amount of free kicks Curnow gets means nothing unless you can individually rate them, and come up with a percentage of how many were justified, and how many were charities. If you can't do that, then it's pointless arguing about it.

 

[carlton_99]

Yeh I love that video they put up. Some of the softest frees you would ever see. Compare that with Mihocheck for eg

Last year Charles came 9th in frees for while over 180th in disposals. Similar tracking this year with his 5 last night

What do disposals have to do with free kicks for key forwards - Curnow isn't winning his free kicks off contested ball (i.e., from being tackled). It's largely aerial contests many of which are one-on-one

 

[Mister Dog]

Blues are in the middle of a 6 week heavy load training block. Believed to be the heaviest and most intense block ever implemented by High Performance director Andrew Russell in his history of footy.

Russell has the runs on the board so we can expect the Blues to be cherry ripe in September.

 

[Drought Break]

What's disposals have to do with free kicks for key forwards - Curnow isn't winning his free kicks off contested ball (i.e., from being tackled). It's largely aerial contests many of which are one-on-one

Pretty obvious I would have thought. You get the ball on average 3 times the ratio of another player you would think you would have more of a chance of getting more frees. That’s why midfielders and rucks generally get more frees. Involved way more.

Unless your Charles of course

 

[carlton_99]

Pretty obvious I would have thought. You get the ball on average 3 times the ratio of another player you would think you would have more of a chance of getting more frees. That’s why midfielders and rucks generally get more frees. Involved way more.

Unless your Charles of course

Midfielders get different types of free kicks that correlate with having more of the ball or being around the ball more like HTB, high tackles, push in the backs in tackles etc. KPFs are largely getting their frees in aerial contests i50 (holds/blocks/chopping arms/pushes in back) which do not relate to disposals.

You can have 10 disposals but be involved in 40 aerial contests i50 per game. Each of those is a free kick opportunity which is in no way reflected by the number of disposals you have.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

You can set your clocks to Carlton and Essendon sh#tting the bed at this time of year.

 

[Yoda_]

Watched the replay this morning and it was a train wreck. Left for to few again and again. The magic in the front half was jus not there and whilst the defence held firm, defence itself probably needs to be the number one priority from the back 6. Often caught out of position trying to peel off or be a kick ahead.

Not the end of the world but giving up a 5 goal lead is pretty poor or so I was told a week ago

 

[Yoda_]

You can set your clocks to Carlton and Essendon sh#tting the bed at this time of year.

we've still got Adrian Dodoro winning rate week on the bingo card too

 

[sup3rfish]

Defenders panicking and infringing is a more logical conclusion than "da umpires are in on it, it's a conspiracy".

Occam's razor here. The rest is just white noise.

nah your right- defenders panic and infringe a lot more with Harry and Charlie compared to every other key forwards in the league. Just shows how good they are.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Blues are in the middle of a 6 week heavy load training block. Believed to be the heaviest and most intense block ever implemented by High Performance director Andrew Russell in his history of footy.

Russell has the runs on the board so we can expect the Blues to be cherry ripe in September.

4 bottom 8 sides to round out the season. 2nd spot guaranteed

 

[bzparkes]

Blues are in the middle of a 6 week heavy load training block. Believed to be the heaviest and most intense block ever implemented by High Performance director Andrew Russell in his history of footy.

Russell has the runs on the board so we can expect the Blues to be cherry ripe in September.

Might want to worry about having top 4 sewn up before jumping the gun on that one...

 

[bradfisher14]

Still second. Don't play anyone in the 8 for the rest of the season.

Still top 4 certainties

Have you seen us play recently?

 

[bradfisher14]

Blues are in the middle of a 6 week heavy load training block. Believed to be the heaviest and most intense block ever implemented by High Performance director Andrew Russell in his history of footy.

Russell has the runs on the board so we can expect the Blues to be cherry ripe in September.

This has been repeatedly and emphatically refuted by the most reliable ITKs on the Carlton board.

 

[Mister Dog]

This has been repeatedly and emphatically refuted by the most reliable ITKs on the Carlton board.

So some posters on BF know more than Russell saying so on Triple M pre game himself?

 

[bradfisher14]

So some posters on BF know more than Russell saying so on Triple M pre game himself?

Do you have a link to the interview?

 

[voorhees]

Watched the replay this morning and it was a train wreck. Left for to few again and again. The magic in the front half was jus not there and whilst the defence held firm, defence itself probably needs to be the number one priority from the back 6. Often caught out of position trying to peel off or be a kick ahead.

Not the end of the world but giving up a 5 goal lead is pretty poor or so I was told a week ago

blues are in a good place.. few tweeks and turns building up to the finals.
but will still go deep into september

 

[Thrawn]

Blues are in the middle of a 6 week heavy load training block. Believed to be the heaviest and most intense block ever implemented by High Performance director Andrew Russell in his history of footy.

Russell has the runs on the board so we can expect the Blues to be cherry ripe in September.

Is this verifiable or are you just being sarcastic?

 

[Yoda_]

blues are in a good place.. few tweeks and turns building up to the finals.
but will still go deep into september

the top end talent is as good as any which is why they should never be discounted. The imbalance in the list is the biggest worry about sanding up on the big stages

 

[#1JohnHuttonFan]

Blues are in the middle of a 6 week heavy load training block. Believed to be the heaviest and most intense block ever implemented by High Performance director Andrew Russell in his history of footy.

Russell has the runs on the board so we can expect the Blues to be cherry ripe in September.

Yep ok.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NetworkNerd]

Have you seen us play recently?

Yes but the Blues run home from here is the easiest of any of the finals candidates. 4 bottom 8 sides.

Geelong only have 1/5 against a top 10 side so they will be up there too.

Port have 3 top 10 sides along with a showdown so they won't go past you. Freo have 4 top 10 sides along with a derby.

So pretty much impossible for Carlton to finish below 3rd

 

[bourbons]

Blues are in the middle of a 6 week heavy load training block. Believed to be the heaviest and most intense block ever implemented by High Performance director Andrew Russell in his history of footy.

Russell has the runs on the board so we can expect the Blues to be cherry ripe in September.

Ha, would consider cutting the training block short or there might not be a September at this rate

 

[bradfisher14]

Yes but the Blues run home from here is the easiest of any of the finals candidates. 4 bottom 8 sides.

Geelong only have 1/5 against a top 10 side so they will be up there too.

Port have 3 top 10 sides along with a showdown so they won't go past you. Freo have 4 top 10 sides along with a derby.

So pretty much impossible for Carlton to finish below 3rd

On paper, definitely. But the way we're playing at the moment gives me zero confidence that we can pull it off. Pies is always a 50-50 game for us at best no matter where each team is on the ladder. Hawks are playing the best footy in the comp. Eagles at home are dangerous but we should win. Saints at Marvel is never easy for us.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

The reason Curnow gets his fair share of frees is because he gets isolated vs spuds on one one more than any other Key Forward in the game by a long long way. Can't blame that on him or some sort of conspiracy re the umps. Best forward in the game in the most contests by a mile gets the most free kicks... I'm sure the brains trust can figure that out

 

[100action]

It never went.

confirmed