One can wonder if there will be an effective 2020 draft at all. Lower levels of football – with less television revenue – will find it much more difficult to play games unless they can play in a prime time television slot that does not overlap with the AFL. This would either mean playing Sunday nights post-twilight, or playing all games midweek (Tuesday or Wednesday twilight), neither of which would be supported by players nor would gain the exposure young players need for effective evaluation by AFL clubs. How such a system would work for school and junior footballers I do not know.
I actually think that only the New South Wales and Queensland clubs will have their viability threatened.
The NRL is already planning to re-introduce crowds before the 2020 season is over. If the NRL succeeds and there are no COVID-19 outbreaks in New South Wales or Queensland – at present plausible – this will certainly mean 1½ NRL seasons with crowds whilst the AFL is playing behind closed doors, and more likely 2½, 3½ or even possibly 4½ such seasons. Under such a scenario, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sydney and Greater Western Sydney would likely lose their local supporters to NRL clubs, or if they do not care for rugby league to another rival sport. It is possible that, with the AFL playing semi-permanently or even permanently without crowds the NRL might reverse its recent decline in attendances. Past history shows that increasing league crowds, as observed between 1986 and 1994, are highly deleterious to the viability of AFL in those states. It was after all when the then-NSWRL was seeing its greatest growth in attendances that Brisbane and Sydney stood at their more precarious off and on the field. However, in those states where the NRL failed to establish during the Super League War, many AFL seasons without fans would have no deleterious effects if television revenue skyrockets.
I cannot see the AFL making an exemption to allow fans in interstate stadiums during subsequent seasons unless it be safe for crowds to attend in Victoria when those seasons open. This is implausible for the 2021 season, unlikely for 2022 and highly uncertain for seasons beyond 2022. Allowing fans only in areas successful at containing coronavirus would completely alter the balance of power amongst AFL clubs. West Coast and Adelaide might be handed an AFL diarchy lasting a generation or more if their stadiums can be filled with their fans at the same time as Victorian games are still played behind closed doors.
More accurately, a series of experimental games for a new way of recalibrating football to maximise absolutely the ease of televising the sport during prime time.
I have emphasised that any thought that spectators will be back in stadiums for the 2021 season is a pipedream, and it is likely just a dream that anyone outside essential personnel will be going to an AFL game in 2022. The way COVID-19 is spreading within Melbourne now, the day when AFL stadiums’ seats are again occupied could be much later than 2023 or even not occur at all.
The way COVID is spreading again in Melbourne, I do not think we will.
It was likely from one of the northwestern local government areas shaded on the map, but it is most definitely untraced community transmission. Even if we know where Conor McKenna ordinarily lives, we might not know the original source of his infection.
