Prediction Changes vs Brisbane

[crowsup]

Interesting to see if Vader addresses this post

I hope that Vader doesn't mind if I answer this.
If all the tackles are counted, doesn't it also seem logical that some of the tackles accredited to other players but Mackay, may also be ineffective?
So, unless someone has the actual numbers of effective V ineffective tackles, it is only an opinion that Mackay's tackles are less effective.

 

[Crow Envy]

In which case it's Seedsman or Mackay - probably Seedsman.

Why?

 

[Vader]

So how would you explain the discrepancy between his average tackles and average pressure acts? Surely someone who applies a lot of pressure would also tackle a lot

And he does... tackle a lot, that is. More than any of our small defenders, small forwards (excluding Cameron) or outside midfielders.

 

[Vader]

Why?

Last in, First out. Selections from R17 & R18 make it clear that Seedsman was the last man selected for the Essendon game, not Mackay.

Also, Mackay had a better game last week than Seedsman. Seedsman kicked 2 long goals, and did precisely nothing else for the rest of the game. Mackay contributed more overall.

 

[Vader]

I hope that Vader doesn't mind if I answer this.
If all the tackles are counted, doesn't it also seem logical that some of the tackles accredited to other players but Mackay, may also be ineffective?
So, unless someone has the actual numbers of effective V ineffective tackles, it is only an opinion that Mackay's tackles are less effective.

As far as I'm aware, only those tackles which result in a ball-up or a holding-the-ball decision are counted as "tackles". Attempted tackles, where the player being tackled is able to dispose of the ball, are not. These attempted, or "ineffective" tackles, are counted by Champion Data - but the numbers are not available to the general public.

I'm not sure how "gang tackles" are counted, where multiple players are involved in the tackle. I think they're credited to the player who first lays the tackle, but I could be wrong.

We can't know how many ineffective tackles Mackay attempts, or what ratio of his tackles are effective vs ineffective. What do know is that he averages the 7th most effective tackles of all 27 players used so far this season.

According to the stereotype, Mackay lays a high percentage of ineffective tackles. If that's the case, then he must attempt an awful lot of tackles, given the number of effective tackles that Champion Data credits him with. Effectively that's an own-goal for the anti-Mackay brigade, given that coaches love players with a strong defensive work ethic.

 

[TrainRoo32]

Here we go again.. the stereotypical response, which is 100% incorrect - and demonstrably so, given his tackle stats.

ok, so how does Champion data measure what is a tackle and what is not?

 

[Jack is Back]

According to Footystats averages for the 2016 season;

Mackay; 10.8 kicks, 8.4 handballs, 4.2 tackles, 0.2 goals,

Seedsman; 10.6 kicks, 7.4 handballs, 4.2 tackles, 0.6 goals,

Atkins; 10.7 kicks, 9.3 handballs, 1.6 tackles, 0.5 goals

This is consistent with my gut feel that Mackay and Seedsman have had a similar output (and identical tackles per game). Atkins has had a bit more of the ball but has tackled less.

You can only compare outside mids with outside mids and we have mainly used Mackay, Seedsman and Atkins as outside mids this year. Mackay and THE RAT have had short spurts as inside mids which should improve their level of disposals. Where did you find your tackle stats Vader?

 

[Vader]

ok, so how does Champion data measure what is a tackle and what is not?

Refer to my previous post.

 

[Vader]

According to Footystats averages for the 2016 season;

Mackay; 10.8 kicks, 8.4 handballs, 4.2 tackles, 0.2 goals,

Seedsman; 10.6 kicks, 7.4 handballs, 4.2 tackles, 0.6 goals,

Atkins; 10.7 kicks, 9.3 handballs, 1.6 tackles, 0.5 goals

This is consistent with my gut feel that Mackay and Seedsman have had a similar output (and identical tackles per game). Atkins has had a bit more of the ball but has tackled less.

You can only compare outside mids with outside mids and we have mainly used Mackay, Seedsman and Atkins as outside mids this year. Mackay and THE RAT have had short spurts as inside mids which should improve their level of disposals. Where did you find your tackle stats Vader?

Footywire: http://www.finalsiren.com/Fixture.asp?SeasonID=2016&TeamID=1&Sort=AverageTackles Desc#player

Agree that Seedsman's stats are almost identical to Mackay's.

I'd also add Smith & Henderson as outside mids. Smith averages 2.3 tackles per game. Henderson, a paltry 1.3.

 

[King Elvis]

Now Mackay
One reason Mackay get more game time than most think he should is versatility, He one of the few player that can play back forward and wing with pace in the side, He can go total defence and scarfice his game, play running defender, or move to bruise free wing roles play defensive forward or at times in the pass small forward, he had run as inside mid and outside mid. And there is not too many games where he play and stays in the same role. Only positions he has not played is any position with tall in it.
Sunday he was moved back deeper when Brown struggled for a while to give extra run, One thing missing when they played Geelong
Main problem is the Crows do not have too many player that are that versatile in the squad. Finding One for one with MacKay is hard.
And he can tackle But you must remember he is a light weight.
Again think about the full role before looking at who is better.

Nice post.

Wrong, but a nice post.

 

[Scorpus]

And he does... tackle a lot, that is. More than any of our small defenders, small forwards (excluding Cameron) or outside midfielders.

Yeah but that's not what I mean. This is what I mean:

Here you can see the distribution of pressure acts and tackles per player, for all players with more than 10 pressure acts per game on average.

Green lines are players with well above average tackles per pressure act. This indicates these players apply pressure usually through tackles. Red lines are below average. Black lines are bad outliers: Atkins and Henderson apply pressure but very few tackles. Henderson is atrocious in this department.

The majority of players fit somewhere between 3 and 4 pressure acts per tackle. Everyone above 13 pressure acts per game, except Mackay and Douglas, record less than 3.6 pressure acts per tackle.

 

[Vader]

Looking at those stats, I can see why Brodie Smith was named on the bench last week.
K: 13.3 (3 more than Mackay)
HB: 7.6 (1 less than Mackay)
T: 2.3 (2 less than Mackay)
G: 0.2 (same as Mackay)

Considering his reputation, his goal kicking has been absolutely awful. Mackay's hasn't been great either, but he doesn't have Smith's reputation.

Probably not unfair to include him in the same discussion as Seedsman, Mackay and Henderson. He really shouldn't be a part of that discussion (based on his talent & ability), but his form in 2016 definitely warrants it.

 

[Jack is Back]

Footywire: http://www.finalsiren.com/Fixture.asp?SeasonID=2016&TeamID=1&Sort=AverageTackles Desc#player

Agree that Seedsman's stats are almost identical to Mackay's.

I'd also add Smith & Henderson as outside mids. Smith averages 2.3 tackles per game. Henderson, a paltry 1.3.

And that's where you lose all credibility. Brodie Smith has spent a total of less than 5% of his game time as an outside mid (are you related to Mark Bickley?)

Henderson was initially played in the back six (seven) but was subsequently moved onto the wing. Brodie Smith has as much to do with this argument as Kyle Cheney or Rory Laird.

Hint; For those that are not seeing the game live, a good way to work out where players are actually playing is to check who is in the centre square at the start of each quarter and after each goals. These would be your ruckman and the inside mids. Then providing you are not watching on an iphone, check who are standing on the wings. These would be our outside midfielders. Now for the tricky bit. The five guys staning in our forward line are forwards and six of the seven guys standing in our defence are defenders. The other guy is Eddie Betts, Charlie Cameron, sometimes Dougie, sometimes Shooter. These guys are make believe defenders. They run through the centre square and then move back to the forward line. Brodie Smith occasionally lines up on the wing (a bit more often in recent weeks) but he spends most of his time as a defender.

 

[Vader]

Yeah but that's not what I mean. This is what I mean:

Here you can see the distribution of pressure acts and tackles per player, for all players with more than 10 pressure acts per game on average.

Green lines are players with above average tackles per pressure act. This indicates these players apply pressure usually through tackles. Red lines are below average. Black lines are bad outliers: Atkins and Henderson apply pressure but very few tackles. Henderson is atrocious in this department.

The majority of players fit somewhere between 3 and 4 pressure acts per tackle. Everyone above 13 pressure acts per game, except Mackay and Douglas, record less than 3.6 pressure acts per tackle.

Nice graph & pretty decent analysis.

What I get out of it though is that Mackay is applying a damn sight more pressure on the opposition than players like Seedsman, with Smith & Henderson's defensive games being close to unacceptable.

Coaches love players who put in defensively, and what you've shown here is that Mackay has that aspect of his game covered very nicely.

When you look at the left hand side of that graph, every one of those players has a really solid body. Thompson is the extreme example, but Lyons, Crouch x2, Sloane and Douglas are all very solid as well. The exception is Mackay, who is very lightly framed. For him to even feature in the left hand 1/3 of that list is exceptional.

It may well be that he has a lower percentage of effective tackles than other players. The flipside is that he applies a lot more tackles than any of the other outside mids & small forwards/defenders. I sincerely doubt that the coaches would be upset with the defensive aspect of his game.

If there is one aspect of his game which could attract valid criticism, it's his DE. At just 67.9%, he's ranked 20th of the 27 players used so far. His peers (Smith, Atkins, Seedsman, Henderson) are all in the 73-77% range, so Mackay is well behind the 8-ball in this area.

 

[Vader]

And that's where you lose all credibility. Brodie Smith has spent a total of less than 5% of his game time as an outside mid (are you related to Mark Bickley?)

Henderson was initially played in the back six (seven) but was subsequently moved onto the wing. Brodie Smith has as much to do with this argument as Kyle Cheney or Rory Laird.

Smith splits his time between the HBF and the Wing. Both are outside midfielder positions. He's had 13 scoring shots to Mackay's 12 this year. I'd say it's not unfair to include him in the conversation.

 

[Kraven]

Thread should be renamed the David Mackay debate or something

 

[Vader]

Thread should be renamed the David Mackay debate or something

It's evolving. 24 hours ago it was Wigg vs CEY.

Give it another 75 minutes and we'll have something real to discuss.

 

[Jack is Back]

Smith splits his time between the HBF and the Wing. Both are outside midfielder positions. He's had 13 scoring shots to Mackay's 12 this year. I'd say it's not unfair to include him in the conversation.

So you do watch the game on an iphone. The split is 95% defence, 5% midfield.

I know it can be confusing if you are not watching the game live and in person. Our outside mids/wingmen line up on the wing after every goal. Unlike the good old days they do not charge into the centre square to create an extra man at the stoppage. Their initial role is to inhibit the opposition if they win the stoppage or be available to receive the ball, block or shepherd if we win the ball. If the ball goes into the D50 (i.e. the opposition win the centre clearance) then the outside mids should run very quickly into defence. If there is a stoppage in the D50 the outside mids line up on the defensive side of the stoppage. This is why Mark Bickley plus plenty of people who only see the game on the tellie think Seedsman, Atkins and Mackay are playing as defenders. Just to confuse things, Seedsman has played one game as a defender.

Brodie Smith kicks goals because he is one of our two designated kickers (along with Seedsman) if a player has a mark or free outside the F50 and can not make the distance. Brodie's other goals come from receiving the ball when we slingshot it out from defence.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Sloane to be a late withdrawal Saturday, Mackay to be acting captain.

 

[Vader]

Brodie Smith kicks goals because he is one of our two designated kickers (along with Seedsman) if a player has a mark or free outside the F50 and can not make the distance. Brodie's other goals come from receiving the ball when we slingshot it out from defence.

Given his hit rate, I'd rather he wasn't one of our designated kickers...

Right.. so he gets the ball as we're slingshotting out of defence. You know, as we're moving it through the midfield?

Given the 2-way running, and the regularity with which we see all 36 players in one half of the ground, the difference between a HBF and a wingman is negligible at best.

 

[Paladin]

Last in, First out. Selections from R17 & R18 make it clear that Seedsman was the last man selected for the Essendon game, not Mackay.

Also, Mackay had a better game last week than Seedsman. Seedsman kicked 2 long goals, and did precisely nothing else for the rest of the game. Mackay contributed more overall.

This is bullshit on both counts.

Seedsman needed gametime coming back from injury thats why dmac was the travelling emergency no pecking order can be read into that.

Seedsman played a much better game against Essendon - Mackay made a woeful contribution.

Your pecking order rubbish has been wrong every game so far this year cant see you getting it right this time

 

[Scorpus]

When you look at the left hand side of that graph, every one of those players has a really solid body. Thompson is the extreme example, but Lyons, Crouch x2, Sloane and Douglas are all very solid as well. The exception is Mackay, who is very lightly framed. For him to even feature in the left hand 1/3 of that list is exceptional.

It may well be that he has a lower percentage of effective tackles than other players. The flipside is that he applies a lot more tackles than any of the other outside mids & small forwards/defenders. I sincerely doubt that the coaches would be upset with the defensive aspect of his game.

I do find it interesting that Macaky's pressure acts are high, so I actually looked up what a pressure act is. Apparently it's one of these things:

• Corralling (Opponent in the area, but only guarding space, not closing in)
• Closing (Opponent in the area and approaching the ball-carrier)
• Chasing (Opponent closing in from behind or forcing a player on the run to kick without steadying)
• Physical contact on a player that's not a tackle
• Actual tackles
• Smothers

I imagine Mackay rates highly for coralling, closing, chasing and non-tackle physical contact. In fact he would have to, as that would explain the low tackle count relative to his pressure act count. Same with Douglas.

I also discovered that contested possessions (usually a measure of how "outside" a player is) don't correspond well to pressure acts. There is no indication a player with fewer contested possessions will have fewer pressure acts. The correlation is better for tackles, but not great either.

 

[RippaRiley43]

Last in, First out. Selections from R17 & R18 make it clear that Seedsman was the last man selected for the Essendon game, not Mackay.

Also, Mackay had a better game last week than Seedsman. Seedsman kicked 2 long goals, and did precisely nothing else for the rest of the game. Mackay contributed more overall.

Explain this. Seedsman had one less disposal than Mackay, with both going in the high 70s for disposal efficiency. They both had the same amount of tackles, and Seedsman took one more mark. None of these statistics particularly favours one player over the other, unless you want to argue that Mackay's greater number of handballs were better than Seedsman's greater number of kicks.

Disregarding their scoreboard impact (two goals versus two behinds), I'd say they had a fairly even impact. But why should you disregard this fact?

 

[Vader]

Seedsman needed gametime coming back from injury thats why dmac was the travelling emergency no pecking order can be read into that.

Seedsman played a much better game against Essendon - Mackay made a woeful contribution.

You keep telling yourself that, if it helps you get to sleep at night. Neither statement is true, or even remotely close to being true, but you've convinced yourself that both are true - and nothing I can say will ever change your preconceptions.

 

[Scorpus]

This analysis has also uncovered that Seedsman and Cameron are by far the best defensive players out of our 'outside' guys. Seedsman in particular has a relatively high pressure act and tackle count for his contested possession figure. So this indicates he gets it on the outside, but applies good pressure when he has players near him.

Henderson is comparatively awful. Higher contested possessions, but much lower tackles and pressure acts.