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List Mgmt. Carlton's 2019 Draft Thread

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At the time Elvis Presley died in 1977, he had 150 impersonators in the US. According to calculations in a US Sunday newspaper in 2005, there were 85,000. That meant that one in every 3,400 Americans at that time was an Elvis impersonator. If Elvis impersonators continued multiplying at the same rate, they would have accounted for a third of the world’s population by 2019.

So statistically, one in every three posters here is an Elvis impersonator....come on, confess up all you Elvis's!!!


....this place is in bad need of a good rumour
Hunka hunka burning data
 
Will Collingwood take Riccardi at their first pick? Is he a chance for us at pick 43?
I reckon the answer is 'yes' and 'no'.
That's why I wouldn't mind trading with GCS or Lions or Cats....or even Port...to get two picks inside the top 30.
Pickett and Riccardi would be a couple of handy pick ups imo, and both would be gettable.
 

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At the time Elvis Presley died in 1977, he had 150 impersonators in the US. According to calculations in a US Sunday newspaper in 2005, there were 85,000. That meant that one in every 3,400 Americans at that time was an Elvis impersonator. If Elvis impersonators continued multiplying at the same rate, they would have accounted for a third of the world’s population by 2019.

So statistically, one in every three posters here is an Elvis impersonator....come on, confess up all you Elvis's!!!


....this place is in bad need of a good rumour
Moody Blue would have to be one.
 
So statistically, one in every three posters here is an Elvis impersonator....come on, confess up all you Elvis's!!!

A little less conversation, a little more bluemour pls.
 
I am interested in some predictions of undervalued or bargain prospects.

I was going to ask the board for suggestions before TerryWallet read my mind with one of his posts (see below, moved from Pick 9 thread)



So, I put this out to the board. Who are your player crushes? Who do you think will go top 10 but could be the best player in the draft? Which are the players that you don't think are getting the love and attention they deserve? What players do you think will slide and would be worth trading into the draft to select?

Arr0w - I know you love Rivers as an elite prospect but is generally rated in the 15-20 range. Got any more?

Paging LemmingMaster, Eiffel 65, Coona Blues, Jimmae, mediumsizered, The Smoking Gun and any other keen draft watchers I've missed.
As is my way, I posted most of my thoughts earlier in post #1054. Will reiterate some here and add a couple more thoughts. Will be lengthy.

Pre injury, I rated Kemp (along with Rowell) as the best prospect in the up coming draft. So much to like size, pace, skills and the ability to play virtually anywhere. Just projects as the epitome of the modern day footballer. Where his ACL leaves him in rankings will be a club by club thing. Would have no objection if we take the gamble and make him a Blue if he slides.

What we need most to add to our already spectacular group of youngsters is pace, skill and precision by foot. The epitome of this in the top end of the draft is undoubtedly Dylan Stephens. Currently slightly built, but performed admirably at SANFL level against mature bodies regardless. Surely has to be high on our wish list. Oh, and a Blues supporter FWIW. Two way runner, would immediately join Windows' "Oxygen brothers".

I have Kysaiah "Kossie" Pickett on my wish list. The diminutive forward has all of the attributes one looks for in a small forward. Speed, athleticism, skill and anticipation, yet he has a hard edge and want to adopt the team first approach. While doubting the chance of him reaching us with our current picks, I would support some imaginative pick swapping to get him to Ikon Park. I tend to not buy into the hype too readily attached to some indigenous youngsters with a bit of flair, but this kid stands up to any scrutiny in my book. Similarly the more highly rated Liam Henry, who is as much mid as forward, but is unfortunately tied to the Freo NGA, and won't be passed up.

Should we not have access to Stephens or Kemp, I see Deven Robertson as a failsafe high end midfielder. The Larke medallist at the U18 championship broke Walshy's disposal records, so gets plenty of it, particularly inside. A tackling machine, with the only knock being average disposal by foot. Plenty of highly effective inside mids have sub par disposal. I simply rate him a better prospect than other possible sliders like Ash and even possibly Sarong. For the record, I see Flanders as a very promising forward, just doesn't do it for me as a midfielder and accordingly don't rate him as highly as others.

It would seem that Luke Jackson is going to command some interest in the top 10. A star ruck at the lower level, perhaps marginally undersized, although already taller than Mumford and Ryder. Would not be distraught if we were to pick him, however I like DeKoning and we are said to have plenty of faith in his trajectory. Pittonet also promising and alleviates any urgent need to reach for a ruck at the top end, regardless of how well he projects. (I still believe we will have Henry Walsh on the radar next year, who will be slow burn), fitting better in to our list progression than an athlete deemed to be almost ready to go.

Your post asked for my personal likes, so I will continue from here with them......

Cooper Stephens is my big watch. First came to my attention as an underager, when someone mentioned that our recruiters were watching him closely. At that time didn't have the faintest who he was, so went looking and have watched since. The profiles will tell you he has a big body and plays inside, with good leadership and a penetrating kick. Broken leg early in the season, with no playing time late, but tested brilliantly at the combine. Is his natural athleticism and endurance at a high level, or does he want it that much to build up after a long term injury, or of course both.

Similarly Sam Philp came to my attention through the season. Overlooked for the Metro team, but just kept racking them up through the year, with the bulk of his possession at the coal face, doing the grunt work. Good size, and again tested brilliantly at the combine, particularly in the area of speed. Great attribute for an inside player, suggesting to me, plenty of scope to become an effective hybrid inside/outside type. Could be a reach and go in the second round or drift further on his current profile. Shapes as a great value pick.

Late first found is the likely spot for Trent Rivers, but I have a big watch on him. Just showed so much scope, inside, outside, skillful, aggressive, can play virtually anywhere other than KPP/ruck, and even then may be effective as an undersized 3rd tall type. Perhaps vies for the title of the player with the greatest "hidden" ceiling. Can see why Arrow is so keen.

My watch list has Elijah Taylor, x factor medium forward from the west and Tom's "little" brother Sam De Koning who will ultimately be a valuable asset on an AFL list in a few years. Still growing like his brother, so likely to reach 204cm(ish) so very tall KPD who could project to be a ruck down the track.. Brock Smith just projects as the consummate professional defender. Still slight, but at 188cm likely to play that jack of all trades defender. Lock down and some quality rebounding. Good value if he makes it to our current third pick. Darcy Casar small/medium utility, back forward and midfield credentials through his junior career, projects as a defender first to me. Flynn Perez missed the season with a dreaded ACL, but was projected as a high pick as a quality medium defender and may be worth a gamble. I have a little watch on Hugo Ralph-Smith as an athletic outside type as well.

Clearly small forward is a position of need, so I will highlight Jack Mahony as a small midfielder/forward with good numbers and great disposal. A couple of reports have him in the same discussion as Cody Weightman for class and potential. Under the radar, may be a great get if the preferred targets are unavailable with our second and third picks. (I am "concerned" that Sam Gray remains unsigned, personally a bit reluctant to pick up such a mature DFA on top of Eddie, draft please SOS). The last value small forward I will mention is Josh D'Intinasante. Despite consecutive B&F awards as a mid in his underage year and more time forward last season, he is largely unheralded. Just a genuine footballer seemingly devoid of wow factor, but gets the job done. Again if we miss out higher, I would advocate using a late pick.

Like my previous post, I would suggest Sam Fisher and Frank Anderson would not be out of place on our list, but are likely to be overlooked with our plethora of young talent suggesting no real need for mature depth midfield types. Again Kye Quirk, grandson of Carlton "legend" Bryan is my late/rookie "bolter". Played a handful of Northern Blues games last season, and to me immediately outplayed the likes of senior listed Schumacher and Cottrell (who I like). Hard at it mix of athleticism and skills, with an historic connection. That last rookie spot looks bloody attractive for him.

It would not be a popular opinion as most posters want to trade for mature players, but I would happily trade our 2020 first out for two picks in the 20-30 range in this draft. There is enough on offer in that range to grab two quality players, with Pickett IMO offering a great possibility as our frontline small forward for a decade or more. I firmly believe we have enough front line talent going forward, and would have greater concern with filling gaps than adding perceived elite trades.

Lengthy post, but time on my hands and answering a request. Those looking for content will read, the more casual posters may not.
 
btdg does bring up a valid point worth considering.

Our ability to select players with our later round picks has not been very successful.

This could be a combination of factors.
1. We have drafted a lot of higher draft picks than most clubs.
2. We have traded in a lot of newer players

No doubt the club will be looking to improve their success rate across all draft positions. Hopefully with Carlton slowly gaining less access to higher draft picks, we will really need to refine our drafting techniques.
 
btdg does bring up a valid point worth considering.

Our ability to select players with our later round picks has not been very successful.

This could be a combination of factors.
1. We have drafted a lot of higher draft picks than most clubs.
2. We have traded in a lot of newer players

No doubt the club will be looking to improve their success rate across all draft positions. Hopefully with Carlton slowly gaining less access to higher draft picks, we will really need to refine our drafting techniques.
I think now that we have a decent core group we will start using our later picks for specific needs rather than just going for project types or mature top ups as we have been, this should result in us spending a bit more time considering our later picks more carefully to fill the specific holes on our list. If you look at teams like Hawthorn and Geelong who only had later picks to use in recent times they where able to devote more time to considering and fine tuning those picks thereby getting a few more wins with those picks than other clubs with a plethora of earlier picks, which if we look back to a more successful time we also had a lot of success with our later picks, even under the old recruiting team, Jacobs, Betts, Jamison, Duigan, Garlett, the list goes on, but you get my point.
 
Here’s a fun stat: unless I’ve missed someone, we haven’t had a (non F/S) player taken past pick 30 in the draft or in the rookie draft reach 50 games for the club since the 2011 draft.

The closest current player is Tom Williamson on 17 games. The most games played by a player taken in that range of the draft in 2019 was 3 by Cameron Polson. I’d wager we don’t currently have a late draft pick or rookie pick who will get to 50 games on the list

In contrast, in the same time period Richmond had 7 players taken in that region of the draft reach 50 games. 14 players played in more than 7 matches this year, and 7 of those played in their premiership team.

Whatever we do with pick 9, our draft begins with our next pick. Quite simply, we won’t get out of the bottom half of the ladder unless we stop wasting list spots and frittering away draft assets

Richmond's rebuild started in 2010 and finished at the 2016 recruitment period.

Rookie players to reach 50+ games:
2013 - Anthony Miles (61)
2014 - Jayden Short (71), Jason Castagna (76), Kane Lambert (94)

Picks after 50 to reach 50+ Games:
2013 - Sam Lloyd (57)
2015 - Nathan Broad (54)

Our rebuild started in 2015 and will hopefully end in a similar timeframe, around 2021. We're about to go through our 5th recruitment period. Richmond only started to find players late in the draft around their 5th period (2014 draft).

For all the credit Richmond get for being good at picking talent with late round selections, and they should because they have been good, they didn't nail late round selections until very late in their rebuild.

We all need to be reminded of this and we need to remember that we are only just coming into the period now where Richmond started to draft good players with late and rookie selections.

I think this is the case with a lot of rebuilding clubs. Clubs get to the end of their rebuild and they have nailed down the types of players who go typically early and need to be recruited early (talls, inside mids, defence) but are hard to find late and this makes it appear they aren't doing well with later picks. Clubs later in their rebuild can then focus more on types who typically go later (small forwards, outside players, role playing defenders) which equates to a higher hit rate of late round selections. They can also afford to focus on young players late in the draft as they have less of a need for salary dumps and short term mature bodies to keep list balance (yes Richmond used these sorts too). Not only this, you get to the end of a rebuild you should have maturity and culture at your club which enables you to take risks on players who's personality or off field issues raise a red flag.

For all the criticism we get and all the praise Richmond get, if you compare the late round drafting of the two clubs at the same stage of their rebuild you will see a very very similar strike rate.

We're at a stage now where we don't need to focus as much on types of players who you are less likely to find late in the draft (talls, quality mids etc). We're hopefully able to take in players who have question marks about their personality and off field stuff. We're at a stage now where we are focusing on the types of players typically picked up late in the draft. We also don't need to focus on salary dumps and short term mature bodies so much. I think factoring this all in, we will see more hits come in later in the draft.

Fair chance the next few years we will see us focus on smaller, quicker players later in the draft and this will equate to higher hit rates. Particularly as they will be coming into a competitive team which has good development people. But it's definitely an area where we need to improve and IMO we will.

We need to remember Richmond were heavily criticised nearly all they way up to winning the 2017 flag and it won't be any different for us.
 

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Our rebuild started in 2015 and will hopefully end in a similar timeframe, around 2021. We're about to go through our 5th recruitment period. Richmond only started to find players late in the draft around their 5th period (2014 draft).

Technically it's easier to get games in a poor side (less competition for spots) but in reality most players get chewed up and spat out. It's hard to play at a high level when you're a pick 75, needing time to develop, getting thrust into a side as injury cover and you're playing in a team getting smashed by 10 goals.

You put that same kid in a top of the table side and he can play his role....with faith that the players around him have things covered. You see it all the time. Rookies going into successful sides and instantly looking like AFL players. It's not superior drafting (ok, maybe a little). To an extent, it's not even better development (although that's a key factor). It's simply that much easier to play well in a good side.

Catch 22 - the poor teams that are desperate for more talent.....are the ones where speculative talent hardly makes the cut. The best teams - the ones that don't need to nail the rookies - they're the ones that end up with hidden draft gems.

I hope that as Carlton's on-field performances improve and become more consistent......so to will our late drafting success.
 
Oscar Brownless delisted by the Cats after one year. Was for much of last year considered a top 30 selection.

They've promised him a spot if no other club picks him up, I'm wondering if it's worth having a look at him as a DFA or with a late pick.

Thoughts?

TerryWallet Arr0w LemmingMaster
 
At the time Elvis Presley died in 1977, he had 150 impersonators in the US. According to calculations in a US Sunday newspaper in 2005, there were 85,000. That meant that one in every 3,400 Americans at that time was an Elvis impersonator. If Elvis impersonators continued multiplying at the same rate, they would have accounted for a third of the world’s population by 2019.

So statistically, one in every three posters here is an Elvis impersonator....come on, confess up all you Elvis's!!!


....this place is in bad need of a good rumour
wal thenk you very merch.........
 
Oscar Brownless delisted by the Cats after one year. Was for much of last year considered a top 30 selection.

They've promised him a spot if no other club picks him up, I'm wondering if it's worth having a look at him as a DFA or with a late pick.

Thoughts?

TerryWallet Arr0w LemmingMaster

I saw not a lot in him in his U18 year to want to draft him. Think he went quite late.

I haven't seen him play since and haven't taken any notice of him since. There's always a bit o pressure on clubs to give famous names a crack for little outlay, and most probably don't make it because they probably weren't good enough in the first place.

From his U18 year, i remember him doing a few nice things, similar to say an Isaac Wareham this year. Later pick maybe, hope for the best, don't expect anything.
 
Oscar Brownless delisted by the Cats after one year. Was for much of last year considered a top 30 selection.

They've promised him a spot if no other club picks him up, I'm wondering if it's worth having a look at him as a DFA or with a late pick.

Thoughts?

TerryWallet Arr0w LemmingMaster

Surprised they cut him, needs time, but the only clear role I see him developing into is a pure inside mid role

Not sure any club would then take him as a DFA, hence I think Cats will re-draft him
 

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Technically it's easier to get games in a poor side (less competition for spots) but in reality most players get chewed up and spat out. It's hard to play at a high level when you're a pick 75, needing time to develop, getting thrust into a side as injury cover and you're playing in a team getting smashed by 10 goals.

You put that same kid in a top of the table side and he can play his role....with faith that the players around him have things covered. You see it all the time. Rookies going into successful sides and instantly looking like AFL players. It's not superior drafting (ok, maybe a little). To an extent, it's not even better development (although that's a key factor). It's simply that much easier to play well in a good side.

Catch 22 - the poor teams that are desperate for more talent.....are the ones where speculative talent hardly makes the cut. The best teams - the ones that don't need to nail the rookies - they're the ones that end up with hidden draft gems.

I hope that as Carlton's on-field performances improve and become more consistent......so to will our late drafting success.

Yeah nail on the head. We get a lot of criticism for not having small forwards even though we do, we have drafted a few over the years and typically all the better sides bring them in at the end of their rebuild anyway.

Could you imagine being an opportunistic type such as a small forward playing in a team that regularly gets beaten by 5-10 goals and starved of opportunity? They are only useful in a good side and only develop in a side which creates plenty of opportunity and we should be becoming this side from here on.

You need those core players and leaders to develop in a team. Defenders and midfielders to an extent will develop in a weak side. Tall forwards can develop in a weak side to an extent. Smaller forwards, more outside players and young raw player however have little hope and that's one of many reasons to bring them in later.

Hopefully we develop a good strong midfield that can move the ball well and win a lot of it and that will bring the rest of our team and developing young players up.
 
Surprised they cut him, needs time, but the only clear role I see him developing into is a pure inside mid role

Not sure any club would then take him as a DFA, hence I think Cats will re-draft him
They also delisted Jamaine Jones who I think might be worth having a look at for one of our rookie spots, Geelong had a lot of similar type players like Parfitt, Narkle, Cockatoo so he was probably just surplus to there requirements for small forwards, is a really good tackler and a couple of years working with Ed could really help him develop his game, have read good things regarding his work ethos and his want to succeed so think he is a pretty good option for us as a rookie.
 
Last edited:
As is my way, I posted most of my thoughts earlier in post #1054. Will reiterate some here and add a couple more thoughts. Will be lengthy.

Pre injury, I rated Kemp (along with Rowell) as the best prospect in the up coming draft. So much to like size, pace, skills and the ability to play virtually anywhere. Just projects as the epitome of the modern day footballer. Where his ACL leaves him in rankings will be a club by club thing. Would have no objection if we take the gamble and make him a Blue if he slides.

What we need most to add to our already spectacular group of youngsters is pace, skill and precision by foot. The epitome of this in the top end of the draft is undoubtedly Dylan Stephens. Currently slightly built, but performed admirably at SANFL level against mature bodies regardless. Surely has to be high on our wish list. Oh, and a Blues supporter FWIW. Two way runner, would immediately join Windows' "Oxygen brothers".

I have Kysaiah "Kossie" Pickett on my wish list. The diminutive forward has all of the attributes one looks for in a small forward. Speed, athleticism, skill and anticipation, yet he has a hard edge and want to adopt the team first approach. While doubting the chance of him reaching us with our current picks, I would support some imaginative pick swapping to get him to Ikon Park. I tend to not buy into the hype too readily attached to some indigenous youngsters with a bit of flair, but this kid stands up to any scrutiny in my book. Similarly the more highly rated Liam Henry, who is as much mid as forward, but is unfortunately tied to the Freo NGA, and won't be passed up.

Should we not have access to Stephens or Kemp, I see Deven Robertson as a failsafe high end midfielder. The Larke medallist at the U18 championship broke Walshy's disposal records, so gets plenty of it, particularly inside. A tackling machine, with the only knock being average disposal by foot. Plenty of highly effective inside mids have sub par disposal. I simply rate him a better prospect than other possible sliders like Ash and even possibly Sarong. For the record, I see Flanders as a very promising forward, just doesn't do it for me as a midfielder and accordingly don't rate him as highly as others.

It would seem that Luke Jackson is going to command some interest in the top 10. A star ruck at the lower level, perhaps marginally undersized, although already taller than Mumford and Ryder. Would not be distraught if we were to pick him, however I like DeKoning and we are said to have plenty of faith in his trajectory. Pittonet also promising and alleviates any urgent need to reach for a ruck at the top end, regardless of how well he projects. (I still believe we will have Henry Walsh on the radar next year, who will be slow burn), fitting better in to our list progression than an athlete deemed to be almost ready to go.

Your post asked for my personal likes, so I will continue from here with them......

Cooper Stephens is my big watch. First came to my attention as an underager, when someone mentioned that our recruiters were watching him closely. At that time didn't have the faintest who he was, so went looking and have watched since. The profiles will tell you he has a big body and plays inside, with good leadership and a penetrating kick. Broken leg early in the season, with no playing time late, but tested brilliantly at the combine. Is his natural athleticism and endurance at a high level, or does he want it that much to build up after a long term injury, or of course both.

Similarly Sam Philp came to my attention through the season. Overlooked for the Metro team, but just kept racking them up through the year, with the bulk of his possession at the coal face, doing the grunt work. Good size, and again tested brilliantly at the combine, particularly in the area of speed. Great attribute for an inside player, suggesting to me, plenty of scope to become an effective hybrid inside/outside type. Could be a reach and go in the second round or drift further on his current profile. Shapes as a great value pick.

Late first found is the likely spot for Trent Rivers, but I have a big watch on him. Just showed so much scope, inside, outside, skillful, aggressive, can play virtually anywhere other than KPP/ruck, and even then may be effective as an undersized 3rd tall type. Perhaps vies for the title of the player with the greatest "hidden" ceiling. Can see why Arrow is so keen.

My watch list has Elijah Taylor, x factor medium forward from the west and Tom's "little" brother Sam De Koning who will ultimately be a valuable asset on an AFL list in a few years. Still growing like his brother, so likely to reach 204cm(ish) so very tall KPD who could project to be a ruck down the track.. Brock Smith just projects as the consummate professional defender. Still slight, but at 188cm likely to play that jack of all trades defender. Lock down and some quality rebounding. Good value if he makes it to our current third pick. Darcy Casar small/medium utility, back forward and midfield credentials through his junior career, projects as a defender first to me. Flynn Perez missed the season with a dreaded ACL, but was projected as a high pick as a quality medium defender and may be worth a gamble. I have a little watch on Hugo Ralph-Smith as an athletic outside type as well.

Clearly small forward is a position of need, so I will highlight Jack Mahony as a small midfielder/forward with good numbers and great disposal. A couple of reports have him in the same discussion as Cody Weightman for class and potential. Under the radar, may be a great get if the preferred targets are unavailable with our second and third picks. (I am "concerned" that Sam Gray remains unsigned, personally a bit reluctant to pick up such a mature DFA on top of Eddie, draft please SOS). The last value small forward I will mention is Josh D'Intinasante. Despite consecutive B&F awards as a mid in his underage year and more time forward last season, he is largely unheralded. Just a genuine footballer seemingly devoid of wow factor, but gets the job done. Again if we miss out higher, I would advocate using a late pick.

Like my previous post, I would suggest Sam Fisher and Frank Anderson would not be out of place on our list, but are likely to be overlooked with our plethora of young talent suggesting no real need for mature depth midfield types. Again Kye Quirk, grandson of Carlton "legend" Bryan is my late/rookie "bolter". Played a handful of Northern Blues games last season, and to me immediately outplayed the likes of senior listed Schumacher and Cottrell (who I like). Hard at it mix of athleticism and skills, with an historic connection. That last rookie spot looks bloody attractive for him.

It would not be a popular opinion as most posters want to trade for mature players, but I would happily trade our 2020 first out for two picks in the 20-30 range in this draft. There is enough on offer in that range to grab two quality players, with Pickett IMO offering a great possibility as our frontline small forward for a decade or more. I firmly believe we have enough front line talent going forward, and would have greater concern with filling gaps than adding perceived elite trades.

Lengthy post, but time on my hands and answering a request. Those looking for content will read, the more casual posters may not.
Nice post. I think Robertson would do himself an enormous favour if he realised one thing: he hasn’t got a left foot. It’s unnerving watching him wheel onto his left knowing there’s a great chance he will helicopter it. Yet he persists. Son Bryce Gibbs got away with not kicking on his left for 10 years. It’s a nice to have for sure....but you’re so far off having it is just forget it. Makes you look a worse kick than you are.
 
I only have one question - can we draft him, please?
I reckon he goes before us FB. Soz. 9 clubs (we will drop one) arent passing on a kid who runs 2.97 for 20, 6 flat for 2km, kicks well both feet, has great awareness in traffic and a good footy brain....just because he’s a bit skinny. Not in this draft anyway. Last year sure. Not this year. Don’t see it. He doesn’t get past Freo I don’t think.
 

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List Mgmt. Carlton's 2019 Draft Thread

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