Strategy Changes: Elimination Final v Gold Coast

[Eski3]

The media are running with the fact that GC need to win by at least 5 goals to sow up 7th, but that cannot be right. Gold Coast are 0.8% behind the Hawks and as long as Essendon don't score like 85+ every goal should be work about 0.3%.

 

[Big Animal]

Poor old Fyfey only had one possession a free kick awarded by the umpire.
Maybe he's played his last game , can't afford to carry him into the finals.

yeah so i missed the game live as i was at the WAFLW GF and watched the replay instead so knew the result and could focus on what i wanted to. I watched Fyfe pretty carefully and I considered his blocking for Serong and the others around the contest and pressure was what we were missing in the first when the little guys were being taken out of the contest.

You just sound like Karl Langdon on 6PR after the game having a bigger sook about Freo's sub choice than any of the other players who just beat Bullies at Marvel . I mean does any other media talking head even discuss the sub after a game? They're clearly the 23rd most important player on that team.

 

[Wizard]

In - MJ, NOD
Out - Wags, Fyfe

NOD gets the vest, hes the perfect sub. Reality suggests that Fyfe is absolutely playing, which is fine.
So it ultimately comes down to MJ v NOD if Wags is the only out.

 

[malpaso]

Fyfe is completely cooked , not playing him is probably more motivational than playing him

Take your opportunities when they come along because no matter who you are you run out of chances sooner than you’d like

Lol at the people saying Darcy was one of our best , at best you could say he maybe had the better of the HOTA but we were very lucky English dropped a few marks he would normally take
View attachment 2406504

And how many of English's stats did he get against Jackson?

 

[Halfbaked]

How fun having some teams season done and we are still going. I like this part of footy

It does feel a tad unusual.
Whatever people say about Ross, I for one watched games in 2013, 14 and 15 expecting to win. I miss that feeling.
I think and hope this team will go on a 6 or 7 year rampage.

 

[Alfonz]

The media are running with the fact that GC need to win by at least 5 goals to sow up 7th, but that cannot be right. Gold Coast are 0.8% behind the Hawks and as long as Essendon don't score like 85+ every goal should be work about 0.3%.

I'm not sure how you came to your calculations. The number being touted is correct. It might be a bit less or more, depending on what the scores actually are ... e.g. 87-60 or 123-90 ... but a 5 goal margin is essentially correct.

 

[Spirit Level]

Please be Saturday please be Saturday please be Saturday

 

[FreoRicci]

I'm not sure how you came to your calculations. The number being touted is correct. It might be a bit less or more, depending on what the scores actually are ... e.g. 87-60 or 123-90 ... but a 5 goal margin is essentially correct.

Can’t see Essendon doing that though. If Gold Coast are serious and want to rest players, then they’ll just romp the first half and never let up.
They don’t want to be considered soft back to back games against opponents they should be beating by 50 points each time.

 

[Docker82]

The media are running with the fact that GC need to win by at least 5 goals to sow up 7th, but that cannot be right. Gold Coast are 0.8% behind the Hawks and as long as Essendon don't score like 85+ every goal should be work about 0.3%.

You're never going to get it 100% right on this if you just say a number of points tbh.

Ultimately how large the victory needs to be is dependent on how much both teams score. The higher Essendon score the more Gold Coast need to win by to get 7th.

I think the media thinks the majority of the football public don't want to do anymore than early primary school maths when watching the footy so they're making it a bit more simple. I think they're right too.

 

[Eski3]

You're never going to get it 100% right on this if you just say a number of points tbh.

Ultimately how large the victory needs to be is dependent on how much both teams score. The higher Essendon score the more Gold Coast need to win by to get 7th.

I think the media thinks the majority of the football public don't want to do anymore than early primary school maths when watching the footy so they're making it a bit more simple. I think they're right too.

I tried to work it out on the ladder predictor but it only lets you pick the margin, not each teams score. I was basing it off other games when tracking the live ladder, when one team has scored between 40-60 the other team's goals have generally been worth about 0.3%

 

[go_the_dockers]

AFL finals fixture 2025: Cats bound for Grand Final after Lions set up blockbuster Pies prelim

AFL finals fixture 2025: Cats bound for Grand Final after Lions set up blockbuster Pies prelim

www.foxsports.com.au

AFL 2025 FINALS FIXTURE

Full fixture to be revealed night of Wednesday August 27

WEEK 1 – QUALIFYING AND ELIMINATION FINALS – SEPTEMBER 4-6


Thursday September 4

First Qualifying Final

[1st] Adelaide Crows vs [4th] Collingwood (7.40pm) at Adelaide Oval

Friday September 5

Second Qualifying Final

[2nd] Geelong vs [3rd] Brisbane Lions (7.40pm) at the MCG


Saturday September 6

First Elimination Final

[5th] GWS Giants vs [8th] Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs or Gold Coast Suns (time TBC) at ENGIE Stadium

Second Elimination Final

[6th] Fremantle vs [7th] Hawthorn or Gold Coast Suns (time TBC) at Optus Stadium

WEEK 2 – SEMI FINALS – SEPTEMBER 12-13


First Semi Final: First Qualifying Final loser (Adelaide Crows or Collingwood) vs First Elimination Final winner (GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs or Gold Coast Suns)

Date and time TBC at either Adelaide Oval or the MCG

Second Semi Final: Second Qualifying Final loser (Geelong or Brisbane Lions) vs Second Elimination Final winner (Fremantle, Hawthorn or Gold Coast Suns)

Date and time TBC at either the MCG or the Gabba

 

[serial_thrilla]

AFL finals fixture 2025: Cats bound for Grand Final after Lions set up blockbuster Pies prelim

AFL finals fixture 2025: Cats bound for Grand Final after Lions set up blockbuster Pies prelim

www.foxsports.com.au

AFL 2025 FINALS FIXTURE

Full fixture to be revealed night of Wednesday August 27

WEEK 1 – QUALIFYING AND ELIMINATION FINALS – SEPTEMBER 4-6


Thursday September 4

First Qualifying Final

[1st] Adelaide Crows vs [4th] Collingwood (7.40pm) at Adelaide Oval

Friday September 5

Second Qualifying Final

[2nd] Geelong vs [3rd] Brisbane Lions (7.40pm) at the MCG


Saturday September 6

First Elimination Final

[5th] GWS Giants vs [8th] Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs or Gold Coast Suns (time TBC) at ENGIE Stadium

Second Elimination Final

[6th] Fremantle vs [7th] Hawthorn or Gold Coast Suns (time TBC) at Optus Stadium

WEEK 2 – SEMI FINALS – SEPTEMBER 12-13


First Semi Final: First Qualifying Final loser (Adelaide Crows or Collingwood) vs First Elimination Final winner (GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs or Gold Coast Suns)

Date and time TBC at either Adelaide Oval or the MCG

Second Semi Final: Second Qualifying Final loser (Geelong or Brisbane Lions) vs Second Elimination Final winner (Fremantle, Hawthorn or Gold Coast Suns)

Date and time TBC at either the MCG or the Gabba

Happy with that. When they listed the qualifying finals on Thursday and Friday I was worried we could potentially face the loser of Geelong/Brisbane with two extra days' break in the semi.

 

[The Feeder Club]

AFL finals fixture 2025: Cats bound for Grand Final after Lions set up blockbuster Pies prelim

AFL finals fixture 2025: Cats bound for Grand Final after Lions set up blockbuster Pies prelim

www.foxsports.com.au

AFL 2025 FINALS FIXTURE

Full fixture to be revealed night of Wednesday August 27

WEEK 1 – QUALIFYING AND ELIMINATION FINALS – SEPTEMBER 4-6


Thursday September 4

First Qualifying Final

[1st] Adelaide Crows vs [4th] Collingwood (7.40pm) at Adelaide Oval

Friday September 5

Second Qualifying Final

[2nd] Geelong vs [3rd] Brisbane Lions (7.40pm) at the MCG


Saturday September 6

First Elimination Final

[5th] GWS Giants vs [8th] Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs or Gold Coast Suns (time TBC) at ENGIE Stadium

Second Elimination Final

[6th] Fremantle vs [7th] Hawthorn or Gold Coast Suns (time TBC) at Optus Stadium

WEEK 2 – SEMI FINALS – SEPTEMBER 12-13


First Semi Final: First Qualifying Final loser (Adelaide Crows or Collingwood) vs First Elimination Final winner (GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs or Gold Coast Suns)

Date and time TBC at either Adelaide Oval or the MCG

Second Semi Final: Second Qualifying Final loser (Geelong or Brisbane Lions) vs Second Elimination Final winner (Fremantle, Hawthorn or Gold Coast Suns)

Date and time TBC at either the MCG or the Gabba

Yeah well they haven't thought this through, have they? So that means one of the winners of the Saturday finals will be playing on Friday the next week off a six day break.

It will either be the winner of our match, which would be 6 days vs 7 for the opponent, or even more unfair it will be the winner of the other match, which would be 6 days vs 8.

All so they can have "blockbusters" in prime tv slots. I hate this comp

 

[David Bubb]

 

[s_wd6]

Awful news for me specifically

 

[thistimeforsure]

Sure..now these figure are for only when Darcy was on English right? English’ figures don’t include his time against Jackson yeah?

Number 1 ruck vs number 1 ruck

Make any excuses you want at a stretch Darcy was OK , I’ve seen people putting him in as our best player

Fair enough I’ve never rated him so have an inherent bias towards the bloke but that works the same for people who think he’s a gun

 

[Gussman]

You can win a game and still lose percentage as it's just (points for)/(points against). If the score drags the ratio of points for/points against down, then percentage is lost.

Consider 2 games in isolation. One a blowout. 100 - 50. The percentage from this game is 200% to the winning team. Then the next game they play is close 101-100, but still a win. The new percentage is 201/150 = 134%, a decrease in percentage.

So technically it doesn't matter how many more goals GC kick, what they need to do is have a score that increases their percentage by 0.9%. That doesn't mean 30 points, but 30 points is pretty reasonable in the context of the expected score.

I got chat gpt to come up with this table for the required margins.

Sorry for the unsolicited math.

 

[BStaff17]

Got a bucks party at the races on that Saturday @ Randwick here in Sydney.

So a Saturday Night game suits me.

 

[Alfonz]

I tried to work it out on the ladder predictor but it only lets you pick the margin, not each teams score. I was basing it off other games when tracking the live ladder, when one team has scored between 40-60 the other team's goals have generally been worth about 0.3%

I made an excel spreadsheet in about 30 seconds, you could always do the same if you want to see how things change.

Now I see where you are coming from, because each goal does indeed change the percentage by roughly the amount you are saying. But you need to consider the starting percentages. For a normal sort of scoreboard, GC need to be in front by 2-3 goals just to maintain their percentage, then add your extra scores @ 0.3% per goal to bridge the gap to Hawthorn.

 

[hoss]

hes also the type of player to drop a 4 touch stinker. seriously ridiculous to bring in NOD over MJ, not a chance it happens if fit

Absolutely agree. NODs past month has been diabolical. Not sure he's straight back in on one good WAFL game. I think Johnson's game will hold up better in finals.

 

[Mags98]

Absolutely agree. NODs past month has been diabolical. Not sure he's straight back in on one good WAFL game. I think Johnson's game will hold up better in finals.

we look a much better team with stronger bodies across the park, dont want to watch NOD struggle to pick up the footy and pushed over in every contest.

 

[FreoRicci]

Adelaide Collingwood on a Thursday Night? Surely AFL aren’t that stupid. They want revenue and more eyes watching? Thursday Night should for the other elimination final or Geelong v Brisbane, given Geelong won’t get 80k at MCG.

 

[Alfonz]

I think NOD's past month has been terrible because he was pushed into the Sharp role solo. It's where our players go to die. They had been using NOD, Wagner, Johnson in some sort of rotation since Sharp was booted, but then Wagner and Johnson got injured in Rd 19 versus Collingwood, and JOM was just coming back from injury. NOD took it on by himself, usually at the top of the tracker for km covered, and did just what Sharp did.

Then on the weekend it was JOM and Wagner into the void, mixed in with some close checking roles (especially JOM on Richards), and both had very quiet games for possessions (yes, I know Wagner was subbed out, but he was quiet on the stats sheet up until then).

It's just a position in our side where the player gets very little in the way of possessions. Whether NOD or Johnson comes in, I would expect them to take on whatever Wagner was doing against the Dogs and not get much of the ball. I suspect it might be NOD as he is the one with the miles in his legs and the better WAFL performance. But I think the staff might rate Johnson higher, so I won't be surprised either way.

 

[JammoMonty]

Would like both NOD and Johnson in.
They can both play in and out.

Erasmus on the bench.

Sharp as the pure wing would be interesting.

Plus what’s the go with Banfield ? His bad is so horrific, that it results in turnovers and misjudgment. However he gets into good spots and is a battler, which I can’t say about Walker.

Banfield needs to go for Simpson imo

 

[largebus]

The fact the orange team has to beg for a certain timeslot to maximise attendance is an indictment on them.